An Intrusion Detection Method Based on Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models

This paper presents an anomaly detection approach to detect intrusions into computer systems. In this approach, a hierarchical hidden Markov model （HHMM） is used to represent a temporal profile of normal behavior in a computer system. The HHMM of the norm profile is learned from historic data of the system＇s normal behavior. The observed behavior of the system is analyzed to infer the probability that the HHMM of the norm profile supports the observed behavior. A low probability of support indicates an anomalous behavior that may result from intrusive activities. The model was implemented and tested on the UNIX system call sequences collected by the University of New Mexico group. The testing results showed that the model can clearly identify the anomaly activities and has a better performance than hidden Markov model.

Bayesian partial pooling to reduce uncertainty in overcoring rock stress estimation

The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.

A Hierarchical Model Architecture for Enterprise Integration in Chemical Industries

Towards integration of supply chain, manufacturing/production and investment decision making, this paper presents a hierarchical model architecture which contains six sub-models covering the areas of manufacturing control, production operation, design and revamp, production management, supply chain and investment decision making. Six types of flow, material, energy, information, humanware, partsware and capital are clasified. These flows connect enterprise components/subsystems to formulate system topology and logical structure. Enterprise components/subsystems are abstracted to generic elementary and composite classes. Finally, the model architecture is applied to a management system of an integrated suply chain, and suggestion are made on the usage of the model architecture and further development of the model as well as implementation issues.

Optimal Credibility Estimation of Random Parameters in Hierarchical Random Effect Linear Model

In the hierarchical random effect linear model, the Bayes estimator of random parameter are not only dependent on specific prior distribution but also it is difficult to calculate in most cases. This paper derives the distributed-free optimal linear estimator of random parameters in the model by means of the credibility theory method. The estimators the authors derive can be applied in more extensive practical scenarios since they are only dependent on the first two moments of prior parameter rather than on specific prior distribution. Finally, the results are compared with some classical models and a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the estimators.

Online hierarchical recognition method for target tactical intention in beyond-visual-range air combat

Online accurate recognition of target tactical intention in beyond-visual-range (BVR) air combat is an important basis for deep situational awareness and autonomous air combat decision-making, which can create pre-emptive tactical opportunities for the fighter to gain air superiority. The existing methods to solve this problem have some defects such as dependence on empirical knowledge, difficulty in interpreting the recognition results, and inability to meet the requirements of actual air combat. So an online hierarchical recognition method for target tactical intention in BVR air combat based on cascaded support vector machine (CSVM) is proposed in this study. Through the mechanism analysis of BVR air combat, the instantaneous and cumulative feature information of target trajectory and relative situation information are introduced successively using online automatic decomposition of target trajectory and hierarchical progression. Then the hierarchical recognition model from target maneuver element, tactical maneuver to tactical intention is constructed. The CSVM algorithm is designed for solving this model, and the computational complexity is decomposed by the cascaded structure to overcome the problems of convergence and timeliness when the dimensions and number of training samples are large. Meanwhile, the recognition result of each layer can be used to support the composition analysis and interpretation of target tactical intention. The simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively realize multi-dimensional online accurate recognition of target tactical intention in BVR air combat.

Strategic games on a hierarchical network model

Among complex network models,the hierarchical network model is the one most close to such real networks as world trade web,metabolic network,WWW,actor network,and so on.It has not only the property of power-law degree distribution,but also the scaling clustering coefficient property which Barabási-Albert(BA)model does not have.BA model is a model of network growth based on growth and preferential attachment,showing the scale-free degree distribution property.In this paper,we study the evolution of cooperation on a hierarchical network model,adopting the prisoner's dilemma(PD)game and snowdrift game(SG)as metaphors of the interplay between connected nodes.BA model provides a unifying framework for the emergence of cooperation.But interestingly,we found that on hierarchical model,there is no sign of cooperation for PD game,while the fre-quency of cooperation decreases as the common benefit decreases for SG.By comparing the scaling clustering coefficient prop-erties of the hierarchical network model with that of BA model,we found that the former amplifies the effect of hubs.Considering different performances of PD game and SG on complex network,we also found that common benefit leads to cooperation in the evolution.Thus our study may shed light on the emergence of cooperation in both natural and social environments.

