Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

Changes in sediment discharge in a sediment-rich region of the Yellow River from 1955 to 2010: implications for further soil erosion control

The well-documented decrease in the discharge of sediment into the Yellow River has attracted considerable attention in recent years. The present study analyzed the spatial and temporal variation of sediment yield based on data from 46 hydrological stations in the sediment-rich region of the Yellow River from 1955 to 2010. The results showed that since 1970 sediment yield in the region has clearly decreased at different rates in the 45 sub-areas controlled by hydrological stations. The decrease in sediment yield was closely related to the intensity and extent of soil erosion control measures and rainstorms that occurred in different periods and sub-areas. The average sediment delivery modulus（SDM） in the study area decreased from 7,767.4 t/（km^2·a） in 1951–1969 to 980.5 t/（km^2·a） in 2000–2010. Our study suggested that 65.5% of the study area with the SDM below 1,000 t/（km^2·a） is still necessary to control soil deterioration caused by erosion, and soil erosion control measures should be further strengthened in the areas with the SDM above 1,000 t/（km^2·a）.