The stability safety factor calibration based on the reliability index

When the bridge structure stability safety factor of the first type is 4, the research that whether the structure reliability index will reach target reliability index under the more-likely-to-happen collapse situation of the second type is necessary. The stability calculations of the first and the second type are made respectively for single layer and single span rigid frame bridge. Based on the critical load obtained from the stability calculation of the first type, the stability safety factor of the first type is taken as 4, and the first order reliability method is used to program and calculate the reliability index. Then, the load effect under the stability reliability index cal- culation of the first type and the critical load of the second type are employed to calculate the reliability index of the second type. The evaluation of structure stability safety factor is discussed according to reliability index. Based on the discussion above, parameter analysis of the stable critical loads of two types is made, and the in- fluence of critical load change on reliability index is researched. The result shows that stability analysis should identify collapse state; when the stability safety factor of the first type is 4, but the structure has the collapse of the second type, the reliability index cannot be ensured to reach the target reliability index under certain condi- tions.

An Assessment of Heavy-Metal Contamination in Soils within Auto-Mechanic Workshops Using Enrichment and Contamination Factors with Geoaccumulation Indexes

Soil characterization and heavy metals in different layers (0 - 15 cm;15 - 30 cm and 30 - 45 cm depth) of automobile mechanic waste dumps were studied. The soils showed remarkably high levels of all the metals above background concentrations with most (Ni, Cu, Fe, Cr and Cd) decreasing with soil depth. The distribution pattern were in the following order Fe > Cu > Zn > Pb > Cr > Ni > Cd. Across all the sampling locations and profiles, Fe and Cd showed the highest (476.4 μg·g-1) and least (37.5 μg·g-1) mean concentrations respectively. Pollution load index (PLI) and index of geoaccumulation (Igeo) revealed overall high and moderate contamination respectively but the enrichment factors (EFs) for Pb Ni and Cd are severe. The inter-element relationship revealed the identical source of elements in the soils of the studied area. The accuracy of the results has been cheeked using the standard reference material;SRM (PACS-2). The mechanic waste dumps represent potential sources of heavy metal pollution to environment. The elevated levels of heavy metals in these soil profiles constitute a serious threat to both surface and groundwater.

Risk factors and ankle brachial indexes in cerebral infarction combined with peripheral arterial disease

BACKGROUND: Ankle brachial index (ABI) is widely involved in researches and clinical application of peripheral vascular injury of patients with diabetes mellitus (DM); however, the application in cerebral infarction (CI) is rare. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the possible risk factor of cerebral infarction plus peripheral arterial disease (PAD), compare metabolic characteristics of patients who having CI plus PAD or only having CI, and understand the significance of ABI on screening and diagnosing CI plus PAD of lower limb. DESIGN: Contrast observation based on CI patients. SETTING: Department of Neurology, Nanxishan Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 124 CI patients were selected from Department of Neurology, Nanxishan Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from July 2005 to April 2006, including 72 males and 52 females aged from 45 to 88 years. All patients met the diagnostic criteria of cerebrovascular disease established by National Academic Conference of Cerebrovascular Diseases in 1995 and determined as cerebral infarction with MRI or CT examination. All patients provided informed consent. There were 46 cases (37.2%) with CI plus PAD and 78 cases (62.8%) only with CI. METHODS: Blood pressure of bilateral ankles and upper extremities was measured at plain clinostatism with DINAMAP blood pressure monitor (GE Company). The ratio between average systolic pressure of lateral ankle and average systolic pressure of both upper extremities was regarded as ABI. The normal ABI was equal to or more than 0.9. If ABI < 0.9 occurred at one side, patients were diagnosed as PAD. On the second morning after hospitalization, blood was collected to measure fasting blood glucose (FBG), 2-hour postprandial blood glucose (PBG2h), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Among them, blood glucose, lipid and other biochemical markers were measured with enzyme chemistry assay and HbA1c was measured with HbA1c meter based on high liquid phase. Measurement data and enumeration data were compared with t test and Chi-square test, and multiple factors were dealt with Logistic regression analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Results of correlation between ABI and metabolic markers with multivariate linear regression analysis; risk factors of CI plus PAD with Logistic regression analysis; comparisons of metabolic markers between PAD and non-PAD patients. RESULTS: All 124 patients with acute CI were involved in the final analysis. ① Comparisons of metabolic markers: Levels of serum LDL-C and uric acid (UA) were higher of PAD patients than those of non-PAD patients (t =2.051 9, 3.339 1, P < 0.05); however, there were no significant differences among other metabolic markers (P > 0.05). ② Results of multivariate linear regression analysis: PBG2h, LDL-C and UA were obvious correlation with ABI of posterior tibial artery of lower limb and dorsal pedis artery (partial regression coefficient = -0.231 to -1.010, P < 0.05). ③ Risk factors of CI plus PAD with Logistic regression analysis: Age, smoking history, sum of CI focus (≥3) and LDL-C were independent risk factor of CI plus PAD (OR =1.524-5.422, P < 0.05-0.01). CONCLUSION: ① Levels of serum LDL-C and UA of patients with CI plus PAD are high. ② ABI of lower limbs is correlation with PBG2h, LDL-C and UA. In addition, measuring ABI is beneficial for early diagnosing PAD of lower limbs of patients who have poorly controlled blood glucose, abnormal lipid and poor renal function. ③ Age, LDL-C and sum of CI focus (≥3) are independent risk factors of CI plus PAD. It is of significance for screening non-PAD patients to evaluate risk degrees and prognosis and select therapeutic methods based on ABI measurement.