Local and regional flood frequency analysis based on hierarchical Bayesian model in Dongting Lake Basin,China

This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.

Hierarchical closed form solutions for plates bent by localized transverse loadings

3D and 2D closed form plate models are here applied to static analysis of simply supported square isotropic plates. 2D theories are hierarchically classified on the basis of the accuracy of the displacements and stresses obtained by comparison to the 3D exact results that could be assumed by the reader as benchmark for further analyses. Attention is mainly paid on localized loading conditions, that is, piecewise constant load. Also bi-sinusoidal and uniformly distributed loadings are taken into account. All of those configurations are considered in order to investigate the behavior of the 2D models in the case of continu- ous/uncontinuous, centric or off-centric loading conditions. The ratio between the side length a and the plate thickness h has been assumed as analysis parameter. Higher order 2D models yield accurate results for any considered load condition in the case of moderately thick plates, a/h=10. In the case of thick plates, a/h=5, and continuous/uncontinuous centric loading conditions high accuracy is also obtained. For the considered off-centric load condition and thick plates good results are provided for some output quantities. A better solution could be achieved by simply increasing the polynomial approximation order of the axiomatic 2D displacement field.

Modeling and Analyzing Web Application with Aspect-Oriented Hierarchical Coloured Petri Nets

Aspect-oriented modeling can uncover potential design faults, yet most existing work fails to achieve both separation and composition in a natural and succinct way. This study presents an aspect-oriented modeling and analysis approach with hierarchical Coloured Petri Nets(HCPN). HCPN has sub-models and well-defined semantics combining a set of submodels. These two characteristics of HCPN are nicely integrated into aspect oriented modeling. Submodels are used to model aspects while the combination mechanism contributes to aspects weaving. Furthermore, the woven aspect oriented HCPN model can be simulated and analyzed by the CPN Tools. A systematic web application case study is conducted. The results show the system original properties are satisfied after weaving aspects and all design flaws are revealed. As such, the approach can support web application design and analysis in an aspect-oriented fashion concisely and effectively.

Comparing of Aviation Network Structure of Mid-south,Northwest and Southwest of China Based on Hierarchical Index Model

In order to compare the aviation network of mid-south,northwest and southwest of China to reveal the structure similarity and difference for providing quantitative evidence to construct regional aviation network and improve its structure,hierarchical index model of regional aviation network was established through dividing the aviation network into layers to research its structure characters.Data matrixes were defined to record the basic state of regional aviation network.Index matrixes were constructed to describe the quantitative features of regional aviation network.On the basis of these indexes,several structure indexes of all layers of aviation network were calculated to show the structure features of aviation network,such as ratio of passenger volume within the region with across the region,share rate of passenger volume among layers,ratio of average number of airline for each airport,ratio of average passenger volume for each airline and ratio of airline rate.According to the statistical data,similar structure of share rate of passenger volume among layers and average passenger volume for each airline in their regional aviation network was found after calculating.But on the side of ratio of passenger volume within the region with across the region,ratio of average number of airlines for each airport and ratio of airline rate were different.

Differentiated digital library evaluation in a hierarchical model stemming from its operational scope and complexity

Digital libraries are complex systems and this brings difficulties for their evaluation. This paper proposes a hierarchical model to solve this problem, and puts the entangled matters into a clear-layered structure. Firstly, digital libraries(DLs thereafter)are classified into 5 groups in ascending gradations, i.e. mini DLs, small DLs, medium DLs,large DLs, and huge DLs by their scope of operation. Then, according to the characteristics of DLs at different operational scope and level of sophistication, they are further grouped into unitary DLs, union DLs and hybrid DLs accordingly. Based on this simulated structure,a hierarchical model for digital library evaluation is introduced, which evaluates DLs differentiatingly within a hierarchical scheme by using varying criteria based on their specific level of operational complexity such as at the micro-level, medium-level, and/or at the macro-level. Based on our careful examination and analysis of the current literature about DL evaluation system, an experiment is conducted by using the DL evaluation model along with its criteria for unitary DLs at micro-level. The main contents resulting from this evaluation experimentation and also those evaluation indicators and relevant issues of major concerns for DLs at medium-level and macro-level are also to be presented at some length.

