IMPACT OF LATENT HEAT FLUX ON INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON DURING EL NIO/LA NIA YEARS

El Nio or La Nia manifest in December over the Pacific and will serve as an index for the forecasting of subsequent Indian summer monsoon,which occurs from June to mid-September.In the present article,an attempt is made to study the variation of latent heat flux (LHF) over the north Indian Ocean during strong El Nio and strong La Nia and relate it with Indian monsoon rainfall.During strong El Nio the LHF intensity is higher and associated with higher wind speed and lower cloud amount.During El Nio all India rainfall is having an inverse relation with LHF.Seasonal rainfall is higher in YY+1 (subsequent year) than YY (year of occurrence).However there is a lag in rainfall during El Nio YY+1 from June to July when compared with the monthly rainfall.

Surface Pressure and Summer Monsoon Rainfall over India

The relationship between the all-India summer monsoon rainfall and surface pressure over the Indian region has been examined to obtain a useful predictor for the monsoon rainfall. The data series of all-India monsoon rainfall and the mean pressures of three seasons before and after the monsoon season as well as the winter-to-spring pressure tendency (MAM-DJF) at 100 stations for the period 1951-1980 have been used in the analysis.The all-India monsoon rainfall is negatively correlated with the pressure of the spring (MAM) season preceding the monsoon and winter-to-spring seasonal difference as pressure tendency (MAM-DJF), at almost all the stations in India, and significantly with the pressures over central and northwestern regions. The average mean sea level pressure of six stations (Jodhpur, Ahmedabed, Bombay, Indore, Sagar and Akola) in the Western Central Indian (WCI) region showed highly significant (at 1% level) and consistent CCs of-0.63 for MAM and -0.56 for MAM-DJF for the period 1951 - 1980. Thus, the pre-monsoon seasonal pressure anomalies over WCI could provide a useful parameter for the long-range forecasting scheme of the Indian monsoon rainfall.

A Universal Spectrum for Interannual Variability of Monsoon Rainfall over India

Continuous periodogram analyses of 115 years (1871-1985) summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region show that the power spectra follow the universal and unique inverse power law form of the statistical normal distribution with the percentage contribution to total variance representing the eddy probability corresponding to the normalized standard deviation equal to [(log L / log T50)-1] where L is the period length in years and T50 the period up to which the cumulative percentage contribution to total variance is equal to 50. The above results are consistent with a recently developed non-deterministic cell dynamical model for atmospheric flows. The implications of the above result for prediction of interannual variability of rainfall is discussed.

Monsoonal Influence on Evapotranspiration of the Tropical Mangrove Forest in Northeast India

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important part of the water cycle. This study reports on the monsoonal influence on the temporal variation in evapotranspiration of an extremely water conservative and salinity stressed tropical mangrove forest at the land-ocean boundary of northeast coast of India. The magnitude and dynamics of evapotranspiration (ET) exhibited seasonality dominated by monsoon and evaporation rate was greater (0.055 ± 0.015 g·m-2·s-1) during the monsoon than in pre-monsoon (0.049 ± 0.018 g·m-2·s-1) and post-monsoon (0.044 ± 0.012 g·m-2·s-1). Seasonal difference in evapotranpiration was mostly due to fluctuation of canopy resistance, which was the minimum during monsoon when relative humidity was greater than in the dry season (pre- and post-monsoon) and deficiency of water supply (ET ≈ ETeq) was minimum. Evapotranspiration in the Sundarban mangrove ecosystem is the predominant biophysical processes that recycles 67.7% of total precipitation annually to the atmosphere, and has significant monsoonal influence.

Southern and Tropical Indian Ocean SST: A Possible Predictor of Winter Monsoon Rainfall over South India

