Steric Sea Level Change in Twentieth Century Historical Climate Simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 Scenario Projection: A Comparison of Two Versions of FGOALS Model

To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP＇s Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCPS.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCPS.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS （FGOALS-s2） and the second grid-point version of FGOALS （FGOALS-g2）, respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 （FGOALS-g2） are largely attributed to the thermosteric （halosteric） component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCPS.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

Historical climate changes in southern Xinjiang

Based on the synthetic researches of multi-index geologic records of Niya section, which are of high resolution in southern margin of the Tarim Basin, together with other geologic records in southern Xinjiang, this paper has reconstructed the history of paleoclimatic changes in this region since about 4.00 ka BP. During the last 4.00 ka, the region of southern Xinjiang has experienced alternations of relative cold-wet and relative warm-dry periods. Three remarkable cold-wet periods (4.00-3.45 ka BP., 2.50-1.90 ka BP., ca.1.40-1.00 ka BP.) and three warm-dry periods (3.45-2.50 ka BP., 1.90-1.40 ka BP., 1.00 ka BP.-present) are identified. It is shown that human activities have an intimate relation with the evolution of paleoclimate in southern Xinjiang.

Response of Atmospheric Energy to Historical Climate Change in CMIP5

Three forms of atmospheric energy, i.e., internal, potential, and latent, are analyzed based on the historical simulations of 32 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5） models and two reanalysis datasets（NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40）. The spatial pattern of climatological mean atmospheric energy is well reproduced by all CMIP5 models. The variation of globally averaged atmospheric energy is similar to that of surface air temperature（SAT） for most models. The atmospheric energy from both simulation and reanalysis decreases following the volcanic eruption in low-latitude zones. Generally, the climatological mean of simulated atmospheric energy from most models is close to that obtained from NCEP/NCAR, while the simulated atmospheric energy trend is close to that obtained from ERA-40. Under a certain variation of SAT, the simulated global latent energy has the largest increase ratio, and the increase ratio of potential energy is the smallest.

Global patterns and ecological drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism in angiosperm genera

Endemism of lineages lies at the core of understanding variation in community composition among geographic regions because it reflects how speciation,extinction,and dispersal have influenced current distributions.Here,we investigated geographic patterns and ecological drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism of angiosperm genera across the world.We identify centers of paleo-endemism and neo-endemism of angiosperm genera,and show that they are mostly located in the Southern Hemisphere in tropical and subtropical regions,particularly in Asia and Australia.Different categories of phylogenetic endemism centers can be differentiated using current climate conditions.Current climate,historical climate change,and geographic variables together explained~80%of global variation in taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism,while 42-46%,1%,and 15%were independently explained by these three types of variables,respectively.Thus our findings show that past climate change,current climate,and geography act together in shaping endemism,which are consistent with the findings of previous studies that higher temperature and topographic heterogeneity promote endemism.Our study showed that many centers of phylogenetic endemism of angiosperms,including regions in Amazonia,Venezuela,and west-central tropical Africa that have not previously been identified as biodiversity hotspots,are missed by taxon-based measures of endemism,indicating the importance of including evolutionary history in biodiversity assessment.

Recent Progress in Studies on Land Cover Change and Its Regional Climatic Effects over China during Historical Times

