Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

Microplastics in sediment of the Three Gorges Reservoir:abundance and characteristics under different environmental conditions

Freshwater microplastic pollution is an urgent issue of global concern,and research on the distribution in reservoirs is lacking.We investigated the microplastic pollution levels in wet sediments collected from the Three Gorges Reservoir,the largest reservoir of China.Results show that microplastics were ubiquitous in the sediments of the Three Gorges Reservoir,and their abundance ranged from 59 to 276 pp/kg(plastic particles per kg,dry weight).Economic development and total population were important factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of microplastic abundance,and the contribution of large cities along the reservoir to microplastic pollution should be paid with more attention.Fibrous microplastics were the most abundant type of microplastic particles in reservoir sediments,whereas polystyrene,polypropylene,and polyamide were the main types of polymers.The apparent spatial heterogeneity in morphology and color of microplastics is attributed to different anthropogenic or landbased pollution sources.Moreover,the accumulation of microplastics near the inlet of tributaries reflects the role of potential contributors of tributaries.More importantly,multiple bisphenols(BPs)and heavy metals detected at the microplastic surfaces indicate that microplastics can act as carriers of these pollutants in the environment in the same way as sediments did,which may alter the environmental fate and toxicity of these pollutants.Therefore,we conclude that the Three Gorges Reservoir had been contaminated with microplastics,which posed a stress risk for organisms who ingest them along with their associated pollutants(BPs,heavy metals).

Long-Term Performance and Microstructural Characterization of Dam Concrete in the Three Gorges Project

This study investigates the long-term performance of laboratory dam concrete in different curing environments over ten years and the microstructure of 17-year-old laboratory concrete and actual concrete cores drilled from the Three Gorges Dam.The mechanical properties of the laboratory dam concrete,whether cured in natural or standard environments,continued to improve over time.Furthermore,the laboratory dam concrete exhibited good resistance to diffusion and a refined microstructure after 17 years.However,curing and long-term exposure to the local natural environment reduced the frost resistance.Microstructural analyses of the laboratory concrete samples demonstrated that moderate-heat cement and fine fly ash(FA)particles were almost fully hydrated to form compact micro structures consisting of large quantities of homogeneous calcium(alumino)silicate hydrate(C-(A)-S-H)gels and a few crystals.No obvious interfacial transition zones were observed in the microstructure owing to the longterm pozzolanic reaction.This dense and homogenous microstructure was the crucial reason for the excellent long-term performance of the dam concrete.A high FA volume also played a significant role in the microstructural densification and performance growth of dam concrete at a later age.The concrete drilled from the dam surface exhibited a loose microstructure with higher microporosity,indicating that concrete directly exposed to the actual service environment suffered degradation caused by water and wind attacks.In this study,both macro-performance and microstructural analyses revealed that the application of moderate-heat cement and FA resulted in a dense and homogenous microstructure,which ensured the excellent long-term performance of concrete from the Three Gorges Dam after 17 years.Long-term exposure to an actual service environment may lead to microstructural degradation of the concrete surface.Therefore,the retained long-term dam concrete samples need to be further researched to better understand its microstructural evolution and development of its properties.

Climate state of the Three Gorges Region in the Yangtze River basin in 2022–2023

Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 were analyzed.For the TGR,the average annual temperature for 2022 and 2023 was 0.8℃ and 0.4℃ higher than normal,respectively,making them the two warmest years in the past decade.In 2022,the TGR experienced its warmest summer on record.The average air temperature was 2.4℃ higher than the average,and there were 24.8 days of above-average high temperature days during summer.Rainfall in the TGR varied significantly between 2022 and 2023.Annual rainfall was 18.4%below normal and drier than normal in most parts of the region.In contrast,the precipitation in 2023 was considerably higher than the long-term average,and above normal for almost the entire year.The average wind speed exhibited minimal variation between the two years.However,the number of foggy days and relative humidity increased in 2023 compared to 2022.In 2022–2023,the TGR mainly experienced meteorological disasters such as extreme high temperatures,regional heavy rain and flooding,overcast rain,and inverted spring chill.Analysis indicates that the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high were the two important drivers of the durative enhancement of record-breaking high temperature in the summer of 2022.

