Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events and Their Teleconnections to Large-scale Ocean-atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Huaihe River Basin,China During 1959–2019

Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.

The Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Variation of Strong Precipitation Caused Flood and Agricultural Disaster Loss in Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu Period of 2007

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of strong precipitation caused flood and agricultural disaster loss in Huaihe River basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu period of 2007.[Method] On the basis of rainfalls of each station in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,rainfall data during Meiyu period of 2007 and flood disaster data in the same period,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of strong precipitation caused flood during Meiyu period of 2007 and its harm on agriculture were analyzed.The variation rule,distribution characteristics of strong precipitation during Meiyu period in Huaihe River basin of Anhui and its relationship with agricultural disaster loss were discussed.[Result] During Meiyu period of 2007 in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,the rainstorm was more,and the rainfall was large.The precipitation variation showed 'three-peak' trend.Rainfall in Huaihe River basin during Meiyu period of 2007 was greatly more than that homochronously in Yangtze River basin.The rain area over 400.0 mm during Meiyu period mainly located in Huaihe River basin,and the rain area over 600.0 mm mainly located from area along Huaihe River to central Huaibei.The rainfall during Meiyu period gradually decreased toward south and north by the north bank of Huaihe River as the symmetry axis.The rainfall in area along Huaihe River showed wavy distribution in east-west direction.The flood disaster loss index and disaster area of crops in Huaihe River basin of Anhui both increased as rainfall in Meiyu period.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for flood prevention,disaster reduction and agricultural flood-avoiding development in Huaihe River basin.

Effect and Risk Assessment of Animal Manure Pollution on Huaihe River Basin, China

Currently the deteriorated water quality for Huaihe River Basin(HRB) in China was still serious because of the negative influence multiple pollution sources including animal manure. However, little attention was paid to the potential risk of animal manure for farmland and water quality of HRB. This study was quantified and forecasted animal manure risk and its spatiotemporal variations in HRB from 2008 to 2018, through pollution discharge coefficient method and pollution load calculation, combined with kriging interpolation method of ArcGIS technology, based on statistics principle. All the data were originated from livestock and poultry breeding in HRB from 2008 to 2018. The future risk of farmland and water environment in HRB was further forecasted. The results indicated that the livestock and poultry manure has become a key pollution source causing a negative influence on farmland and water quality owing to a large amount of animal manure production without efficient recycle utilization. The chemical oxygen demand(COD) and total nitrogen(TN) discharge of animal manure in HRB almost accounted for 17.00% and 39.00% of the whole COD and TN discharge in China. The diffusion concentration of TN and TP in those regions of Shangqiu, Zhoukou, Heze, Zhumadian, Luohe, Jining, Xuchang,Kaifeng, Taian and Zhengzhou of HRB has exceeded the threshold value 10.00 mg/L of TN and 0.08 mg/L of TP, causing water eutrophication and cancer villages. The assessment of farmland and water quality risk revealed that Zhumadian, Zhoukou, Shangqiu, Taian, Jining, Heze, Linyi and Rizhao belonged to high risk areas in HRB, which were still obtained high farmland and water quality risk index in 2030. The results provided insight into an important significance of sustainable balance of livestock and poultry development and ecosystem in HRB.

Analysis on the Climate Characteristics of Rainstorm Weather over Huaihe River Basin and Its Influence on Agriculture Production

By the daily precipitation data at 18 meteorological stations of Huaihe River basin in recent 50 years,the temporal-spatial distribution features of the rainstorm over Huaihe River basin during 1958- 2007 and its influence on agriculture production were analyzed. The results showed that the interannual change magnitudes of the rainstorm days and rainstorm amount from 1958 to 2007 were fierce. Especially in the late 1990 s,rainstorm days and rainstorm amount increased obviously. As a result of interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon and East Asian circulation system,rainstorm had significant quasi-2-year periodic oscillation in summer. Because of water vapor and terrain,rainstorm mainly concentrated in the southwest over the Huaihe River basin,but was less in the north.