The recent progresses on the reconstruction of historical land cover and the studies on regional climatic effects to temperature, precipitation, and the East Asian Monsoon across China were reviewed. Findings show that the land cover in China has been significantly modified by human activities over the last several thousands years, mainly through cropland expansion and forest clearance. The cropland over traditional Chinese agricultural areas increased from 5.32×10^5 km^2 in the mid-17th century to 8.27×10^5 km^2 in the mid-20th century, while the forest area over the Chinese mainland had been reduced by 1.66×10^6 km^2 during the last 300 years. These changes of land cover have been detected as an important driving force of climate change by simulations of climatic effects based on various climate models （including RegCM3, RegCM2-NCC, RIEMS version1, MM5 version 2, and AGCM＋SSiB） with reconstructed historical land cover data or by contrasting current land cover to potential natural vegetation. The human-induced land cover changes over China have led to the enhancement of the East Asian winter monsoon, as well as cooling in winter and warming in summer approximately since 1700. However, the simulation results on annual mean temperature, precipitation, and the East Asian summer monsoon varied from model to model, which cannot be simply attributed to certain forcing so far, but undoubtedly, using different land cover datasets in various simulations played a key role. Thus, developing different regional scales with high time resolution more accurate gridded historical land cover datasets on is needed in the future.

Wet-dry changes in the borderland of Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia from 1208 to 1369 based on historical records

More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought （F/D） index obtained from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region （BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan＇anlu in the Yuan Dynasty） was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208-1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters, the whole period could be divided into three phases. （1） 1208-1240： drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters. （2） 1240-1320： long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. （3） 1320-1369： drought disasters were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed obvious transition and periodicity in the MongoI-Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic change, might have profound impacts on local vegetation and socio-economic system.

Test Calibration of the Paleoclimatic Proxy Data with Chinese Historical Records

The calibration of paleoclimate proxies is one of the key problems in the study of paleoclimate at present. Historical documentary records of climate are suitable for calibration on dating and the climatic implication of the proxy data in a climatological sense. A test calibration on correcting the Delingha tree ring precipitation series using Chinese historical documentary records shows that among the 44 extreme dry cases in 1401 1950 AD, 42 cases （or 95.5%） are believable. Thus the long series of Delingha rings-denoted precipitation is highly reliable. Another test to validate the monsoon intensity proxy data based on the Zhanjiang Huguangyan sediments using historical records indicates that the years of Lake Maar Ti content series-designated winter monsoon intensities are entirely opposite to historical documents- depicted years of harsh winters in 800-900 AD. As a result, serious doubt is raised about the climatic implication of this paleo-monsoon proxy series.

ClimateAP: an application for dynamic local downscaling of historical and future climate data in Asia Pacific

While low-to-moderate resolution gridded climate data are suitable for climate-impact modeling at global and ecosystems levels, spatial analyses conducted at local scales require climate data with increased spatial accuracy. This is particularly true for research focused on the evaluation of adaptive forest management strategies. In this study, we developed an application, Climate AP, to generate scale-free(i.e., specific to point locations) climate data for historical(1901–2015) and future(2011–2100)years and periods. Climate AP uses the best available interpolated climate data for the reference period 1961–1990 as baseline data. It downscales the baseline data from a moderate spatial resolution to scale-free point data through dynamic local elevation adjustments. It also integrates and downscales the historical and future climate data using a delta approach. In the case of future climate data, two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways(RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and 15 general circulation models are included to allow for the assessment of alternative climate scenarios. In addition, Climate AP generates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables derived from primary monthly variables. The effectiveness of the local downscaling was determined based on the strength of the local linear regression for the estimate of lapse rate. The accuracy of the Climate AP output was evaluated through comparisons of Climate AP output against observations from 1805 weather stations in the Asia Pacific region. The local linear regression explained 70%–80% and 0%–50% of the total variation in monthly temperatures and precipitation, respectively, in most cases. Climate AP reduced prediction error by up to27% and 60% for monthly temperature and precipitation,respectively, relative to the original baselines data. The improvements for baseline portions of historical and futurewere more substantial. Applications and limitations of the software are discussed.

Precipitation Changes in Wet and Dry Seasons over the 20th Century Simulated by Two Versions of the FGOALS Model

Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS） model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65-0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet sea- sons get wetter and the annual range （precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons） increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.

