Non-crossing Quantile Regression Neural Network as a Calibration Tool for Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.

A real-time calibration method based on time-to-digital converter for accelerator timing system

The high-intensity heavy-ion accelerator facility(HIAF)is a scientific research facility complex composed of multiple cas-cade accelerators of different types,which pose a scheduling problem for devices distributed over a certain range of 2 km,involving over a hundred devices.The white rabbit,a technology-enhancing Gigabit Ethernet,has shown the capability of scheduling distributed timing devices but still faces the challenge of obtaining real-time synchronization calibration param-eters with high precision.This study presents a calibration system based on a time-to-digital converter implemented on an ARM-based System-on-Chip(SoC).The system consists of four multi-sample delay lines,a bubble-proof encoder,an edge controller for managing data from different channels,and a highly effective calibration module that benefits from the SoC architecture.The performance was evaluated with an average RMS precision of 5.51 ps by measuring the time intervals from 0 to 24,000 ps with 120,000 data for every test.The design presented in this study refines the calibration precision of the HIAF timing system.This eliminates the errors caused by manual calibration without efficiency loss and provides data support for fault diagnosis.It can also be easily tailored or ported to other devices for specific applications and provides more space for developing timing systems for particle accelerators,such as white rabbits on HIAF.

Wavelength calibration and spectral analysis of vacuum ultraviolet spectroscopy in EAST

A vacuum ultraviolet(VUV)spectroscopy with a focal length of 1 m has been engineered specifically for observing edge impurity emissions in Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak(EAST).In this study,wavelength calibration for the VUV spectroscopy is achieved utilizing a zinc lamp.The grating angle and charge-coupled device(CCD)position are carefully calibrated for different wavelength positions.The wavelength calibration of the VUV spectroscopy is crucial for improving the accuracy of impurity spectral data,and is required to identify more impurity spectral lines for impurity transport research.Impurity spectra of EAST plasmas have also been obtained in the wavelength range of 50–300 nm with relatively high spectral resolution.It is found that the impurity emissions in the edge region are still dominated by low-Z impurities,such as carbon,oxygen,and nitrogen,albeit with the application of fulltungsten divertors on the EAST tokamak.

A Weakly-Supervised Crowd Density Estimation Method Based on Two-Stage Linear Feature Calibration

In a crowd density estimation dataset,the annotation of crowd locations is an extremely laborious task,and they are not taken into the evaluation metrics.In this paper,we aim to reduce the annotation cost of crowd datasets,and propose a crowd density estimation method based on weakly-supervised learning,in the absence of crowd position supervision information,which directly reduces the number of crowds by using the number of pedestrians in the image as the supervised information.For this purpose,we design a new training method,which exploits the correlation between global and local image features by incremental learning to train the network.Specifically,we design a parent-child network(PC-Net)focusing on the global and local image respectively,and propose a linear feature calibration structure to train the PC-Net simultaneously,and the child network learns feature transfer factors and feature bias weights,and uses the transfer factors and bias weights to linearly feature calibrate the features extracted from the Parent network,to improve the convergence of the network by using local features hidden in the crowd images.In addition,we use the pyramid vision transformer as the backbone of the PC-Net to extract crowd features at different levels,and design a global-local feature loss function(L2).We combine it with a crowd counting loss(LC)to enhance the sensitivity of the network to crowd features during the training process,which effectively improves the accuracy of crowd density estimation.The experimental results show that the PC-Net significantly reduces the gap between fullysupervised and weakly-supervised crowd density estimation,and outperforms the comparison methods on five datasets of Shanghai Tech Part A,ShanghaiTech Part B,UCF_CC_50,UCF_QNRF and JHU-CROWD++.

A new calibration method for radon detector in seismic systems

Radon observation is an important measurement item of seismic precursor network observation.The radon detector calibration is a key technical link for ensuring radon observation accuracy.At present,the radon detector calibration in seismic systems in China is faced with a series of bottleneck problems,such as aging and scrap,acquisition difficulties,high supervision costs,and transportation limitations of radon sources.As a result,a large number of radon detectors cannot be accurately calibrated regularly,seriously affecting the accuracy and reliability of radon observation data in China.To solve this problem,a new calibration method for radon detectors was established.The advantage of this method is that the dangerous radioactive substance,i.e.,the radon source,can be avoided,but only“standard instruments”and water samples with certain dissolved radon concentrations can be used to realize radon detector calibration.This method avoids the risk of radioactive leakage and solves the current widespread difficulties and bottleneck of radon detector calibration in seismic systems in China.The comparison experiment with the traditional calibration method shows that the error of the calibration coefficient obtained by the new method is less than 5%compared with that by the traditional method,which meets the requirements of seismic observation systems,confirming the reliability of the new method.This new method can completely replace the traditional calibration method of using a radon source in seismic systems.

Kinematic calibration under the expectation maximization framework for exoskeletal inertial motion capture system

This study presents a kinematic calibration method for exoskeletal inertial motion capture (EI-MoCap) system with considering the random colored noise such as gyroscopic drift.In this method, the geometric parameters are calibrated by the traditional calibration method at first. Then, in order to calibrate the parameters affected by the random colored noise, the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is introduced. Through the use of geometric parameters calibrated by the traditional calibration method, the iterations under the EM framework are decreased and the efficiency of the proposed method on embedded system is improved. The performance of the proposed kinematic calibration method is compared to the traditional calibration method. Furthermore, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified on the EI-MoCap system. The simulation and experiment demonstrate that the motion capture precision is significantly improved by 16.79%and 7.16%respectively in comparison to the traditional calibration method.

Calibration of CO and CO2 Monitors Used in Periodic Inspection of Vehicles at Fixed Stations for Environmental Control

Global efforts for environmental cleanliness through the control of gaseous emissions from vehicles are gaining momentum and attracting increasing attention. Calibration plays a crucial role in these efforts by ensuring the quantitative assessment of emissions for informed decisions on environmental treatments. This paper describes a method for the calibration of CO/CO2 monitors used for periodic inspections of vehicles in cites. The calibration was performed in the selected ranges: 900 - 12,000 µmol/mol for CO and 2000 - 20,000 µmol/mol for CO2. The traceability of the measurement results to the SI units was ensured by using certified reference materials from CO/N2 and CO2/N2 primary gas mixtures. The method performance was evaluated by assessing its linearity, accuracy, precision, bias, and uncertainty of the calibration results. The calibration data exhibited a strong linear trend with R² values close to 1, indicating an excellent fit between the measured values and the calibration lines. Precision, expressed as relative standard deviation (%RSD), ranged from 0.48 to 4.56% for CO and from 0.97 to 3.53% for CO2, staying well below the 5% threshold for reporting results at a 95% confidence level. Accuracy measured as percent recovery, was consistently high (≥ 99.1%) for CO and ranged from 84.90% to 101.54% across the calibration range for CO2. In addition, the method exhibited minimal bias for both CO and CO2 calibrations and thus provided a reliable and accurate approach for calibrating CO/CO2 monitors used in vehicle inspections. Thus, it ensures the effectiveness of exhaust emission control for better environment.

Parameter calibration of the tensile-shear interactive damage constitutive model for sandstone failure

The tensile-shear interactive damage(TSID)model is a novel and powerful constitutive model for rock-like materials.This study proposes a methodology to calibrate the TSID model parameters to simulate sandstone.The basic parameters of sandstone are determined through a series of static and dynamic tests,including uniaxial compression,Brazilian disc,triaxial compression under varying confining pressures,hydrostatic compression,and dynamic compression and tensile tests with a split Hopkinson pressure bar.Based on the sandstone test results from this study and previous research,a step-by-step procedure for parameter calibration is outlined,which accounts for the categories of the strength surface,equation of state(EOS),strain rate effect,and damage.The calibrated parameters are verified through numerical tests that correspond to the experimental loading conditions.Consistency between numerical results and experimental data indicates the precision and reliability of the calibrated parameters.The methodology presented in this study is scientifically sound,straightforward,and essential for improving the TSID model.Furthermore,it has the potential to contribute to other rock constitutive models,particularly new user-defined models.

