Constructing an assessment index system for strategic risk management in coal science and technology enterprises

Coal occupies a dominant position in China＇s national economy and is an essential energy source for future industrial development. To inform the efficient and sustainable development of the coal industry, this paper analyzes the sources of strategic risk for coal science and technology enterprises using 3 first-class indicators, 10 second-level indicators, and 37 observation points established through the existing research literature and experience. Moreover, in accordance to the obtained initial index data, the selected indicators have been tested and screened using reliability and membership degree analyses to remove redundant variables, avoid juxtaposition of risk factors at different levels, and reduce the influ- ence of some tiny risk factors for enterprise strategic risk. Then, factor analysis of external environment factor sub-scale was carried out. Factors are extracted according to a standard characteristic value greater than 1. Variables with high coefficients are classified into one factor category; and finally, 3 first-class indicators. 8 second-level indicators, and 37 observation noints are reconstructed.

Philosophical Reflection on Risks of Transgenic Technology

[Objective] The aim was to analyze risks of transgenic technology. [Method] Discussions on risks of transgenic technologies were conducted from perspective of philosophy. [Result] Mechanistic philosophy and reductionism are causes of reflection on risks of transgenic technology. Considering transgene is an artificial choice taking place of natural choice, it is inevitable for risks of transgenic technology to be found. In addition, social system constitutes the root for out-of-control of transgenic technology, hence, mechanism risk is the primary cause of transgenic risks. [Conclusion] It is inescapable for science view to be changed from arbitrary and lopsided to reflective and comprehensive and for technology view to be changed from exterminative and genesic to protective and symbiotic.

Reflections on a Science and Technology Agenda for 21st Century Disaster Risk Reduction Based on the Scientific Content of the 2016 UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–203

The first international conference for the post-2015 United Nations landmark agreements(Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, Sustainable Development Goals, and Paris Agreement on Climate Change) was held in January 2016 to discuss the role of science and technology in implementing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. The UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 aimed to discuss and endorse plans that maximize science's contribution to reducing disaster risks and losses in the coming 15 years and bring together the diversity of stakeholders producing and using disaster risk reduction(DRR) science and technology. This article describes the evolution of the role of science and technology in the policy process building up to the Sendai Framework adoption that resulted in an unprecedented emphasis on science in the text agreed on by 187 United Nations member states in March 2015 and endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly in June 2015. Contributions assembled by the Conference Organizing Committee and teams including the conference concept notes and the conference discussions that involved a broad range of scientists and decision makers are summarized in this article. The conference emphasized how partnerships and networks can advance multidisciplinary research and bring together science, policy, and practice; how disaster risk is understood, and how risks are assessed and early warning systems are designed; what data, standards, and innovative practices would be needed to measure and report on risk reduction; what research and capacity gaps exist and how difficulties in creating and using science for effective DRR can be overcome. The Science and Technology Conference achieved two main outcomes:(1) initiating the UNISDR Science and Technology Partnership for the implementation of the Sendai Framework; and(2) generating discussion and agreement regarding the content and endorsement process of the UNISDR Science and Technology Road Map to 2030.

Science and Technology Networks: A Helping Hand to Boost Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030?

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 underlines the importance of Science and Technology(S&T) and S&T networks for effective disaster risk reduction(DRR). The knowledge of existing S&T networks and their exact role in DRR,however, is limited. This opinion piece initiates a discussion on the role of S&T networks in the implementation of the Sendai Framework. The article highlights that current practice is oriented towards a narrative that emphasizes the potential of S&T for DRR and stresses a collaborative approach delivered through networks. But a true understanding of whether and how S&T networks can mobilize and enable S&T for DRR is missing. We call for a review of existing S&T networks for DRR and the development of good practice guidelines on S&T networks for DRR. This review should include knowledge on how to overcome common challenges and maximize the benefits, along with a framework for successful evaluation of such networks.This knowledge would provide much needed guidance for existing and emerging networks.

Thirty Years of Science,Technology,and Academia in Disaster Risk Reduction and Emerging Responsibilities

The 1990 initiation of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction marked its 30th year in 2019.The three decades since then have seen significant developments in science and technology and their incorporation into the decision making in the field of disaster risk reduction.The disasters that have occurred during that time have enhanced the importance of the field,and new research and innovations have evolved.This article summarizes this evolution through the review of specific milestones.While the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 provides opportunities for synergies with the sustainable development agenda,the science and technology communities have also changed their roles from advisory to co-designing and co-delivering solutions.Higher education plays an important role in developing new generations of professionals,and the role of thematic incubation in higher education institutions is highlighted along with the development of the professional society in disaster risk reduction.The evolution from Society 4.0(information age)to Society 5.0 will see an enhanced role of the technology-driven approach in disaster risk reduction,while traditional knowledge and indigenous technologies still remain valid for society.Scientists and science communities need to be more sensitive to changing the“last mile”concept to“first mile”thinking with respect to the users’needs and perspectives.

Global Community of Disaster Risk Reduction Scientists and Decision Makers Endorse a Science and Technology Partnership to Support the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030

At the first gathering of its kind on the role of science in implementing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030,over 750 scientists,policymakers,business people,and practitioners met in Geneva from January 27–29,2016.The UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 fea-

前沿科技的深层次伦理风险及其应对

当前,生命科技和人工智能等前沿科技的伦理风险日益引起国际社会的高度关切,我国的科技伦理治理正在走上制度化发展之路。为了更好地推进我国科技伦理治理工作,我们必须切实把握作为科技伦理治理重点的前沿科技的特征,揭示其所呈现出的一系列深层次伦理风险,从而进一步加强对科技社会系统的结构性特征的理解,探索和重构风险认知的底层逻辑。其一,充分认识新兴科技驱动的科技社会系统的革命性变化,以此理解前沿科技深层次伦理风险的结构性实质。其二,立足前沿科技伦理治理的开放性实践,将科技伦理的风险认知和规范视为相关群体不断更新的集体认知和工作假设。其三,强调前沿科技风险认知的系统性与可塑性,赋予科技和创新更大的可能性空间。由此,我们可以得出树立科学认知的伦理边界、设置合理的伦理法律门槛、形成具有开放性和整体性的治理机制、增进公众科技伦理素养以及遵循相称性原则等面向深层次科技伦理风险的预控和应对之道。

底线思维与科技审度:高风险社会治理的要义与进路

当前AI大爆发及其应对乏力表明,西方科技发展模式的缺陷与人类社会的脆弱及学界研究的薄弱,更加凸显人类风险防控机制存在诸多漏洞及其引发的科技危机与人类安全危机,已把人类带入高风险社会。用底线思维与刘大椿提出的科技审度予以破解:底线思维解决非共识下的议而不决;科技审度和审度思维所特有的执两用中、包容互补、多元开放、整合升级、共识决策等,可提供有效的治理对策。科技转型是治理科技风险的根本解决之道,科技审度可发挥重要的启发与引导作用,以构建真善美的新型科技发展模式,加快世界科学中心建设,据此总结出高风险社会治理的要义与进路,以作为科技风险治理的研究指南。

GaR视角下海洋产业结构升级、科技创新与海洋经济高质量发展

海洋产业结构升级是实现海洋经济高质量发展的关键,其能否促进海洋经济增长是海洋产业结构高质量转型的着力点。文章从在险增长视角,以我国沿海11个省(自治区、直辖市)为样本,通过构建面板分位数回归模型,研究海洋产业结构升级对GOP分布的影响,着重分析海洋经济下行风险和上升潜力的变化趋势。实证结果显示:海洋产业结构升级与短、中、长期海洋经济增长正相关,显著促进海洋经济高质量发展,且不同经济增长水平下,该促进作用具有异质性。而科技创新能够正向调节海洋产业结构升级与海洋经济增长的关系,助力海洋产业结构升级,降低中、短期海洋经济下行风险,并提高中、长期海洋经济上升潜力,发挥出海洋产业升级对海洋GaR的正向促进作用。因此,有关部门应完善海洋科技创新体系,加快推进海洋产业结构升级,对海洋经济高质量发展具有重要的意义。

面向新质生产力发展的科技创新治理:理论框架、实践特征与风险应对

新质生产力发展的关键在于完善我国科技创新治理体系。新发展背景下,更应深刻认识面向新质生产力发展的科技创新治理框架及特征。从治理原则、治理主体、治理客体、治理逻辑、治理目标、能力体现、动能所在构建出我国科技创新治理理论框架;从需求牵引、实现路径、创新风险、多元目标、价值导向、参与模式给出我国科技创新治理特征。此外,进一步从科技产业、市场制度、国际格局、创新过程、风险管控等方面理清我国科技创新治理的实践特征,研究发现可从韧性、张力、活力、弹性四个方面给出完善我国科技创新治理体系的具体对策。

城镇燃气管道腐蚀失效逻辑回归预测模型的构建与应用

为打破城镇燃气管道失效传统预测模型在信息采集和计算上的空间限制,利用云环境搭建了管道失效预测模型。首先对人机环管模型进行梳理,运用鱼骨图对影响城镇燃气管道失效的因素进行定性分析,并利用聚类分析方法得到管道失效的主要因素;然后收集城镇燃气事故数据和管道设计指标,结合广义灰色关联分析法提取影响城镇燃气管道失效的关键因素;最后在云环境中建立基于逻辑回归算法的管道失效预测模型,并通过实际案例验证模型的可行性。结果表明:基于逻辑回归算法的燃气管道失效预测模型准确率达到了89%,证明本模型适用于城镇燃气管道的失效预测。

社会信用治理模型选择:由风险预测制迈向行为积分制

模型是对实践的抽象化表达,内含实践的认知理念和价值判断。不同信用模型内含不同的信用治理理念并会产生不同的社会效果。风险预测制模型用于风险预测和秩序控制,在实际社会信用治理中产生过度收集数据、模型黑箱化、难以有效预测等问题。究其原因,在于技术设计过程未能有效反映治理需求,反而消解了人的主体性地位。社会信用治理需要从行为改变出发,迈向行为导向,转换治理范式。行为积分制模型以行为理论为支撑,通过将社区治理过程中的日常事项转化为积分激励事项,推动社区居民积极参与到社区经济、政治、社会、文化、生态等建设中,以共建推动共同治理,将共治行为转化为积分,进而实现治理成果的共享,提供了民主治理的新范式。在推动信用体系建设过程中,应更多考虑行为积分制模型的应用和推广。

更安全地发展科学技术与新质生产力——从新型科研体系安全赋能新质生产力开始

[目的/意义]在高科技、高风险社会,应该强调更安全地发展科学技术与新质生产力,强调安全的科学技术是第一生产力。[方法/过程]揭示当代主流科学只是“现象—分析”二维构成的科学,其所追求的真理是符合性真理,只能纠正理论与实验不一致的错,不能纠正知识体系发展不合理的错,不能纠正知识应用不合理的错。因此,需要从源头抓起,变革科研体系以安全赋能新质生产力发展。[结果/结论]第一步是由科技专家与人文和社会科学学者共同组成研发与创新的主体;学术创新体系崛起,与技术创新体系相辅相成;甄选一流人才担任学术带头人;建议实施“批示后追加研究制”,让一流智库专家充分发挥作用,快速提升我国的智库水平。

新兴技术伦理风险协同治理研究

新兴技术在造福人类社会的同时也引发了诸多伦理风险问题,防范和化解新兴技术伦理风险成为科技创新领域的重点内容,须高度重视和切实加强新兴技术伦理风险治理研究,以高效治理范式促进新兴技术良性发展和科技创新事业向善而行。通过阐释新兴技术伦理风险概念内涵和基本特征,剖析新兴技术伦理风险具体样态、生成缘由和管理问题,运用协同治理范式,从治理理念、治理主体、治理手段、治理过程和治理范围出发,提出新兴技术伦理风险协同治理实施路径,为有效应对科技创新领域伦理风险问题,着力提高新兴技术伦理风险治理效能,大力促进国家治理能力现代化提供理论指导和政策支持。

论科技伦理决策的系统性原则

在当前新兴科技的浪潮下,科技伦理实践正面临着前所未有的伦理挑战。为有效应对复杂多变的伦理问题,科技伦理决策者可以将系统性原则作为科技伦理决策的理论指导。遵循系统性原则,科技伦理决策者能够从全局出发,深入剖析多场域科技伦理风险及其相互影响,在实际决策中更加科学、系统地应对伦理挑战,从而提升科技伦理决策的合理性和有效性。

