Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events and Their Teleconnections to Large-scale Ocean-atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Huaihe River Basin,China During 1959–2019

Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.

Probability Distribution of Summer Daily Precipitation in the Huaihe Basin of China Based on Gamma Distribution

The probability distribution of precipitation in the Huaihe basin （HB） is analyzed with the shape and scale parameters of a Gamma distribution. The summer daily precipitation records of 158 meteorological raingauges are applied over the HB during the period of 1980-2007, and the precipitation samples are classified into unconditional rainy days and conditional rainy days which have a dry or wet preceding day over the years. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test and the comparison between the Gamma distribution probability density function and the sample frequency of daily precipitation records of five representative stations are conducted and analyzed. The results show that the HB is a ＂scale-dominated＂ region characterized with large scale parameters of the Gamma distribution, where rainfall is likely to exhibit large variability leading to extreme wet or dry conditions. Fklrther analysis shows that the confluence area of Sha River and Ying River within the stream between Wangjiaba dam and Bengbu station, the eastern branch of the Huaihe River （HR） between Bengbu station and the Hongze Lake, and the downstream area below the Hongze Lake, are all the areas with a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a dry preceding day. The eastern part of the Yishu River watershed and the region near Wangjiaba dam are the center of a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a wet preceding day. Moreover, the day following a dry preceding day has a greater probability of small rainfall. The probability distribution of summer daily precipitation of the HB is significantly skewed. The probability distribution could be more applicable if the rainy days are preceded by a dry or wet day.

Ecological Water Requirement Estimates for Typical Areas in the Huaihe Basin

Aquatic ecosystems require ecological water allocation to prevent from being damaged by natural disasters and undue exploitation. This paper discusses and estimates the ecological water requirements （EWRs） of typical areas in the Huaihe Basin to determine rational allocations of water resources and pro- mote regional improvements of the ecological environment. The main river course, including Hongze Lake and Nansi Lake, was selected as the study subject. Calculational methods for the river and lake EWRs were based on the reasonableness of the results and data availability. The monthly guarantee rate method was used to calculate monthly, flood period, non-flood period, and annual EWRs for the main river course and the main tributaries at two different guarantee rates. The minimum water level method was used to calculate annual EWRs for Hongze Lake and the upper and lower Nansi Lake of 1.521×10^9 m^3, 0.637×10^9 m^3, and 0.306×10^9 m^3. The results were used to evaluate the rationality of the quantity of water resources allocated to ecological uses in the Huaihe Basin during 1998-2003. The result shows that the present water resource allocations in the Huaihe Basin cannot satisfy the basic ecological requirements for some years, especially years with less precipitation.

Flood and Waterlogging Monitoring over Huaihe River Basin by AMSR-E Data Analysis

In this paper, we investigated the potential of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) for flood monitoring. The proposed approach was based on the polarized ratio index (PRI), which was computed by using AMSR-E data at 37GHz, vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperature values and the water surface fraction (WSF) got by using the PRI at 37GHz. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (MODIS) data were used to validate the WSF values. The analysis of flood and waterlogging using the WSF map on July 6, 2003 indicates that the use of WSF for flood and waterlogging disaster assessment is feasible. Utilizing the correlation of WSF derived from AMSR-E and water area derived from MODIS, the water area of the Huaihe River Basin were computed by only using AMSR-E data in the summer of 2003, which overcame the influence of cloud on water estimation using MODIS data during flood.

Assessing the Seasonal Predictability of Summer Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin with Multiple APCC Models

Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated in this paper on the basis of 23-year(1981-2003) retrospective forecasts by 10 climate models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction system.It is found that the summer rainfall variance in this basin is largely internal,which leads to lower rainfall predictability for most individual climate models.By dividing the 10 models into three categories according to their sea surface temperature(SST) boundary conditions including observed,predicted,and persistent SSTs,the MME deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River basin is investigated.It is shown that the MME is effective for increasing the current seasonal forecast skill.Further analysis shows that the MME averaged over predicted SST models has the highest rainfall prediction skill,which is closely related to model's capability in reproducing the observed dominant modes of the summer rainfall anomalies in Huaihe River basin.This result can be further ascribed to the fact that the predicted SST MME is the most effective model ensemble for capturing the relationship between the summer rainfall anomalies over Huaihe River basin and the SST anomalies(SSTAs) in equatorial oceans.

Application of a Coupled Land Surface-Hydrological Model to Flood Simulation in the Huaihe River Basin of China

A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) was investigated using two different models: a coupled land surface hydrological model(CLHMS), and a large-scale hydrological model(LSX-HMS). The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting.