Analysis and Zoning of Rainstorm Flood Disaster Risk in Huaihe River Basin

Taking the rainstorm flood disaster of Huaihe River basin as the research object,according to the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters,starting from the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body,the weight of each impact factor was calculated by using AHP. By using spatial analysis and statistical function of GIS,the integrated risk chart of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin was obtained. The results showed that the high risk areas of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin mainly distributed in the southern part of Henan,the central northern part of Anhui and eastern part of Jiangsu Province. Due to higher fatalness of inducing factors in southern Henan,there was high risk in the region. Central Anhui and east Jiangsu were not only high-fatalness zones but also high vulnerability zones of population and economy.

Spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in Huaihe River Basin during 1960-2009

Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series （AM） and peak over threshold series （POT） are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme pre- cipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Gen- eralized extreme value distribution （GEV）, Generalized Pareto distribution （GP） and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.

Zoning assessment of water environmental supporting capacity for socioeconomic development in the Huaihe River Basin, China

There have been substantial conflicts in the human-water relationship in the Huaihe River Basin （HRB）. To achieve sustainable economic development without degrading the water environment in the HRB, we develop a three-dimensional water environmental sup- porting capacity （WESC） model based on water environmental carrying capacity （WECC）, water environmental pressure （WEP）, and water pollution prevention and control capacity （WPPC）. Geographic information systems spatial analysis with the analytical hierarchy process method and dynamic weighted summation is applied. Several proposals for suitable locations for industry and environmental protection strategies for water were presented. The following results were obtained. （1） The spatial differences in WECC are substantial; areas with high-value WECC zones are mainly located along the main stream of the Huaihe River on the south side. WEP is generally high, with an overall low level of pollution prevention and control in the whole HRB. WPPC and WEP show high spatial overlapping due to the fact that areas with higher environmental pollution usually have high level of economic development, and thus have a strong capacity for pollution control. （2） Overall, WESC is moderate in the HRB. In particular, areas with a high WESC value only account for 56.24% of the HRB in 2010 Distinct differences in WESC also exist between areas located in the south compared with in the north of the basin, and areas alongside the downstream region compared with alongside the upstream and midstream regions. （3） Consequently, according to the guidance for indus- try zoning in the HRB, the areas in the south and alongside the downstream and sub-streams with a low WEP value and high WECC and WPPC, traditional industries should be developed based on strict environmental access and pollution emission standards. While for the areas along the midstream of the HRB and along the whole Yishusi River Basin, which have a high WEP value, industrial restructuring and technological upgrading are suggested. Action should be taken to limit development and protect the environment in the upstream region of the basin which is a key source of drinking water, in the eastern route along the line of the South-toNorth Water Diversion Project, and in the ecologically fragile region alongside the basin. This will ensure good environmental functionality including subsistent provision of clean water, while at the same time satisfying the urgent need to adjust, transform, and upgrade the industrial structure.

MACROSCALE HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OVER THE HUAIHE RIVER BASIN

The Xin'anjiang Model is used as the basic model to develop a monthly grid-based macroscale hydrological model for the assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources.The monthly discharge from 1953 through 1985 in the Huaihe River Basin is simulated.The sensitivity analysis on runoff is made under assumed climatic scenarios.There is a good agreement between the observed and simulated runoff.Due to the increase of time interval and decrease of precipitation intensity on monthly time scale,there is no monthly runoff in some model girds as the momhly hydrological model is applied to the Huaihe River Basin.Two methods of downscaling monthly precipitation to daily resolution are validated by running the Xin'anjiang model with monthly data at a daily time step.and the model outputs are more realistic than the monthly hydrological model.The metbods of downscaling of monthly precipitation to daily resolution may provide an idea in solving the problem of the shortage of daily data.In the research of the climate change on water resources,the daily hydrological model can be used instead of the monthly one.

