Seasoned Equity Offerings and " Herd Behavior " of Earnings Management

A model to explain the dynamic characters of earnings management was developed based on the interactionamong several firms’ disclosure policies. Under the condition of incomplete information, each firm’s earnings man-agement will be influenced by the earnings disclosure policies of other firms. It can lead to "herd behavior" of earningsmanagement. This paper studies the relationship between earnings manipulation and rights issue policy based on thedistribution of earnings after management. The results indicate that Chinese listed companies trend towards controllingROE in the narrow ranges just above 6% and 10% .Therefore, "herd behavior" exists in the earnings management.

The Evidence of Institutional Investors' Herd Behavior and the Research on Market Simulation

In the context of vigorously developing China＇s securities market institutional investors in the period of economic transition, this paper does the empirical research on the herd behavior from the view of the interaction between individual and institutional investors. This paper adopts the standard deviation of trading volume the cross-section to measure herd behavior. The results show that no matter what the market is in bull status and bear status, institutional investors perform herd behavior and with the expansion of the shareholding scale in a bull market, the herd behavior is higher, which suggests that the vigorous development of institutional investors has not eliminated herd behavior. This paper further confirms that there is the endogenous volatility in the market based on an artificial stock market. Finally it is demonstrated the herd behavior of institutional investors cause abnormal fluctuations in the market.

Financial literacy,behavioral traits,and ePayment adoption and usage in Japan

This study investigates how financial literacy and behavioral traits affect the adoption of electronic payment(ePayment)services in Japan.We construct a financial literacy index using a representative sample of 25,000 individuals from the Bank of Japan’s 2019 Financial Literacy Survey.We then analyze the relationship between this index and the extensive and intensive usage of two types of payment services:electronic money(e-money)and mobile payment apps.Using an instrumental variable approach,we find that higher financial literacy is positively associated with a higher likelihood of adopting ePayment services.The empirical results suggest that individuals with higher financial literacy use payment services more frequently.We also find that risk-averse people are less likely to adopt and use ePayment services,whereas people with herd behavior tend to adopt and use ePayment services more.Our empirical results also suggest that the effects of financial literacy on the adoption and use of ePayment differ among people with different behavioral traits.

Herding behavior in Ramadan and financial crises: the case of the Pakistani stock market

This study examines herding behavior in the Pakistani Stock Market under different market conditions,focusing on the Ramadan effect and Crisis period by using data from 2004 to 2014.Two regression models of Christie and Huang(Financ Analysts J 51:31-37,1995)and Chang et al.,(J Bank Finance 24:1651-1679,2000)are used for herding estimations.Results based on daily stock data reveal that there is an absence of herding behavior during rising(up)and falling(down)market as well as during high and low volatility in market.While herding behavior is detected during low trading volume days.Yearly analysis shows that herding existed during 2005,2006 and 2007,while it is not evident during rest of the period.However,herding behavior is not detected during Ramadan.Furthermore,during financial crisis of 2007-08,Pakistani Stock Market exhibits herding behavior due to higher uncertainty and information asymmetry.

Modeling the Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Mutual Funds’Herd Behavior

Herd behavior in financial markets often leads to unjustified macroscopic phenomena.However,despite existing studies on modeling herd behavior,how it varies across individual agents and over time remains unclear.We show that herd behavior in mutual fund companies can be understood from the functional networks representing interactions inferred from investment similarities.Specifically,in this paper,the spatial characteristics of herd behavior stand for the topology relationships of observations in networks.We analyze the collective dynamics of mutual fund investment from 2003 to 2019 in China using the language of network science and show that herding behavior accompanies this industry's development but dwindles after the 2015 Chinese market crash.By integrating community detection analysis,we found an increased degree of coherence in the collective herding behavior of the system,even though the localization of herding behavior decreases for clusters of mutual fund companies when the systemic risk builds up.Further analysis showed that herding behavior impacts the payoff of individual fund companies differently across years.The spatial-temporal changes of herding behavior between mutual funds presented in this paper shed light on the debate of individual versus systemic risk and,thus,could interest regulators and investors.

