Optimized Operation of Park Integrated Energy System with Source-Load Flexible Response Based on Comprehensive Evaluation Index

To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evaluation index is proposed.Firstly,a source-load flexible response model is proposed under the stepped carbon trading mechanism;the organic Rankine cycle is introduced into the source-side to construct a flexible response model with traditional combined heat and power(CHP)unit and electric boiler to realize the flexible response of CHP to load;and the load-side categorizes loads into transferable,interruptible,and substitutable loads according to the load characteristics and establishes a comprehensive demand response model.Secondly,the analytic network process(ANP)considers the linkages between indicators and allows decision-makers to consider the interactions of elements in a complex dynamic system,resulting in more realistic indicator assignment values.Considering the economy,energy efficiency,and environment,the PIES optimization operation model based on the ANP comprehensive evaluation index is constructed to optimize the system operation comprehensively.Finally,the CPLEX solver inMATLABwas employed to solve the problem.The results of the example showthat the source-load flexible response model proposed in this paper reduces the operating cost of the system by 29.90%,improves the comprehensive utilization rate by 15.00%,and reduces the carbon emission by 26.98%,which effectively enhances the system’s economy and low carbon,and the comprehensive evaluation index based on the ANP reaches 0.95,which takes into account the economy,energy efficiency,and the environment,and is more superior than the single evaluation index.

Analysis on Scale, Level and Structure of China-Kazakhstan Intra-Industry Trade of Energy Products-Based on Silk. Road Economic Zone as Strategic Background

论文依次从规模、水平、结构三个角度,分析1999年-2014年中国与哈萨克斯坦能源产品产业内贸易发展状况D 结果表明：中哈能源产品贸易规模扩大,但以产业间贸易为主,产业内贸易集中于石油产品,其中垂直型产业内贸易占主要地位,能源产品产业内贸易有较大提升空间D 在此基础上对中哈能源产品产业内贸易影响因素进行探究,考察经济规模、收入差异、贸易公平程度、外商直接投资等四个因素对产业内贸易的影响,为发展中哈能源贸易提供实证依据及合理建议.

UN Comtrade数据共享平台设计与实现

UN Comtrade(United Nations international trade statistics database)是全球最大且应用最为广泛的国际贸易数据库,具有高权威性与完整性.本文在框架体系结构设计与数据表结构设计基础上构建UN Comtrade数据共享平台,以期为地理学研究提供数据与工具支撑.在数据聚合策略方面,平台通过综合集成数据爬取、加载模块并嵌套多种错误修正方法,实现5亿多条商品贸易记录的动态高容错聚合.在检索策略方面,平台通过分区复合索引提升数据检索指令执行效率与可扩展性.检索试验表明,平台能够在80用户并发模式下稳定执行不同类型检索指令,并且通过调用ODBC/JDBC接口将计算过程融入检索任务,可以更加有效利用服务器端资源并节省数据传输与读写耗时,具有效率更高、简化数据处理过程等优点.2017年平台被应用于中-美商品显性比较优势特征检索-计算-格网化表达-对比分析,案例表明平台具有高效、稳定的并发检索效率,以及高可扩展性等优点,可以为贸易特征计算与分析提供便捷快速、形式多样的数据共享服务.

Baidu index and predictability of Chinese stock returns

A number of studies have investigated the predictability of Chinese stock returns with economic variables.Given the newly emerged dataset from the Internet,this paper investigates whether the Baidu Index can be employed to predict Chinese stock returns.The empirical results show that 1)the Search Frequency of Baidu Index(SFBI)can predict next day’s price changes;2)the stock prices go up when individual investors pay less attention to the stocks and go down when individual investors pay more attention to the stocks;3)the trading strategy constructed by shorting on the most SFBI and longing on the least SFBI outperforms the corresponding market index returns without consideration of the transaction costs.These results complement the existing literature on the predictability of Chinese stock returns and have potential implications for asset pricing and risk management.