The complexities in the relationship between winter monsoon rainfall (WMR) over South India and Sea Surface temperature (SST) variability in the southern and tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) are evaluated statistically. The data of the time period of our study (1950-2003) have been divided exactly in two halves to identify predictors. Correlation analysis is done to see the effect of STIO SST variability on winter monsoon rainfall index (WMRI) for South India with a lead-lag of 8 seasons (two years). The significant positive correlation is found between Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) SST and WMRI in July-August-September season having a lag of one season. The SST of the SIO, Bay of Bengal and North Equatorial Indian Ocean are negatively correlated with WMRI at five, six and seven seasons before the onset of winter monsoon. The maximum positive correlation of 0.61 is found from the region south of 500 S having a lag of one season and the negative correlations of 0.60, 0.53 and 0.57 are found with the SST of the regions SIO, Bay of Bengal and North Equatorial Ocean having lags of five, six and seven seasons respectively and these correlation coefficients have confidence level of 99%. Based on the correlation analysis, we defined Antarctic Circumpolar Current Index A and B (ACCIA (A) & ACCIB (B)), Bay of Bengal index (BOBI (C)) and North Equatorial Index (NEI (D)) by averageing SST for the regions having maximum correlation (positive or negative) with WMRI index. These SST indices are used to predict the WMRI using linear and multivariate linear regression models. In addition, we also attempted to detect a dynamic link for the predictability of WMRI using Nino 3.4 index. The predictive skill of these indices is tested by error analysis and Willmott’s index.

Buried channels provide keys to infer Quaternary stratigraphic and paleo-environmental changes:A case study from the west coast of India

High resolution shallow seismic data was acquired from inner continental shelf of Goa,west coast of India to map underlying stratigraphic and buried geomorphic features of shelf strata.Seismic data revealed characteristic channel incisions beneath 4-15 m thick sediment layer and corresponds to multi cycle incisions.Stratigraphic analysis of these incision signatures reveals three prominent subaerial unconformities S6,S7 and S9.These unconformities were exposed during the last glacial,penultimate glacial(MIS-6)and prior to penultimate glacial(MIS-8)periods.On the basis of interpreted age of subaerial unconformities and differences in their morphological features,observed channel incisions have been divided grossly into three phases of incision.Phase-1 incisions are older than^330 kyr BP,whereas,incisions of Phase-2 and Phase-3 correspond to^320-125 kyr BP and^115-10 kyr BP respectively.Plan form of these incisions varied from a straight channel type to ingrown meander and then to anastomosing channel types.These channels meet at the confluence of present-day Mandovi and Zuari rivers.The confluence point has varied in due course of time because of cyclic incision and burial with repeated sea level fluctuations.The preserved main channel width varies from^100 m to 1000 m.and maximum channel depth reaches up to^35 m.Comparison of quantitative and qualitative morphologic results of different phases of incisions suggest that Phase-2 channels had^33%more mean bank full discharge than that of the Phase-3 channels.Phase-2 incisions had been carved in higher hydraulic energy condition as compared to Phase-3 incisions implying that the Indian summer monsoon was better during formative stages of Phase-2 incisions.

How Accurately Contemporary Models Can Predict Monsoons?

Seasonal changes exhibit climate changes, so models can predict future climate change accurately only if they can reproduce seasonal cycle accu-rately. Further, seasonal changes are much larger than the changes even in long period of centuries. Thus it is unwise to ignore large ones compared to small climate change. In this paper, we determine how accurately a suite of ten coupled general circulation models reproduce the observed seasonal cycle in rainfall of the tropics. The seasonal cycles in rainfall of global tropics are known as monsoons. We found that the models can reasonably reproduce the seasonal cycle in rainfall, thus are useful in climate prediction and simulation of global monsoons.

亚洲热带夏季风的首发地区和机理研究

文中分析了多年逐候平均 85 0hPa风场和黑体辐射温度等物理量的时空演变 ,结果表明 ,90°E以东的孟加拉湾、中南半岛和南海是亚洲热带夏季风首先爆发的地区 ,爆发时间在 2 7～ 2 8候 ,具有突发性和同时性。 90°E以西的印度半岛和阿拉伯海是热带夏季风爆发较晚的地区 ,季风首先在该区 10°N以南爆发 ,时间约在 30～ 31候 ,然后向北推进 ,6月末在全区建立 ,爆发过程具有渐进性。机制分析表明 ,由于 110～ 12 0°E的中高纬东亚大陆在春季和初夏地面感热通量、温度和气压的迅速变化 ,使热带低压带首先在该处冲破高压带 ,生成大陆低压 ,并引导西南气流在 90°E以东地区首先建立。在 90°E以西的印度半岛地区 ,地面感热通量在 4～ 5月间几乎没有明显变化 ,因而印度季风比南海季风晚爆发约 1个月。由此得出 ,90°E是东亚夏季风和南亚夏季风的分界线。此外 ,还着重探讨了南亚高压的季节变化与亚洲热带夏季风爆发的时间联系。发现南亚高压中心位置与亚洲热带夏季风爆发时间有较好的对应关系。南亚高压中心跳过 2 0°N时 ,南海夏季风爆发 ,跳过 2 5°N时 ,印度夏季风在其南部爆发。将用上述方法确定的爆发时间与用其他方法确定的爆发时间相比较 ,发现它们在南海地区有较好的一致性 ,在印度地区略有差异。

