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A modified Kelvin impact model for pounding simulation of base-isolated building with adjacent structures 被引量:13
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作者 Ye Kun Li Li Zhu Hongping 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2009年第3期433-446,共14页
Base isolation can effectively reduce the seismic forces on a superstructure, particularly in lowto medium-rise buildings. However, under strong near-fault ground motions, pounding may occur at the isolation level bet... Base isolation can effectively reduce the seismic forces on a superstructure, particularly in lowto medium-rise buildings. However, under strong near-fault ground motions, pounding may occur at the isolation level between the baseisolated building (BIB) and its surrounding retaining walls. To effectively investigate the behavior of the BIB pounding with adjacent structures, after assessing some commonly used impact models, a modified Kelvin impact model is proposed in this paper. Relevant parameters in the modified Kelvin model are theoretically derived and numerically verified through a simple pounding case. At the same time, inelasticity of the isolated superstructure is introduced in order to accurately evaluate the potential damage to the superstructure caused by the pounding of the BIB with adjacent structures. The reliability of the modified Kelvin impact model is validated through numerical comparisons with other impact models. However, the difference between the numerical results from the various impact analytical models is not significant. Many numerical simulations of BIBs are conducted to investigate the influence of various design parameters and conditions on the peak inter-story drifts and floor accelerations during pounding. It is shown that pounding can substantially increase floor accelerations, especially at the ground floor where impacts occur. Higher modes of vibration are excited during poundings, increasing the inter-story drifts instead of keeping a nearly rigid-body motion of the superstructure. Furthermore, higher ductility demands can be imposed on lower floors of the superstructure. Moreover, impact stiffness seems to play a significant role in the acceleration response at the isolation level and the inter-story drifts of lower floors of the superstructure. Finally, the numerical results show that excessive flexibility of the isolation system used to minimize the floor accelerations may cause the BIB to be more susceptible to pounding under a limited seismic gap. 展开更多
关键词 structural pounding BASE-ISOLATION near-fault ground motions Kelvin impact model nonlinear damping
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Equivalent Kelvin Impact Model for Seismic Pounding Analysis of Bridges
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作者 DING Yang YUE Fuqing LI Zhongxian 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2006年第B09期83-87,共5页
Based on Hertz contact theory, a method to determine the parameters of Kelvin impact model for seismic pounding analysis of bridges is proposed. The impact stiffness of Kelvin model is determined by the ratio of maxim... Based on Hertz contact theory, a method to determine the parameters of Kelvin impact model for seismic pounding analysis of bridges is proposed. The impact stiffness of Kelvin model is determined by the ratio of maximum impact force to maximum contact deformation, which is calculated based on Hertz contact theory with considering the vibration effect. The restitution coefficient which has great influence on the damping coefficient of Kelvin impact model is investigated by numerical analysis. Numerical results indicate that the impact stiffness of Kelvin impact model increases with the increment of the Hertz contact stiffness, approaching velocity or the length ratio of short to long girders. Vibration effect has remarkable influence on the impact stiffness and cannot be neglected. The restitution coefficient decreases when approaching velocity increases or the length ratio of short girder to long girder decreasing. The practical ranges of impact stiffness and restitution coefficient are obtained as 3 × 10^8--6 × 10^8 N/m and 0.6-3.95 respectively. 展开更多
关键词 bridge seismic pounding impact model contact stiffness restitution coefficient
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Data-Driven Earthquake Multi-impact Modeling:A Comparison of Models
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作者 Hamish Patten Max Anderson Loake David Steinsaltz 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期421-433,共13页