A Study of the Large Scale Flooding over Eastern China in 1755

Following disastrous flooding in several river valleys over eastern China in 1755, serious flooding occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River in 1756 and 1757, a rarely seen precipitation pattern of north-flood and south-drought in China for two successive years. This is a serious meteorological disaster and extreme climatic event taking place under the climatic background of a warm phase of the Little Ice Age. In this paper, by means of historical literature records, the rainy and flooding situation and the weather characteristics of these years are reconstructed and the maps depicting areas of prolonged rain, flood and concomitant famine, insect pest, and pestilence are made. The results show that, in 1755, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, and the Huaihe River Basin experienced a prolonged rainy season with multiple torrential rain events. The continuous rainy period exceeded 40 days in the Huang-Huai Region. An early Meiyu occurred, and the duration of the Meiyu period in the lower Yangtze River Basin was 43 days, the longest in the 18th century. Particularly in Nanjing the annual rainfall of 1755 was 1,378 mm, the highest record of the 18th century. The year of 1755 is characterized by lower temperature in summer, early frost in autumn, and heavy snowfall and freezing rain in winter. These characteristics are extremely similar to those of 1823 and 1954, two typical years of extreme rainfall. And all these three years with extreme precipitation axe corresponding to the minimum phase of the solar activity cycle.

Potential control of climatic changes on flood events in the Yangtze Delta during1100-2002

Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood discharge and the maximum high summer temperature. The research results indicate that the flood magnitudes increased during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age characterized by arid climate events followed by the humid and cold climate conditions give rise to the frequent flood hazards. Low-lying terrain made the study region prone to the flood hazards, storm tide and typhoon. MK analysis reveals that the jumping point of the time series of the flood discharge changes occurred in the mid-1960s, that of the maximum summer temperature changes in the mid-1990s, and the exact jump point in 1993. The flood discharge changes are on negative trend before the 1990s, they are on positive tendency after the 1990s; the maximum high summer temperature changes are on negative trend before the 1990s and on positive tendency after the 1990s. These results indicate that the trend of flood discharge matches that of the maximum high summer temperature in the Yangtze Delta. The occurrence probability of the maximum high summer temperature will be increasing under the climatic warming scenario and which will in turn increase the occurrence probability of the flood events. More active solar action epochs and the higher sea surface temperature index (SST index) of the south Pacific Ocean area lying between 4 o N-4 o S and 150 o W-90 o W correspond to increased annual precipitation, flood discharge and occurrence frequency of floods in the Yangtze Delta. This is partly because the intensified solar activities and the higher SST index give rise to accelerated hydrological circulation from ocean surface to the continent, resulting in increased precipitation on the continent.

Severe Drought Events as Revealed in the Climate Records of China and Their Temperature Situations over the Last 1000 Years

The total 15 severe droughts are discovered with the aid of the 'RetrievalSystem of Chinese Historical Climate Records' for the last 1000 years. The droughts are extensive toenvelope more than 4 provinces and persistent to cover 3 yr or more, and their severity isequivalent to or in excess of that in the 1930s in China. According to the documentary records andrestorations it can be inferred that most droughts are more severe than those in the last 50 years.The 15 droughts may either occur warm or in a cold climate background, with 11 of the 15 cases inthe cold phase. This indicates the difference in climate correspondence between China and northernAmerica, showing the severity of the events in China to be in a cold instead of a warm climatesituation. That is likely to relate to the monsoon climate in eastern Asia.

HISTORICAL EVIDENCE ON CLIMATIC INSTABILITY ABOVE NORMAL IN COOL PERIODS IN CHINA

Twenty-six sequences of grades of dryness/wetness and a combined sequence of indexes of winter temperature since A.D. 1471 in China were adopted as our data. The fluctuations of variability of precipitation and mean temperature are statistically significant from analyses. It has been found that in middle latitudes of eastern China the distribution of the relation between mean temperature and interannual variability of precipitation in historical time forms a rather complex regional pattern, and the correlation coefficients are not unique in signs. But the negative correlations are dominant either in extent or in magnitude. The authors provide evidence that Little Ice Age was a time of more frequent extremes and support the idea that the climatic instability is above normal in cool periods.