Characteristics and influencing mechanisms of production-living-ecological space dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA),Chongqing,China

The Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA)is an important ecological barrier in the Yangtze River Basin,China.Therefore,it is of great importance to understand the spatio-temporal variation and the driving factors of production-living-ecological spaces for sustainable and high-quality development in the TGRA.This study investigated the dynamic variation of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA by employing land use data in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2018,and detected the influencing factors by using the Geographic detector(GeoDetector).Results implied that the structure and dynamic trajectories of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA varied in both horizontal and vertical directions,and the study area was dominated by ecological space.A spatial orientation towards the northeast was detected in the evolution of production-living-ecological spaces during 2000-2018.In terms of quantity,the transition from ecological space(grassland and woodland)to agriculture land accounted for the largest proportion from 2000 to 2018.However,the reverse transition from agriculture land to ecological space has increased since 2000 with the efforts of“Grain for Green”.In terms of temporal scale,there was a fluctuating trend in production space with the continuous expansion of living space,while ecological space showed an inverted U-shaped trend during 2000-2018.The dynamic pattern of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA was influenced by both physical and socio-economic variables as basic determinants and dominant driving factors,respectively.Finally,the harmonization and protection of production-living-ecological spaces still require policy-makers’efforts.This work may have potential in advancing our understanding about land use conflicts,and provide a reference for rational layout of spatial functions and the realization of sustainable development in the TGRA.

Environmental heterogeneity and productivity drive the assemblage of benthic diatom:a case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir

Dam construction has a critical effect on river ecosystems in the world,resulting in a rapid decline in biodiversity and ecosystem health.However,the effect of dam construction on the assemblage pattern of benthic diatoms remains unclear.The benthic diatoms assemblages in the tributary backwater area of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)were investigated under low water level(LWL)and high water level(HWL)conditions.Results show that Discostella stelligera,Nitzschia palea,and Craticula subminuscula were dominant species in LWL,while Achnanthidium minutissimum and Nitzschia dissipata were dominant in HWL.Furthermore,environmental variables,productivity parameters,diversity indices,and community similarity were found significantly different between LWL and HWL periods.The Mantel test indicated that both environmental and spatial factors had significant effects on diatom communities in backwater area,while productivity was also a key driving force in LWL.The variation partitioning analysis(VPA)further demonstrated that environment factors could explain the largest variance of diatom assemblages in HWL(9%)and LWL(11%),followed by spatial factors.The relative importance of productivity to diatom community was significantly enhanced in LWL,but only a slight effect was found in HWL.These results indicate that the diatom assemblages were shaped by both environmental filtering and spatial factors.The relative importance of spatial factors depended on the degree of productivity.Therefore,the homogenization of diatom communities due to environmental disturbance,e.g.eutrophication and dam building,is the underlying mechanism in assembling the benthic diatoms.

近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程气候特征及长期变化规律

【目的】充分认识三峡地区区域暴雨过程的气候特征及长期变化规律对于科学防汛以及合理利用水资源具有重要意义。【方法】基于三峡地区33个国家级气象观测站1961—2022年逐日降水量资料和目前重庆市气候中心业务采用的区域性暴雨过程监测指标,对三峡地区区域性暴雨过程进行客观识别,并利用多种数理统计方法分析区域性暴雨过程的气候特征和长期变化规律。【结果】结果表明:(1)三峡地区近三分之二的暴雨以区域性过程形式出现,平均每年区域性暴雨过程有8.4次,主要出现在5—9月,尤以6—7月为集中发生时段。区域性暴雨过程首次开始日期多年平均为5月8日,末次结束日期为9月17日。平均每次过程的暴雨覆盖范围为8.6站,持续时间1.3 d,平均暴雨强度为74.7 mm/d。(2)三峡地区区域性暴雨过程年频次存在2~3 a和8 a左右的变化周期,年平均区域性暴雨过程覆盖范围存在4~6 a和8~11 a周期变化。(3)近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的首次开始日期显著提前,末次结束日期无明显变化,发生期显著变长;发生频次没有明显变化趋势、平均持续时间、平均覆盖范围、平均综合强度也均没有明显变化趋势,但平均暴雨强度呈增强趋势。(4)近62 a,三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的各项指标均未发生突变现象。【结论】研究成果为三峡地区防汛减灾、水资源管理以及回应三峡工程对局地气候影响的社会关切等提供科学支撑。

Climate,Ecosystem and Migration:The Three Gorges Dam Study

The Three Gorges Dam,known as one of the biggest project items throughout the history,is a milestone for the development of China.Since it was completed in 2006,the dam has been persistently supplying ample electricity to the southern and eastern part of China.Despite its impressive output and benefits notwithstanding,we have to objectively pay our attention to the long-term impact that the Three Gorges Dam leaves to the place where we live,especially the influence on the climate,the ecosystem and the migration pattern of the reservoir area.

