Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on binary index method and reduction index method

Based on the regional water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)evaluation principles and evaluation index system in the National Technical Outline of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning(hereafter referred to as the Technical Outline),this paper elaborates on the collection and sorting of the basic data of water resources conditions,water resources development and utilization status,social and economic development in basins,analysis and examination of integrity,consistency,normativeness,and rationality of the basic data,and the necessity of WRCC evaluation.This paper also describes the technique of evaluating the WRCC in prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the District of the Taihu Lake Basin,which is composed of the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin.The evaluation process combines the binary index evaluation method and reduction index evaluation method.The former,recommended by the Technical Outline,uses the total water use and the amount of exploited groundwater as evaluation indices,showing stronger operability,while the latter is developed by simplifying and optimizing the comprehensive index system with greater systematicness and completeness.The mutual validation and adjustment of the results of the above-mentioned two evaluation methods indicate that the WRCC of the District of the Taihu Lake Basin is overloaded in general because some prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin are in a severely overloaded state.In order to explain this conclusion,this paper analyzes the causes of WRCC overloading from the aspects of basin water environment,water resources development and utilization,water resources regulation and control ability,water resources utilization efficiency,and water resources management.

Evaluation of Natural Ecological Environment in Guangzhou City Based on Remote Sensing Technology and Comprehensive Index Method

Based on the ETM remote sensing images of Guangzhou City in 2014, the spatial distribution results o f three environmental factors including vegetation coverage(NDVI), soil index(vegetation index of bare soil) and sl ope were obtained. By using comprehensive index method, the normalized environmental factors were weighted and superimposed, and the fi nal evaluation results of ecological environment in Guangzhou City were obtained. The results showed that overall situation of natural ecological environment in Guangzhou was not optimistic, that is, the area of land with bad, moderate, good and superior environment accounted for 59.70%, 35.79%, 4.50% and around 0.01% of total area of land in Guangzhou City respectively. Ecological environment was generally poor in the central urban districts in the south of Guangzhou City, while it was relatively better in the north and northeast. Attaching importance to the constr uction of greenbelts and greenways is an effective way to improve regional environmental quality and natural ecological e nvironment level.

A Double-Index Method to Classify Kuroshio Intrusion Paths in the Luzon Strait

A double index （DI）, which is made up of two sub-indices, is proposed to describe the spatial patterns of the Kuroshio intrusion and mesoscale eddies west to the Luzon Strait, based on satellite altimeter data. The area-integrated negative and positive geostrophic vorticities are defined as the Kuroshio warm eddy index （KWI） and the Kuroshio cold eddy index （KCI）, respectively. Three typical spatial patterns are identified by the DI： the Kuroshio warm eddy path （KWEP）, the Kuroshio cold eddy path （KCEP）, and the leaking path. The primary features of the DI and three patterns are further investigated and compared with previous indices. The effects of the integrated area and the algorithm of the integration are investigated in detail. In general, the DI can overcome the problem of previously used indices in which the positive and negative geostrophic vorticities cancel each other out. Thus, the proportions of missing and misjudged events are greatly reduced using the DI. The DI, as compared with previously used indices, can better distinguish the paths of the Kuroshio intrusion and can be used for further research.

Method of Estimating Human Error Probabilities in Construction for Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Failure Likelihood Index Method

Human error(HE) is the most important factor influencing on structural safety because its effect often exceeds the random deviation.Large numbers of facts have shown that structural failures may be caused by the gross error due to HE.So it is essential to analyze HE in construction.The crucial work of human error analysis(HEA) is the estimation of human error probability(HEP) in construction.The method for estimating HEP,analytic hierarchy process and failure likelihood index method(AHP-FLIM),is introduced in this paper.The method also uses the process of expert judgment within the failure likelihood index method(FLIM).A numerical example shows the effectiveness of the methods proposed.

Parameter analysis of a photonic crystal fiber with raised-core index profile based on effective index method

Photonic crystal fibers （PCFs） with a stepped raised-core profile and one layer equally spaced holes in the cladding are analyzed. Using effective index method and considering a raised step refractive index difference between the index of the core and the effective index of the cladding, we improve the characteristic parameters such as numerical aperture and V-parameter, and reduce its bending loss to about one tenth of a conventional PCF. Implementing such a structure in PCFs may be one step forward to achieve low loss PCFs for communication applications.