Estimation of Global Solar Radiation Using Clearness Index and Cloud Transmittance Factor at Trans-Himalayan Region in Nepal

This paper presents the global solar radiation (GSR) and cloud transmittance factor (cf) measured at the horizontal surface over a period of one year from 2009 to 2010 using CMP6 Pyranometer and NILUUV Irradiance Meter at Lukla (Latitude 26.69oN,Longitude 86.73?E and Altitude 2850 m) in the foothills of the Mt Everest (8850 m high). Monthly and seasonal variations of global solar radiation as well as correlation between clearness index and cloud transmittance factor at Lukla are presented. The annual average daily global solar radiation is about 3.83 kWh/sq·m/day which is sufficient to promote solar active and passive energy technology at high mountain terrain where there is no other viable alternative sources of energy. The maximum and minimum global solar radiation of 5.33 and 2.08 kWh/sq·m/day is recorded in April and September 2010 respectively. The seasonal variation of solar energy is about 2.87 kWh/sq·m/day and 4.83 kWh/sq·m/day in summer and spring respectively which is not in line with the general trend. The coefficient of determination (R2) between cloud transmittance factor (cf) and clearness factor (K) is found to be 0.97. This novel result can be utilized to estimate the global solar radiation at the horizontal surface where K and cf are available.

BD-77雾化吸入给药对肺炎支原体感染小鼠的治疗作用

目的评价BD-77雾化吸入给药对肺炎支原体肺炎小鼠模型的治疗作用。方法Balb/c小鼠按照体质量随机分为正常对照组、模型对照组、阿奇霉素对照组(42 mg·kg^(-1)·d^(-1))、BD-77高剂量组(75 mg·mL^(-1),雾化15 min)、BD-77低剂量组(37.5 mg·mL^(-1),雾化15 min)。以肺炎支原体滴鼻感染建立小鼠支原体肺炎模型,雾化给药4 d后,通过小鼠体重及肺重计算肺指数和肺指数抑制率,酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)检测肺组织中白介素-6(IL-6)、白介素-1β(IL-1β)、肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)含量及血清中C反应蛋白(CRP)水平,苏木精-伊红(HE)染色评估小鼠肺组织病理学变化,全面评价BD-77对小鼠支原体肺炎的治疗作用。结果BD-772个剂量组雾化吸入给药15 min均可显著降低小鼠肺指数,减轻肺部炎症病变,降低肺组织中IL-6、IL-1β、TNF-α含量及血清CRP水平。结论BD-77雾化吸入可治疗支原体感染小鼠肺炎,本研究为BD-77开发作为防治肺炎支原体肺炎的药物提供了实验室数据支持。

基于广义超椭球模型的结构非概率可靠性指标

非概率凸集合模型仅需获知结构不确定性的范围或界限来度量结构可靠性,因而适用于小样本不确定性结构工程问题.针对广义超椭球模型,对其非概率可靠性度量问题进行了研究.首先,提出了基于广义超椭球模型的简单非概率可靠性指标,定义为结构功能函数的均值与离差之比,并讨论了该可靠性指标的不一致性问题.其次,为克服上述不一致性问题,提出了一种比例因子非概率可靠性指标,定义为不确定域向外扩大或向内收缩时,失效面与不确定域接触的最小比例因子.最后,通过3个工程算例分析验证了所提非概率可靠性指标的有效性和可行性.

