Relations of Water Vapor Transport from Indian Monsoon with That over East Asia and the Summer Rainfall in China

A diagnostic study is made to investigate the relationship between water vapor transport from Indian monsoon and that over East Asia in Northern summer. It is found that water vapor transport from Indian monsoon is inverse to that over East Asia. More (less) Indian monsoon water vapor transport corresponds to less (more) water vapor transport over East Asia and less (more) rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. The Indian summer monsoon water vapor transport is closely related to the intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high in its southwestern part. The stronger (weaker) the Indian summer monsoon water vapor transport, the weaker (stronger) the western Pacific subtropical high in its southwestern part, which leads to less (more) water vapor transport to East Asia, and thus less (more) rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. Analysis of the out-going longwave radiation anomalies suggests that the convective heating anomalies over the Indian Ocean may have significant impact not only on the Indian monsoon, but also on the East Asian monsoon.

Analysis of Indian Monsoon and Associated Low-Level Circulation in 1980 and 1981

In this paper, Indian monsoon of 1980 and 1981 is analysed based on the seasonal and half-month averaged data of 850 hPa of ECMWF analysis. The results show that Indian monsoon is related to Somali jet, the low-latitude easterlies and the mid-latitude westerlies over southern Indian Ocean, which are associated with the stationary wave of Southern Hemisphere. The forces affecting on the low-level flow are diagnosed, which display the relationship between Indian monsoon and the associated low-level flow.

Modelling of Indian Monsoon Rainfall Series by Univariate Box-Jenkins Type of Models

The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the original time series shows no modelable structure due to the presence of high interannual variability, a 3-point running filter is applied before exploring and fitting appropriate stochastic models. Out of several parsimonious models fitted, AR(3) is found to be most suitable. The usefulness of this fitted model is validted on an independent datum of 18 years and some skill has been noted. These models therefore can be used for low skill higher lead time forecasts of monsoon. Further the forecasts produced through such models can be combined with other forecasts to increase the skill of monsoon forecasts.

Sensitivity of the Indian Monsoon to Human Activities

In this paper the authors perform an extensive sensitivity analysis of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall to changes in parameters and boundary conditions which are influenced by human activities. For this study the authors use a box model of the Indian monsoon which reproduces key features of the observed monsoon dynamics such as the annual course of precipitation and the transitions between winter and summer regimes. Because of its transparency and computational efficiency, this model is highly suitable for exploring the effects of anthropogenic perturbations such as emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide, and land cover changes, on the Indian monsoon. Results of a systematic sensitivity analysis indicate that changes in those parameters which are related to emissions of greenhouse gases lead to an increase in Indian summer rainfall. In contrast, all parameters related to higher atmospheric aerosol concentrations lead to a decrease in Indian rainfall. Similarly, changes in parameters which can be related to forest conversion or desertifieation, act to decrease the summer precipitation. The results indicate that the sign of precipitation changes over India will be dependent on the direction and relative magnitude of different human perturbations.

One Geology:Hydrology of the Indian Monsoon for the Past 10000 Years

The Asian monsoon composed of the East Asian and Indian systems affects the livelihood of over 60% of the world’s population.The monsoon strongly impacts agriculture,transportation,health and tourism matters in the region,and natural and human-forced variations in the monsoon are extremely important.It is therefore surprising to acknowledge that we do

The Indian monsoonal influence on altitude effect of δ^(18)O in surface water on southeast Tibetan Plateau

The altitude effect of δ18O is essential for the study of the paleo-elevation reconstruction and possible to be solved through modern process studies. This study presents new δ18O results from southeast Tibetan Plateau along two transects, the Zayu transect and the Lhasa-Nyang transect, with δ18O data from June to September representative of monsoon period and δ18O data during the rest of the year of non-monsoon period. Altitude effect outweighs the longitude and latitude effects in determining regional δ18O variation spatially. Relevant δ18O data from previous studies in the nearby region have also been combined to comprehensively understand the influence of different moisture sources on δ18O from local scale to regional scale. The δ18O in surface water in the southeast Tibetan Plateau and its nearby regions influenced by the Indian summer monsoon shows that single dominant moisture source or simple moisture sources lead to smaller altitudinal lapse rate, whilst growing contributions from local convection to precipitation enlarge δ18O-altitude rate. It thereupon reveals the significance of the Indian summer monsoon to the altitude effect of δ18O in surface water, and the complicated effect of local convection or westerlies evolution to the variation of altitudinal lapse rate. Paleo-monsoon evolution therefore should be considered when altitude effect is applied to paleo-elevation reconstruction for the Tibetan Plateau.