连续竞价拍卖中羊群行为的驱动机理与逆向选择——基于阿里司法拍卖样本的实证研究

本文聚焦于在线拍卖的竞价行为,通过引入关联价值定义,深入研究了在线拍卖市场中理性与非理性羊群行为的微观发生机制,并运用变量加总的循环推导分析方法,构造出拍品在网络拍卖中的市场需求曲线,分解出羊群行为在资源配置中的规模效应与结构效应。研究发现,羊群行为不仅会提高拍品成交价格,更会对高质量买家产生一定的挤出效应。依据理论分析结果,以阿里司法拍卖实际竞价数据为样本的实证研究表明,连续竞价拍卖中的羊群行为具有一定的内生性,难以完全规避,而且羊群行为会导致在线拍卖市场出现一定的逆向选择问题。因此,要想做大做强中国在线拍卖市场,必须加大对羊群行为的监测、评估和治理,相关部门积极引导网拍平台发挥大数据优势,通过完善信用机制提高在线拍卖市场的有效竞争水平。

基于从众人工蜂群算法的产品定价研究

预售阶段产品扩散和口碑传播具有不确定性,难以分析口碑以及扩散对企业定价决策的影响,鉴于此构建了扩散效应下的产品定价模型和双口碑效应下的产品定价模型。同时,针对现有人工蜂群算法收敛速度慢且对于定价问题的求解匹配度较低等问题,提出了一种从众人工蜂群算法求解上述模型。该算法在邻域搜索解时,根据安全位置展开安全邻域搜索,提高搜索能力和多样性。实验表明:改进后的人工蜂群算法在寻优过程迭代更快,可求解得到企业在预售阶段和销售阶段的最优定价策略,保障企业在大型活动中获得最大利润。

机构投资者羊群行为对上市公司股价同步性的影响

为探析资本市场上的机构投资者羊群行为类型及其对上市公司股价同步性的影响机制,采用2013—2023年沪深A股中企业个股年度数据,从信息竞争理论和类似策略理论角度进行探讨,并从信息获取可观测角度对机构投资者买入羊群行为和卖出羊群行为对上市公司股价同步性及信息获取的调节机制进行检验。根据实证结果,发现我国的机构投资者羊群行为是“伪羊群行为”,这将降低市场股价同步性,且在买入方向上表现得尤为突出;机构投资者的信息获取在机构投资者羊群行为与上市公司股价同步性中存在逆向调节作用,其中,卖出羊群行为对上市公司股价同步性的逆向调节作用更加明显。

企业社会责任的行业趋同现象研究——基于“羊群效应”与“同伴效应”对比视角

企业社会责任的行业趋同现象是“羊群效应”还是“同伴效应”?文章采用2010—2019年中国A股上市企业数据,对企业社会责任行业趋同现象进行了研究。研究发现,企业社会责任的行业趋同现象是具有社会乘数效应属性的同伴效应,而非羊群效应。同时,企业社会责任的行业趋同能够促进企业价值的提升,进一步验证了同伴效应的存在性。进一步研究表明,该同伴效应在企业社会责任的评价指标层面的显著性存在差异。拓展性分析表明,行业领导者和行业追随者在不同的企业优势特征方面对同伴企业社会责任的反应有所不同。此外,同伴效应在非重污染行业、市场竞争程度较低的行业及东部地区中更显著。

基于从众行为和移情关系的区间直觉模糊多属性群决策

在现实群决策中,决策者常因信息不完全或社会排斥风险而表现出从众行为,同时通过情感移情效应感知他人情感,并将其观点纳入决策之中。但目前群决策研究鲜少考虑从众行为与移情关系的因素。为了拓展群决策的研究范畴和应用领域,提出一种多属性群决策方法,揭示了从众行为和移情关系对群决策的影响规律。首先,构建一个序贯决策分析框架,有效表达决策者从众行为对群决策的影响机制。随后,引入移情网络,对决策者的移情关系、感召力和知识能力三方面信息进行界定,进而探讨这些因素在决策过程中的作用效果。评估阶段的从众关系综合考虑了移情关系、感召力和知识能力;集结阶段的决策者权重受到感召力的影响,而时间点权重则由知识能力决定;在共识阶段,利用移情关系提出意见调整建议。最后通过实例研究说明,所提方法能够取得可靠且稳定的结果,并且相较于传统群决策方法,能更为高效地达成群体共识。