Determination of Fructose and Glucose Contents in Honey by Liquid Chromatography-refractive Index Detection Method and Direct Titration Method

In this study, fructose and glucose contents in honey were determined by liquid chromatography-refractive index detection method and alkaline copper tartrate solution-direct titration method. According to the results, there were great differences between determination results of reducing sugar contents by liquid chromatography-refractive index detection method and alkaline copper tartrate solution-direct titration method. Specifically, average determination results of reducing sugar contents by liquid chromatography-refractive index detection method were reduced by about 9.5% compared with alkaline copper tartrate solution-direct titra- tion method. Subsequently, determination results of reducing sugar contents by two methods were compared and analyzed. Liquid chromatography-refractive index detection method was used to determine fructose and glucose monomers in honey, but alkaline copper tartrate solution-direct titration method was used to determine reducing sugar composition in honey, which might lead to significantly different results. Due to small sample size and limited conditions, the determination results were not necessarily representative. Bee product acquisition and processing enterprises and relevant departments should pay much attention on these issues and fully consider the current situation of grass-roots units to develop scientific, rigorous, simple, universal, convenient, low-cost and practicable standards, thus ensuring the safety and reliability of food quality.

Construction of the First Certification Evaluation Index System for Diabetes Specialist Nurses by Delphi Method

Objective: To establish an evaluation index system for the first-time certification of diabetes specialist nurses in line with the clinical nursing practice in China, and to provide a reference basis for government administrations and hospitals to formulate unified standards. Methods: After the research team has determined the theme, it will consult the development of A) specialist nursing through the library, Internet and electronic literature database;B) the history of the development of specialist nurses in diabetes and other fields;C) the selection criteria of specialist nurses;D) the training of specialist nurses system, assessment method;E) Specialist nurse certification body, evaluation standards and certification standards and other related documents, literature, books and report materials. The author established the preliminary index system through literature review, specialist interview and group discussion and used Delphi method to organize three rounds of 30 experts’ consultations. Results: A first certification evaluation index system including 8 fundamental indicators, 5 first-level indicators, 19 second-level indicators and 99 third-level indicators was constructed for diabetes nurses. Conclusion: The results of three rounds of expert consultation and demonstration are reliable, and the constructed index system is suitable for comprehensive evaluation of diabetes specialist nurses, which provides a basis for the effective management of nursing resources.

Comparison of delay compensation methods for real-time hybrid simulation using frequency-domain evaluation index

The delay compensation method plays an essential role in maintaining the stability and achieving accurate real-time hybrid simulation results. The effectiveness of various compensation methods in different test scenarios, however, needs to be quantitatively evaluated. In this study, four compensation methods （i.e., the polynomial extrapolation, the linear acceleration extrapolation, the inverse compensation and the adaptive inverse compensation） are selected and compared experimentally using a frequency evaluation index （FEI） method. The effectiveness of the FEI method is first verified through comparison with the discrete transfer fimction approach for compensation methods assuming constant delay. Incomparable advantage is further demonstrated for the FEI method when applied to adaptive compensation methods, where the discrete transfer function approach is difficult to implement. Both numerical simulation and laboratory tests with predefined displacements are conducted using sinusoidal signals and random signals as inputs. Findings from numerical simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the FEI method is an efficient and effective approach to compare the performance of different compensation methods, especially for those requiring adaptation of compensation parameters.

A Method for Determining the Reliability Index of a Materiel Subsystem

This paper presents a method for determining the reliability index of a subsystem in the materiel demonstration phase-AHP Failure Rate Method. It fully considers the various factors which influence a subsystem reliability index and solves a difficult problem that puzzles the demonstration personnel.

Kind of Fuzzy Method Determining Index Weight on Multi-Objctive Decision Making

Based on fuzzy characteristic of dicision-making thought, matrix of priority relation has been introduced and blurrized. A kind of fuzzy method, which is to determine the index weight on multi-objective decision making, has been put forward by means of the sequence root method for analysis of hierarchical process (AHP). Using this method an example which is to define the index weigbt on multi-objective decision making in thc scheme optimization of mine design has been given.