Hierarchical Evolutionary Algorithms and Its Application in Transonic Airfoil Optimization in Aerodynamics

Hierarchical evolutionary algorithms based on genetic algorithms (GAs) and Nash strategy of game theory are proposed to accelerate the optimization process and implemented in transonic aerodynamic shape optimization problems Inspired from the natural evolution history that different periods with certain environments have different criteria for the evaluations of individuals’ fitness, a hierarchical fidelity model is introduced to reach high optimization efficiency The shape of an NACA0012 based airfoil is optimized in maximizing the lift coefficient under a given transonic flow condition Optimized results are presented and compared with the single model results and traditional GA

Research and application of hierarchical model for multiple fault diagnosis

Computational complexity of complex system multiple fault diagnosis is a puzzle at all times. Based on the well known Mozetic＇s approach, a novel hierarchical model-based diagnosis methodology is put forward for improving efficency of multi-fault recognition and localization. Structural abstraction and weighted fault propagation graphs are combined to build diagnosis model. The graphs have weighted arcs with fault propagation probabilities and propagation strength. For solving the problem of coupled faults, two diagnosis strategies are used： one is the Lagrangian relaxation and the primal heuristic algorithms; another is the method of propagation strength. Finally, an applied example shows the applicability of the approach and experimental results are given to show the superiority of the presented technique.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Second-hand Housing Prices in Beijing based on Hierarchical Linear Model

In recent years,housing prices have attracted widespread attention,and the fluctuation of housing prices is due to a combination of many factors.In addition to the characteristics of the house itself,the price of a house is also affected by other factors,such as the community in which the house is located.This article used Beijing’s 2017 second-hand housing transaction data (based on second-hand housing transaction records on Lianjia.com),introduced a hierarchical linear model,and employed Stata software to analyze from different levels.It is intended to find the correlation between housing prices and different levels of characteristics,so to pin down the factors that affect prices of the second-hand housing.

Advanced Hierarchical Fuzzy Classification Model Adopting Symbiosis Based DNA-ABC Optimization Algorithm

This paper offers a symbiosis based hybrid modified DNA-ABC optimization algorithm which combines modified DNA concepts and artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm to aid hierarchical fuzzy classification. According to literature, the ABC algorithm is traditionally applied to constrained and unconstrained problems, but is combined with modified DNA concepts and implemented for fuzzy classification in this present research. Moreover, from the best of our knowledge, previous research on the ABC algorithm has not combined it with DNA computing for hierarchical fuzzy classification to explore the merits of cooperative coevolution. Therefore, this paper is the first to apply the mechanism of symbiosis to create a hybrid modified DNA-ABC algorithm for hierarchical fuzzy classification applications. In this study, the partition number and the shape of the membership function are extracted by the symbiosis based hybrid modified DNA-ABC optimization algorithm, which provides both sufficient global exploration and also adequate local exploitation for hierarchical fuzzy classification. The proposed optimization algorithm is applied on five benchmark University of Irvine (UCI) data sets, and the results prove the efficiency of the algorithm.

Energy consumption hierarchical analysis based on interpretative structural model for ethylene production

Interpretative structural model(ISM) can transform a multivariate problem into several sub-variable problems to analyze a complex industrial structure in a more efficient way by building a multi-level hierarchical structure model. To build an ISM of a production system, the partial correlation coefficient method is proposed to obtain the adjacency matrix, which can be transformed to ISM. According to estimation of correlation coefficient, the result can give actual variable correlations and eliminate effects of intermediate variables. Furthermore, this paper proposes an effective approach using ISM to analyze the main factors and basic mechanisms that affect the energy consumption in an ethylene production system. The case study shows that the proposed energy consumption analysis method is valid and efficient in improvement of energy efficiency in ethylene production.

A Hierarchical Modeling and Fault Diagnosis Method for Complex Electronic Devices

Due to the shortcomings of the diagnosis systems for complex electronic devices such as failure models hard to build and low fault isolation resolution, a new hierarchical modeling and diagnosis method is proposed based on multisignal model and support vector machine （SVM）. Multisignal model is used to describe the failure propagation relationship in electronic device system, and the most probable failure printed circuit boards （PCBs） can be found by Bayes inference. The exact failure modes in the PCBs can be identified by SVM. The results show the proposed modeling and diagnosis method is effective and suitable for diagnosis for complex electronic devices.