Global Calibration Method for Monocular Multi-View System Using Rotational Dual-Target

To make the problems of existing high requirements of calibration tools, complex global calibration process addressed for monocular multi-view visual measurement system during measurement, in the paper, a global calibration method is proposed for the geometric properties of rotational correlation motion and the absolute orientation of the field of view without over lap. Firstly, a dual-camera system is constructed for photographing and collecting the rotating image sequence of two flat targets rigidly connected by a long rod at different positions, and based on the known parameters, such as, target feature image, world coordinates, camera internal parameters and so on, then the global PnP optimization method is used to solve the rotation axis and the reference point at different positions;Then, the absolute orientation matrix is constructed based on the parameters of rotation axis, reference point and connecting rod length obtained by this method. In the end, the singular value decomposition method is used to find the optimal rotation matrix, and then get the translation matrix. It’s shown based on simulation and actual tests that in comparison with the existing methods, the maximum attitude and pose errors is 0.0083˚ and 0.3657 mm, respectively, which improves the accuracy by 27.8% and 24.4%, respectively. The calibration device in this paper is simple, and there are no parallel, vertical and coplanar requirements between multiple rotating positions. At the same time, in view of the calibration accuracy, the accuracy requirements of most application scenarios can be met.

Feasibility of maintaining satellite altimetry calibration site based on qianliyan islet at the Yellow Sea

The calibration of the sea surface height(SSH)measured by satellite altimeters is essential to understand altimeter biases.Many factors affects the construction and maintenance of a permanent calibration site.In order to calibrate Chinese satellite altimetry missions,the feasibility of maintaining a calibration site based on the Qianliyan islet in Yellow Sea of China is taken into account.The related calibration facilities,such as the permanent tide gauge,GNSS reference station and meteorological station,were already operated by the Ministry of Natural Resources of China.The data could be fully used for satellite altimeter calibration with small fiscal expenditure.In addition,the location and marine environments of Qianliyan were discussed.Finally,we used the Jason-3 mission to check the possibility of calibration works.The result indicates that the brightness temperatures of three channels measured by microwave radiometer(MWR)and the derived wet tropospheric correction varies smoothly,which means the land contamination to MWR could be ignored.The high frequency waveforms at the Qianliyan site present no obvious difference from the normal waveforms received by satellite radar altimeter over the open ocean.In conclusion,the Qianliyan islet will not influence satellite altimetry observation.Following these analyses,a possible layout and mechanism of the Qianliyan calibration site are proposed.

Model-Free Adaptive Frequency Calibration for Voltage-Controlled Oscillators

The operating frequency accuracy of the local oscillators is critical for the overall system performance in the communication systems.However,the high-precision oscillators could be too expensive for civil applications.In this paper,we propose a model-free adaptive frequency calibration framework for a voltage-controlled crystal oscillator(VCO)equipped with a time to digital converter(TDC),which can significantly improve the frequency accuracy of the VCO thus calibrated.The idea is to utilize a high-precision TDC to directly measure the VCO period which is then passed to a model-free method for working frequency calibration.One advantage of this method is that the working frequency calibration employs the system history of input/output(I/O)data,instead of establishing an accurate VCO voltagecontrolled oscillator model.Another advantage is the lightweight calibration method with low complexity such that it can be implemented on an MCU with limited computation capabilities.Experimental results show that the proposed calibration method can improve the frequency accuracy of a VCO from±20 ppm to±10 ppb,which indicates the promise of the modelfree adaptive frequency calibrator for VCOs.

Standard Dual Quaternion Optimization and Its Applications in Hand-Eye Calibration and SLAM

Several common dual quaternion functions,such as the power function,the magnitude function,the 2-norm function,and the kth largest eigenvalue of a dual quaternion Hermitian matrix,are standard dual quaternion functions,i.e.,the standard parts of their function values depend upon only the standard parts of their dual quaternion variables.Furthermore,the sum,product,minimum,maximum,and composite functions of two standard dual functions,the logarithm and the exponential of standard unit dual quaternion functions,are still standard dual quaternion functions.On the other hand,the dual quaternion optimization problem,where objective and constraint function values are dual numbers but variables are dual quaternions,naturally arises from applications.We show that to solve an equality constrained dual quaternion optimization(EQDQO)problem,we only need to solve two quaternion optimization problems.If the involved dual quaternion functions are all standard,the optimization problem is called a standard dual quaternion optimization problem,and some better results hold.Then,we show that the dual quaternion optimization problems arising from the hand-eye calibration problem and the simultaneous localization and mapping(SLAM)problem are equality constrained standard dual quaternion optimization problems.

认知诊断评估中Q矩阵理论及应用

Q矩阵是认知心理学与心理计量学结合的重要载体,Q矩阵在认知诊断中发挥着十分重要的作用。Q矩阵理论和应用研究近年来取得了重要进展。众多研究者从结构化到非结构化、属性二值到多值、简单到复杂模型、独立到一般结构、0-1到多级评分方面不断深入和拓展Q矩阵理论。Q矩阵理论也广泛应用于测验构念效度评价、计算机化自适应测验选题策略设计、Q矩阵学习和标定、认知诊断测验组卷等。与模型无关的Q矩阵理论和适合特定认知诊断模型下Q矩阵理论,以及最新Q矩阵理论的应用都值得深入研究。

一种基于DQN的去中心化优先级卸载策略

边缘计算(EC)可在网络边缘为用户提供低延迟、高响应的服务。因此,资源利用率高、时延低的任务卸载策略成为研究的热门方向。但大部分现有的任务卸载研究是基于中心化的架构,通过中心化设施制定卸载策略并进行资源调度,容易受到单点故障的影响,且会产生较多的能耗和较高的时延。针对以上问题,提出一种基于深度Q网络(DQN)的去中心化优先级(DP-DQN)卸载策略。首先,设置通信矩阵模拟现实中边缘服务器有限的通信状态;其次,通过对任务设定优先级,使任务可以在不同边缘服务器之间跳转,保证各边缘服务器均可以自主制定卸载策略,完成任务卸载的去中心化;最后,根据任务的跳转次数为任务分配更多的计算资源,提高资源利用效率和优化效果。为了验证所提策略的有效性,针对不同DQN下参数的收敛性能进行了研究对比,实验结果表明,在不同测试情景下,DP-DQN的性能均优于本地算法、完全贪婪算法和多目标任务卸载算法,性能可提升约11%~19%。

基于改进DQN算法的应召搜潜无人水面艇路径规划方法

针对应召反潜中无人水面艇航向和航速机动的情形,提出一种基于改进深度Q学习(Deep Q-learning,DQN)算法的无人艇路径规划方法。结合应召搜潜模型,引入改进的深度强化学习(Improved-DQN,I-DQN)算法,通过联合调整无人水面艇(Unmanned Surface Vessel,USV)的动作空间、动作选择策略和奖励等,获取一条最优路径。算法采用时变动态贪婪策略,根据环境和神经网络的学习效果自适应调整USV动作选择,提高全局搜索能力并避免陷入局部最优解;结合USV所处的障碍物环境和当前位置设置分段非线性奖惩函数,保证不避碰的同时提升算法收敛速度;增加贝塞尔算法对路径平滑处理。仿真结果表明,在相同环境下新方法规划效果优于DQN算法、A^(*)算法和人工势场算法,具有更好的稳定性、收敛性和安全性。

基于Q学习的高超声速飞行器自抗扰控制研究

为实现高超声速飞行器姿态自抗扰控制的参数整定,提出一种模糊Q学习算法。首先,采用强化学习中的Q学习算法来实现姿态自抗扰控制参数的离线闭环快速自适应整定;然后,根据模糊控制的思路,将控制参数划分为不同区域,通过设定奖励,不断更新Q表;最后,将训练好的Q表用于飞行器的控制。仿真结果表明,相对于传统的线性自抗扰控制(linear active disturbance rejection control,LADRC)和滑模控制,基于Q学习的LADRC省去了人工调试参数的繁琐过程,且仍具有良好的跟踪效果。蒙特卡罗仿真测试结果验证了基于Q学习的LADRC的鲁棒性。