In this study,a broad range of supervised machine learning and parametric statistical,geospatial,and non-geospatial models were applied to model both aggregated observed impact estimate data and satellite image-derive... In this study,a broad range of supervised machine learning and parametric statistical,geospatial,and non-geospatial models were applied to model both aggregated observed impact estimate data and satellite image-derived geolocated building damage data for earthquakes,via regression-and classification-based models,respectively.For the aggregated observational data,models were ranked via predictive performance of mortality,population displacement,building damage,and building destruction for 375 observations across 161 earthquakes in 61 countries.For the satellite image-derived data,models were ranked via classification performance(damaged/unaff ected)of 369,813 geolocated buildings for 26 earthquakes in 15 countries.Grouped k-fold,3-repeat cross validation was used to ensure out-of-sample predictive performance.Feature importance of several variables used as proxies for vulnerability to disasters indicates covariate utility.The 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquake event was used to explore model limitations for extreme events.However,applying the AdaBoost model on the 27,032 held-out buildings of the 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquake event,predictions had an AUC of 0.93.Therefore,without any geospatial,building-specific,or direct satellite image information,this model accurately classified building damage,with significantly improved performance over satellite image trained models found in the literature. 展开更多
关键词 Disaster risk modeling Earthquake impact models Machine learning Disaster statistics Satellite image-derived buildingdamage
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Modeling and Calculation of Impact Friction Caused by Corner Contact in Gear Transmission 被引量:9
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作者 ZHOU Changjiang CHEN Siyu 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第5期958-964,共7页
Corner contact in gear pair causes vibration and noise,which has attracted many attentions.However,teeth errors and deformation make it difficulty to determine the point situated at corner contact and study the mechan... Corner contact in gear pair causes vibration and noise,which has attracted many attentions.However,teeth errors and deformation make it difficulty to determine the point situated at corner contact and study the mechanism of teeth impact friction in the current researches.Based on the mechanism of corner contact,the process of corner contact is divided into two stages of impact and scratch,and the calculation model including gear equivalent error-combined deformation is established along the line of action.According to the distributive law,gear equivalent error is synthesized by base pitch error,normal backlash and tooth profile modification on the line of action.The combined tooth compliance of the first point lying in corner contact before the normal path is inversed along the line of action,on basis of the theory of engagement and the curve of tooth synthetic complianceload-history.Combined secondarily the equivalent error with the combined deflection,the position standard of the point situated at corner contact is probed.Then the impact positions and forces,from the beginning to the end during corner contact before the normal path,are calculated accurately.Due to the above results,the lash model during corner contact is founded,and the impact force and frictional coefficient are quantified.A numerical example is performed and the averaged impact friction coefficient based on the presented calculation method is validated.This research obtains the results which could be referenced to understand the complex mechanism of teeth impact friction and quantitative calculation of the friction force and coefficient,and to gear exact design for tribology. 展开更多
关键词 gear transmission corner contact oblique impact model impact friction frictional coefficient
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Impact failure models and application condition of trees in debris-flow hazard mitigation 被引量:1
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作者 JIN Ke CHEN Jian-gang +3 位作者 CHEN Xiao-qing ZHAO Wan-yu SI Guang-wu GONG Xing-long 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第7期1874-1885,共12页
Forestry has played an important role in hazard mitigation associated with debris flows.Most forest mitigation measures refer to the experience of soil and water conservation,which disregard the destructive effect of ... Forestry has played an important role in hazard mitigation associated with debris flows.Most forest mitigation measures refer to the experience of soil and water conservation,which disregard the destructive effect of debris flows,causing potentially serious consequences.Determination of the effect of a forest on reducing debris-flow velocity and even stopping debris flows requires distinguishing between when the debris flow will destroy the forest and when the trees will withstand the debris-flow impact force.In this paper,we summarized two impact failure models of a single tree: stem breakage and overturning.The influences of different tree sizes characteristics(stem base diameter,tree weight,and root failure radius) and debris-flow characteristics(density,velocity,flow depth,and boulder diameter) on tree failure were analyzed.The observations obtained from the model adopted in this study show that trees are more prone to stem breakage than overturning.With an increase in tree size,the ability to resist stem breakage and overturning increases.Debris-flow density influences the critical failure conditions of trees substantially less than the debrisflow velocity,depth,and boulder diameter.The application conditions of forests in debris-flow hazard mitigation were proposed based on the analysis of the model results.The proposed models were applied in the Xiajijiehaizi Gully as a case study,and the results explain the destruction of trees in the forest dispersing zone.This work provides references for implementing forest measures for debris-flow hazard mitigation. 展开更多
关键词 Trees impact failure model Forest application condition Debris flow mitigation
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Damage Initiation and Propagation in Composites Subjected to Low-Velocity Impact:Experimental Results,3D Dynamic Damage Model,and FEM Simulations 被引量:3
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作者 JIA Wenbin WEN Weidong FANG Lei 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 EI CSCD 2019年第3期488-499,共12页
A three-dimensional dynamic damage model that fits both small and large damage sizes is developed to predict impact damage initiation and propagation for each lamina of T300-carbon/epoxy laminations.First,13 specimens... A three-dimensional dynamic damage model that fits both small and large damage sizes is developed to predict impact damage initiation and propagation for each lamina of T300-carbon/epoxy laminations.First,13 specimens of the same lamination sequence are subjected to three different impact energies(10 J,15 J,and 20 J).After the impact,the laminates are inspected by the naked eye to observe the damage in the outer layers,and subsequently X-rayed to detect the inner damage.Next,the stress analysis of laminates subjected to impact loading is presented,based on the Hertz contact law and virtual displacement principle.Based on the analysis results,a three-dimensional dynamic damage model is proposed,including the Hou failure criteria and Camanho stiffness degradation model,to predict the impact damage shape and area.The numerical predictions of the damage shape and area show a relatively reasonable agreement with the experiments.Finally,the impact damage initiation and propagation for each lamina are investigated using this damage model,and the results improve the understanding of the impact process. 展开更多
关键词 COMPOSITES impact three-dimensional DYNAMIC DAMAGE model impact DAMAGE INITIATION and PROPAGATION
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Stability of rat models of fluid percussion-induced traumatic brain injury: comparison of three different impact forces 被引量:1
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作者 Yun-peng Lin Rong-cai Jiang Jian-ning Zhang 《Neural Regeneration Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第7期1088-1094,共7页
Fluid percussion-induced traumatic brain injury models have been widely used in experimental research for years. In an experiment, the stability of impaction is inevitably affected by factors such as the appearance of... Fluid percussion-induced traumatic brain injury models have been widely used in experimental research for years. In an experiment, the stability of impaction is inevitably affected by factors such as the appearance of liquid spikes. Management of impact pressure is a crucial factor that determines the stability of these models, and direction of impact control is another basic element. To improve experimental stability, we calculated a pressure curve by generating repeated impacts using a fluid percussion device at different pendulum angles. A stereotactic frame was used to control the direction of impact. We produced stable and reproducible models, including mild, moderate, and severe traumatic brain injury, using the MODEL01-B device at pendulum angles of 6°, 11° and 13°, with corresponding impact force values of 1.0 ± 0.11 atm(101.32 ± 11.16 k Pa), 2.6 ± 0.16 atm(263.44 ± 16.21 k Pa), and 3.6 ± 0.16 atm(364.77 ± 16.21 k Pa), respectively. Behavioral tests, hematoxylin-eosin staining, and magnetic resonance imaging revealed that models for different degrees of injury were consistent with the clinical properties of mild, moderate, and severe craniocerebral injuries. Using this method, we established fluid percussion models for different degrees of injury and stabilized pathological features based on precise power and direction control. 展开更多
关键词 nerve regeneration traumatic brain injury fluid percussion impact force pressure curve head fixed impact peak animal models neural regeneration
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Modeling of softsphere normal collisions with characteristic of coefficient of restitution dependent on impact velocity 被引量:3
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作者 Youhe Zhou 《Theoretical & Applied Mechanics Letters》 CAS 2013年第2期16-20,共5页
This letter presents a theoretical model of the normal (head-on) collisions between two soft spheres for predicting the experimental characteristic of the coefficient of restitution dependent on impact velocity. Aft... This letter presents a theoretical model of the normal (head-on) collisions between two soft spheres for predicting the experimental characteristic of the coefficient of restitution dependent on impact velocity. After the contact force law between the contacted spheres during a collision is phenomenologically formulated in terms of the compression or overlap displacement under considera- tion of an elastic-plastic loading and a plastic unloading subprocesses, the coefficient of restitution is gained by the dynamic equation of the contact process once an initial impact velocity is input. It is found that the theoretical predictions of the coefficient of restitution varying with the impact velocity are well in agreement with the existing experimental characteristics which are fitted by the explicit formula. 展开更多
关键词 soft spheres normal collisions coefficient of restitution impact velocity theoretical model
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Prediction of the environmental fate and aquatic ecological impact of nitrobenzene in the Songhua River using the modified AQUATOX model 被引量:20
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作者 LEI Bingli HUANG Shengbiao QIAO Min 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2008年第7期769-777,共9页
An accidental discharge of nitrobenzene happened in November 2005 in the Songhua River,China.The AQUATOX model was modified and adapted to simulate the time-dependent nitrobenzene distribution in this multimedia aquat... An accidental discharge of nitrobenzene happened in November 2005 in the Songhua River,China.The AQUATOX model was modified and adapted to simulate the time-dependent nitrobenzene distribution in this multimedia aquatic system and its potential ecological impacts.Nitrobenzene concentrations in flowing water,sediment,and biota were predicted.Based on the initial concentrations of nitrobenzene observed in the field during the accidental discharge,that is,0.167-1.47 mg/L at different river segments, the predic... 展开更多
关键词 NITROBENZENE environmental fate ecological impact the Songhua River AQUATOX model
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Evaluation of mobility impact on urban work zones using statistical models 被引量:1
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作者 LIU Pei ZHANG Jian +3 位作者 QU Jun-rong LU Jia-jian CHENG Yang TAN Hua-chun 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第6期1513-1521,共9页
This work correlated the detailed work zone location and time data from the Wis LCS system with the five-min inductive loop detector data. One-sample percentile value test and two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) test w... This work correlated the detailed work zone location and time data from the Wis LCS system with the five-min inductive loop detector data. One-sample percentile value test and two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) test were applied to compare the speed and flow characteristics between work zone and non-work zone conditions. Furthermore, we analyzed the mobility characteristics of freeway work zones within the urban area of Milwaukee, WI, USA. More than 50% of investigated work zones have experienced speed reduction and 15%-30% is necessary reduced volumes. Speed reduction was more significant within and at the downstream of work zones than at the upstream. 展开更多
关键词 ITS data MOBILITY impact WORK ZONE STATISTICAL model
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Latent Variable Modeling Approach for Assessing Social Impacts of Mine Closure 被引量:1
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作者 Mallikarjun Rao Pillalamarry Khanindra Pathak 《Open Journal of Applied Sciences》 2014年第14期573-587,共15页
Mining stimulates environmental and economic impacts on the neighboring community right from the inception to the closure of its operations. The society in the neighborhood of mining gradually adopts a characteristic ... Mining stimulates environmental and economic impacts on the neighboring community right from the inception to the closure of its operations. The society in the neighborhood of mining gradually adopts a characteristic life-style that is highly influenced by the mining. In order to sustain the societal development beyond the mine closure, it is necessary to plan post mining activities in the area. Thus, it is essential to predict the impacts of mine closure well before the closure. Many societal and family attributes are affected by mine closure. Impact on these attributes is reflected on the overall quality of life of the neighboring community. There are no adequate indicators and/or methodology available to measure social impacts of mine closure on a neighboring community. This paper made an attempt to develop such methodology to predict the degree of adverse effects of mine closure on the quality of life of neighboring communities using the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and the Latent Variables Interaction Model (LVM). 展开更多
关键词 MINE CLOSURE SOCIAL impactS Structural Equation modelING LATENT Variable modelING
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No Degeneracy of the Ground State for the Impact Parameter Model
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作者 Héctor C. Merino Juan Héctor Arredondo 《Applied Mathematics》 2011年第10期1191-1195,共5页
A time dependent Hamiltonian associated to the impact parameter model for the scattering of a light particle and two heavy ones is considered. Existence and non degeneracy of the ground state is shown.
关键词 impact PARAMETER model Non DEGENERACY of the GROUND STATE
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An Impact of Hydrostatic Extraction Scheme on BMRC's Global Spectral Model 被引量:1
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作者 盛华 William Bourke Terry Hart 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1992年第3期269-278,共10页
There are two important features in geophysical fluid dynamics. One is that the atmospheric and oceanic equations of motion include the Coriolis force; another is that they describe a stratified fluid. The hydrostatic... There are two important features in geophysical fluid dynamics. One is that the atmospheric and oceanic equations of motion include the Coriolis force; another is that they describe a stratified fluid. The hydrostatic extraction scheme, or standard stratification approximation, posed by Zeng (1979), reflects the second aspect of geophysical fluid dynamics. There exist two major advantages in this scheme; accurate computation of the pressure gradient force can be obtained over steep mountain slopes, and the accumulation error in vertical finite differencing can be reduced, especially near the tropopause.Chen et al (1987) introduced the hydrostatic extraction scheme into a global spectral model, which attained preliminary success at low resolution. Zhang and Sheng et al (1990) developed and improved the hydrostatic extraction scheme in a global spectral model, in which C0, the parameter that represents the stratification of the reference atmosphere, changes not only with height, but also with latitude. The scheme has been incorporated BMRC's global spectral model (IAPB). Four 5-day forecasts have been performed to test the IAPB with the hydrostatic extraction scheme. Objective verifications demonstrate a positive effect of the hydrostatic extration scheme on BMRC's model, particularly at upper levels, over the tropics and the Antartic region. 展开更多
关键词 An impact of Hydrostatic Extraction Scheme on BMRC’s Global Spectral model
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Impact of Vibration Models on Heat Capacities of HF Molecular System
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作者 Guo Yue Liu Ying Wu Bi Tao Liao 《Journal of Power and Energy Engineering》 2014年第9期1-7,共7页
Based on the analysis of completeness and finiteness of HF molecular vibrational levels, HF systemic vibrational heat capacity is studied with quantum statistical and full set of vibrational energy level determined AM... Based on the analysis of completeness and finiteness of HF molecular vibrational levels, HF systemic vibrational heat capacity is studied with quantum statistical and full set of vibrational energy level determined AM (algebraic method). The results show that correct vibrational description and vibrational energy level set of HF system are key factors in calculating heat capacity, HF heat capacity data determined by AM energy spectra {Eυ} are much superior to the ones of harmonic oscillator model, AM results are agreement with experiment data. 展开更多
关键词 impact of VIBRATION models on HEAT Capacities of HF MOLECULAR SYSTEM
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PROGRESSIVE FRACTURE MODELING OF THE FAILURE WAVE IN IMPACTED GLASS
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作者 Yao Guowen Liu Zhanfang Huang Peiyan 《Acta Mechanica Solida Sinica》 SCIE EI 2006年第1期69-74,共6页
The failure wave has been observed propagating in glass under impact loading since 1991. It is a continuous fracture zone which may be associated with the damage accumulation process during the propagation of shock wa... The failure wave has been observed propagating in glass under impact loading since 1991. It is a continuous fracture zone which may be associated with the damage accumulation process during the propagation of shock waves. A progressive fracture model was proposed to describe the failure wave formation and propagation in shocked glass considering its heterogeneous meso-structures. The original and. nucleated microcracks will expand along the pores and other defects with concomitant dilation when shock loading is below the Hugoniot Elastic Limit. The governing equation of the failure wave is characterized by inelastic bulk strain with material damage and fracture. And the inelastic bulk strain consists of dilatant strain from nucleation and expansion of microcracks and condensed strain from the collapse of the original pores. Numerical simulation of the free surface velocity was performed and found in good agreement with planar impact experiments on K9 glass at China Academy of Engineering Physics. And the longitudinal, lateral and shear stress histories upon the arrival of the failure wave were predicted, which present the diminished shear strength and lost spall strength in the failed layer. 展开更多
关键词 the failure wave progressive fracture model GLASS planar impact
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A DAMAGE ACCUMULATING MODELING OF FAILURE WAVES IN GLASS UNDER HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT
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作者 刘占芳 姚国文 詹先义 《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》 SCIE EI 2001年第9期1090-1095,共6页
The failure wave phenomenon was interpreted in glass media under the high velocity impact with the stress levels below the Hugoniot elastic limit. In view of the plate impact experimental observations a damage-accumul... The failure wave phenomenon was interpreted in glass media under the high velocity impact with the stress levels below the Hugoniot elastic limit. In view of the plate impact experimental observations a damage-accumulating model predominated by the deviatoric stress impulse was proposed while Heaviside function was adopted in the damage-accumulating model to describe the failure delay in the interior of Materials. Features of the failure layer and propagation mechanism as well as their dynamic characteristics were further presented. The reduction in failure wave propagation speed is pointed out as the reflected rarefaction waves reflect again from the failure layer boundary. 展开更多
关键词 high velocity impact failure wave damage-accumulating model
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Analytical dynamic model of elastic-plastic pipe-on-pipe impact
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作者 闫冬梅 孙玉鑫 杨嘉陵 《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》 SCIE EI 2013年第6期731-746,共16页
Abstract The dynamic response of pipe-on-pipe impact is described by an analytical model. The model considers the impact of a whipping pipe with one end hinged and the other end free on a simply-supported target pipe ... Abstract The dynamic response of pipe-on-pipe impact is described by an analytical model. The model considers the impact of a whipping pipe with one end hinged and the other end free on a simply-supported target pipe at its midpoint. Combining with the contact theory, the Laplace transformation, and the inverse Laplace transformation method, an analytical model based on the tubular beam theory is proposed to study the elastic-plastic behavior of a target pipe laterally impacted by a whipping pipe. Numerical simulations using the explicit finite element code MSC/DYTRAN are also performed. The results are coincident with the theoretical prediction. 展开更多
关键词 pipe impact dynamic response Laplace transformation analytical model
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Failure Impact,Availability and Cost Analysis of PONs Based on a Network Geometric Model 被引量:1
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作者 FERNANDEZ Alvaro STOL Norvald 《光子学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第S1期18-24,共7页
Passive Optical Networks(PONs)are considered as the preferred solution for broadband fibre-based access networks.This is because PONs present low cost deployment,low energy consumption and also meet high bandwidth dem... Passive Optical Networks(PONs)are considered as the preferred solution for broadband fibre-based access networks.This is because PONs present low cost deployment,low energy consumption and also meet high bandwidth demands from end users.In addition,end users expect a high availability for access networks,while operators are more concerned about reducing the failure impact(number of clients affected by failures).Moreover,operators are also interested in reducing the cost of the access network.This paper provides a deep insight into the consequences that the physical topology and design decisions cause on the availability,the failure impact and the cost of a PON.In order to do that,the physical layout of the PON deployment area is approximated by a network geometric model.A PON deployed according to the geometric model is then assessed in terms of failure impact,availability and cost.This way,the effects of different design decisions and the physical layout on these three parameters are evaluated.In addition,the tradeoffs between availability,failure impact and cost caused by planning decisions and the physical topology are identified and pinpointed. 展开更多
关键词 AVAILABILITY FAILURE impact CAPITAL Expenditures Passive Optical Networks NETWORK geometric model
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Application Study of Trajectory Plume Model in Atmospheric Environmental Impact Assessment
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作者 Xiaobin Cai Baozhang Liu +2 位作者 Xiaomao Yang Xiaozhou Zhou Liyong Mei 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2013年第5期33-36,共4页
[ Objective] The research aimed to study application of the trajectory plume model in atmospheric environmental impact assessment. [ Method] Trajectory plume model was used to retrospectively evaluate regional atmosph... [ Objective] The research aimed to study application of the trajectory plume model in atmospheric environmental impact assessment. [ Method] Trajectory plume model was used to retrospectively evaluate regional atmospheric improvement degree by fuel gas desulfurization project in Mawan Power Plant of Shenzhen. On this basis, we analyzed applicability of the model in atmospheric prediction of the construction project. [- Re- sult~ Under the situation of complex flow field and variable weather condition, the trajectory plume model displayed good prediction accuracy, to- gether with the use of flow field diagnosis model. Under complex weather condition, this model could be complementary to atmospheric environmen- tal quality prediction model recommended by new atmosphere guidelines, which had the value of popularization in future atmospheric environmental evaluation and planning. [ Conduslon~ Trajectory plume model had broad application potential in atmospheric environmental impact assessment. 展开更多
关键词 Trajectory plume model Flow field diagnosis model Atmospheric environmental impact assessment China
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IMPACT和CRASH模型对创伤性颅脑损伤患者预后评估价值的比较研究
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作者 刘彩霞 安婷婷 +3 位作者 刘静 李向阳 靳婕 徐兰娟 《中国全科医学》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第15期1843-1849,共7页
背景国际颅脑损伤预后临床测试研究(IMPACT)和重型颅脑损伤后皮质类固醇的随机化研究(CRASH模型是国际上具有影响力的创伤性颅脑损伤(TBI)预后预测模型,需要继续开发,完善和持续的外部验证,以确保对不同环境的普适性。目的同时在中国TB... 背景国际颅脑损伤预后临床测试研究(IMPACT)和重型颅脑损伤后皮质类固醇的随机化研究(CRASH模型是国际上具有影响力的创伤性颅脑损伤(TBI)预后预测模型,需要继续开发,完善和持续的外部验证,以确保对不同环境的普适性。目的同时在中国TBI人群中进行验证IMPACT和CRASH模型的预后评估价值并进行比较。方法选取2017—2019年在郑州大学附属郑州中心医院内接受治疗的TBI患者210例为研究对象,收集纳入患者的基本信息。随访观察患者14 d存活情况和6个月格拉斯哥预后评分(GOS),随访截止时间为2021年6月,终止事件为中途失访。绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)评估IMPACT和CRASH模型对TBI患者预后的预测效能,计算ROC曲线下面积(AUC)。采用Brier评分评价模型的校准度。结果患者平均年龄(54.0±17.4)岁,分别绘制IMPACT模型与CRASH模型预测TBI患者预后的ROC曲线,结果显示IMPACT核心模型、CT模型、实验室模型预测TBI患者6个月GOS预后不良的AUC分别为0.807(95%CI=0.747~0.866,P<0.001)、0.843(95%CI=0.789~0.897,P<0.001)、0.845(95%CI=0.793~0.897,P<0.001),Brier评分分别为0.179、0.164、0.161;IMPACT核心模型、CT模型、实验室模型预测TBI患者6个月死亡的AUC分别为0.868(95%CI=0.816~0.919,P<0.001)、0.896(95%CI=0.851~0.941,P<0.001)、0.892(95%CI=0.850~0.935,P<0.001),Brier评分分别为0.151、0.144、0.136。CRASH基本模型、CT模型预测TBI患者6个月GOS预后不良的AUC分别为0.747(95%CI=0.682~0.813,P<0.001)、0.766(95%CI=0.703~0.829,P<0.001),Brier评分分别为0.306、0.308;CRASH基本模型、CT模型预测TBI患者14 d死亡的AUC分别为0.791(95%CI=0.723~0.860,P<0.001)、0.797(95%CI=0.728~0.865,P<0.001);Brier评分分别为0.348、0.383。结论对于TBI患者的预后,IMPACT模型整体较CRASH模型显示出较好的预测能力。 展开更多
关键词 创伤和损伤 颅脑损伤 国际颅脑损伤预后临床测试研究 重型颅脑损伤后皮质类固醇的随机化研究 风险预测模型
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