THE ENERGY BUDGETS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER HUAIHE RIVER BASIN DURING HUBEX FIELD OBSERVATION PERIODS IN 1999

In different synoptic conditions and at different time scales,the analysis of the energy budgets by Bowen Ratio Method and Bulk Schemes over Huaihe River Basin during the field observation periods of HUBEX in 1999 shows that,(1)the averaged latent heat flux is an order of magnitude more than the averaged sensible heat flux during the observation period:(2)the variation of total cloud amount is out of phase with the terms of energy budgets except for the downward longwave radiation which maybe is related to the cloud's height and class:(3)the values of sensible and latent heat fluxes are small during rain episodes,but thereafter,the values become high and then up to maximum.It is similar to the other terms of the energy budgets except for the downward longwave radiation.The diurnal variation of energy budgets indicates that the daytime precipitation exerts great influence to the energy budgets,but the nighttime precipitation makes little influence; (4)the variation of the latent heat flux is in phase with the evaporation,which indicates that the latent heat flux calculated by bulk schemes is reliable:(5)the means of the sensible and latent heat flux and momentum flux by bulk schemes for the time period from May to August are, respectively,30.71W/m^2.116.81W/m^2.2.86×10^(-2)N/m^2 in 1998 and 30.28W/m^2,107.35 W/m^2,2.74×10^(-2)N/m^2 in 1999.The values of these two years are similar.During summer in 1999 the magnitude and activity of sensible heat flux are strongest in June and those of the latent heat flux are in August.

Spatio-temporal accuracy evaluation of MSWEP daily precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin,China:A comparison study with representative satellite-and reanalysis-based products

Multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation(MSWEP)is one of the most popular merged global precipitation products with long-term spanning and high spatial resolution.While various studies have acknowledged its ability to accurately estimate precipitation in terms of temporal dynamics,its performance regarding spatial pattern and extreme rainfall is overlooked.To fill this knowledge gap,the daily precipitation of two versions of MSWEP(MSWEP V2.1&V2.2)are compared with that of three representative satellite-and reanalysis-based products,namely the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM 3B42 V7),the climate prediction center morphing technique satellite-gauge merged product(CMORPH BLD),and the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5).The comparison is made according to the dense daily rainfall observations from 539 rain gauges over the Huaihe River Basin in China during 2006–2015.The results show that MSWEP V2.1,MSWEP V2.2 and CMORPH BLD have better performance on temporal accuracy of precipitation estimation,followed by ERA5 and TRMM 3B42V7.MSWEPs yield the most even spatial distribution across the basin since it takes full advantage of the multi datasets.As the weighted-ensemble method is independently carried out on each grid in MSWEPs,the spatial distribution of local precipitation is changed by different source data,which results in that MSWEPs perform worse than CMORPH BLD in terms of the representation of precipitation spatial pattern.In addition,the capability of MSWEPs to describe the spatial structure in the rainy season is lower than that in the dry season.Strong precipitation(≥100 mm/d)events are better represented in TRMM 3B42 V7 products than in MSWEPs.Finally,based on the comparison results,we suggest to improve the merging algorithm of MSWEP by considering the precipitation spatial self-correlation and adjusting the merging weights based on the performance of the source datasets under different precipitation intensities.

Evaluation and Analysis of RegCM3 Simulated Summer Rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin of China

This study evaluates the ability of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics （ICTP） version 3 Regional Climate Model （RegCM3） in simulating the summer rainfall amount and distribution and large-scale circulation over the Huaihe River basin of China. We conducted the simulation for the period of 1982-2001 and the wet year of 2003 to test the ensemble simulation capacity of RegCM3. First, by comparing the simulated rainfall amount and distribution against the observations, it is found that RegCM3 can reproduce the rainfall pattern and its annual variations. In addition, the simulated spatial patterns of 850-hPa wind and specific humidity fields are close to the observations, although the wind speed and humidity values are larger. Finally, the ensemble simulation of RegCM3 for summer 2003 failed to capture the spatial distribution and underestimated the magnitude of the precipitation anomalies, and the reasons are analyzed.