考虑性格差异性的恐慌人员疏散模型研究

为探究性格差异造成的不同恐慌情绪对人员疏散进程的影响,将“OCEAN大五人格模型”与元胞自动机模型相耦合,构建性格差异化恐慌情绪的人员疏散运动模型。该模型量化分析了性格差异特征对恐慌情绪传播的影响机制,同时综合考虑恐慌情绪对行人运动速度的影响。基于所构建的模型对疏散人群中不同性格的恐慌情绪进行模拟,研究结果表明:行人个性特征中的开放性(O)、尽责性(C)和外向性(E)值较高或宜人性(A)和神经质性(N)值较低时,人群平均恐慌值会增加;性格差异化行人特征值初始比例分布的不同会影响疏散人群的疏散效率;行人的平均恐慌值和疏散时间会随着人群密度的增加而增加。

相互作用herding模型的非线性行为和动力学特性

相互作用herding模型定性上能很好地呈现一些真实的经济规律,但定量上与真实的市场还有一定的距离,特别是收益绝对值的自关联衰退得太快.通过数值模拟研究发现该模型在它的参数取某些特定值时具有特有的非线性行为和动力学特性.此时,它不仅重现该模型原有的动力学特性,并能展现出更接近真实的市场规律,其中收益绝对值表现出长程关联,呈现出幂指数分布,它的幂明显变小,落在真实的市场规律范围内.

信息瀑布和连接强度视角下从众信息转发行为感知差异比较研究

[目的/意义]旨在探索从众信息转发行为的感知影响因素,为有效引导用户从众信息转发行为、规范社会化媒体信息传播秩序提出建议。[研究设计/方法]基于信息瀑布和连接强度理论,以个体感知差异为切入点,使用问卷调查法搜集有效样本数据352份。采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型方法进行量表有效性检验,利用独立样本T检验、单因素方差分析和双因素方差分析进行数据分析。[结论/发现]社会化媒体用户因个体差异而对强连接、弱连接、无连接、从众信息转发行为等变量的感知存在显著影响。不同类型连接强度水平越高,用户对从众信息转发行为感知程度越高。用户个体差异与从众信息转发行为之间的关系因连接强度程度不同而存在不同程度影响,强连接与性别、弱连接与学科对从众信息转发行为具有显著的交互作用。[创新/价值]为从众行为和信息转发行为研究提供新的理论视角,以丰富和深化从众行为和信息转发行为领域的已有研究。

基于超图的在线社交网络信息传播模型研究

本研究考虑在线社交网络中成对好友关系和虚拟社群群友关系,采用超图刻画网络拓扑结构。通过对用户转发与评论等行为的分析划分个体状态,根据社会作用力理论定义个体状态转换规则,进而改进SIR(susceptible-infected-removal)信息传播模型。结合基于超图的网络拓扑结构和改进的SIR模型构建在线社交网络信息传播模型,使用NetLogo软件对提出的模型进行模拟仿真,并分析社群结构等因素对传播结果的影响。仿真结果表明,基于超图的网络能够很好地契合在线社交网络拓扑结构,社群结构、社交网络活跃度及信息老化速度等因素对信息传播过程有显著影响。

考虑视野范围模糊性的从众疏散模型

为了提高疏散模拟的真实性,针对行人视野范围模糊性的特点,应用膨胀-连通域算法建立一种视野范围动态变化模型,分析不同人员数量、熟悉环境人数占比下从众行为对疏散时间的影响。结果表明:从众行为对疏散时间的影响具有两面性。人数较少情况下,从众行为可减少行人随机移动,减少疏散时间;人数较多但熟悉环境行人占比较少时,盲目从众容易导致行人受群体错误方向影响偏离出口,增加疏散时间。视野范围动态变化模型较固定值模型的从众群体现象特征更明显。