基于FAST和Sobol指数法的雷达系统效能敏感性分析

为了以较小的代价快速提升对空探测雷达系统的综合效能,首先搭建了对空探测雷达系统综合效能的评估指标体系,在此基础上完成了综合效能评估模型的建立。选择两种基于方差原理的全局敏感性分析方法,即傅里叶幅度敏感性测试(Fourier amplitudes sensitivity test,FAST)和Sobol指数法,分别从频域和时域对建立的评估模型进行敏感性分析。在基于FAST进行敏感性分析时,提出了21维输入指标所对应的特征频率集的选取方法;在基于Sobol指数法进行敏感性分析时,考虑了二阶及高阶敏感性指数的影响。对比FAST和Sobol指数法的分析结果,两种方法获得的敏感性分析结果具有较好的一致性。其中,功率和频率为对空探测雷达系统的主要影响指标,为雷达系统的研发和升级提供了可靠性依据。

基于统计的语音传输指数预测方法实验对比

良好的言语可懂度是语言声厅堂声环境设计的重要目标,语音传输指数(STI)是言语可懂度的客观评价参量。在设计阶段就能对STI做出准确预测,对语言声厅堂的声环境控制具有重要意义。基于统计的STI预测方法是IEC 60268-16标准推荐的主要预测方法,但对于使用该方法时的影响因素以及预测精度,当前仍缺少系统性的实验对比研究。该文使用4个房间中13个测点共52种听音条件下的STI实测结果,分析了基于统计的STI预测方法的精度以及影响因素,结果表明:考虑和不考虑直达声的两种预测方法,都存在着系统偏差,预测结果普遍小于实测值;在距离声源较近测点的预测都产生了较大误差,在距离声源较远测点的预测误差相对较小;基于单指数衰变声场不考虑直达声的预测方法操作简单,但误差较大,52种听音条件的平均误差达到了-0.032,最大误差达到了-0.131;考虑直达声的预测方法误差相对较小,52种听音条件的STI平均误差为-0.018,最大误差为-0.080;预测精度主要受所使用的信噪比、扬声器的指向性、房间的声场条件等因素影响,并对这些因素的影响进行了对比分析。结果可为STI预测方法的使用者提供参考。

DIP付费改革实施前后住院费用分析及医疗服务绩效综合评价

目的对比研究医院实施DIP付费改革措施前后住院费用等指标变化,分析和评价医疗服务绩效。方法纳入某院未实施DIP付费改革措施的2023年1季度数据和实施DIP付费改革后的2024年1季度数据,对比住院费用和医疗服务绩效变化。结果DIP付费改革后,患者住院总费用和自付费用均有明显降低,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),医务性费用占比明显提高,CMI、DRG总量、时间消耗指数、费用消耗指数、低风险死亡率等医疗服务绩效指标均优于改革前。结论DIP付费改革后,医院住院费用控制良好,患者自付费用降低,住院费用结构合理,同时医疗服务绩效水平有明显提高。

物有所值视角下工程招投标评定分离定标办法

直接抽签定标法、票决定标法及票决低价定标法等定标办法均没有综合考虑定标候选人报价和综合得分,择优竞价性相对较差.基于物有所值(VFM)理论创新性地提出了票决指数法。对我国评定分离办法试点情况进行梳理,基于VFM理论构建票决指数法的初步模型和最合适区域模型,对比分析票决指数法与其他票决办法。结果表明:票决指数法是一种科学有效的评定分离定标办法,可为招标人更科学择优竞价定标提供一定的理论指导。

干旱指数法综合评价河南烤烟新品种抗旱性

以中烟100、云烟87和NC89为对照品种,采用PEG(聚乙二醇)模拟干旱试验,结合盆栽控水试验研究干旱胁迫对河南省烤烟新品种的影响,采用干旱指数法综合评价新品种的抗旱性。结果表明,河洛1号抗旱性最强;其次是豫浓香201,在中度干旱胁迫条件下抗旱性较强,重度干旱则影响烟叶正常生长;渠首1号抗旱性与对照品种NC89、中烟100和云烟87基本相当。

