A comprehensive and objective risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on an improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)is establis...A comprehensive and objective risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on an improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)is established to identify potential hazards in time.First,a barrier model and fault tree analysis are used to establish an index system for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation on the basis of five important factors:corrosion,external interference,material/construction,natural disasters,and function and operation.Next,the index weight for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation is computed by applying the improved AHP based on the five-scale method.Then,the TOPSIS of a multi-attribute decision-making theory is studied.The method for determining positive/negative ideal solutions and the normalized equation for benefit/cost indexes is improved to render TOPSIS applicable for the comprehensive risk evaluation of pipelines.The closeness coefficient of oil and gas pipelines is calculated by applying the improved TOPSIS.Finally,the weight and the closeness coefficient are combined to determine the risk level of pipelines.Empirical research using a long-distance pipeline as an example is conducted,and adjustment factors are used to verify the model.Results show that the risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on the improved AHP–TOPSIS is valuable and feasible.The model comprehensively considers the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines and provides comprehensive,rational,and scientific evaluation results.It represents a new decision-making method for systems engineering in pipeline enterprises and provides a comprehensive understanding of the safety status of oil and gas pipelines.The new system engineering decision-making method is important for preventing oil and gas pipeline accidents.展开更多
The relative importance of each pollution factor in analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method comes from pooling expert opinions in general. Because expert opinions are based on information and judgment criteria, dete...The relative importance of each pollution factor in analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method comes from pooling expert opinions in general. Because expert opinions are based on information and judgment criteria, determining their weight may lead to uncertainty.. Therefore, an improved AHP method had been developed. The process of the improved AHP method involved four key procedures. The weights of pollution factors were completely related to the objective monitoring data through the standardization of these procedures. The environmental comprehensive quality of water and sediment of Xuanwu Lake, Nanjing, China had been evaluated. The environmental quality comprehensive indices (EQCI) of the water in 1991-1995 and 1996-2000 were 3.32 and 1.85, respectively, indicating that the water quality improved. The EQCI of the sediment in 1995 and 2000 indicates that the sediment contamination decreased from 1995 to 2000. Such results agreed with the fact that the lake had been under comprehensive control. However, with the classical AHP method, the EQCI of the sediment in the northwestern part of the lake may have indicated that sediment contamination increased from 1995 to 2000. The discrepancy may have resulted from the judgment difference of the experts. The improved AHP method can avoid arbitrariness of subjective judgment and can reflect the real influential factors of environment pollution in different periods or regions.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC0805804,2017YFC0805801)
文摘A comprehensive and objective risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on an improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)is established to identify potential hazards in time.First,a barrier model and fault tree analysis are used to establish an index system for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation on the basis of five important factors:corrosion,external interference,material/construction,natural disasters,and function and operation.Next,the index weight for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation is computed by applying the improved AHP based on the five-scale method.Then,the TOPSIS of a multi-attribute decision-making theory is studied.The method for determining positive/negative ideal solutions and the normalized equation for benefit/cost indexes is improved to render TOPSIS applicable for the comprehensive risk evaluation of pipelines.The closeness coefficient of oil and gas pipelines is calculated by applying the improved TOPSIS.Finally,the weight and the closeness coefficient are combined to determine the risk level of pipelines.Empirical research using a long-distance pipeline as an example is conducted,and adjustment factors are used to verify the model.Results show that the risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on the improved AHP–TOPSIS is valuable and feasible.The model comprehensively considers the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines and provides comprehensive,rational,and scientific evaluation results.It represents a new decision-making method for systems engineering in pipeline enterprises and provides a comprehensive understanding of the safety status of oil and gas pipelines.The new system engineering decision-making method is important for preventing oil and gas pipeline accidents.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40771186.
文摘The relative importance of each pollution factor in analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method comes from pooling expert opinions in general. Because expert opinions are based on information and judgment criteria, determining their weight may lead to uncertainty.. Therefore, an improved AHP method had been developed. The process of the improved AHP method involved four key procedures. The weights of pollution factors were completely related to the objective monitoring data through the standardization of these procedures. The environmental comprehensive quality of water and sediment of Xuanwu Lake, Nanjing, China had been evaluated. The environmental quality comprehensive indices (EQCI) of the water in 1991-1995 and 1996-2000 were 3.32 and 1.85, respectively, indicating that the water quality improved. The EQCI of the sediment in 1995 and 2000 indicates that the sediment contamination decreased from 1995 to 2000. Such results agreed with the fact that the lake had been under comprehensive control. However, with the classical AHP method, the EQCI of the sediment in the northwestern part of the lake may have indicated that sediment contamination increased from 1995 to 2000. The discrepancy may have resulted from the judgment difference of the experts. The improved AHP method can avoid arbitrariness of subjective judgment and can reflect the real influential factors of environment pollution in different periods or regions.