华北和印度夏季风降水变化的对比分析

利用华北和印度夏季降水资料,采用趋势分析、小波变换等方法,对两地区夏季风降水进行了对比分析。结果表明:1)华北和印度夏季风降水量都存在线性减少倾向,但华北更为显著,减少达16mm/10a;2)华北和印度夏季风降水变化都以18a周期为主,近年都有逐渐缩短的趋势,而印度的这种周期缩短得比华北更快,近年降水变化周期接近15a;3)华北和印度夏季风降水变化在1956、1976、1992/1993年发生了趋势转折;4)华北和印度降水量主要集中在6-9月,夏季风降水特征非常明显,但两地变化特征表现不尽相同。

云南哀牢山主峰两侧沉积物孢粉区系成分对比分析

哀牢山作为滇东高原与横断山系南段滇西南山地的分界线,其高大山脉造就了山体两侧气候、植被差异显著。本研究以沉积物孢粉为媒介,对山脉主峰两侧的植物物种区系成分进行对比分析。结果显示,哀牢山西坡样地受印度夏季风影响程度高于东坡样地,沉积物孢粉中热带成分大于东坡,分别为6.8%和4.7%;哀牢山东坡样地则受北来东亚冬季风影响显著,造成东坡样地孢粉中北温带成分远大于西坡样地,分别为26.4%和13.4%。哀牢山成为印度夏季风与东亚冬季风的重要分界之一。

四川省汉源县大渡河干热河谷区清代洪涝灾害特征

[目的]分析四川省汉源县清代洪涝灾害特征及成因,为防灾减灾等工作提供科学支持。[方法]通过对大渡河干热河谷区汉源县清代洪灾等资料的搜集整理,运用数理统计分析等方法,探究了该地区清代洪灾的等级、频次、周期以及成因等问题。[结果]清代汉源县洪涝灾害共计发生55次,平均4.87a发生1次。轻度洪灾、中度洪灾、大洪灾和特大洪灾各占洪灾总数的14.55%,60.00%,21.82%和3.64%,以中度洪灾为主。从清代早期到晚期,洪灾呈波动增加的趋势且有明显的阶段性,1644—1739年和1770—1809年是洪灾少发期,1740—1769年和1810—1911年是洪灾高发期,并出现了5次重大洪灾事件。清代汉源县洪灾存在约5a,10a的震荡周期。[结论]在太阳黑子极值年、印度夏季风强盛期及南方涛动(ENSO)事件年前后出现洪灾的机率极大。清代中期以后的人口快速增长、农业垦殖、森林破坏等人为无序开发加剧了洪灾频次和严重程度。

1992年西藏中部初夏干旱的环流特征分析

1992年初夏西藏中部沿江河谷地区、昌都地区及那曲西部出现严重干旱。分析表明,副高位置偏南,北跳偏迟;高原及周边地区从春到夏的环流调整偏迟;印度季风低压爆发迟、强度弱;南亚高压初上高原时间推迟;切变线系统偏弱、位置偏北等,是造成初夏干旱的主要环流背景。

El Ni?o衰退年印度洋海盆模态对印度夏季季风降水的影响

采用全印度陆地降水资料、NCEP/NCAR大气资料以及Had ISST资料集的SST资料,使用经验正交函数分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和相关分析回归分析等统计方法,在前人的基础上,系统研究了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)及印度洋海盆模态(Indian Ocean Basin mode,IOB)对印度夏季季风降水的影响,指出厄尔尼诺衰退年印度夏季降水在反对称模态和北印度洋二次增暖共同的作用下表现出初夏减少晚夏增加的特点。通过观测分析发现,厄尔尼诺在其发展年和衰退年对印度夏季季风降水的影响截然不同。在发展年,中东太平洋的异常增暖引起Walker环流的改变,印度洋区域的下沉气流抑制印度大陆降水。在衰退年,厄尔尼诺对印度洋进行"充电",产生印度洋海盆增暖模态。在这个过程中,局地海气相互作用引起衰退年的印度降水有初夏减少晚夏增加的特点。其中春季印度洋的反对称风场(赤道以北为东北风异常,赤道以南为西北风异常)对印度夏季风有一定的减弱作用,这种异常环流减弱了初夏印度降水。同时反对称风场会造成在夏季北印度洋的二次增暖,又会促进了晚夏降水的异常增加。通过水汽输运通量的诊断分析进一步验证了上述海盆模态对印度夏季降水的作用。

贵州与印度的夏季风的异同分析

季风作为气象科学的一个重要课题 ,许多人都作了大量研究。中国和印度均处于季风区 ,印度季风和中国季风的研究也已作了大量研究 ,揭露了不少事实 ,但中国季风的研究多指我国的东部 ,而贵州位于我国西南部 ,地处东亚季风和印度季风之间的过渡区 ,因此 ,对贵州省的论及较少。从气候的角度出发 ,把贵州和印度的季风的某些特征量 ,如降雨、风、环流等进行对比分析 ,在一定程度上反映了贵州和印度夏季风的主要异同。

Seasonal Variations of Aerosol Optical Depth over East China and India in Relationship to the Asian Monsoon Circulation

Seasonal variation features of aerosol optical depth （AOD） over East China and India in association with the Asian monsoon system are investigated, based on the latest AOD data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spec-troradiometer （MODIS） aboard the Terra satellite, the NCEP Final （FNL） Operational Global Analysis data, the Cli-mate Prediction Center （CPC） Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data, and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from March 2000 to February 2017. The results indicate that AOD in East China is significantly larger than that in India, especially in spring. The seasonal mean AOD in East China is high in both spring and summer but low in fall and winter. However, the AOD averaged over India is highest in summer and lower in spring, fall, and winter. Ana-lysis reveals that AOD is more closely related to changes in surface wind speed in East China, while no obvious rela-tion is found between precipitation and the AOD distribution on the seasonal timescale. As aerosols are mainly dis-tributed in the atmospheric boundary layer （ABL）, the stability of the ABL represented by Richardson number （Ri） is closely correlated with spatial distribution of AOD. The upper and lower tropospheric circulation patterns signific-antly differ between East China and India, resulting in different effects on the AOD. The effect of advection associ-ated with lower tropospheric circulation on the AOD and the influence of convergence and divergence on the AOD distribution play different roles in maintaining the AOD in East China and India. These results improve our under-standing of the mechanism responsible for and differences among the aerosol changes in East China and India.

TELECONNECTION BETWEEN INDIAN MONSOON AND EAST ASIAN CIRCULATION

Correlation analysis identified that Indian summer rainfall and East Asian 500 hPa geopotential height field are significantly correlated.A teleconnection pattern between Indian monsoon and East Asian summer circulation (IEA pattern) was proposed.We suggested that the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern (PJ pattern) primarily influences the meridional position of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) in summer,while IEA pattern partly affects its zonal stretch or the anomaly of geopotential height field over China mainland.The numerical experiments imply that the IEA pattern has important impact on East Asian circulation and it can be stimulated by the SST anomaly of the Indian Ocean.We summarized that there are two ways,a directive way and a selective way,by which ENSO exerts impacts on East Asian summer monsoon.

Connections Between the South Asian Summer Monsoon and the Tropical Sea Surface Temperature in CMIP5

The South Asian summer monsoon（SASM） precipitation is analyzed based on reanalysis datasets and historical simulation results from 23 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5）. The results show that most models reproduce well the climatological pattern of SASM precipitation, but the main rainfall period lags that of the reanalysis by one month. The relationship between the simulated SASM precipitation and sea surface temperature anomalies（SSTAs） is quite similar to the reanalysis data. This is attributed to the well-reproduced Walker cell anomaly in the tropical zone. It is projected that the negative correlation between SASM precipitation and SSTAs in the eastern equatorial Pacific will weaken and even reverse to a positive one in the period 2070–2096 under the representative concentration pathway（RCP） scenario with strong external forcing（RCP8.5）, while the change of the correlation under moderate forcing（RCP4.5） still has great uncertainty.