Structure Evolution of China Aviation Network Based on Hierarchical Model

The annual passenger volume of airport reflected its passenger transport scale and the role in aviation network.The airports in whole country were divided into three layers:first layer airports,second layer airports and third layer airports.The airlines from the first layer airports consisted the first layer aviation network.The airlines from the second layer airports consisted the second layer aviation network.The airlines from the third layer airports consisted the third layer aviation network.The structure and function of different layer aviation network had significant differences.These differences were shown in the number of airlines,average number of airlines of each airport,annual passenger volume of airport and average passenger volume of each airline.National aviation network hierarchical model was constructed to describe the whole country aviation network.The matrix was built to describe the airline number,annual passenger volume,average number of airlines,average passenger volume of each airport and airline rate of aviation network.The index of national aviation network structure was constructed to show the ratio of index between different aviation network layer to describe the aviation network structure.The structure index was built to illustrate the macrostructural features of national aviation network.The statistics data in year 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 of China aviation network were analyzed and basic data matrixes,basic index matrixes and structure index matrixes were calculated.The trend of ratio of corresponding index between the first layer and the second layer showed the change of basic structure of China aviation network.At meantime,the tendency of ratio of corresponding index between the third layer and the second layer also showed the change of basic structure.The trend of network general structure index illustrated that the large scaled new airports and airlines construction had significant influence on the national aviation network structure.

Neighborhood Effects and Political Trust: A Multi-level Analysis of Chinese Rural-to-Urban Migrants’ Trust in County Government

Massive rural-to-urban migration in China is consequential for political trust: rural-to-urban migrants have been found to hold lower levels of trust in local government than their rural peers who choose to stay in the countryside (mean 4.92 and 6.34 out of 10, respectively, p < 0.001). This article explores why migrants have a certain level of political trust in their county-level government. Using data of rural-to-urban migrants from the China Family Panel Survey, this study performs a hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to unpack the multi-level explanatory factors of rural-to-urban migrants’ political trust. Findings show that the individual-level socio-economic characteristics and perceptions of government performance (Level-1), the neighborhood-level characteristics-the physical and social status and environment of neighborhoods (Level-2), and the objective macroeconomic performance of county-level government (Level-3), work together to explain migrants’ trust levels. These results suggest that considering the effects of neighborhood-level factors on rural-to-urban migrants’ political trust merits policy and public management attention in rapidly urbanizing countries.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for the inference between metal grade with reduced variance:Case studies in porphyry Cu deposits

Ore sorting is a preconcentration technology and can dramatically reduce energy and water usage to improve the sustainability and profitability of a mining operation.In porphyry Cu deposits,Cu is the primary target,with ores usually containing secondary‘pay’metals such as Au,Mo and gangue elements such as Fe and As.Due to sensing technology limitations,secondary and deleterious materials vary in correlation type and strength with Cu but cannot be detected simultaneously via magnetic resonance(MR)ore sorting.Inferring the relationships between Cu and other elemental abundances is particularly critical for mineral processing.The variations in metal grade relationships occur due to the transition into different geological domains.This raises two questions-how to define these geological domains and how the metal grade relationship is influenced by these geological domains.In this paper,linear relationship is assumed between Cu grade and other metal grades.We applies a Bayesian hierarchical(partial-pooling)model to quantify the linear relationships between Cu,Au,and Fe grades from geochemical bore core data.The hierarchical model was compared with two other models-‘complete-pooling’model and‘nopooling’model.Mining blocks were split based on spatial domain to construct hierarchical model.Geochemical bore core data records metal grades measured from laboratory assay with spatial coordinates of sample location.Two case studies from different porphyry Cu deposits were used to evaluate the performance of the hierarchical model.Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)was used to sample the posterior parameters.Our results show that the Bayesian hierarchical model dramatically reduced the posterior predictive variance for metal grades regression compared to the no-pooling model.In addition,the posterior inference in the hierarchical model is insensitive to the choice of prior.The data is wellrepresented in the posterior which indicates a robust model.The results show that the spatial domain can be successfully utilised for metal grade regression.Uncertainty in estimating the relationship between pay metals and both secondary and gangue elements is quantified and shown to be reduced with partial-pooling.Thus,the proposed Bayesian hierarchical model can offer a reliable and stable way to monitor the relationship between metal grades for ore sorting and other mineral processing options.