基于分数阶Zener模型的VTI黏弹性介质频变Q效应数值模拟

黏弹性是地球介质的基本属性.地震波在黏弹性介质中传播会发生振幅衰减和速度频散,导致能量和走时出现变化,影响地震资料的准确成像及解释.因此,研究地震波在黏弹性介质中的传播规律具有重要意义.当前,主要利用常Q(不随频率变化)模型(CQM)表征地震波在地球介质中的传播规律,与高温、高压或含流体介质中观测到的Q随频率变化规律不符.基于分数阶Zener模型(FZM),通过改变分数阶大小,本文研究了Q的频变特性随分数阶的变化规律.考虑速度和Q各向异性,推导了VTI介质的FZM黏弹性波方程,提出了VTI介质的频变Q效应数值模拟方法.数值算例表明:当Q随频率变化较小时,FZM与CQM方法的结果相似;当Q随频率变化剧烈时,FZM与CQM方法的模拟结果差异较大.

基于自适应短时傅里叶变换的品质因子Q值估算方法

品质因子Q是描述地下介质对地震波吸收衰减强弱程度的参数,同时也是地层含油气性的重要标志。在地震资料Q估算中,常用的方法是短时傅里叶变换方法,当窗函数被选定以后,其时频分辨率就固定了。针对该问题,提出一种自适应窗短时傅里叶变换的方法,以获得更准确的瞬时中心频率,并利用峰值频移法来估算品质因子Q。首先,利用固定窗长的短时傅里叶变换来提取信号的瞬时中心频率作为初始频率;然后,根据初始频率自适应计算不同频率的窗长,并利用自适应窗长短时傅里叶变换来求取瞬时中心频率;最后,结合峰值频移法得到高分辨率的品质因子Q值。利用合成数据和实际数据进行了测试,结果表明,相比于固定时窗短时傅里叶变换方法,自适应短时傅里叶变换方法具有更好的时间和频率分辨率,可以获得更高分辨率的品质因子Q值。该结果可以为地下介质的研究提供更准确、可靠的工具,有助于更好地了解地下结构和油气资源分布情况。

基于UHPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap HRMS技术结合化学计量学方法的不同干燥处理杜仲叶成分分析

采用基于液质联用的非靶向代谢组学技术结合化学计量学数据自动解析软件AntDAS-LCHRMS分析了4种不同干燥处理(冻干、热泵烘干、电热烘干、晒干)杜仲叶样本中的化合物。杜仲叶样本数据由超高效液相色谱-四极杆-静电场轨道阱高分辨质谱(UHPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap HRMS)分别在正、负离子模式下进行采集,经AntDAS-LCHRMS软件解析,共鉴定出71种差异性化合物,经标准品验证确定40种化合物,包括环烯醚萜类、有机酸类、黄酮类、氨基酸类、核苷类、维生素类等9类物质。其中,正、负离子模式下均可识别并验证的化合物有车叶草苷、绿原酸、芦丁、异槲皮苷、车叶草苷酸、京尼平苷等25种化合物。层次聚类分析(HCA)及主成分分析(PCA)结果均显示,相同处理的杜仲叶样本各自聚成一类,不同处理的杜仲叶样本可明显区分。热图分析进一步揭示了不同干燥处理杜仲叶样本中差异性化合物的含量变化。晒干处理样本中苯丙氨酸及色氨酸等氨基酸类物质的水平较高;冻干及热泵烘干处理样本中有机酸类、环烯醚萜类、糖类等含量较高;电热烘干样本中核苷类、黄酮类物质的含量较高;黄酮类物质在冻干、热泵烘干及晒干样本中差异较小。研究结果为不同干燥处理杜仲叶的成分分析、品质评价及其开发应用提供了科学依据,也可为其他复杂药用植物体系的化学成分分析提供参考。

基于余弦相似度列置换的Q矩阵修正方法

国内外研究者已开发出多种有效的Q矩阵修正方法,但当Q矩阵错误率较高时,仍存在修正效果不佳的问题.该文将基于塔克一致性系数和余弦相似度的列置换方法融入4种Q矩阵修正方法(GDI、Hull、MLR-B和stepwise)中,并借助Q矩阵向量和元素正确率等指标来评价新方法的修正效果.蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟研究结果表明:在各种条件组合下,4种Q矩阵修正方法经过列置换后的修正效果得到明显提升,特别是当Q矩阵错误率较高时效果更加显著.