Mapping runoff based on hydro-stochastic approach for the Huaihe River Basin, China

Theoretical difficulties for mapping and for estimating river regime characteristics in a large-scale basin remain because of the nature of the variable under study： river flows are related to a specific area, i.e. the drainage basin, and are hierarchically organized in space through the river network with upstream-downstream dependencies. Another limitation is there are not enough gauge stations in developing countries. This presentation aims at developing the hydro-stochastic approach for producing choropleth maps of average annual runoff and computing mean discharge along the main river network for a large-scale basin. The approach applied to mean annual runoff is based on geostatistical interpolation proce- dures coupled with water balance and data uncertainty analyses. It is proved by an applica- tion in the upstream at Bengbu in the Huaihe River Basin, a typical large-scale basin in China. Hydro-stochasitic approach in a first step interpolates to a regular grid net and in a second step the grid values are integrated along rivers, The interpolation scheme includes a constraint to be able to account for the lateral water balance along the rivers. Grid runoff map with 10 km x 10 km resolution and the discharge map along the river with the 1 km basic length unit are the main results in this study. This kind of statistic approach can be widely used because it avoids the complexity of hydrological models and does not depend on the meteorological data.

Effects of Rainfall and Underlying Surface on Flood Recession——The Upper Huaihe River Basin Case

The effects of rainfall and underlying surface conditions on flood recession processes are a critical issue for flood risk reduction and water use in a region.In this article,we examined and clarified the issue in the upper Huaihe River Basin where flood disasters frequently occur.Data on 58 rainstorms and flooding events at eight watersheds during 2006–2015 were collected.An exponential equation(with a key flood recession coefficient)was used to fit the flood recession processes,and their correlations with six potential causal factors—decrease rate of rainfall intensity,distance from the storm center to the outlet of the basin,basin area,basin shape coefficient,basin average slope,and basin relief amplitude—were analyzed by the Spearman correlation test and the Kendall tau test.Our results show that 95%of the total flood recession events could be well fitted with the coefficient of determination(R2)values higher than 0.75.When the decrease rate of rainfall intensity(Vi)is smaller than 0.2 mm/h2,rainfall conditions more significantly control the flood recession process;when Vi is greater than 0.2 mm/h2,underlying surface conditions dominate.The result of backward elimination shows that when Vi takes the values of0.2–0.5 mm/h2 and is greater than 0.5 mm/h2,the flood recession process is primarily influenced by the basin’s average slope and basin area,respectively.The other three factors,however,indicate weak effects in the study area.

Measurement of HONO flux using the aerodynamic gradient method over an agricultural field in the Huaihe River Basin,China

To investigate nitrous acid(HONO)levels and potential HONO sources above crop rotation fields.The HONO fluxes were measured by the aerodynamic gradient(AG)method from 14 December 2019 to 2 January 2020 over an agricultural field in the Huaihe River Basin.The ambient HONO levels were measured at two different heights(0.15 and 1.5 m),showing a typical diurnal cycle with low daytime levels and high nighttime levels.The upward HONO fluxes were mostly observed during the day,whereas deposition dominated at night.The diurnal variation of HONO flux followed solar radiation,with a noontime maximum of 0.2 nmol/(m^(2)·sec).The average upward HONO flux of 0.06±0.17 nmol/(m^(2)·sec)indicated that the agricultural field was a net source for atmospheric HONO.The higher HONO/NO_(2)ratio and NO_(2)-to-HONO conversion rate close to the surface suggested that nocturnal HONO was formed and released near the ground.The unknown HONO source was derived from the daytime HONO budget analysis,with an average strength of 0.31 ppbV/hr at noontime.The surface HONO flux,which was highly correlated with the photolysis frequency J(NO_(2))(R^(2)=0.925)and the product of J(NO_(2))×NO_(2)(R^(2)=0.840),accounted for∼23%of unknown daytime HONO source.The significant correlation between HONO fluxes and J(NO_(2))suggests a light-driven HONO formation mechanism responsible for the surface HONO flux during daytime.

EXPERIMENT OF QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENTS OF PRECIPITATION BY USE OF WEATHER RADAR IN THE HUAIHE RIVER BASIN

With the scheme of the variation analysis and Kalman filter,the radar data were adjusted by the real-time rain gauge data.The accuracy of areal rainfall calculation was improved and the results can be basically used for flood forecasting.It is concluded that the scheme is suitable in the upper and middle reaches of the Huaihe River.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.

Source apportionment of river water pollution in a typical agricultural city of Anhui Province, eastern China using multivariate statistical techniques with APCS– MLR

The deterioration of the surface water environment has become a serious challenge for water resources management due to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. Water resources protection requires control of potential pollution sources. In this study, 99 water samples were collected from a river in a typical agricultural city of Anhui Province in eastern China, and these samples were analyzed in terms of pH, electrical conductivity, and the concentrations of F-, Cl-, SO42-, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, As, Cr, Cu, Zn, and Pb. Cluster analysis, co-occurrence network analysis, and principal component analysis/factor analysis were conducted to qualitatively identify the potential sources of river water pollution in the study area. An absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression receptor model was used to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each source to water quality parameters. The results showed that all observed water quality indices met the quality criteria specified in the Chinese drinking water standards, except for pH, ρ(F-), ρ(SO42-), and ρ(As). The heat map showed that the frequent recharge of pollutants from the tributaries during the wet season was the main reason for the deterioration of water quality. Five sources of river water pollution were identified, and their contribution ratios in a descending order were as follows: the geogenic process (24%) > agricultural activities (21%) > poultry farming sources (17%) > domestic pollution (9%) > transportation pollution (5%). Therefore, controlling pollution from agricultural activities, strengthening the regulation of livestock farming, and improving the sewage network are the recommended strategies for improving the quality of surface water resources in this area.

Environmental archaeology on Longshan Culture （4500-4000 aBP） at Yuhuicun Site in Bengbu, Anhui Province

Based on the samples collected from the west wall of the ABYT2004 at Yuhuicun Site in Bengbu, Anhui Province, the multi-environmental substitute indexes such as the grain-size, Rb/Sr, zircon crystal morphology and magnetic susceptibility were analyzed. The age of archaeological strata was determined by AMS^14C dating. According to the results, combined with the information of the ancient human activities and the cultural heritage data obtained from the Longshan cultural archaeological strata, it can be concluded that （1） Before 4500 aBP, the climate was humid and water level was high in the Huaihe River and its tributaries, the drainage basin and its surrounding areas were even flooded, so the site area was submerged and there were no human activities around the site. （2） About 4500 aBP, the climate began to become drier and water level of the Huaihe River and its tributaries began to decline, thus floodplain gradually appeared, Yuhuicun Site and Longshan Culture began to appear. （3） Around 4100 aBP, the climate was humid and rainfall was abundant, which resulted in frequent flood disasters in the whole Huaihe River Basin. （4） After 4100 aBP, the climate gradually transited to be cold and dry, agricultural production was constrained to reduce the food source, Yuhuicun Site was almost abandoned. （5） The environmental information in sedimentary strata and historical records based on ancient books agree with each other. In addition, Yuhuicun Site was related to Dayu Zhishui （Yu the Great in taming the floods） in ancient books.

Major Scientific Achievements of the First China–Japan Cooperative GAME/HUBEX Experiment: A Historical Review

In the summers of 1998 and 1999, Chinese and Japanese scientists cooperatively conducted the first large-scale energy and water cycle experiment(WCRP/GEWEX/GAME/HUBEX: World Climate Research Program/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment/Asian Monsoon Experiment/Huaihe River Basin Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) in the Huaihe River basin, Anhui Province of China. The main objective of this field experiment(HUBEX)was to investigate the multiple-scale structure characteristics, life cycles, and genesis and development mechanisms of the Meiyu system in East Asia as well as the cause of related flooding disasters. It was a joint China-Japan cooperative meteorological and hydrological observation experiment. On the basis of intensive observations, scientists from the two countries conducted follow-up investigations through collating and compiling data and performing scientific analysis during the following five years. It can be concluded that the HUBEX project has yielded comprehensive and remarkable achievements. This paper introduces the major scientific results derived from this field experiment and the ensuing investigations, and reassesses their merits and shortages for the purpose of providing useful experience and proposing new research targets as well as prospects for the initiation of a new joint scientific Meiyu experiment in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin.