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Analysis of Major Driving Forces of Ecological Footprint Based on the STRIPAT Model and RR Method:A Case of Sichuan Province,Southwest China 被引量:6
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作者 TANG Wei ZHONG Xianghao LIU Shaoquan 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2011年第4期611-618,共8页
The Ecological Footprint(EF) equation provides useful accounting to analyze the relationship between human activities and the environment.Knowledge of the specific forces driving EF is not fully understood but the STI... The Ecological Footprint(EF) equation provides useful accounting to analyze the relationship between human activities and the environment.Knowledge of the specific forces driving EF is not fully understood but the STIRPAT model provides a simple framework for decomposing the impact of human activities on environment.We applied the EF model in Sichuan Province,China to assess the impact of human activities.The per capita EF increased by 2 fold in the 14 years between 1995 and 2008,but ecological capacity decreased in the same period,suggesting that the biologically productive area of Sichuan Province is inadequate to sustain human activities.According to the refined STIRPAT model,the hypothesized driving forces of EF include population size(P),GDP per capita(A1),quadratic term of GDP per capita(A2),percentage of GDP from industry(T1) and urbanization rate(T2).However,the multi-collinearity among these drivers could be a substantial problem which may reveal negative effect in the final results.Application of the Ridge Regression(RR) method to fit the STIRPAT model had the advantage of being able to avoid the collinearity among independent variables.The results showed that population is the principal driving force of EF variation in Sichuan Province and that urbanization and industrialization also have a positive association with the EF.Analysis of affluence elasticity(EEA) showed that the relationship betweenEF and economic growth was not curvilinear,suggesting that variation of EF does not follow an Environmental Kuznets Curve relative to economic growth in Sichuan Province. 展开更多
关键词 ecological footprint STIRTPAT model Ridge Regression Major driving forces Sichuan Province China
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Evaluation on Urban Land Ecological Security Based on the PSR Model and Matter-Element Analysis: A Case Study of Zhuhai, Guangdong, China 被引量:4
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作者 LI Shuang 《Journal of Landscape Research》 2019年第3期82-88,92,共8页
As one of the Special Economic Zones since the reform and opening up, Zhuhai has developed during the past 30 years. Its economic development, industrial structure and ecological environment have undergone great chang... As one of the Special Economic Zones since the reform and opening up, Zhuhai has developed during the past 30 years. Its economic development, industrial structure and ecological environment have undergone great changes. Research on changes in Zhuhai’s land ecological security is of great significance. Using relevant data from 2007-2012, this study established a land ecological security assessment system based on the PSR conceptual framework model. The system contained 18 indicators from 3 aspects according to the concrete features of Zhuhai. Then we used the matterelement analysis and the improved entropy weight to analyze and evaluate the land ecological security of Zhuhai. The results showed that: from 2007 to 2012, the levels of the land ecological security of Zhuhai were “secure”, and the value increased year by year;as the land ecological security response value increased, Zhuhai was capable of solving land ecosystem problems. However, it should be noted that the structure of land ecosystem in Zhuhai has not formed and that rapid expansion of construction land has caused the shortage of cultivated land and other issues. Measures should be taken to control the construction area, improve land intensive utilization and improve the land ecological security. 展开更多
关键词 Land ecological security PSR model MATTER-ELEMENT analysis Improved ENTROPY WEIGHT Zhuhai
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A Modified Model of Ecological Footprint Accounting and Its Application to Cropland in Jiangsu,China 被引量:21
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作者 LIU Qin-Pu LIN Zhen-Shan +1 位作者 FENG Nian-Hua LIU Yong-Mei 《Pedosphere》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第2期154-162,共9页
Based on the theory of emergy analysis,a modified model of ecological footprint accounting,termed emergetic ecological footprint(EMEF)in contrast to the conventional ecological footprint(EF)model,is formulated and app... Based on the theory of emergy analysis,a modified model of ecological footprint accounting,termed emergetic ecological footprint(EMEF)in contrast to the conventional ecological footprint(EF)model,is formulated and applied to a case study of Jiangsu cropland,China.Comparisons between the EF and the EMEF with respect to grain,cotton,and food oil were outlined.Per capita EF and EMEF of cropland were also presented to depict the resources consumption level by comparing the biocapacity(BC)or emergetic biocapacity(EMBC,a new BC calculation by emergy analysis) of the same area.In the meanwhile,the ecological sustainability index(ESI),a new concept initiated by the authors, was established in the modified model to indicate and compare the sustainability of cropland use at different levels and between different regions.The results from conventional EF showed that per capita EF of the cropland has exceeded its per capita BC in Jiangsu since 1986.In contrast,based on the EMBC,the per capita EMEF exceeded the per capita EMBC 5 years earlier.The ESIs of Jiangsu cropland use were between 0.7 and 0.4 by the conventional method,while the numbers were between 0.7 and 0.3 by the modified one.The fact that the results of the two methods were similar showed that the modified model was reasonable and feasible,although some principles of the EF and EMEF were quite different. Also,according to the realities of Jiangsu cropland use,the results from the modified model were more acceptable. 展开更多
关键词 农田 生态学足迹模型 江苏 土壤
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Improvement of Ecological Footprint Method and Application in Henan Province
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作者 Niu Shuhai, Jin Fengjun & Liu Yi Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 北大核心 2005年第1期44-48,共5页
The measure of sustainable development has always been an important and difficulty subject, and the major evaluation model has three types: indicators based on system theory and methods, indicators relied on economic ... The measure of sustainable development has always been an important and difficulty subject, and the major evaluation model has three types: indicators based on system theory and methods, indicators relied on economic valuation of the environment, sustainability indicators including biophysical assessments. The ecological footprint analysis initiated by William E. Rees, one of the indicators including biophysical assessments, gets rid of the defects of the other models. Ecological footprint has gradually become popular on account of the measuring indexes based on scientific theory, innovative thought-way and its wide adaptability. This paper introduces the conception and computation method, making a progress and making up for the method of ecological footprint, and finally, makes an application analyses through Henan province regional sustainable development. 展开更多
关键词 sustainable development ecological footprint input/occupancy-output model integrated development degree
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Ecological Footprint and Major Driving Forces in West Jilin Province, Northeast China 被引量:16
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作者 WANG Mingquan LIU Jingshuang +1 位作者 WANG Jinda ZHAO Guangying 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2010年第5期434-441,共8页
The environmental impact caused by local people (ecological footprint of consumption, EFc) and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens (ecological footprint of production, EFp) in West Jilin Provinc... The environmental impact caused by local people (ecological footprint of consumption, EFc) and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens (ecological footprint of production, EFp) in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint (EF) method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecological overshoots. Population (P), GDP per capita (A1), quadratic term of GDP per capita (A2), urbanization (Ta1), and quadratic term of urbanization (Ta2) were important influencing factors of EFc, among which Ta2 and Ta1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFc. A1, A2 and Ta2 were important influencing factors of EFp, among which A2 and A1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFp. In 1986-2006, the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis did not exist between A2 and EF (both EFc and EFp), but did between Ta2 and EF. The results indicate that enhancing the urbanization process and diversifying economic sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce the environmental impact of West Jilin Province. Moreover, importance should be attached to improve the eco-efficiency of resource exploitation and consumption. 展开更多
关键词 吉林省西部 生态足迹 驱动力 人均国内生产总值 中国 东北 环境库兹涅茨曲线 城市化进程
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Ecological footprint of Gansu Province,China between 1997 and 2002:changes and inducement 被引量:1
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作者 Shang Haiyang Chen Kegong +1 位作者 Xu Zhongmin Sam Garland-Renn 《Ecological Economy》 2009年第2期187-194,共8页
The calculation of Ecological Footprint (EF) on the basis of Input-Output model (I-O model) was advanced by Bicknell, and modif ied and improved by Ferng who corrected the footprint's aggregation to each sectors. ... The calculation of Ecological Footprint (EF) on the basis of Input-Output model (I-O model) was advanced by Bicknell, and modif ied and improved by Ferng who corrected the footprint's aggregation to each sectors. For the lack of suffi cient technique to deal with the trade between the research areas and the rest of the world, it is necessary to improve this method. And a dynamic analysis of the change of footprint based on I-O model, which could explore the factor impacting the footprint using the special advantage of I-O model, ought to be put into practice. After introducing the new method in detail, we calculate and compare the EF and the change of Gansu Province in the northwest of China in 1997 and 2002. The result shows that there was an increase of EF in 2002 caused by final domestic demand. Further, the increment in EF export was 2.0×105 ha and 1.6×106 ha in import. The out-of-region support dropped from 22.6% to 18.6%. We introduce three factors causing the EF change based on the character of I-O model: the productivity of the resource which is explained by the change of resource used to obtain one unit output in a sector, the improvement of the economics and the final demand. Finally, we find that the effects of the three factors on the EF change are not identical except the industry sectors and the change of factors in the agriculture and the industry sectors works notably. 展开更多
关键词 生态足迹 甘肃省 中国 投入产出模型 诱因 动态变化分析 工业部门 输入输出
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Multiple Scenarios Simulation of Global Ecological Footprint Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition Method
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作者 Longhui Xiang Chengzhong Chen 《Open Journal of Ecology》 2019年第11期506-520,共15页
A nonlinear dynamic simulative model has been discussed with variable cycles of entire world per capita ecological footprint taken from 1961 to 2003. The model was further classified and decomposed and extracted by th... A nonlinear dynamic simulative model has been discussed with variable cycles of entire world per capita ecological footprint taken from 1961 to 2003. The model was further classified and decomposed and extracted by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. To deal with the problems proposed in the Living Planet Report 2006, three ecological footprint scenarios are presented. Simulative numerical values of the three global per capita (GPC) ecological footprint scenarios are also analyzed based on the simulative model. The results show that: 1) The clear varying cycle of global per capita EF growth is 4.6 years, 9.5 years, 19.5 years and 41 years over the last 42 years;2) According to the business-as-usual scenario, if the global per capita increases positively with the constant growth, it is expected that GPC EF would be 3.262 gha in 2050. Assuming global per capita biocapacity (BC) to be 1.236 gha, global per capita ecological deficit (ED) would increase from 0.4 gha in 2003 to 2.026 gha in 2050;3) The slow-shift scenario shows global per capita EF would decrease from 2.23 gha in 2003 to 1.619 gha in 2080 and 1.406 gha in 2100, if the negative annual change rate of it is 0.447 percent. Global per capita ED would decrease from 0.4 gha in 2003 to 0.222 gha in 2080 and 0.038 gha in 2100, if global per capita BC is 1.397 gha;4) The rapid-reduction scenario depicts global per capita EF would decrease to 1.414 gha in 2050, if the negative annual change rate is 0.842% from 2003 to 2050. Assuming global per capita BC to be 1.461 gha, global per capita ecological reserve (ER) would be 0.047 gha, and overshoot would be eliminated in 2050. Global per capita EF would decrease to 1.054 gha in 2100, if the negative annual change rate is 0.438% from 2050 to 2100. Assuming global per capita BC to be 1.474 gha, GPC ER would be 0.420 gha. Then, wild species of the planet will be allocated nearly 28.5% of the planet’s biological productivity, which coincides with the results of Living Planet Report 2006. 展开更多
关键词 ecological footprint EMD Dynamic model Nonlinear SIMULATION
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Spatiotemporal analysis and multiple scenarios prediction of sustainable ecosystem in China based on ecological footprint method
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作者 Longhui Xiang Chengzhong Chen 《Resources and Environmental Economics》 2019年第2期71-79,共9页
Dynamic changes of sustainable ecosystem in China have been assessed with long-term series from 1949 to 2006, and the ecosystem sustainability of 30 provinces in 1986, 1996, 2002 and 2006 are analyzed with ecological ... Dynamic changes of sustainable ecosystem in China have been assessed with long-term series from 1949 to 2006, and the ecosystem sustainability of 30 provinces in 1986, 1996, 2002 and 2006 are analyzed with ecological footprint index (EFI) and ecological footprint efficiency (EFE). The two indices are proposed based on ecological footprint (EF) method. Then, the fluctuant cycles of per capita EF and bicapacity (BC) in China 1949-2006 are decomposed and extracted based on EMD method, and series nonlinear dynamic predictive models are presented with the cycles. Three Forecasting scenarios are analyzed based on their predictive models according to three EF scenarios presented in Living Planet Report 2006 published by WWF et al.(2006). Over last 57 years, China’s EFI has reduced sharply with fluctuation. The change of EFE is very slowly before 1980, subsequently, is sharply increased. There are 6, 5, 12, and 7 provinces which are running ecological surplus in 1986, 1996, 2002, and 2006, respectively. There are 14, 16, 11, and 16 provinces which EFI are smaller than -100% in 1986, 1996, 2002, and 2006, respectively. The provinces with the highest EFE are Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin, and the lowest are Xinjiang, Guizhou, Hainan, Ningxia, et al. in 1986, 1996, 2002, and 2006, respectively. The obvious undulation cycles of per capita EF in China are 4.8 years and 10.9 years, and the periods of per capita BC are 3.03 years, 8.35 years, 14.25 years, and 28.15 years. The business-as-usual scenario looks at the consequence that per capita ED would be 11.200hm2 and EFI would be -1307.19% in China in 2050. The slow-shift scenario shows per capita ED would be 0.728hm2 and EFI would be -84.96% in 2050. The rapid-reduce scenario shows per capita ED in China would be 0.498hm2 in 2050 and 0.261hm2 in 2100, respectively. EFI of rapid-reduce scenario would be -58.11% in 2050. China could denote sustainability at the global level if slow-shift scenario and rapid-reduce scenario are implemented. 展开更多
关键词 ecological footprint ecological footprint index ecological footprint efficiency empirical mode decomposition nonlinear dynamic PREDICTION model China
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可持续发展评价的生态踩占模型及Ecological Footprint一词的翻译 被引量:4
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作者 匡耀求 黄宁生 《热带地理》 2004年第3期298-300,F003,共4页
简要介绍了可持续发展评价的生态踩占模型,并与我国学者提出的基于资源承载力的可持续发展评价模型在方法论上做了比较。着重讨论了生态踩占模型中Ecologicfootprint一词的翻译,认为应根据上下文的意境将其分别译为"生态踩占"... 简要介绍了可持续发展评价的生态踩占模型,并与我国学者提出的基于资源承载力的可持续发展评价模型在方法论上做了比较。着重讨论了生态踩占模型中Ecologicfootprint一词的翻译,认为应根据上下文的意境将其分别译为"生态踩占"、"生态立足区"和"生态足迹"等。 展开更多
关键词 生态踩占 可持续发展 评价模型 翻译
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Dynamic Comparison and Trend analysis of Southeast Guizhou's Experimental Area of Eco-civilization Construction and the National Eco-efficiency
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作者 YANG Ting-feng ,ZHAO Yong-xu,XU Xiao-chao Kaili University,Kaili 560000,China 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2012年第5期76-78,共3页
In order to better understand the development level of eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou's experimental area of eco-civilization construction,we conduct dynamic comparison research of its eco-efficiency and the ... In order to better understand the development level of eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou's experimental area of eco-civilization construction,we conduct dynamic comparison research of its eco-efficiency and the national eco-efficiency,using single ratio method based on the ecological footprint model,to grasp the gap between its eco-efficiency and the national eco-efficiency,so that we can take appropriate countermeasures to improve eco-efficiency. The results show that in the period 1978-2010,the eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou's experimental area of eco-civilization construction was always lower than the national eco-efficiency; the long-time average annual value of its eco-efficiency was less than one half of that of the national eco-efficiency,with the absolute gap of 1 630. 095 yuan /hm 2 ,and the gap tended to widen year by year in the period 1978-2002 ( the gap increased from 276. 551 yuan /hm 2 in 1978 to peak of 3 227. 713 yuan /hm 2 in 2002,with an average annual increase of 118. 047 yuan /hm 2 ,and especially after 1992,the gap was particularly evident,with an average annual increase of 194.771 yuan/hm 2 ) ,but from 2003,the gap between the two tended to decrease. Based on the prediction results of grey system,in the period 2011-2025,the gap between the eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou's experimental area of eco-civilization construction and the national eco-efficiency will gradually narrow,and from 2019, the eco-efficiency in Southeast Guizhou's experimental area of eco-civilization construction will be higher than the national eco-efficiency. 展开更多
关键词 the ecological footprint model Single ratio method
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Study on Ecological Carrying Capacity of Land in Henan Province
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作者 Yanhua SONG Lei WANG Xihui YANG 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2022年第4期40-47,50,共9页
In order to explore the technical methods to improve the ecological carrying capacity of regional land under the premise of limited land use area,an open ecological footprint model is established based on the traditio... In order to explore the technical methods to improve the ecological carrying capacity of regional land under the premise of limited land use area,an open ecological footprint model is established based on the traditional ecological footprint model.Using the two models,this paper evaluates the ecological carrying capacity of Henan Province in 2017.The results indicate that the ecological productive footprint of cultivated land in Henan Province is much larger than the ecological carrying capacity,but the ecological consumption footprint is lower than the ecological carrying capacity.The open ecological footprint model can clearly distinguish the internal and the external ecological consumption