Review of the Relocation of General Zhang Fei’s Temple in View of the Three Gorges Dam Project

As a national cultural property,General Zhang Fei’s Temple is the largest ancient architectural complex in the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River.It was built in the Han Dynasty and has a long history of nearly 2,000 years.In 1994,the Chinese government launched the Three Gorges Dam project at the Yangtze River and implemented the largest relocation project for the General Zhang Fei Temple to prevent it from being submerged.The temple was relocated 32 kilometers upstream along with the local people of Yunyang County,and the historic environment was rebuilt on the opposite side of the migrant city of New Yunyang County.The temple was restored successfully and the tradition of offering sacrifices to General Zhang Fei continued in the local community.The relocation project lasted for 8 years and became the largest cultural heritage conservation project of the People’s Republic of China at the end of the 20th century.This paper comprehensively summarizes and reviews the project goals,implementation process,and project highlights of this relocation,so as to provide an important case reference for heritage conservation projects in the future.

1956—2022年鄱阳湖枯水情势演变及驱动机制分析

鄱阳湖枯水情势变化将极大影响区域水资源、水环境和水生态安全状态。复杂条件下鄱阳湖水文极端事件成因分析与灾害预警是当前亟待突破的难点。本文基于湖区年补水-退水水文过程分析,运用“江湖关系”分期分析等方法,探究了湖区枯水情势演变规律和驱动机制。结果显示:(1)后三峡时期,湖区枯水情势显著加剧,星子站年最低水位平均下降5.7%,低水烈度、低水天数平均增加36.9%、26.6%;(2)单因素分析中,湖区低水天数受长江水流条件的影响大于湖区最低水位、低水烈度;多因素分析中,6个解释因子综合解释了上述3个湖区枯水特征量的演变,相应回归模型的R 2依次为0.83、0.83、0.70;(3)贡献分析表明,近20年的枯水整体加剧趋势主要源于长江水流条件改变的综合影响,以湖区年最低水位减小为例,江湖水位流量关系变异贡献138.0%,三峡水库蓄水期汉口径流减小贡献8.4%,三峡水库补水期汉口径流增加(缓解)贡献-34.2%。本研究将为鄱阳湖的枯水情势驱动机制解耦、干旱预警研究提供参考。

三峡水库小江回水区水华暴发期浮游植物群落结构及其与环境因子的关系

三峡水库蓄水以来,支流水华频发,尤以小江情况最为严重,给三峡库区的生态安全带来较大隐患。为探究支流水华暴发特征和主控因素,于20142021年小江水华暴发期间在小江高阳江段进行浮游植物及环境因子调查,并使用单因素方差分析、聚类分析、百分比相似性分析以及基于距离的线性模型等方法,对小江水华暴发期间浮游植物和环境因子在不同年份不同水层间的差异以及二者的关系进行研究。结果表明:小江水华暴发期内,浮游植物的种类数在43~70种之间,其中2015年蓝藻种类数明显减少,2018年以后硅藻种类数明显减少;采样期间浮游植物平均细胞密度在0.66×10^(6)~61.28×10^(6)cells/L之间,同期表层细胞密度明显高于中层和底层;各层水体间水华微囊藻、铜绿微囊藻、不定微囊藻等10种藻的密度存在明显差异,是主要差异种;显著影响表层、中层和底层浮游植物群落结构变动的环境因子是水位的日平均变幅;水位的日平均变幅与藻类优势种拟合关系显示,当日水位下降幅度在0.5 m以上时,浮游植物平均密度会呈指数级减少。研究结果可为三峡库区支流水华的防控提供数据支持。

三峡水库清淤及淤积泥沙综合利用可行性研究

库容保持是水库发挥防洪、发电、航运、水资源利用等功能及综合效益的重要保障。三峡水库库容是极其宝贵的战略资源,根据实测资料分析,阐明了三峡水库运行以来库区泥沙淤积特征,基于三峡库区不同库段泥沙淤积特点和淤积泥沙适宜的利用途径分析,提出了三峡库区分段分类淤积泥沙利用总体方案。建议尽快编制三峡水库清淤及淤积泥沙综合利用总体实施方案,推进库区清淤及排沙试点工作并逐步推广实施,深入研究淤积泥沙低成本材料利用技术,为保障三峡水库库容安全以及综合效益的可持续发挥提供支撑。