房地产市场羊群行为分析

如何降低和化解房地产市场的风险,确保房地产市场平稳发展,受到了各界的关注。本文运用CSAD模型对我国房地产市场中投资者羊群行为的存在性及差异性进行检验,发现我国房地产市场参与者普遍存在着羊群行为,其中人均GDP值越高的城市,羊群行为越为严重。同时,本文基于消费者购房心理对我国高发展程度地区房地产市场普遍存在羊群效应这一现象作出解释。最后本文从市场信息透明度、政府政策调控力度、市场监管全面程度、教育资源配置合理程度、投资者投资理念五个角度对如何促进房地产市场的平稳健康发展提出建议。

食饵具有Allee效应和集群行为的捕食者-食饵系统动力学行为分析

该文考虑了食饵具有Allee效应和一般集群行为的捕食者-食饵模型.文中分析了一定初值条件下种群数量的长时间性态.利用线性稳定性理论讨论了平衡点的局部稳定性,在正平衡点稳定的情况下,讨论了食饵集群行为对捕食者与食饵数量的影响.其次用分支理论给出了系统跨临界分支和Hopf分支存在的条件,利用计算第一Lyapunov系数分析了Hopf分支的方向.最后通过数值模拟验证了结论的可行性.

Effects of herding behavior of tradable green certificate market players on market efficiency:insights from heterogeneous agent model

Tradable green certificate(TGC)scheme promotes the development of renewable energy industry which currently has a dual effect on economy and environment.TGC market efficiency is reflected in stimulating renewable energy investment,but may be reduced by the herding behavior of market players.This paper proposes and simulates an artificial TGC market model which contains heterogeneous agents,communication structure,and regulatory rules to explore the characteristics of herding behavior and its effects on market efficiency.The results show that the evolution of herding behavior reduces information asymmetry and improves market efficiency,especially when the borrowing is allowed.In addition,the fundamental strategy is diffused by herding evolution,but TGC market efficiency may be remarkably reduced by herding with borrowing mechanism.Moreover,the herding behavior may evolve to an equilibrium where the revenue of market players is comparable,thus the fairness in TGC market is improved.

金融科技背景下P2P网贷平台:进展与展望

P2P网贷平台由于门槛低、便捷、收益高等特点在过去十年获得迅速发展,但同时由于高风险、不易监管等特征在近几年又逐渐回落,引起较大关注。在金融科技、互联网金融的新背景下,P2P平台又受到什么样的影响,是个值得探讨的话题。论文首先从硬信息、软信息、羊群行为三个方面总结了信息不对称对P2P平台的影响;其次以风险控制与相对于银行的中介功能两个角度为切入点,关注金融科技对P2P平台的影响;最后就金融科技对未来P2P网贷形式的转换以及创新发展进行展望,以期为进一步开展相关研究提供参考。

自我控制与初中生网络攻击行为的关系:从众心理的中介作用

目的:探究初中生自我控制、从众心理与网络攻击行为间的关系及作用机制.方法:应用《自我控制问卷》《中学生从众程度量表》《少年网络攻击行为量表》对随机抽取的400名初中生开展调查.结果:(1)自我控制各因子与网络攻击行为显著相关(r=0.207~0.850,p<0.01),自我控制与从众心理在各因子上显著相关(r=0.384~0.448,p<0.01),网络攻击行为各因子与从众心理显著相关(r=0.285~0.362,p<0.01);(2)冲动冒险性显著正向预测从众总分(β=0.251,p<0.01),自我情绪性能够正向预测从众总分(β=0.191,p<0.05),从众总分显著正向预测外显攻击行为(β=0.217,p<0.01)与关系攻击行为(β=0.293,p<0.01),简单化倾向显著正向预测外显攻击行为(β=0.436,p<0.01)与关系攻击行为(β=0.538,p<0.01);(3)从众心理在自我控制与网络攻击行为间起部分中介作用.结论:自我控制不仅直接预测初中生的网络攻击行为,而且也通过从众心理间接影响初中生的网络攻击行为.