Analysis of Financial Derivatives by Mechanical Method (Ⅰ)——Basic Equation of Price of Index Futures

Similar to the method of continuum mechanics, the variation of the price of index futures is viewed to be continuous and regular. According to the characteristic of index futures, a basic equation of price of index futures was established. It is a differential equation, its solution shows that the relation between time and price forms a logarithmic circle. If the time is thought of as the probability of its corresponding price, then such a relation is perfectly coincided with the main assumption of the famous formula of option pricing, based on statistical theory, established by Black and Scholes, winner of 1997 Nobel’ prize on economy. In that formula, the probability of price of basic assets (they stand for index futures here) is assummed to be a logarithmic normal distribution. This agreement shows that the same result may be obtained by two analytic methods with different bases. However, the result, given by assumption by Black_Scholes, is derived from the solution of the differential equation.

The impact of foreign trade and FDI on environmental pollution

Over the past 30 years China＇s economy has made tremendous development and going on the road of opening-up is an important aspect of the successful experience, which should be unswervingly adhered to in the further. However, rationally looking at how different the impact of foreign economic activities on China＇s economy and society is economic workers＇ main task. From 1982 to 2006, based on six categories of China＇s environmental indicators, the paper improves the entropy method to calculate the environmental pollution index which can represent China＇s overall environmental situation, uses the VAR model of the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to study the impact of foreign trade, FDI on China＇s environmental pollution in the long-term. The results show that, FDI and import trade is conducive to the improvement of the quality of our environment and export trade is the deterioration of our environment, ＂pollution haven＂ hypothesis is proved in China. Export trade is an important variable that aggravates environmental pollution.

Accounting and Responsibility Allocation on Carbon Emissions Embodied in International Trade

This paper calculated the scale of carbon emissions embodied in the import and export of the world＇s major countries based on input-output principles and international trade data, as well as data on various countries＇carbon emissions in 2005 from domestic consumption and emissions embodied in trade. The results illustrate that, because of international trade, consumers in developed countries should bear the responsibility for a large portion of CO2 emissions. The researchers separated the net transfer balance of embodied emissions in international trade according to four different effects： size effect, exchange rate effect, structural effect, and pure technical effect, all of which favor the sharing of responsibilities between producers and consumers.

Changes in Net Barter Terms of Trade for Sino-Australian Agricultural Products after China's Accession to the WTO

Using " chain-based and constant-based" two-step method,this paper measured Paasche net barter terms of trade index for SinoAustralian agricultural products from 2001 to 2013,and further calculated contribution of each category of agricultural products to changes in overall net barter terms of trade. The results showed that since 2001,the overall net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products fluctuated between deterioration and improvement. In 2013,the net barter terms of trade index was 1. 02,and its improvement is not significant. From 2001 to 2013,the net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products improved about 16. 44%,which dominated by the category 0 agricultural products whose influence degree is 6 times and 28 times the degree of category 4 and category 1. In years when the net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products deteriorated,category 2 agricultural products were the root cause for the deterioration.

ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES BY MECHANICAL METHOD (Ⅰ)-BASIC EQUATION OF PRICE OF INDEX FUTURES

Similar to the method of continuum mechanics, the variation of the price of index futures is viewed to be continuous and regular. According to the characteristic of index futures, a basic equation of price of index futures was established. It is a differential equation, its solution shows that the relation between time and price forms a logarithmic circle. If the time is thought of as the probability of its corresponding price, then such a relation is perfectly coincided with the main assumption of the famous formula of option pricing, based on statistical theory, established by Black and Scholes winner of 1997 Nobel' prize on economy. In that formula, the probability of price of basic assets (they stand for index futures here) is assummed to be a logarithmic normal distribution. This agreement shows that the same result may be obtained by two analytic methods with different bases. However, the result, given by assumption by Black-Scholes, is derived from the solution of the differential equation.

Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China’s Total Foreign Trade

On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, China’s economic growth level has steadily risen and its international status has gradually improved. However, as the global economic downturn, China is facing tremendous challenges and pressures in the international economic and financial markets. The turbulence of foreign trade and international financial markets has put forward greater requirements for the flexibility of China’s financial strategy. Based on the annual data of China’s total foreign trade, exchange rate, commodity retail price index and the proportion of tertiary industry from 2002 to 2017, this paper constructs a multiple regression model to analyze the main influencing factors of China’s total foreign trade. The empirical results show that there is a positive relationship between the commodities retail price index and the total foreign trade, a negative relationship between the proportion of tertiary industry and the total foreign trade, and a positive relationship between the exchange rate of RMB (taking US dollar as an example) and the total foreign trade. On the basis of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward suggestions on relevant financial policies.

Measuring Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Using Trade Network Analysis Method

With the trade network analysis method and bilateral country-product level trade data of 2017-2020,this paper reveals the overall characteristics and intrinsic vulnerabilities of China’s global supply chains.Our research finds that first,most global supply-chain-vulnerable products are from technology-intensive sectors.For advanced economies,their supply chain vulnerabilities are primarily exposed to political and economic alliances.In comparison,developing economies are more dependent on regional communities.Second,China has a significant export advantage with over 80%of highly vulnerable intermediate inputs relying on imports of high-end electrical,mechanical and chemical products from advanced economies or their multinational companies.China also relies on developing economies for the import of some resource products.Third,during the trade frictions from 2018 to 2019 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic,there was a significant reduction in the supply chain vulnerabilities of China and the US for critical products compared with other products,which reflects a shift in the layout of critical product supply chains to ensure not just efficiency but security.China should address supply chain vulnerabilities by bolstering supply-side weaknesses,diversifying import sources,and promoting international coordination and cooperation.

Cost-benefit analysis of trading strategies in the stock index futures market

With the introduction of many derivatives into the capital market,including stock index futures,the trading strategies in financial markets have been gradually enriched.However,there is still no theoretical model that can determine whether these strategies are effective,what the risks are,and how costly the strategies are.We built an agent-based cross-market platform that includes five stocks and one stock index future,and constructed an evaluation system for stock index futures trading strategies.The evaluation system includes four dimensions:effectiveness,risk,occupation of capital,and impact cost.The results show that the informed strategy performs well in all aspects.The risk of the technical strategy is relatively higher than that of the other strategies.Moreover,occupation of capital and impact cost are both higher for the arbitrage strategy.Finally,the wealth of noise traders is almost lost.

Competitiveness and Complementarity of Cocoon Silk Trade between China and Southeast Asia

In the context of the Belt and Road Initiative,it is of great significance to study the trade ties between China and Southeast Asia with cocoon silk as a link.Trend analysis,trade competitiveness index and trade complementarity index were comprehensively used in this paper to study the competitiveness and complementarity of the cocoon silk trade between China and Southeast Asia.The results show that the export trade volume of cocoon silk of China and Southeast Asia is decreasing while fluctuating,but it is difficult for other regions to replace their export trade status in the world market.The development trend of the replacement of the silkworm cocoon trade by the raw silk trade is presented.The cocoon silk trade of China and Southeast Asia is characterized by dislocation competition.China's raw silk export trade is competitive and has become the leader of the raw silk export camp.This paper further analyzes the changes and complementarities of the cocoon silk trade competitiveness between China and Southeast Asia.

Thailand-Japan＇s Volume of Trade Influencing on Socio-economic and Well-Being Development Using Maximum Entropy Bootstrap

This paper is preliminary information on some empirical findings based on an analysis of Thailand＇s macroeconomic data. The purpose of the study is to quantify social-economic well-being development with special emphasis on poverty. The maximum entropy bootstrap was presented that did not require the property of stationarity. Moreover, the methodology was stratified both the ergodic theorem and the central limit theorem. Thailand＇s GINI index and Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade data cover the 14-year period from 1998 to 2011. There is a statistically significant negative non-linear relationship between endogenous Thailand＇s GINI index and exogenous Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade. The results confirmed that every lagged one percent increase in Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade influenced by a decrease of Thailand＇s GINI index coefficient 0.039 percent with the asymmetric around 0-almost closed to range condition -0.034824348 at 2.5%.

