China's Share of US Imports and Exchange Rate Pass-through to US Import Prices

The present paper investigates the effect of China＇s share of US imports on the aggregatelevel exchange rate pass-through to US import prices over the period from January 1999 to December 2008. The paper also focuses on the post-reform period, after 2005, allowing greater ftexibility of the RMB to explore the change in the role of the Chinese import share in determining the trend in the US exchange rate pass-through. Evidence reveals that China＇s share of US imports has a negative effect on the exchange rate pass-through. However, this negative effect has been moderated to a negligible level since China＇s exchange rate reform. An important implication is that the exchange rate flexibility of the RMB has been raised to a significant level may no longer cause distortion in the US competitive environment and prevent the USA from adjusting current accounts.

To What Extent Does the Market Price of Imported Fishmeal Affect the Market Price of Pisciculture Products in Japan？ The Case of Yellowtail and Sea Bream

This study investigates the extent of the influence of imported fishmeal price changes on the market price of pisciculture products. To date, there have been only a few insufficient researches on this topic in Japan. This paper aims to reveal the causality relationship between the market price of imported fishmeal and the market price of pisciculture products using the granger causality test, and to simulate the market price of pisciculture products using impulse response functions as the price of imported fishmeal increases. The results of the granger causality test and impulse response function analyses were as follows： （1） there is a market linkage from the price of imported fishmeal to the market price of sea bream, but no causality with the market price yellowtail; and （2） this has a positive impact on the market price of sea bream when the price of imported fishmeal changes. Moreover, spillover effects were noticed in this simple scenario （at a market price of 800 yen/kg and one unit shock of 1 yen） of about 3 yen/kg.

Low Oil Prices Drive up China's Crude Oil Imports

China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in the first half of 2016 despite an economic slowdown,and analysts largely attributed the surge to low prices,not strategic maneuvering.The country imported 186.5 million tons of crude oil in the first half of the year,23.15 million

China's meat and grain imports during 2000–2012 and beyond: A comparative perspective

This paper provides a review on China＇s meat trade for the 2000–2012 period and discusses its future development, with reference to China＇s grain trade. With marginal decreases in meat exports and slight increases in their imports, China＇s net imports of major meat products（including pork, beef, mutton and poultry but excluding meat offal） were just below 1 million tons in 2012, dwarfed by China＇s net imports of grains which reached 66.7 million tons in the same year. This slow growth in meat trade seems to contradict earlier expectations on increasing meat demand and imports, based upon projected shifts in consumption patterns driven by rapid per capita income growth. Several plausible explanations of this paradoxical trade pattern are offered, including mass imports of feed grains, persistent（but shrinking） gaps between Chinese and international meat prices, tariff barriers, and non-tariff measures. In the near future China may not be able to maintain such a lower profile on the world meat markets, as per capita income is projected to continue to rise and domestic production cost advantages erode due to rising labor costs. A model-based projection exercise indicates that under plausible assumptions China＇s meat imports may rise sharply by 2030.

Price transmission in hog and feed markets of China

There is an increasing demand for feed as the industrialization of hog production in China. Land scarcity limits China＇s ability to continue increasing its hog production without feed imports, particularly soybean, and the feed markets are increasingly integrated into the global market. This study performs an analysis of price transmission between the hog price in China and feed prices, specifically domestic maize price and international soybean price, from January 2000 to April 2014. We identified a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the three markets. However, further analyses show that there is no significant Granger causality between hog and feed market, and the long-run equilibrium partially results from Granger causality between the international soybean market and domestic maize market. This suggests that the domestic hog market has been distorted by different policies. The results also indicate that the efficiency of price transmission is very low and it takes about 11 months to correct one-half of any long-run disequilibrium for the hog market in China. Therefore, to stabilize hog price in China, only market intervention to regulate the maize and soybean markets would be insufficient and comprehensive measures need to be taken into account such as hog production modernization, agricultural insurance, epidemic surveillance etc.

Changing structure of China's meat imports

This paper discusses the determinants of meat imports of China. Results indicate that import demand is mostly determined by import price and real GDP. Imported price has a negative effect and real GDP has a positive influence on import quantity. Tariff does not have a significant effect. As GDP and consumption capacity increases, China has a large potential demand for meat imports. Some countries may gain if China＇s economy continues expanding, while others, like the United States, are the most sensitive to the trade policy of China.

Evaluating the effect of price and non-price policy intervention on rice cultivation in Sierra Leone: A supply response model approach

Rice is the main food for over 95 percent of the Sierra Leonean populace. It accounts for the largest portion of the agricultural GDP of the country. On the contrary, its cultivation has been shrinking over the past decades. Consequently, importation now becomes the main source of supplying the grain for local needs since its cultivation or production could no longer meet domestic request. The deterioration in the local cultivation of rice has had severe socio-economic implications such as higher consumer prices and balance of payment burden. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of price and other related nonprice policy intervention on rice cultivation in the country. The tools utilized for analyzing the problem comprise, a coefficient of protection analysis as well as a supply response analysis by means of a time series regression (for the period 1980-2011). Major limitations established negatively affecting rice output are price disincentives to cultivators, public expenditure and fertilizer consumption. From the above findings, rice cultivators should be accorded the necessary incentives to keep them more effective in the rice cultivation career. The food policy approach that had over the years depended on huge importation of rice should be reviewed in favor of domestic cultivation. Increasing local cultivation through a meaningful protection of cultivators can independently reduce the price of rice to the advantage of the final consumers. This study also recommends that public funds should be redirected away from rice import toward investments in its domestic cultivation.

2024年一季度中国涂料、颜料行业经济运行简析

简析了2024年第一季度我国涂料行业生产、经营和涂料、无机颜料行业进出口简况,并对丙烯酸乳液、环氧树脂等重点成膜物质市场进行了综述和预测。对2024年一季度涂料行业双指数进行了分析,并对二季度市场进行了预测。

中国对虾类产品进口贸易现状与对策建议

对虾是全球虾类贸易的重要产品之一,中国对虾养殖与贸易具有重要的风向标作用。为掌握近年来中国对虾类产品进口贸易变化特征,对2017—2021年贸易规模、进口来源、产品类型等进行了分析。主要结论为:中国进口对虾类产品呈现量额齐增的趋势,进口量年均增长88.15%,进口额年均增长72.32%。对虾类产品进口具有明显的周期性,分别形成1—6月份和7—12月份2个波动阶段。冻对虾和冻对虾仁是主要进口产品类型,这两类产品进口量额占比分别为96.83%和95.37%。中国南美白对虾养殖生产者价格6.99美元·kg-1,高于其他6个主要养殖国家生产者价格平均值39.31%。提出加强对虾类产品进口贸易监测,开展对虾产业战略研究,保障进口产品质量安全等对策建议,促进中国对虾养殖业和进口贸易协调稳定发展。

2023年中国石油焦市场分析及2024年预测

截至2023年年底,中国延迟焦化能力达到1.48亿吨/年。2023年中国石油焦产量达到3173万吨,主营炼厂产量占比为57%,地方炼厂占比43%;以高硫焦为主,占比80%以上。2023年,中国进口石油焦1602万吨,出口石油焦仅19万吨,净进口量1583万吨。2023年中国石油焦表观消费量达到4516万吨。虽然中国石油焦价格总体呈上升态势,但与上年相比,2023年中国石油焦价格暴跌。预计2024年中国石油焦市场的国内产量为3150万吨,净进口量为1400万吨,库存变化为下降200万吨,表观消费量为4750万吨。石油焦作为“减油增特”的特色炼油产品之一,对中国成品油市场调节能力非常有限,建议生产企业应该随着中国石油焦需求动能的变化,积极拓展负极材料相关客户,根据其数量、质量需求灵活调整石油焦生产和销售策略。

杭州市进口蜂蜜市场特征及价格行为分析

本研究旨在探索2014~2023年间杭州市进口蜂蜜市场特征和价格行为情况。通过深入分析从市场调研中收集的1246条数据,本文对不同品种、品牌和产地的进口蜂蜜以及其价格进行了细分比较。研究结果表明:进口蜂蜜的品种数量持续收缩,品牌淘汰率高,且原产地也趋于集中化,新西兰产的蜂蜜在市场上占据主导地位。这些因素共同反映了市场的高度竞争环境。此外,进口蜂蜜的价格整体呈上升趋势,不同品种和品牌之间的价格差异显著,且商场专柜的进口蜂蜜售价普遍高于超市的售价。本文为理解进口蜂蜜在国内市场的发展态势提供了一定的见解。

能源进口与中国绿色金融发展——基于TVP-VAR模型的分析

在当前国际环境不确定性加大的情况下,能源进口波动与国内绿色金融发展的相互影响成为一个应当切实关注的问题。通过建立包含能源进口、能源价格波动、经济政策不确定性和绿色金融发展在内的四变量时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型,实证分析2010-2022年主要化石能源进口与绿色金融发展之间的相互影响和脉冲响应关系。结果表明:(1)能源进口的扩张在短期内会对中国绿色金融市场造成波动,长期内会促进中国绿色金融市场的发展;而绿色金融的发展对能源进口具有正向的促进作用,和能源进口呈现良性的循环。(2)能源进口对绿色金融发展的作用随经济政策不确定性和能源价格指数波动的变化而变化,呈现出非线性特征。(3)在国际政治环境不稳定时,石油对于国内经济的影响表现突出,相对重要性高于煤炭和天然气。石油进口波动在长期情况下提高本国经济政策不确定性,但同时也促进绿色金融的发展。研究凸显了深化能源机制体制改革的重要意义,应充分发挥绿色金融市场对能源贸易的激励作用,并通过深化国际交流与合作来降低国际政策不确定性对中国绿色金融发展的影响。

对比较优势推动贸易全球化发展的新审视

比较优势在贸易全球化发展中扮演了非常重要的角色。本文首先回顾了从1970年至今贸易全球化发展的三个主要阶段,再以中美两国生产服装和饮料为例,阐述了比较优势推动贸易全球化发展过程中存在的比价机制,说明专业化生产和自由贸易在不提高各自劳动生产效率的情况下也能提高总产量和国民福利。最后,文章指出了比较优势理论的局限性,包括忽视贸易利益冲突、回避了动态变化、规模不经济现象以及未考虑环境和可持续发展因素,强调贸易全球化发展是一个复杂的系统,大多数发展中国家基于比较优势进行分工和贸易时需要破解比价机制不合理问题。

豆粕原料进口价格冲击对饲料产业链价格波动的影响研究

试验选取2017年1月—2022年2月共62个月度的豆粕原料进口价格与饲料产业链价格为样本,通过构建VAR模型,实证考察豆粕原料进口价格冲击对饲料产业链价格波动的影响效果。格兰杰因果效应显示,豆粕原料进口价格冲击对饲料产业链价格波动的影响具有滞后效应。脉冲效应表明,当豆粕原料进口价格受到1个标准差的正向冲击时,饲料产业链价格将从第2期出现0.0013的响应,并呈现持续上升态势,于第10期达到顶峰。冲击周期检验结果发现,豆粕原料进口价格变化对之后的饲料产业链价格波动具有显著的同向性影响,即豆粕原料进口价格冲击对饲料产业链价格具有正向推动作用。方差分解数据结果表明,在饲料产业链价格波动期间,饲料产业链价格自身发挥主导作用,贡献率呈现“先降后升”的态势;同时,豆粕原料进口价格冲击对饲料产业链价格波动的影响存在一定滞后期,从第3期开始显现,并于第9期达到顶峰,随后呈现下降趋势。文章提出强化产业种植技术支撑、合理规划饲料种植区域、优化饲料产业供应保障机制的建议,为稳定饲料产业价格提供有益参考。

2023年中国蜂蜜贸易现状及未来展望

近年来,受进口增长以及出口减少的影响,中国蜂蜜贸易顺差不断缩小。本文利用贸易数据分析贸易结构和特征、研判贸易形势,并结合近年蜂蜜产品国内市场调查数据、进出口检验检疫公报以及蜂蜜品质和成分的最新研究,对我国蜂蜜出口态势和市场形势进行研判。研究认为,技术性贸易壁垒在一定程度上制约了我国蜂蜜出口量价增长,但更重要的是蜂蜜市场细分和产品品牌创建对进出口市场有较大影响。我国蜂产业亟待建立产品标准化体系,开发我国特色蜂蜜品种的质量标准和有益成分,同时开展消费者科普活动,借鉴国外蜂蜜品牌建设经验,宣传我国特色蜂蜜的保健功能,推广成熟蜜生产方式,建立蜂产品优质优价市场机制。

国内与国际原料奶价格同频共振的实证检验

【目的】通过实证分析验证国际原料奶价格波动对国内原料奶价格的冲击效应,为中国积极应对国际原料奶价格波动风险提供决策参考。【方法】基于2006年6月—2023年6月的国内与国际原料奶价格数据,利用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型,考察国内与国际原料奶价格之间的动态时变关系,检验国际原料奶价格变化对国内原料奶价格的影响。【结果】从等间隔脉冲反应来看,随着期数的增加,国际原料奶价格对中国原料奶价格的正向冲击越来越大。从时点脉冲反应来看,2007年、2013年和2020年3个时期的国际原料奶价格对国内原料奶价格的影响具有差异性,但冲击趋势表现出相似性,均呈现峰状特征且冲击持续时间较长。3个前期时点对应的滞后期时点冲击效应表现相似。【结论】完善国际原料奶价格监测预警体系,有效把握国内奶源供给导向。注重短期冲击后的滞后期反向影响,维护原料奶市场的稳定性。保护国内原料奶的主体地位,降低国内市场对进口奶粉的依赖性。

中国超硬材料行业2023年运行报告

依托2023年国家宏观经济统计数据,对中国超硬产业进行深入分析,并结合中国、美国、欧洲和日本等地海关统计的进出口数据,探讨中国超硬材料行业的整体发展情况及其同国际先进水平的比较。研究发现:在国家宏观制造业表现出较强韧性、稳步增长的大背景下,我国超硬行业仍然面临较大的压力,整体指标不及预期,发展相对缓慢。下游市场的积极因素以光伏电池产量显著增长为代表,消极因素包括培育钻石市场低迷。除宝石级单晶和线锯产品外,其他产品均有单价上涨的情况出现,代表性企业的产品单价增幅普遍在10%~20%。部分超硬商品进出口单价悬殊,其在高端应用领域仍然有较大的发展潜力。

2023年苯乙烯市场分析

以2019一2023年数据为基础,分析预测了苯乙烯国内外生产、市场情况;重点对2023年国内苯乙烯的市场、进出口、价格进行了分析;指出预计未来国内苯乙烯供应将高于消费增速,行业竞争将会更加激烈。

我国铁矿石进口价格风险规避机制研究——以宝山钢铁股份有限公司为例

本文采用案例分析法、文献归纳法、定性与定量相结合的分析方法,对宝山钢铁股份有限公司的风险规避机制现状及不足进行分析,设计了一款基于期货套期保值的风险规避机制框架。本文针对铁矿石价格波动风险和汇率波动风险,从应用层面分析了实体企业期货套期保值的风险规避,设计了一款具有期货套期保值特点的风险规避机制框架,框架设计既考虑了铁矿石价格波动风险,又考虑了汇率波动风险,并从应用层面分析了不同期货品种在不同市场行情下的风险规避效果,还分析了套期保值的有效性并提出了评判标准。