Regional changes of the severities of meteorological droughts and floods in India

The most important climatological feature of the South Asian region is the occurrence of monsoons. With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of such climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with long-term above and below normal monsoon precipitation causing prolong meteorological droughts and floods in India. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from long-term trends for individual regions, long-term trends were also calculated for the Indian region as a whole. The results show that intra-region variability for monsoon precipitation is large and there are increasing numbers of meteorological summer droughts. Meteorological monsoon floods were found to have negative long-term trends everywhere except in the peninsular Indian region. The results overall suggest generic conclusions concerning the region-wide long-term trend of severity of monsoon droughts and floods in India and their spatial variability.

The Earliest Onset Areas and Mechanism of the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon

The multi-yearly averaged pentad meteorological fields at 850 hPa of theNCEP/NCAR reanalysis dada and the TBB fields of the Japan Meteorological Agency during 1980-1994 areanalyzed. It is found that if the pentad is taken as the time unit of the monsoon onset, then thetropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM) onsets earliest, simultaneously and abruptly over the wholearea in the Bay of Bengal (BOB), the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP), and the South China Sea (SCS), eastof 90°E, in the 27th to 28th pentads of a year (Pentads 3 to 4 in May), while it onsets later inthe India Peninsula (IP) and the Arabian Sea (AS), west of 90°E. The TASM bursts first at the southend of the IP in the 30th to 31st pentads near 10°N, and advances gradually northward to the wholearea, by the end of June. Analysis of the possible mechanism depicts that the rapid changes of thesurface sensible heat flux, air temperature, and pressure in spring and early summer in the middleto high latitudes of the East Asian continent between 100°E and 120°E are crucially responsiblefor the earliest onset of the TASM in the BOB to the SCS areas. It is their rapid changes thatinduce a continental depression to form and break through the high system of pressure originallylocated in the above continental areas. The low depression in turn introduces the southwesterly tocome into the BOB to the SCS areas, east of 90° E, and thus makes the SCS summer monsoon (SCSSM)burst out earliest in Asia. In the IP to the AS areas, west of 90° E, the surface sensible heatflux almost does not experience obvious change during April and May, which makes the tropical Indiansummer monsoon (TISM) onset later than the SCSSM by about a month. Therefore, it is concluded thatthe meridian of 90° E is the demarcation line between the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM, i.e.,the TISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM, including the SCSSM). Besides, the temporalrelations between the TASM onset and the seasonal variation of the South Asian high (SAH) arediscussed, too, and it is found that there are good relations between the monsoon onset time and theSAH center positions. When the SAH center advances to north of 20°N, the SCSSM onsets, and tonorth of 25° N, the TISM onsets at its south end. Comparison between the onset time such determinedand that with other methodologies shows fair consistency in the SCS area and some differences inthe IP area.

基于XRF岩芯连续扫描的藏南哲古错沉积物近4400年地球化学分布及环境演变

XRF岩芯连续扫描在近30年间被广泛用于获取不同地理环境的湖泊沉积序列元素分布及其指示的环境意义,特别是湖泊密集的“亚洲水塔”青藏高原。然而,XRF扫描数据的准确性受沉积岩芯物理属性的显著影响,可能导致记录信息的过度或错误解释。本研究基于青藏高原南部哲古错(ZGC)内近4400年以来由植物和泥沙混合沉积而成的2.16 m完整岩芯(ZGC21),利用XRF岩芯连续扫描获取其元素信号值和色度分布,结合含水量、粒度、烧失量等物理特征分析,表明ZGC岩芯层理清晰、定年精准、气候信息记录全面,是重建印度夏季风和青藏高原南部气候变化的最佳载体之一。稳定元素(Al、 K、 Fe、 Mn、 Rb、 Si、 Ti、 Zr)信号值分布均不能用于指示ZGC岩芯不同层理的碎屑物质输入比例,但Zr/Rb比值则可反映流域内物质输入的真实特征;Ca和Br元素信号值分布分别指示ZGC21岩芯的碳酸盐和有机质含量变化。基于可靠元素信号分布和AMS-14C精确定年,青藏高原南部在太阳辐射强度变化驱动下于4400~3500 a B. P.和850~80 a B. P.年间均处于寒冷气候环境中,低温不足以支撑湖内植被的生存,而在2750~1830 a B. P.和1320~850 a B. P.年间则相反。上述结果为XRF岩芯连续扫描数据的正确应用和准确解释提供科学示范,也为重建该地区过去4400年人地关系提供年代际尺度环境演变框架。