北方寒冷地区交通碳排放驱动因素分析

北方地区气候寒冷,交通工具燃油效率低、车内加热需求增加及路面积雪结冰等复杂道路条件导致交通碳排放增加。因此,有必要针对寒冷地区的交通碳排放驱动因素进行分析,识别关键因素,并有针对性地降低碳排放。以典型北方寒冷地区黑龙江省为例,采用Tapio脱钩测度模型及GDIM因素分解法对2006—2021年黑龙江省交通行业碳排放驱动因素展开分析,分解得到8个驱动因素并发现其脱钩状态呈现“强脱钩-扩张负脱钩-强脱钩”,其中交通产值碳强度和单位交通行业产值的能耗促进脱钩,交通行业总产值和总周转量阻碍脱钩;另外交通行业总产值、能源消耗量对碳排放有较强的促进作用,交通产值碳强度和单位交通行业产值的能耗对碳排放有较强的抑制作用。

口岸经济高质量发展水平评价指标体系构建与测度——基于云南的实证研究

加快口岸由“通道经济”转型为“产业经济”,是“一带一路”建设高质量发展的重要内容。基于高质量发展目标要求,对口岸经济高质量发展的内涵、特征进行学理性探讨,依托层次分析思想构建测度口岸经济高质量发展水平的评价指标体系。以边境口岸数量多、类型丰富的云南省为研究对象,选取2012—2021年数据,运用CRITIC权重法,对云南口岸经济高质量发展水平进行测度并分析其趋势特征。研究发现:样本期内云南口岸经济高质量发展水平总体呈现上升趋势,口岸经济协调发展和开放发展提升显著,创新发展有待加强,共享作用显现,绿色发展不平稳,岸城协调性不足。推动云南口岸经济高质量发展要转变发展理念,扩大高水平对外开放,建立岸岸、岸城协调发展机制,完善口岸基础设施,加强口岸开放发展能力,以此推进云南口岸现代化建设进程。

基于德尔菲法构建集采中选药品管理敏感指标

目的:构建集采中选药品管理敏感指标。方法:通过循证初步建立集采中选药品管理敏感指标,再通过德尔菲专家函询法对30名药学人员进行2轮函询,并统计整理函询结果。结果:构建的集采中选药品管理敏感指标包括一级指标3项,二级指标11项和三级指标22项。两轮专家函询有效回收率分别为91%和100%。第二轮权威系数为0.82,总体协调系数0.434,检验具有统计学意义(P<0.01)。结论:本研究构建的集采中选药品管理敏感指标满足专家积极程度、权威程度和一致性标准等各项标准。

显微仪器产品美度指标构建及评价方法研究

显微仪器外观美感能体现其产品的高端品质,同时提升操作者使用体验的愉悦性。建立显微仪器产品美度指标及评价方法能够量化显微仪器的外观美感,便于客观的形式美与人主观的感受美达成一致,从而有效指导显微仪器产品的美学设计。首先针对显微仪器产品的特点,基于形式美法则,依据Ngo和Birkhoff美度计算模型构建了显微仪器产品美度评价的7个量化指标,即平衡度、对称度、比例度、节奏度、整体度、秩序度、色彩美度;然后分析了7个美度指标间的相关性,建立了计算产品美度模糊评价矩阵R;最后以四款激光扫描共聚焦生物显微镜为样本,采用美度评价指标与模糊综合评价方法对其外观美感进行了主客观综合评价,结果显示哈工大设计的样本4的模糊综合评价向量B 4=[0,0.3534,1.0425,0.8883,1.2562],表明其美度等级较高,具有更好的整体感与秩序性。

创新链视角下地方公益农业类科研机构创新效率测度研究

文章基于创新链理论,将公益农业类科研机构划分为科技研发阶段和成果转化阶段,采用DEA-Malquist指数法测算2011—2020年21家福建省属公益农业类科研机构不同阶段科技创新效率。结果表明:10年间,科技研发阶段和成果转化阶段的创新效率均表现为退步状态,科技研发阶段创新效率下降5.10%,成果转化阶段下降3.20%,可见两阶段均有较大提升空间;21家机构不同阶段创新效率差距明显,47.62%的机构科技研发效率处于退步状态,创新指数最大差距达0.756,38.10%的机构成果转化效率处于退步状态,创新指数最大差距达0.919;机构创新发展模式差距大,23.81%为集约型,9.52%为粗放型,28.57%为研发高效-转化低效型,38.10%为研发低效-转化高效型。在此基础上,结合加快推进科技政策创新、科技体制改革等外部因素,引导机构形成学科布局、技术积累与产业经济发展格局相适应科研组织模式等内部因素,分类提出有针对性的对策建议。