Changes of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation simulated by two versions of FGOALS model

Here we assessed the performances of IAP/LASG climate system model FGOALS-g2 and FGOAS-s2 in the simulation of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation （WC）. Both models reasonably reproduce the climatological spatial distribution features of the tropical Pacific WC. We also investigated the changes of WC simulated by two versions of FGOALS model and discussed the mechanism responsible for WC changes. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure （SLP） reveals a reduction of WC during 1900-2004 and 1950-2004, and an enhancement of WC during 1982-2004. During the three different time spans, the WC in FGOALS-g2 shows a weakening trend. In FGOALS-s2, tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation shows no significant change over the past century, but the WC strengthens during 1950-2004 and 1982-2004. The simulated bias of the WC change may be related to the phase of the multi-decadal mode in coupled models, which is not in sync with that in the observations. The change of WC is explained by the hydrological cycle constraints that precipitation must be balanced with the moisture trans- porting from the atmospheric boundary layer to the free troposphere. In FGOALS-g2, the increasing amplitude of the relative variability of precipitation （AP/P） is smaller （larger） than the relative variability of moisture （Aq/q） over the tropical western （eastern） Pacific over the three time spans, and thus leads to a weakened WC. In FGOALS-s2, the convective mass exchange fluxes increase （decrease） over the tropical western （eastern） Pacific over the past 53 a （1950-2004） and the last 23 a （1982- 2004）, and thus leads to a strengthened WC. The distributions of sea surface temperature （SST） trends dominate the change of WC. Over the past 55 a and 23 a, tropical Pacific SST shows an E1 Nifto-like （a La Nifia-like） trend pattern in FGOALS-g2 （FGOALS-s2）, which drives the weakening （strengthening） of WC. Therefore, a successful simulation of the tropical Pacific SST change pattern is necessary for a reasonable simulation of WC change in climate system models. This idea is further sup- ported by the diagnosis of historical sea surface temperature driven AGCM-simulations.

Patterns and ecological determinants of woody plant height in eastern Eurasia and its relation to primary productivity

Aims Plant height is a key functional trait related to aboveground bio-mass,leaf photosynthesis and plant fitness.However,large-scale geographical patterns in community-average plant height(cAPH)of woody species and drivers of these patterns across different life forms remain hotly debated.Moreover,whether cAPH could be used as a predictor of ecosystem primary productivity is unknown.Methods We compiled mature height and distributions of 11422 woody spe-cies in eastern Eurasia,and estimated geographic patterns in cAPH for different taxonomic groups and life forms.then we evaluated the effects of environmental(including current climate and historical climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM))and evolutionary factors on cAPH.Lastly,we compared the predictive power of cAPH on primary productivity with that of LiDAR-derived canopy-height data from a global survey.Important Findings Geographic patterns of cAPH and their drivers differed among taxonomic groups and life forms.the strongest predictor for cAPH of all woody species combined,angiosperms,all dicots and deciduous dicots was actual evapotranspiration,while temperature was the strongest pre-dictor for cAPH of monocots and tree,shrub and evergreen dicots,and water availability for gymnosperms.Historical climate change since the LGM had only weak effects on cAPH.No phylogenetic signal was detected in family-wise average height,which was also unrelated to the tested environmental factors.Finally,we found a strong correlation between cAPH and ecosystem primary productivity.Primary productivity showed a weaker relationship with cAPH of the tallest species within a grid cell and no relationship with LiDAR-derived canopy height reported in the global survey.Our findings suggest that current climate rather than historical climate change and evolutionary history determine the geographical patterns in cAPH.However,the relative effects of climatic factors representing environmental energy and water availability on spatial variations of cAPH vary among plant life forms.Moreover,our results also suggest that cAPH can be used as a good predictor of ecosystem primary productivity.