立场与情绪视角下科技黑天鹅事件舆情风险感知研究——以ChatGPT事件为例

在当前科技黑天鹅事件频发的背景下,公众舆情的有效情报对于预警、监测和引导科技舆情至关重要。应用大语言模型和预训练模型对舆情数据进行立场分析、情绪标注和主题挖掘,并结合社会冲突理论,从立场与情绪的角度深入分析科技黑天鹅事件可能引发的舆情风险。研究发现,公众对新技术持谨慎态度,主要担忧集中在伦理道德和就业压力上,这些担忧可能引发社会不安、加剧贫富分化。相较于一般舆情,科技舆情具有专业性、全球性特征以及对伦理道德的深远影响,其潜在风险更为突出。

生成式人工智能的科技安全风险与防范

生成式人工智能作为科技变革和产业赋能的重要引擎,凭借其强大的自然语言处理能力而具备广泛的应用前景。生成式人工智能具有以下科技安全风险:数字霸权和科技资源垄断等国家安全风险;算法黑箱和算法歧视等算法安全风险;人机互动过程人的自主决策意识丧失的科技伦理风险;跨境流动过程产生的数据和知识产权侵权风险。为构建可信任的生成式人工智能,应共同打造多元共治的生成式人工智能安全风险治理局面,形成风险识别及防范的逻辑闭环。在国家层面应以系统安全观为战略指引,分阶段稳步推进生成式人工智能科技安全立法。在行业层面应以场景理论为导向,分情景开展生成式人工智能的风险识别及其防控。在企业层面应将风险意识植入企业内部文化,探索多模块多层次的风险治理模式,落实企业合规责任。在用户层面应自觉以权利意识和自主决策为基本遵循。

人工智能深度伪造技术的法律风险防控

作为生成式人工智能的深度伪造技术给社会带来了新的风险与挑战。从类型学上看,深度伪造技术同时引发了基于个体权利谱系的微观法律风险、基于市场经济秩序的中观法律风险和基于国家公共安全的宏观法律风险,并依此形成了多样化和梯次性的法律风险格局。为有效化解风险,各国存在“自下而上型”分散治理模式、“自上而下型”垂直治理模式以及“多方参与型”合作治理模式。我国可通过“软法+硬法+算法”相结合的综合治理模式,实现对前述法律风险的有效防控:在软法层面,完善科技伦理制度,明确科技伦理的实体规范和程序规范;在硬法层面,通过“风险预防”与“风险控制”,强化风险防控的刚性约束;在算法层面,实现从样本数据采集到深度伪造内容发布的全过程技术监督,发挥技术的规范功能。

新时代中国特色科技伦理体系的构建及其价值意蕴

中国特色科技伦理体系建设是我国科技治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要要求。当前,世界科技创新进入新阶段,新兴科技伦理问题日益凸显,科技伦理治理成为国际社会共同关注的议题之一,这是建设中国特色科技伦理体系的现实逻辑基础。构建新时代中国特色科技伦理体系要坚持以马克思主义科技伦理思想为理论指导,以科技活动发展规律为客观遵循,从理论与实践两个维度深入分析其基本内容,从防范科技伦理治理风险,强化科技伦理教育培训机制,完善科技伦理审查监督体制,加强科技伦理国际合作四个方面入手,不断提升我国科技伦理治理能力和水平,进而保障科技创新活动行稳致远,促进科技更好造福人类。

中国政府引导基金助推创新驱动发展:新范式、障碍与对策建议

在新发展阶段,以政府引导基金制度为代表的新型举国体制,推动政府和市场在科技自立自强战略实施中的深度融合。随着引导基金管理运作模式的逐渐成熟,我国政府探索有别于美国的投资循环体系,逐步形成一套符合中国特色的投早投小投科技的投资新范式,成为我国科技强国建设的重要保障。本文回顾我国政府引导基金发展历程,立足探索中国特色的科技金融投资模式,从六个方面构建我国政府引导基金投资新范式。针对目前政府引导基金实际运行中影响其发挥创新驱动发展作用的障碍,研究得出相应机制优化及设计建议,为进一步提升政府引导基金运营效率、有效发挥作用提供参考。