周期性水位波动对三峡水库消落带土壤有机碳含量和密度的影响

为探究水位波动对三峡水库消落带土壤有机碳的影响,在三峡水库消落带采集和测定了受不同水淹强度影响的石灰土、紫色土、黄壤及其植物样品,并运用Kruskal-Wallis非参数检验和基于冗余分析的典范分析等方法进行了研究。结果表明:周期性水淹增加了石灰土和紫色土的有机碳含量和密度,但降低了黄壤的有机碳含量和密度。此外,石灰土的有机碳分布还受地上生物量、土壤pH和土层深度的影响,紫色土的有机碳分布还受土层深度和地上生物量的影响,而黄壤的有机碳含量和密度则与地上生物量、土层深度和地下生物量有关。总之,周期性水位波动对消落带土壤有机碳影响深刻,但土壤类型分异了有机碳对水位波动的响应。

三峡移民文化在高校立德树人中的实践探究——以重庆地区部分高校为例

三峡移民文化作为三峡文化中重要的组成部分,刻烙着岁月的痕迹、承载着三峡库区建设的历史记忆,它既是三峡库区发展的见证,又是珍贵的文化资源和精神财富。保护三峡移民文化,延续三峡移民精神血脉是高校落实立德树人根本任务的重要内容。因此,应弘扬移民文化、传承红色基因,在合理安排育人内容的基础上,通过拓宽育人校内渠道、深化育人主题实践,创建育人网络平台三个方面,充分促进三峡移民文化的传承与发展,进一步提升大学生的实践探究能力,增强民族文化认同感。

干湿循环作用下红壤土孔隙结构与强度特性试验研究

【目的】周期性库水位升降使三峡库区消落带土体受反复干湿交替过程,为了分析干湿循环作用对土体的孔隙结构和强度特性的影响,【方法】针对三峡库区某滑坡消落带红壤土,开展反复干湿循环下的三轴试验和扫描电镜、核磁共振测试,分析干湿循环作用对红壤土微细观孔隙结构与强度特性的影响,研究土体孔隙结构演化规律及其与强度特性之间的关系。【结果】结果显示:干湿循环对消落带土体强度有明显弱化作用,随着干湿循环次数增加,土体剪切强度逐渐减小并趋于稳定;在干湿循环作用下,孔隙扩张向大孔隙演化,土颗粒间距增加,裂隙发育后团聚体崩解、分散为微小团聚体,孔隙间连通性增强,原有微观孔结构基本丧失,逐渐形成新的稳定孔隙结构状态。【结论】土体结构呈现明显的双重分形特征,土体黏聚力和内摩擦角与中巨孔隙分形维数呈现明显关联关系,干湿循环作用使中巨孔隙分布复杂程度降低,孔隙结构更松散,颗粒间咬合作用降低,黏聚力和内摩擦角减小。

1955-2021年期间长江中游枝城至螺山河段与三口洪道水沙输移变化规律

长江与洞庭湖之间存在复杂的江湖水沙交换关系,水沙变化引起江湖冲淤变化,从而对长江中游区域防洪、水资源利用、航运及水生态环境等产生较大影响。本文利用实测资料较为系统地分析了荆江与洞庭湖水沙输移变化规律,结果表明:1955-2021年期间枝城、沙市、螺山站年径流量变化趋势不明显,监利站年径流量增幅为17.4%,三口分流洪道与七里山站均以减少为主;1955-1989年期间枝城与沙市站年输沙量变化趋势不明显,监利站明显增加,三口分流洪道与七里山站明显减少,1990-2021年期间各站均显著减少,其中三峡工程运用后荆江河段(枝城站)、三口分流洪道、洞庭湖出湖及城螺河段年输沙量分别减少90.1%、90.2%、22.5%及76.6%;受水库下泄径流过程改变的影响,荆江河段、荆江三口分流洪道、洞庭湖出湖与城螺河段年内径流过程均呈不同程度的坦化,枯水期平均流量均显著增加,消落期平均流量稍有增加,汛期出现一定程度的减少,蓄水期稍有减少,下泄径流过程坦化以及2006、2011年特枯水年分别引起荆江三口年均分流量减少41.2亿和32.4亿m~3。随着三峡上游水库群陆续建成运用,荆江河段、三口分流洪道、洞庭湖出湖及城螺河段径流量将进一步坦化,由于干流河床泥沙补给逐渐减少,输沙量将进一步减少,预计长江与洞庭湖水沙输移变化规律将基本保持现有变化格局。

三峡库区蓄水前后夏季小时降水变化特征

利用国家气象信息中心小时降水资料,结合三峡库区地形的多样性,分析了库区蓄水前(1992—2002年)和蓄水后(2003—2021年)夏季(6—8月)小时降水时空变化以及不同类型强降水事件(HRE)变化特征。结果表明:蓄水后小时降水的降水量和频次减少,而强度增加;降水变化存在明显的地理分布规律,降水量、频次、强度在库区中北部增加,且多位于长江以北地区;降水量、频次在库区西南部减少,强度在库区中南部和西北部减弱,且多位于31°N以南。蓄水前后小时降水的日变化峰值时间位相的空间差异程度表现为降水强度>降水量>降水频次;蓄水后降水量、频次、强度呈增加趋势的站点增多,且降水量和强度的日变化峰值时间位相在高海拔山区具有位相前移特征。蓄水前后各等级小时降水的降水概率和降水占比变化不明显,其中降水概率在(0.1,0.5)mm等级最大,≥20 mm等级最小;降水占比在(1,5)mm等级最大,(0.1,0.5)mm等级最小,≥20 mm等级约为15%。蓄水后小时降水的日变化特征更加明显,其中≥20 mm等级的小时降水量和频次的双峰结构更为突出,其他等级的小时降水量和频次的峰值时间范围有扩大趋势,而各等级小时降水强度的次日尺度波动更频繁。蓄水前后HRE均是短历时型最多,长历时型最少,且短历时型HRE多开始于下午,中历时型和长历时型HRE多开始于夜间;蓄水后有利于HRE维持,短历时型HRE在中午和下午开始的概率增加,中历时型和长历时型HRE在清晨开始的概率增加。

高海拔深切峡谷典型季节风参数日变化特征

为确定高海拔深切峡谷典型季节风特性参数的日变化特征,依托青藏高原某横跨雅鲁藏布江的大跨度桥梁为工程背景,开展桥位风特性现场实测,选取冬季、夏季没有较强天气系统作用的典型时段,统计分析风速、风向、风攻角、风速剖面等平均风参数,采用db8小波提取时变平均风速,通过非平稳风速模型分析紊流强度、积分尺度、紊流功率谱等脉动风参数。研究结果表明:峡谷风场风速、风向均呈现以天为周期的规律波动,风速在凌晨和上午相对较小,不同季节风速起落时间不一致,夏季、冬季风速分别在10:00、12:00开始逐渐增加,在20:00、21:00后开始快速减小,夏季风向基本稳定,冬季风向在15:00存在突变,风攻角与风速、风向显著相关,在冬季先减后增、15:00取最大负值,夏季相反;冬季风速剖面显著变化、夏季趋于平稳,指数律模型不能准确描述峡谷风速的垂直分布规律;夏季紊流强度趋于平稳,冬季先减后增、12:00取最小值,实测横风向、竖向紊流强度与顺风向比值高于规范推荐值;冬季、夏季紊流积分尺度变化趋势相同且与风速变化趋势一致,实测积分尺度远小于规范推荐值;归一化功率谱峰值频率随时间变化先减后增,功率谱可采用统一形式进行描述,并考虑其在频域内分布随季节、时间改变产生的偏移效果。

基于CNN-BiLSTM-Attention的三峡库区滑坡地表位移预测研究

地表位移预测在滑坡监测预警中具有重要意义,建立稳定可靠的滑坡位移预测模型是关键。本文基于卷积神经网络和注意力机制的滑坡位移预测方法,并以三峡库区黄泥巴蹬坎滑坡为例进行了验证。本文综合分析了该滑坡长达8年的降雨量、库水位和地表位移等监测数据,建立了结合卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)、双向长短期记忆(bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)网络和注意力机制(attention)的CNN-BiLSTM-Attention深度学习组合预测模型,采用了适应性学习率和正则化技术进行模型训练,提高了模型的泛化能力同时避免过拟合,并与传统LSTM模型进行对比验证。结果表明:相较于传统的机器学习和神经网络方法,该模型在滑坡位移预测精度上取得了显著提升,预测模型拟合优度(R^(2))达0.989,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)仅为0.059。

基于谈判博弈的三峡梯级蓄水期多目标调度

汛后蓄水期是三峡梯级防洪向兴利调度转换的重要时间窗口,不合理的蓄水调度将对梯级防洪、发电兴利、生态效益造成不利影响。本文以发电量最大、防洪库容占用比最小以及修正流量偏差最小作为三峡梯级蓄水期调度目标构建优化调度模型,进而引入谈判博弈模型将各个调度目标作为不同谈判主体,通过逐步缩减各调度目标期望效益值进行多轮谈判,最终得到纳什均衡调度方案。实例计算表明,应用谈判博弈模型能够求解得出三峡梯级蓄水期不同调度主体的最优蓄水调度方案,同时该蓄水调度方案也能够达到其他调度主体期望效益值,被其他目标主体所接受。研究成果可为三峡梯级多目标调度决策提供新的思路。