基于TradeBlazer语言的高频套利在股指期货中的应用

套利是股指期货投资方式常见的一种,由于其风险低、收益稳健,而受到很多机构投资者的青睐。但是套利交易频率高,时间短促,盈利机会稍纵即逝,所以亟需借助程序化交易。从实证角度,基于专业量化交易软件"交易开拓者"TradeBlazer,利用高频数据构建均值回复套利策略,为机构投资者跨期套利提供一个可行的框架。

Comparative Analysis of Rice Export Competitiveness in Heilongjiang Province of China Based on Index Method

Based on the analysis of rice planting and export development in Heilongjiang Province in 2013-2021,this paper comprehensively used three export competitiveness analysis methods,namely,trade competitiveness index,revealed comparative advantage(RCA)analysis and international market share analysis,to compare the four major rice exporters in the world and the three major rice export provinces and cities in China.Besides,it evaluated the rice export competitiveness of Heilongjiang Province from multiple perspectives.It analyzed the reasons for low competitiveness in terms of export product structure,export market structure,production and processing technology,and brand building.Finally,it is recommended to clarify the positioning of rice export quality and take more measures to ensure product quality;improve the level of industrialization of rice production and processing,and extend the rice industry chain;develop diversified rice export markets and improve export flexibility;adhere to the principle of"opening the door and going out",expand the international popularity of high-quality brands,so as to enhance the rice export competitiveness of Heilongjiang Province.

An empirical study on the international competitiveness tourism trade in Mongolia

With the rapid development of world trade, tourism and trade in services plays a more important role in a country＇ s economic and trade activities, and as a measure of a country＇s international competitiveness of the important criteria. Tourism service trade competence if individual countries are becoming stronger.

口岸经济高质量发展水平评价指标体系构建与测度——基于云南的实证研究

加快口岸由“通道经济”转型为“产业经济”,是“一带一路”建设高质量发展的重要内容。基于高质量发展目标要求,对口岸经济高质量发展的内涵、特征进行学理性探讨,依托层次分析思想构建测度口岸经济高质量发展水平的评价指标体系。以边境口岸数量多、类型丰富的云南省为研究对象,选取2012—2021年数据,运用CRITIC权重法,对云南口岸经济高质量发展水平进行测度并分析其趋势特征。研究发现:样本期内云南口岸经济高质量发展水平总体呈现上升趋势,口岸经济协调发展和开放发展提升显著,创新发展有待加强,共享作用显现,绿色发展不平稳,岸城协调性不足。推动云南口岸经济高质量发展要转变发展理念,扩大高水平对外开放,建立岸岸、岸城协调发展机制,完善口岸基础设施,加强口岸开放发展能力,以此推进云南口岸现代化建设进程。

Analysis of Chinese A gricultural Product Trade

This paper clarifies thestatus of Chinese agricultural product trade through the calculation of Chinese agricultural product trade competitive advantage index for a total of 21 years from 1999 to 2019.

Development of Agricultural Products Trade between China and Four South Asian Countries--An Empirical Analysis Based on Trade Competitiveness and Complementarity

For the purpose of study,based on the data provided by the United Nations Comtrade Database in 2006-2016,and using the trade competitive advantage index,trade intensity index and trade complementarity index,this paper made an empirical analysis on the development of agricultural trade between China and four South Asian countries. The results show that the scale of agricultural trade between China and the four South Asian countries was further expanded,but the growth rate was stable and the trade share declined,but the development potential of both sides has not been fully explored. Generally,China's agricultural products remain at a relatively disadvantaged position. Trade competitiveness and complementarity coexist. There is a large development potential and cooperation space for agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries.