By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents&...By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap.By conducting empirical analysis,we establish ARIMA prediction model,grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison.The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect.By using quadratic-polynomial prediction model,this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013,and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20,15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively.Finally,on the basis of analysis,corresponding countermeasures are put forward,in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation:first,strengthen government's function of public service,coordinate resources,and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members,so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality;second,breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry;last but not the least,support,encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund,adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective,and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.展开更多
With the economic development, the income disparity between towns＇ residents and rural residents in China shows an enlarging trend. This phenomenon becomes a hot issue of the whole society. The income disparity betwe...With the economic development, the income disparity between towns＇ residents and rural residents in China shows an enlarging trend. This phenomenon becomes a hot issue of the whole society. The income disparity between towns＇ residents and rural residents in Hebei province also shows an enlarging trend. The authors study this problem with the positive analysis method from the situation, the developing trend in the future, the reasons of the income disparity between towns＇ residents and rural residents in Hebei, and put forward proposals about how to reduce the income disparity.展开更多
From the situations about the incomes and life quality of the urban and rural residents,the thesis briefly introduces the status quo of the urban-rural income gap and explores the impact of the income gap on social ec...From the situations about the incomes and life quality of the urban and rural residents,the thesis briefly introduces the status quo of the urban-rural income gap and explores the impact of the income gap on social economy:firstly,it hampers economic development;secondly,it is detrimental to the social development.Then the thesis analyzes the role of a sound social security in narrowing urban-rural income gap:at first,it broadens the institutional environment of improving the agricultural efficiency;secondly,it eliminates the uncertainties influencing the farmers' income;thirdly,it improves the farmers' capacity to increase income;at last,it enhances the farmers' consciousness of wealth.Next the thesis inquires into the problems existing in the system of rural social security:the first problem is more obviously fragmented system;the second is inadequate security projects and narrower coverage;the third is an obvious lack of equality in urban and rural security;the fourth is even less sound management system;the last is the lagging of legislation.Afterwards the thesis proposes the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the system of rural social security and narrow urban-rural income gap:firstly,to integrate the social security system in rural areas;secondly,to perfect security projects and enhance the security system;thirdly,to integrate the administrative management of social security;at last,to enforce the legal system.展开更多
Given China＇s dual urban-rural structure, this paper employs the Theil index for measuring and depicting China＇s urban-rural income disparity and its characteristics. Furthermore, this paper specifies a nonlinear th...Given China＇s dual urban-rural structure, this paper employs the Theil index for measuring and depicting China＇s urban-rural income disparity and its characteristics. Furthermore, this paper specifies a nonlinear threshold cointegration model to reveals a nonlinear relationship between the urban-rural income gap and real economic growth over a long period since reform and opening up in China. Our results show that the regime switch of the long-term nonlinear threshold relationship takes place at the 0.100 （threshold value） of the Theil index. From 1978 to 1991, the long-term effect of the urban- rural income disparity on China＇s economic growth was positive; between 1992 and 1999, there was a smooth transition to a negative effect; and from 1999 on, the negative effect has been increasing year by year. Income disparity now has the effect of retarding China＇s real economic growth.展开更多
文摘By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap.By conducting empirical analysis,we establish ARIMA prediction model,grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison.The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect.By using quadratic-polynomial prediction model,this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013,and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20,15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively.Finally,on the basis of analysis,corresponding countermeasures are put forward,in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation:first,strengthen government's function of public service,coordinate resources,and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members,so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality;second,breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry;last but not the least,support,encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund,adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective,and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.
文摘With the economic development, the income disparity between towns＇ residents and rural residents in China shows an enlarging trend. This phenomenon becomes a hot issue of the whole society. The income disparity between towns＇ residents and rural residents in Hebei province also shows an enlarging trend. The authors study this problem with the positive analysis method from the situation, the developing trend in the future, the reasons of the income disparity between towns＇ residents and rural residents in Hebei, and put forward proposals about how to reduce the income disparity.
基金Supported by Jiangxi Social Sciences Project(08SH035)Key Project of National Social Sciences Fund(08AZD005)
文摘From the situations about the incomes and life quality of the urban and rural residents,the thesis briefly introduces the status quo of the urban-rural income gap and explores the impact of the income gap on social economy:firstly,it hampers economic development;secondly,it is detrimental to the social development.Then the thesis analyzes the role of a sound social security in narrowing urban-rural income gap:at first,it broadens the institutional environment of improving the agricultural efficiency;secondly,it eliminates the uncertainties influencing the farmers' income;thirdly,it improves the farmers' capacity to increase income;at last,it enhances the farmers' consciousness of wealth.Next the thesis inquires into the problems existing in the system of rural social security:the first problem is more obviously fragmented system;the second is inadequate security projects and narrower coverage;the third is an obvious lack of equality in urban and rural security;the fourth is even less sound management system;the last is the lagging of legislation.Afterwards the thesis proposes the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the system of rural social security and narrow urban-rural income gap:firstly,to integrate the social security system in rural areas;secondly,to perfect security projects and enhance the security system;thirdly,to integrate the administrative management of social security;at last,to enforce the legal system.
基金This paper is financially supported by the National Science Foundation of China, Grant 70571026.
文摘Given China＇s dual urban-rural structure, this paper employs the Theil index for measuring and depicting China＇s urban-rural income disparity and its characteristics. Furthermore, this paper specifies a nonlinear threshold cointegration model to reveals a nonlinear relationship between the urban-rural income gap and real economic growth over a long period since reform and opening up in China. Our results show that the regime switch of the long-term nonlinear threshold relationship takes place at the 0.100 （threshold value） of the Theil index. From 1978 to 1991, the long-term effect of the urban- rural income disparity on China＇s economic growth was positive; between 1992 and 1999, there was a smooth transition to a negative effect; and from 1999 on, the negative effect has been increasing year by year. Income disparity now has the effect of retarding China＇s real economic growth.