footprint after corrected by the consumption adjustment coefficient and the land-use structure adjustment coefficient.Based on the open ecological footprint model,the ecological carrying capacity evaluation results of Henan Province are more realistic.The comprehensive ecological carrying capacity in Henan Province has a surplus,but there are significant differences among different land use types.The cultivated land has the largest ecological carrying capacity surplus,while the fossil energy land has a larger ecological carrying capacity deficit.In the process of achieving sustainable development,Henan Province should focus on reducing energy consumption and improving the ecological carrying capacity of fossil energy land.The paper concludes that the open ecological footprint model can simulate the ecological carrying capacity under different land use structures and different consumption structures.According to the simulation results,the technical methods to improve the ecological carrying capacity under the premise of limited land use scale can be proposed.The research can provide reference for land use structure adjustment,land use planning and land protection in Henan Province.It can also provide scientific basis for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin. 展开更多
关键词 ecological footprint ecological carrying capacity Open model Consumption adjustment coefficient Land-use structure adjustment coefficient
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Trends in per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949-2013
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作者 Yuan Cao Chengzhong Chen Xuguang Ge 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2017年第2期175-181,共7页
This paper proposes two concepts: the ecological footprint component index(EFCI) and the biocapacity component index(BCCI), based on the ecological footprint(EF) and Shannon entropy approaches. Per capita EFCI and BCC... This paper proposes two concepts: the ecological footprint component index(EFCI) and the biocapacity component index(BCCI), based on the ecological footprint(EF) and Shannon entropy approaches. Per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are analyzed using empirical mode decomposition(EMD). Nonlinear models of per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are presented and their cycles and predictions from 2014 to 2023 are analyzed. The results over the last 65 years show:(1) EFCI in China has increased constantly with fluctuations, while BCCI has slowly decreased. Their annual change rates are 2.81% and-1.26%, respectively. The increasing EFCI indicates a gradual improvement in China's sustainable development potential; the decreasing BCCI indicates severe environmental and population challenges.(2) The cycles of per capita EFCI have periods of 5.4 and 16.3 years, while cycles of per capita BCCI have periods of 3.6, 13,and 21.7 years. The predictive models indicate that EFCI will first decrease, reaching 0.02725 in2014, and will subsequently increase to 0.03261 in 2021. BCCI will increase, reaching 0.01365 in2014 and 0.01541 in 2022. EFCI and BCCI will reach 0.03037 and 0.01537, respectively, in 2023.Policymakers should ensure that the EFCI and BCCI increase in 2023. 展开更多
关键词 中国 脚印 生态 EFCI 模型显示 模式分解 发展潜力 活动范围
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Water resource utilization characteristics and driving factors in the Hainan Island
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作者 Dun Wang Li-xin Pei +3 位作者 Li-zhong Zhang Xi-wen Li Ze-heng Chen Yue-hu Zhou 《Journal of Groundwater Science and Engineering》 2023年第2期191-206,共16页
The scarcity of water resources caused by the unique topography and uneven rainfall distribution in Hainan Island has become a major factor restricting local development. In order to provide effective and scientific r... The scarcity of water resources caused by the unique topography and uneven rainfall distribution in Hainan Island has become a major factor restricting local development. In order to provide effective and scientific reference basis for the overall water resource utilization status and solving this problem, this study calculated the water resource utilization situation of Hainan Island from 2017 to 2021 in detail using methods including water resource ecological footprint analysis. Furthermore, a spatial correlation analysis was conducted to examine the island's water resource utilization characteristics, and the driving factors behind the changes in water resource utilization over the past five years were analyzed using the LMDI model. The results show that:(1) During the study period, the water resource ecological footprint in Hainan Island exhibited a slow growth trend, while the ecological carrying capacity showed a downward tendency.The per capita ecological deficit of water resources remains relatively high, and the water consumption per 10 000 yuan GDP in the whole land continues to decrease, indicating that the overall pressure on water resource demand remains high with significant regional differences accompanied by the efficiency of water resource utilization steadily improving at the same time;(2) Agricultural water use accounts for the highest proportion in the entire water use structure, while ecological water use represents the smallest share, with a year-on-year increase, indicating that Hainan Island highlights the agricultural development and is increasingly conscious of the ecological environment;(3) Significant spatial differentiation in water resource utilization characteristics exists in Hainan Island, with the western region being a hot spot aggregation area for per capita water resource ecological footprint, per capita ecological carrying capacity of water resources, water consumption per 10 000 yuan GDP, while it is a cold spot cluster area for per capita ecological deficit of water resources. The opposite holds true for the eastern region of Hainan Island;(4) Economic and technological factors have a major impact on the changes in water resource ecological footprint within the designated area. Among them, economic factors drive the growth of the water resource ecological footprint in Hainan Island, and exacerbate local water resource consumption, while technological factors negatively contribute to the amount of water resource utilization in Hainan Island, indicating that advanced technology has improved water resource utilization efficiency and significantly reduced water resource consumption. 展开更多
关键词 ecological footprint ecological carrying capacity Water consumption Moran'sⅠindex Cold/hot spot analysis LMDI model
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长江经济带生态文明建设水平变化特征与影响因素分析 被引量:1
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作者 帅红 吴珍 李鑫 《湖南师范大学自然科学学报》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第2期52-61,共10页
长江经济带生态文明建设水平的高低关系到长江流域绿色协调发展能力,深刻影响我国生态安全格局。从生态经济、生态环境、生态社会3个层面构建评价指标体系,使用改进TOPSIS方法模型测算长江经济带生态文明建设水平,利用地理加权回归模型(... 长江经济带生态文明建设水平的高低关系到长江流域绿色协调发展能力,深刻影响我国生态安全格局。从生态经济、生态环境、生态社会3个层面构建评价指标体系,使用改进TOPSIS方法模型测算长江经济带生态文明建设水平,利用地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析其影响因子。研究结果表明:(1)在2011—2020年,长江经济带生态文明建设水平整体上呈上升趋势,由东向西沿轴线逐步扩散。(2)各子系统建设水平异质性特征显著,生态经济建设水平东部高于西部,以长江下游地区和省会城市为核心向周围辐射发展;生态环境水平在各省会及其周边城市增长较快,而工业发展型城市有不同程度的降低。生态社会水平高值区集中分布在江浙沪地区,低值区分散分布于中上游各省会城市。(3)地形、常住人口城镇化水平、第三产业占比、恩格尔系数、科技财政支出占比均正向影响了研究区生态文明建设水平,每万人在校大学生数对生态文明建设水平呈弱负相关。 展开更多
关键词 长江经济带 生态文明建设水平 基于熵权改进TOPSIS和GWR模型
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基于PLUS模型的2030年滹沱河流域山区段生态承载力时空格局多情景预测
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作者 席梅竹 赵中秋 赵颖丽 《农业资源与环境学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期518-529,共12页
为探讨滹沱河流域山区段当前及未来不同发展情景下生态承载力的时空变化,应用植被净初级生产力改进的生态足迹模型测算分析了流域2015—2020年生态承载力的时空格局变化,并借助经过精度验证的PLUS模型对2030年区域自然发展、经济发展及... 为探讨滹沱河流域山区段当前及未来不同发展情景下生态承载力的时空变化,应用植被净初级生产力改进的生态足迹模型测算分析了流域2015—2020年生态承载力的时空格局变化,并借助经过精度验证的PLUS模型对2030年区域自然发展、经济发展及生态保护三种发展情景下的生态承载力时空格局进行预测。结果表明:2015—2030年滹沱河流域山区段单位面积生态承载力整体格局变化不大,但内部空间分异明显,整体呈东南及西北区域单位面积生态承载力高,而东北、西南部区域单位面积生态承载力低的特点。2015—2020年区域生态承载力总量由1.0780×10^(6)bhm^(2)增加到1.0796×10^(6)bhm^(2),呈上升趋势;2030年自然发展和经济发展情景下区域生态承载力总量分别为1.0783×10^(6)、1.0782×10^(6)bhm^(2),与2020年相比呈下降趋势,草地向耕地的转移、林地向建设用地的转移是生态承载力下降的主要原因;2030年生态保护情景下生态承载力总量为1.0802×10^(6)bhm^(2),与2020年相比呈上升趋势,耕地向林地、草地转移是区域生态承载力增加的主要原因。各类用地的生态承载力总量由高到低依次为草地>耕地>林地>建设用地>水域,生态保护情景有益于林地、草地生态承载力总量的增加,经济发展情景有益于耕地和建设用地生态承载力总量的增加,水域生态承载力总量在各种发展情景下变化较小。生态保护情景更有利于未来生态承载力的增加,符合区域未来发展方向。严格控制草地向耕地的转变以及林地向建设用地的转变,继续实施退耕还林、还草生态工程,加强区域废弃矿山生态复垦的力度,将会提高区域未来生态承载力,实现区域生态安全及经济、社会、生态的可持续发展。 展开更多
关键词 生态承载力 生态足迹模型 PLUS模型 时空格局 多情景预测 滹沱河流域山区段
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基于ARIMA模型的黄土高原河谷城市生态足迹动态模拟及测算——以甘肃省兰州市为例
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作者 虞文宝 《资源与产业》 2024年第1期133-140,共8页
为了从经济发展的角度探究生态足迹动态变化的成因,论文在测算黄土高原河谷城市——甘肃省兰州市2002—2014年人均生态足迹的发展轨迹的基础上,引入ARIMA模型,模拟预测了该市2015—2020年生态足迹变化趋势。研究结果显示:1)2002—2014年... 为了从经济发展的角度探究生态足迹动态变化的成因,论文在测算黄土高原河谷城市——甘肃省兰州市2002—2014年人均生态足迹的发展轨迹的基础上,引入ARIMA模型,模拟预测了该市2015—2020年生态足迹变化趋势。研究结果显示:1)2002—2014年,甘肃省兰州市人均生态足迹总体呈现上升态势,数值由2.70 hm^(2)增长至4.25 hm^(2),增幅达到1.57倍;2)从生态足迹增速看,2002—2014年人均生态足迹平均增速达到4.04%,同一时期兰州市地区生产总值平均增速为11.88%,较人均生态足迹增速高出7.84%,表明该地区经济发展的速度高于资源环境消耗的速度;3)2015—2020年甘肃省兰州市人均生态足迹仍然呈现上升态势,预测值分别达到4.48 hm^(2)、4.61 hm^(2)、4.75 hm^(2)、4.89 hm^(2)、5.02 hm^(2)和5.17 hm^(2),甘肃省兰州市生态赤字逐年增大,总生态足迹是城市土地利用总面积的19.59倍,说明经济发展与地区生态需求呈现较强正相关性,环境库兹涅茨曲线“拐点”并未出现,处于不可持续发展状态。基于以上分析结果提出了甘肃省兰州市降低生态足迹的具体路径:1)实施产业结构调整,降低生态赤字,提升经济发展质量和可持续发展能力;2)推动绿色发展,构建生态类型多样、布局合理、功能完善的自然生态系统和城乡一体的生态网络,提高生态环境容量。 展开更多
关键词 黄土高原 河谷城市 ARIMA模型 生态足迹 动态模拟
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黄河上游地区三维生态足迹自然资本可持续评价及驱动力 被引量:1
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作者 郭婧 魏珍 周华坤 《草地学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期284-296,共13页
本文基于改进的三维生态足迹模型,测算了黄河上游4个省区2012-2021年的人均三维生态足迹,并利用偏最小二乘法进行了驱动力分析。结果表明:黄河上游的人均生态足迹从2012年的2.089 9 hm^(2)·人^(-1)上升至2021年的2.536 5 hm^(2)... 本文基于改进的三维生态足迹模型,测算了黄河上游4个省区2012-2021年的人均三维生态足迹,并利用偏最小二乘法进行了驱动力分析。结果表明:黄河上游的人均生态足迹从2012年的2.089 9 hm^(2)·人^(-1)上升至2021年的2.536 5 hm^(2)·人^(-1),10年间仍处于生态可持续状态;研究期间黄河上游各省区的人均生态足迹深度均超过1 hm^(2)·人^(-1),人均生态足迹广度在总体上呈先升后降的趋势;人均三维生态足迹整体处于波动上升趋势,其中内蒙古的人均三维生态足迹值偏高,2021年达到3.87 hm^(2)·人^(-1);5个时期的可持续发展水平变化特征呈现“西南高东北低”的分布格局,可持续发展水平较高的省份为青海省和甘肃省;驱动力分析模型表明,黄河上游地区自然资本驱动力整体受人口、社会消费、生态建设、科技和环境污染多重因素综合影响。未来需因地制宜制定和实施可持续发展策略,推动黄河上游地区生态保护与高质量发展。 展开更多
关键词 改进三维生态足迹 黄河上游地区 驱动力 自然资本 可持续发展评价
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塔里木河流域水资源生态承载力动态评价与预测 被引量:1
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作者 朱雪颖 黄生志 +3 位作者 黄强 郑旭东 张绍庆 高月娇 《人民珠江》 2024年第3期79-88,共10页
采用水资源生态足迹模型,评估了塔里木河流域(简称为塔河流域)2005—2020年人均水资源生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈亏以及生态承载状况的演变过程,并运用灰色预测模型对2021—2030年的生态盈余/赤字进行预测。结果表明:2005—2020年塔... 采用水资源生态足迹模型,评估了塔里木河流域(简称为塔河流域)2005—2020年人均水资源生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈亏以及生态承载状况的演变过程,并运用灰色预测模型对2021—2030年的生态盈余/赤字进行预测。结果表明:2005—2020年塔河流域水资源整体上处于生态赤字状态;多数区域水资源生态压力指数大于1.0,生态状况超载严重,万元GDP水资源生态足迹持续下降,而水资源负载指数均呈上升趋势;未来塔河流域水资源赤字状态呈现逐年下降趋势。研究成果能够有效服务于塔河流域生态环境保护和水资源规划与管理。 展开更多
关键词 生态足迹 生态承载力 生态赤字 灰色预测模型 塔里木河流域
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遥感生态指数(RSEI)模型及应用综述
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作者 陈宜欣 宁晓刚 +2 位作者 张翰超 兰小强 常中兵 《自然资源遥感》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期28-40,共13页
在“双碳”背景下,开展遥感生态评价与监测分析对于及时掌握生态状况、制定科学合理的生态保护政策具有重要作用。早期遥感生态评价指标单一、过程复杂。遥感生态指数(remote sensing ecological index,RSEI)实现了生态评价效率的提高,... 在“双碳”背景下,开展遥感生态评价与监测分析对于及时掌握生态状况、制定科学合理的生态保护政策具有重要作用。早期遥感生态评价指标单一、过程复杂。遥感生态指数(remote sensing ecological index,RSEI)实现了生态评价效率的提高,得到广泛应用。为深入理解RSEI,文章阐述了该指数的产生背景,介绍了RSEI的计算方法及研究现状,归纳了指数存在的问题及区域适应性调整措施,并对RSEI主要应用方向,即区域生态评价和区域生态变化监测进一步分析,最后指出,未来RSEI虽有广阔发展空间,却仍需围绕影像时空尺度、存储和批处理能力、模型自适应、智能化等方面进行研究。 展开更多
关键词 RSEI 模型改进 应用分析 区域生态评价 区域生态变化监测
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“共生”逻辑下数字赋能企业价值创造的因素研究
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作者 刘启雷 侯光文 杨佩卿 《统计与信息论坛》 北大核心 2024年第5期104-114,共11页
“共生”是数字经济时代企业价值创造的新理念、新逻辑。结合组织生态理论,从“共生”逻辑视角理论分析数字赋能企业价值创造的过程机制,识别关键因素并应用基于信息量的改进解释结构模型构建各因素间层次结构,通过“驱动力—依赖力”... “共生”是数字经济时代企业价值创造的新理念、新逻辑。结合组织生态理论,从“共生”逻辑视角理论分析数字赋能企业价值创造的过程机制,识别关键因素并应用基于信息量的改进解释结构模型构建各因素间层次结构,通过“驱动力—依赖力”分析揭示数字赋能企业价值创造各因素层次作用关系。研究发现:数字赋能企业价值创造历经数字要素搭载数字技术创造新价值、数字技术构建生态型组织链接价值和共生型组织支撑多边主体价值共生的逻辑过程;其影响因素可分为数据禀赋、数据共享、数据联动和资源编排等12个因素,并分解为五个层次;数据禀赋是数字赋能企业价值创造的根源性因素,生态环境、动态交互、价值感知、价值匹配和协同共生是数字赋能企业价值创造的直接决定因素;企业基于数据禀赋开展资源编排并驱动自身与用户的价值重构,进而借助网络关系和价值匹配、价值链接等实现生态型组织价值的共生。研究结论可为企业提高数据资源编排和价值创造能力,增强数字赋能效应提供理论借鉴。 展开更多
关键词 数字赋能 价值创造 共生 组织生态理论 改进的ISM模型
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