恩施州乡村旅游地农户返贫风险评估及其影响因素研究

有效预防返贫风险是后脱贫时代脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴战略有效衔接的关键.该研究将风险的概率纳入返贫风险评估体系,从发生概率和破坏程度两方面综合评估其返贫风险,系统反映返贫风险的可能性和破坏性,进而探究其影响因素.研究发现:1)农户各维度的返贫风险水平从高到低依次为个体风险、家庭风险、社会风险和自然风险,农户受家庭风险和个体风险影响较大,存在明显的内生性、个体化特征.2)依据风险的发生概率和破坏程度,返贫风险可分为“高概率-高破坏”型、“高概率-低破坏”型和“低概率-低破坏”型3种类型,其中,“高概率-高破坏”型风险包括非农就业能力和教育负担,返贫风险指数最高,对农户返贫的威胁最大.3)抚养人数和户主的文化程度等家庭特征是影响返贫风险的主要因素,乡村旅游扶贫开发模式不同导致农户的返贫风险存在显著差异.在返贫防治实践中,应因户施策,重点防治内生性返贫,同时要根据返贫风险发生概率及破坏程度的差异,制定合理的返贫风险预警机制及防治措施.

Assessing Total Factor Productivity for Soybean Production in China Based on DEA-Malmquist Index: 2005-2017

The low and slowly increasing soybean yield restricts the development of soybean production. Accurate measures of total factor productivity (TFP) for soybean production can be helpful in identifying conditions, institutions or policies that promote soybean production development in China. In this paper, TFP growth for soybean production was estimated for a panel data of 10 major soybean producing provinces from 2005 to 2017. Results reveal that TFP grew at an average rate of 1.3% over the whole period, with technical progress contributing 2.3% and efficiency change providing the other -1.0%. The change of TFP for soybean production over that time, whether increase or decline, was mainly derived by technical change except in three years (2005-2007). Positive TFP growth in the provinces of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia, and negative TFP growth in Hebei and Anhui were mainly driven by efficiency change, specifically scale efficiency change except pure technical efficiency in Liaoning.

婴儿体脂指数的影响因素分析

目的探究不同性别婴儿体脂指数(FMI)的影响因素。方法于2021年10月至2022年12月,在山东省开展婴儿体成分的横断面研究,对研究对象进行电子问卷调查和体成分测量获取研究数据,最终纳入9291份有效数据,应用多因素线性回归分析不同性别婴儿FMI的影响因素。结果不同性别婴儿月龄与FMI具有显著正相关。与适于胎龄儿相比,大于胎龄儿的FMI增加(β值分别为0.086、0.078,P<0.001),小于胎龄儿的FMI降低(β值分别为-0.088、-0.072,P<0.001)。与6月龄以后添加辅食相比,4~6月龄添加辅食男女婴儿FMI均增加,差异均具有统计学意义(β值分别为0.099、0.053,P<0.001)。与父母亲体重正常相比、父母亲肥胖与婴儿FMI的增加显著相关(β值分别为0.058、0.070和0.054、0.058,P<0.001),母亲体重过低与婴儿FMI降低显著相关(β值分别为-0.039、-0.046,P=0.005、0.002)。妊娠期糖尿病与婴儿FMI降低显著相关(β值分别为-0.039、-0.046,P=0.005、0.002),妊娠期高血压与男婴FMI升高显著相关(β=0.028,P=0.038)。纯配方奶喂养对女婴FMI存在显著正向影响(β=0.029,P=0.046)。孕期增重不足对女婴FMI存在显著负向影响(β=-0.033,P=0.032)。结论影响婴儿身体成分的因素有胎龄别体重、喂养方式、辅食添加时间、母亲孕期增重及孕期疾病等,应在生命早期采取干预措施进行控制,预防子代代谢性疾病的发生。

西昌市中学生高血压发病情况及其危险因素分析

目的分析西昌市中学生高血压发病情况及相关危险因素,指导西昌市中学生高血压的防治。方法采用整群随机抽样的方法,从西昌市及周边乡镇学校收集学生数约13999例,全部进行血压测量,明确高血压的诊断及高血压相关危险因素,包括性别、年龄、民族、体重指数等,分析高血压发病情况及相关危险因素。结果本人群中共有高血压患者31人,高血压患病率0.221%。其中男性高血压患病率(0.448%)高于女性高血压患病率(0.027%),平均收缩压及舒张压均高于女性(P<0.01)。少数民族中学生平均舒张压水平低于汉族中学生平均舒张压水平,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。不同年龄段各组间的高血压患病率及血压均值比较,差异有统计学意义,19~22岁组高血压患病率最高,平均血压最高(P<0.01)。不同体重指数各组间的高血压患病率及血压均值比较,差异有统计学意义,肥胖高血压患病率最高,平均收缩压及舒张压最高(P<0.01)。结论性别、年龄、体重指数是西昌市中学生高血压发病独立危险因素,其中性别是最显著影响因素。

生态旅游赋能矿山修复开发适宜性评价及影响因素

【目的】发展生态旅游赋能以绿色矿山为代表的矿山土地综合修复利用受到广泛关注,研究生态旅游赋能矿山修复开发适宜性评价体系与影响因素,为全国绿色矿山生态旅游高质量发展提供技术支撑。【方法】基于层次分析法(AHP)从科研价值、历史文化价值、休闲游憩价值、生态环境价值、矿区开发条件、城市开发环境6个维度构建了绿色矿山生态旅游评价指标体系,以湖南为案例地,运用因子分析法测算湖南绿色矿山生态旅游开发适宜性评价,采用多元线性回归方法分析了湖南绿色矿山生态旅游开发的影响因素。【结果】结果显示,湖南绿色矿山生态旅游开发评价指标综合评分最高为0.84,最低为0.38,开发评价指标综合评分差距较小。旅游资源丰富程度、生态环境质量、政策支持情况通过了1%水平的显著性检验,基础设施、相关者的参与度和友善度、交通便利性通过了5%水平的显著性检验,且与湖南绿色矿山生态旅游开发存在正相关关系,风险安全状况对湖南绿色矿山生态旅游开发影响不显著。【结论】湖南省生态旅游赋能矿山修复开发潜力大,为此,应加强政府的宏观规划管理,制定相应政策法规,引导和保障矿山生态旅游开发。加强科学技术与数字化水平,加大创新投入,充分利用矿山遗留资源和当地文化,在生态修复保护的基础上,提高矿山生态旅游价值,打造矿山生态旅游产品。

体重指数对老年心房颤动患者导管消融术后复发的影响

目的探讨体重指数(BMI)与老年心房颤动患者导管消融术后复发的关系以及对心房颤动复发的预测价值。方法收集2018年1月至2019年12月入住安徽医科大学第一附属医院心血管内科并接受导管消融术的219例老年(≥60岁)心房颤动患者一般情况资料,体格测量资料,血液学、心脏超声影像学等指标,分析BMI值对老年心房颤动患者导管消融术后复发的影响以及对术后心房颤动复发的预测价值。结果BMI值、心房颤动类型为非阵发性以及左心房内径都是老年心房颤动患者导管消融术后心房颤动复发的影响因素,且BMI值对老年心房颤动患者导管消融术后复发有较好的预测价值(AUC=0.595,95%CI:0.526~0.662,P=0.016)。结论BMI值过高是老年心房颤动患者导管消融术后复发的独立影响因素,对老年心房颤动患者导管消融术后复发具有预测意义。

中国省域科技成果转化效率评价及影响因素分析——基于超效率SBM-Malmquist-Tobit模型

[研究目的]提升省域科技成果转化效率,对提高国家科技发展水平和竞争力具有重要意义。[研究方法]以我国31个省(区、市)为研究对象,运用SBM-Malmquist模型对省域科技成果转化效率进行静态与动态分析,进一步结合Tobit回归模型分析科技成果转化效率的影响因素。[研究结论]我国省域科技成果转化效率整体表现良好,区域间呈现出“中部>东部>西部>东北部”的态势,且各区域之间差异较大。我国科技成果转化效率增长主要得益于技术进步,技术进步对科技成果转化效率的拉动作用抵消了技术效率变化和规模效率变化衰退的影响,市场需求和地区产业结构对科技成果转化效率具有显著正向作用,经济发展水平和财政支持对科技成果转化效率的影响不显著。推进我国科技成果转化效率的提高,仍需要从区域协同、投入产出结构优化、技术进步等方面发力。

北方寒冷地区交通碳排放驱动因素分析

北方地区气候寒冷,交通工具燃油效率低、车内加热需求增加及路面积雪结冰等复杂道路条件导致交通碳排放增加。因此,有必要针对寒冷地区的交通碳排放驱动因素进行分析,识别关键因素,并有针对性地降低碳排放。以典型北方寒冷地区黑龙江省为例,采用Tapio脱钩测度模型及GDIM因素分解法对2006—2021年黑龙江省交通行业碳排放驱动因素展开分析,分解得到8个驱动因素并发现其脱钩状态呈现“强脱钩-扩张负脱钩-强脱钩”,其中交通产值碳强度和单位交通行业产值的能耗促进脱钩,交通行业总产值和总周转量阻碍脱钩;另外交通行业总产值、能源消耗量对碳排放有较强的促进作用,交通产值碳强度和单位交通行业产值的能耗对碳排放有较强的抑制作用。

冬小麦不完善粒气象条件危险性指数研究

为探明气象条件对河南省冬小麦籽粒不完善粒的影响,利用2008—2021年河南省不同地市冬小麦收获期大田测定的不完善粒资料和对应气象资料,利用最小显著性差异法、Person相关分析、权重系数等方法,分析出气象条件影响不完善粒的关键时段和主导气象因子,并构建了气象条件危险性指数I。结果表明:冬小麦成熟前20天内的气象条件对籽粒不完善粒有重要影响,其中豫南麦区主要受成熟前10天内的气象条件影响。不同地区不完善粒受不同气象因子的组合作用,总降水量R和总降水日数D为共性主导因子,豫东麦区还受成熟前平均气温T主导,北中西部麦区还受成熟前日照时数S和气温日较差Td主导。豫南麦区成熟前10天内连续降水日数超过3天、总降水量超过70 mm、总降水日数大于6天时,籽粒不完善粒>8%的可能性较高;各麦区I>5.8时,冬小麦不完善粒气象条件危险性高。

基于统计的语音传输指数预测方法实验对比

良好的言语可懂度是语言声厅堂声环境设计的重要目标,语音传输指数(STI)是言语可懂度的客观评价参量。在设计阶段就能对STI做出准确预测,对语言声厅堂的声环境控制具有重要意义。基于统计的STI预测方法是IEC 60268-16标准推荐的主要预测方法,但对于使用该方法时的影响因素以及预测精度,当前仍缺少系统性的实验对比研究。该文使用4个房间中13个测点共52种听音条件下的STI实测结果,分析了基于统计的STI预测方法的精度以及影响因素,结果表明:考虑和不考虑直达声的两种预测方法,都存在着系统偏差,预测结果普遍小于实测值;在距离声源较近测点的预测都产生了较大误差,在距离声源较远测点的预测误差相对较小;基于单指数衰变声场不考虑直达声的预测方法操作简单,但误差较大,52种听音条件的平均误差达到了-0.032,最大误差达到了-0.131;考虑直达声的预测方法误差相对较小,52种听音条件的STI平均误差为-0.018,最大误差为-0.080;预测精度主要受所使用的信噪比、扬声器的指向性、房间的声场条件等因素影响,并对这些因素的影响进行了对比分析。结果可为STI预测方法的使用者提供参考。

基于HFACS模型的军事演训活动风险评估指标体系构建

基于人因分析与分类系统(HFACS)分析军事演训活动的全面风险,考虑联合军事演训和新域新质作战力量的特点,并突出演训活动的战斗力标准。在改进HFACS模型分析框架的基础上,逐层次细化拆解,建立初步的风险评估指标库,并结合专家知识运用风险矩阵对指标库进行优化。构建人为因素视角下涵盖战斗力的风险、组织管理的风险、不安全行为的前提条件的风险和不安全行为的风险等4个方面以及包含战斗精神、新型主战武器、智能装备等在内的15项极高风险指标、20项高风险指标和8项中风险指标的风险评估指标体系。

温肺扶阳祛痰方治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病稳定期的疗效

目的探讨温肺扶阳祛痰方治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)稳定期疗效。方法选取COPD稳定期患者120例,随机分为两组。对照组应用噻托溴铵吸入粉雾剂^(+)茶碱缓释片,研究组在此基础上应用温肺扶阳祛痰方,对两组的肺功能、免疫、炎症因子指标以及生活质量进行评估,确定其应用价值。结果和对照组比较,研究组治疗后用力肺活量(FVC)、第1秒用力呼气容积(FEV1)、第1秒用力呼气容积/用力肺活量(FEV1/FVC)、6 min步行距离(6MWD)均增大(P<0.05),CAT评分降低(P<0.05)。研究组治疗后C反应蛋白(CRP)、白细胞计数(WBC)、中性粒细胞计数(NEUT)水平均低于对照组(P<0.05)。研究组治疗后CD4^(+)、CD8^(+)T细胞比例、IgA、IgG水平优于对照组(P<0.05)。结论COPD稳定期患者在常规西药治疗基础上应用温肺扶阳祛痰方治疗效果更佳,可以有效降低机体中的炎症因子水平,提高患者肺功能和免疫功能,值得推广应用。

动态动脉硬化指数联合血清肿瘤坏死因子受体相关因子6、前蛋白转化酶枯草溶菌素9对急性分水岭脑梗死病人的预后价值

目的探究动态动脉硬化指数(AASI)联合血清肿瘤坏死因子受体相关因子6(TRAF6)、前蛋白转化酶枯草溶菌素9(PCSK9)对急性分水岭脑梗死(CWI)病人的预后价值。方法选取2019年8月至2021年8月保定市第二中心医院收治的96例急性CWI病人为研究组,另取同期体检健康者80例为对照组。收集病人一般临床资料,并对研究组和对照组的血清TRAF6、PCSK9水平及AASI进行检测;根据研究组病人预后情况将其分为预后良好组(67例)和预后不良组(29例),多因素logistic回归分析急性CWI病人预后的影响因素;绘制AASI与血清TRAF6、PCSK9对急性CWI病人预后评估的受试者操作特征曲线(ROC曲线)。结果研究组血清TRAF6(1.48±0.34)µg/L、PCSK9(97.25±14.25)µg/L水平及AASI(0.56±0.15)高于对照组(0.87±0.19)µg/L、(82.78±9.17)µg/L、(0.36±0.11)(P<0.05)。预后良好组与预后不良组年龄、美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(NIHSS)评分、空腹血糖、狭窄程度及血管斑块性质差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。预后不良组血清TRAF6(1.77±0.37)µg/L、PCSK9(104.82±17.93)µg/L水平及AASI(0.62±0.12)高于预后良好组(1.35±0.21)µg/L、(93.97±12.65)µg/L、0.53±0.09(P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示NIHSS评分、狭窄程度、血管斑块性质、AASI、血清TRAF6、PCSK9水平是急性CWI病人预后的影响因素(P<0.05)。AASI联合血清TRAF6、PCSK9预测急性CWI病人预后的AUC是0.92,灵敏度为93.10%,特异度为76.12%,Youden指数为0.69,优于AASI、TRAF6、PCSK9各自单独预测(P<0.05)。结论急性CWI病人血清TRAF6、PCSK9水平显著升高,联合AA-SI对病人的预后状况具有较高的预测效能,可为临床的合理干预和改善病人预后提供依据。

1999—2018年广东省自然灾害灾情时空变化特征及影响因素研究

为科学评估广东省自然灾害灾情时空演化特征,以1999—2018年广东省自然灾害损失基本数据为基础,利用CRITIC权重法构建综合灾情指数模型,同时,利用地理探测器从多因子角度对广东省自然灾害灾情从时间、空间上开展研究,探究其变化规律和影响因素。结果表明:时间上,总体灾情具有指数波动剧烈、大小灾年交替、不同维度线性趋势不一致等特点;空间上,空间分异程度较大,综合灾情指数城市分布为边缘高—中间低的格局,无明显集中趋势。地理探测器中的因子探测分析对灾情大小的影响,极端气象因子起直接作用,地形地表因子起间接作用,基础建设因子起助推作用,防灾减灾因子起缓冲作用;交互探测分析发现,地势起伏度、人均绿地公园面积、经济发达程度在与其他各因子共同作用时对广东省灾情影响作用较大。