Possible connection between anomalous activity of Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern and winter snowfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin of China

The temporal and spatial characteristics of winter snowfall in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China and its possible connection with Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern (SCAND) anomalies are explored based on daily meteorological data contained in the Daily Surface Climate Dataset for China (V3.0) during the period 1960–2012. Results show that winter snowfall in the YHRB exhibits consistent anomalies over the whole region for the interannual variation during 1960–2012. Further analysis suggests that winter snowfall anomalies in the YHRB are closely linked to the anomalous wintertime SCAND activity. When there is more winter snowfall in the YHRB, SCAND is usually in a positive phase, accompanied by a strengthened Urals blocking high and East Asian trough, which is conducive to strengthened cold-air activity, intensified vertical motions, and more water vapor transport in the YHRB. In contrast, less winter snowfall in the YHRB usually happens in the negative phase of SCAND. Our results provide useful information to better understand the relevant mechanism responsible for anomalous winter snowfall in this area.

Hydrological Processes in the Huaihe River Basin, China： Seasonal Variations, Causes and Implications

Understanding streamflow changes in terms of trends and periodicities and relevant causes is the first step into scientific management of water resources in a changing environment. In this study, monthly streamflow variations were analyzed using Modified Mann-Kendall(MM-K) trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform(CWT) methods at 9 hydrological stations in the Huaihe River Basin. It was found that: 1) streamflow mainly occurs during May to September, accounting for 70.4% of the annual total streamflowamount with Cv values between 0.16–0.85 and extremum ratio values between 1.70–23.90; 2) decreased streamflow can be observed in the Huaihe River Basin and significant decreased streamflow can be detected during April and May, which should be the results of precipitation change and increased irrigation demand; 3) significant periods of 2–4 yr were detected during the 1960 s, the 1980 s and the 2000 s. Different periods were found at stations concentrated within certain regions implying periods of streamflow were caused by different influencing factors for specific regions; 4) Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) has the most significant impacts on monthly streamflow mainly during June. Besides, Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the Ni?o3.4 Sea Surface Temperature(Ni?o3.4) have impacts on monthly streamflow with three months lags, and was less significant in time lag of six months. Identification of critical climatic factors having impacts on streamflow changes can help to predict monthly streamflow changes using climatic factors as explanatory variables. These findings were well corroborated by results concerning impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) regimes on precipitation events across the Huaihe River Basin. The results of this study can provide theoretical background for basin-scale management of water resources and agricultural irrigation.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.

The Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Variation of Strong Precipitation Caused Flood and Agricultural Disaster Loss in Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu Period of 2007

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of strong precipitation caused flood and agricultural disaster loss in Huaihe River basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu period of 2007.[Method] On the basis of rainfalls of each station in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,rainfall data during Meiyu period of 2007 and flood disaster data in the same period,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of strong precipitation caused flood during Meiyu period of 2007 and its harm on agriculture were analyzed.The variation rule,distribution characteristics of strong precipitation during Meiyu period in Huaihe River basin of Anhui and its relationship with agricultural disaster loss were discussed.[Result] During Meiyu period of 2007 in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,the rainstorm was more,and the rainfall was large.The precipitation variation showed 'three-peak' trend.Rainfall in Huaihe River basin during Meiyu period of 2007 was greatly more than that homochronously in Yangtze River basin.The rain area over 400.0 mm during Meiyu period mainly located in Huaihe River basin,and the rain area over 600.0 mm mainly located from area along Huaihe River to central Huaibei.The rainfall during Meiyu period gradually decreased toward south and north by the north bank of Huaihe River as the symmetry axis.The rainfall in area along Huaihe River showed wavy distribution in east-west direction.The flood disaster loss index and disaster area of crops in Huaihe River basin of Anhui both increased as rainfall in Meiyu period.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for flood prevention,disaster reduction and agricultural flood-avoiding development in Huaihe River basin.

Effect and Risk Assessment of Animal Manure Pollution on Huaihe River Basin, China

Currently the deteriorated water quality for Huaihe River Basin(HRB) in China was still serious because of the negative influence multiple pollution sources including animal manure. However, little attention was paid to the potential risk of animal manure for farmland and water quality of HRB. This study was quantified and forecasted animal manure risk and its spatiotemporal variations in HRB from 2008 to 2018, through pollution discharge coefficient method and pollution load calculation, combined with kriging interpolation method of ArcGIS technology, based on statistics principle. All the data were originated from livestock and poultry breeding in HRB from 2008 to 2018. The future risk of farmland and water environment in HRB was further forecasted. The results indicated that the livestock and poultry manure has become a key pollution source causing a negative influence on farmland and water quality owing to a large amount of animal manure production without efficient recycle utilization. The chemical oxygen demand(COD) and total nitrogen(TN) discharge of animal manure in HRB almost accounted for 17.00% and 39.00% of the whole COD and TN discharge in China. The diffusion concentration of TN and TP in those regions of Shangqiu, Zhoukou, Heze, Zhumadian, Luohe, Jining, Xuchang,Kaifeng, Taian and Zhengzhou of HRB has exceeded the threshold value 10.00 mg/L of TN and 0.08 mg/L of TP, causing water eutrophication and cancer villages. The assessment of farmland and water quality risk revealed that Zhumadian, Zhoukou, Shangqiu, Taian, Jining, Heze, Linyi and Rizhao belonged to high risk areas in HRB, which were still obtained high farmland and water quality risk index in 2030. The results provided insight into an important significance of sustainable balance of livestock and poultry development and ecosystem in HRB.

Soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction over a hilly forest in the southern Huaihe River Basin:Long-term field experiment and preliminary analysis of basic observations

To improve the understanding of the CO_(2) exchange and the cycling of energy and water between the land surface and atmosphere over a typical hilly forest in southeastern China,a long-term field experimental observatory was established in Huainan,Anhui Province.Here,the authors briefly describe the three parts of ongoing research activities:the environmental monitoring at the site,the meteorological observations on a high tower,and particularly the intensive measurement of soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction on a lower tower.Specifically,the diurnal variation of basic meteorological variables on a typical clear day(13 July 2018),and their temporal variation in the first three months of the low tower’s operation(4 June to 31 August 2018),and in combination with simultaneous data from the high tower,are analyzed.Results show that the data demonstrate reasonable variabilities,and the variables exhibit significant diurnal variation,characteristics of summer values,and considerable differences in summer months.The daily and monthly average albedos above the forest canopy were both 0.13.The daily average soil CO_(2) concentration was 1726 and 4481 ppm at 2 and 10 cm,respectively.The soil CO_(2) concentration changed with soil volumetric moisture contents,but showed a weak correlation with soil temperature in summer 2018.As the observatory continues to run and data continue to be collated,further investigation of the long-term variation of monsoon characteristics should be performed in the future.The experiment is useful in ecosystem and atmosphere interaction research,as well as for the development and evaluation of climate models,in the transitional climate zone of the Huaihe River basin.

Analysis on the Climate Characteristics of Rainstorm Weather over Huaihe River Basin and Its Influence on Agriculture Production

By the daily precipitation data at 18 meteorological stations of Huaihe River basin in recent 50 years,the temporal-spatial distribution features of the rainstorm over Huaihe River basin during 1958- 2007 and its influence on agriculture production were analyzed. The results showed that the interannual change magnitudes of the rainstorm days and rainstorm amount from 1958 to 2007 were fierce. Especially in the late 1990 s,rainstorm days and rainstorm amount increased obviously. As a result of interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon and East Asian circulation system,rainstorm had significant quasi-2-year periodic oscillation in summer. Because of water vapor and terrain,rainstorm mainly concentrated in the southwest over the Huaihe River basin,but was less in the north.

Analysis and Zoning of Rainstorm Flood Disaster Risk in Huaihe River Basin

Taking the rainstorm flood disaster of Huaihe River basin as the research object,according to the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters,starting from the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body,the weight of each impact factor was calculated by using AHP. By using spatial analysis and statistical function of GIS,the integrated risk chart of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin was obtained. The results showed that the high risk areas of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin mainly distributed in the southern part of Henan,the central northern part of Anhui and eastern part of Jiangsu Province. Due to higher fatalness of inducing factors in southern Henan,there was high risk in the region. Central Anhui and east Jiangsu were not only high-fatalness zones but also high vulnerability zones of population and economy.

Analysis on Formation Reason of a Squall Line Weather in the Yellow River and Huaihe River Basins

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze formation reason of the strong squall weather in the Yellow River and Huaihe River basins on June 3,2009.[Method]Using American NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data,observation data at automatic weather station,conventional meteorological data,FY-2C satellite cloud image and Doppler weather radar data in Shangqiu,circulation background situation of a strong squall line case on June 3,2009 in the Yellow River and Huaihe River basins was conducted diagnostic analysis.Then,formation reason of the squall weather was discussed.[Result]Increasing convective instable stratification was the favorable situation.Translot in the rear of northeast cold vortex leaded cold air to go south.The rising airflow created by ground meso-scale convergence was as trigger mechanism of the convection.Water vapor from the south continuously supplied.Finally,squall line was formed,and developed.It was a high incidence zone of the thunderstorm and squall line near dry line.[Conclusion]The research provided reference for the future similar weather forecast.

Co-occurrence, sources and co-enrichment mechanism of arsenic, fluoride in groundwater from Huaihe River Basin, China

Arsenic(As),fluoride(F^(−))are both ubiquitous in groundwater,and co-exposure to these elements through contaminated drinking water may cause detrimental effects on human health more in comparison with individual exposure.As,F^(−)co-occurrence in groundwater of the inland plain in Huaihe River Basin,China is a major concern,where inhabitants are rely on groundwater as the leading water source for drinking to date.This work employs an approach of hydrochemical analysis and modelling to identify the possible origin of As and F^(−),to analyze co-enrichment mechanism,and to estimate the associated exposure risk.The results shows presence of elevated As and F^(−)concentrations is an important factor affecting groundwater quality from 62 groundwater samples.The recorded As concentrations vary from 0.23 to 20.40μg/L,with a mean of 5.95μg/L,F^(−)concentrations vary from 0.54 to 2.60μg/L,with a mean of 1.29 mg/L,and 8%of samples are simultaneously above their permissible limits in drinking water by the WHO.Groundwater with As,F^(−)co-contamination is occurred within reducing and alkaline aquifers,and its chemical type is HCO_(3)–Na.The hydrochemical processes involved in the co-contamination are reductive desorption,evaporation,and ion exchange,which are controlled by local geology,geomorphology,and hydrochemistry.Groundwater As is derived and released by reductive desorption and F^(−)is mainly originated by fluorite dissolution.Groundwater As,F^(−)are geogenic sources,and the mechanisms for co-contamination are associated with high elemental abundance,flat terrain,alkaline and reductive groundwater conditions.The research provides a case study about groundwater As,F^(−)co-contamination,which may be enhance understanding the co-enrichment mechanism in semi-humid areas.

Source apportionment of river water pollution in a typical agricultural city of Anhui Province, eastern China using multivariate statistical techniques with APCS– MLR

The deterioration of the surface water environment has become a serious challenge for water resources management due to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. Water resources protection requires control of potential pollution sources. In this study, 99 water samples were collected from a river in a typical agricultural city of Anhui Province in eastern China, and these samples were analyzed in terms of pH, electrical conductivity, and the concentrations of F-, Cl-, SO42-, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, As, Cr, Cu, Zn, and Pb. Cluster analysis, co-occurrence network analysis, and principal component analysis/factor analysis were conducted to qualitatively identify the potential sources of river water pollution in the study area. An absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression receptor model was used to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each source to water quality parameters. The results showed that all observed water quality indices met the quality criteria specified in the Chinese drinking water standards, except for pH, ρ(F-), ρ(SO42-), and ρ(As). The heat map showed that the frequent recharge of pollutants from the tributaries during the wet season was the main reason for the deterioration of water quality. Five sources of river water pollution were identified, and their contribution ratios in a descending order were as follows: the geogenic process (24%) > agricultural activities (21%) > poultry farming sources (17%) > domestic pollution (9%) > transportation pollution (5%). Therefore, controlling pollution from agricultural activities, strengthening the regulation of livestock farming, and improving the sewage network are the recommended strategies for improving the quality of surface water resources in this area.

Regionalization Methodology Systems of Aquatic Ecosystems in China and the Case Study of Huaihe River Basin

本文提出的水生态区划方法体系包括指导思想、基本原则、分区方法、命名与编码规则几个部分。其核心指导思想是科学发展观及人与自然和谐的理念;基本原则有区域相关性原则、协调原则、主导功能原则和分及区划原则;分区方法、命名与编码规则则随分区等级和研究尺度而异。本文采用2级分区的思路,提出了全国水生态区划分方案,包括6个水生态一级区和34个水生态二级区。基于以下3类7种水生态服务功能:水生态保育类(包括水源涵养、水土保持和物种保护),水生态调控类(包括洪水调蓄和生境维持),水生态服务类(包括产品提供和景观保障),以淮河流域为例,将3级水生态区划方法应用于流域尺度。在实例区共划分出2个水生态一级区、3个水生态二级区和21个水生态三级区。

Spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in Huaihe River Basin during 1960-2009

Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series （AM） and peak over threshold series （POT） are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme pre- cipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Gen- eralized extreme value distribution （GEV）, Generalized Pareto distribution （GP） and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.

The influence of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River Basin, China

This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the period between 1959 and 2015. The aim of this research is to quantitatively analyze the rate of contribution of upstream runoff to that of the midstream as well as the influence of climate change and human activities in this section of the river. Our goal is to explain why extreme precipitation is concentrated in the upper reaches of the HRB while floods tend to occur frequently in the middle reaches of this river basin. Results show that the rate of contribution of precipitation to runoff in the upper reaches of the HRB is significantly higher than temperature. Data show that the maximum contribution rate of upstream runoff to that of the midstream can be as high as 2.23%, while the contribution of temperature is just 0.38%. In contrast, the rate of contribution of human activities to runoff is 87.20% in the middle reaches of the HRB, while that due to climate change is 12.80%. Frequent flood disasters therefore occur in the middle reaches of the HRB because of the combined effects of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches and human activities in the middle sections.