On the Spatio-Temporal Variations of the Tropopause Height over India and Indian Summer Monsoon Activity

The spatio-temporal variation of the tropopause height (TH) over the Indian region (5°N-35°N, 70°E-95°E) has been studied using monthly mean TH data, for 22-year period, 1965 to 1986. The study revealed that the stations south of 20° showed maximum TH in April / May and minimum in September. This variation in TH has been attributed to the corresponding variation of average sea surface temperature (SST) over ± 20° latitudinal belt over Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Further the stations north of 20°N showed maximum in June and minimum in October/ November. This maximum in TH has primarily been attributed to the increased insolation and convection. Furthermore it is noticed that the anomaly of TH moved northwards during the period April to July.The interannual variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Activity (ISMA) has been studied in relation to all India mean TH (at 12 GMT) for six months April through September. The composites of mean TH for good and bad monsoon years showed that all India mean TH is statistically higher in good monsoon years than in bad monsoon years. The relationship between ISMA and all India mean May TH has been studied using the contingency table. The study suggested that the forecast of ISMA could be prepared using mean May TH.

Distributional patterns of anemophilous tree pollen indicating the pathways of Indian monsoon through QinghaieTibetan Plateau

The distribution pattern of vegetation on QinghaieTibetan Plateau is fundamentally influenced by the plateau climate, which is mainly controlled by Indian monsoon during summer. The long distance transportation of pollen（mostly anemophilous taxa） produced by trees on the plateau has been recorded by modern pollen samples in previous studies, and hypothesized to be a good indicator of monsoon dynamics.Here we use 270 surface pollen samples from QinghaieTibetan Plateau to test the distribution patterns of the anemophilous tree pollen. Meanwhile factors related to Indian monsoon affecting pollen transportation are simulated and analyzed. Results show that depositional patterns of anemophilous tree pollen, especially Abies, Pinus, Quercus and Betula are completely controlled by the pathways of Indian monsoon. This is reflected by climatic indicators of the atmospheric pressure pattern over JuneeJ ulye August, by the precipitation pattern over JuneeJulyeAugust and by the topographic feature of the plateau. The spatial interpolation of thin plate spline results also display two depositional centers（ca. 30°N, 95°E and 30°N, 105°E）of the anemophilous tree pollen. In contrast to previous conclusion that pollen distributional pattern is determined by mean annual precipitation, we argue that Indian monsoon is the essential controller because of the synchronization between timing of monsoon wind and timing of plants flowering. Our finding strongly suggests that distributional pattern of anemophilous tree pollen on the plateau is a good proxy of Indian monsoon.

Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon in Recent Decades

The analysis of 43 years of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and station observations reveals the connections between tropospheric temperature variations and the weakening of the Indian summer monsoon circulation. The Indian summer monsoon variation is strongly linked to tropospheric temperature over East Asia, showing significant positive correlations of mean tropospheric temperature with all-Indian summer rainfall and the monsoon circulation

Indian monsoon influences altitude effect of δ^(18)O in precipitation/river water on the Tibetan Plateau

The δ 18O variation in precipitation acquired from 28 stations within the network of Tibetan Observation and Research Platform(TORP)is studied, with the focus on the altitude effect of δ 18O in river water during monsoon precipitation in an effort to understand the monsoon influence on isotopic composition in annual river water. It is found that δ 18O in precipitation on the Plateau is influenced by different moisture sources, with significant Indian monsoon influence on δ 18O composition in plateau precipitation and river water. The δ 18O of water bodies in the monsoon domain is generally more depleted than that in the westerly domain, suggesting gradual rainout of southwesterly borne marine moisture in the course of long-distance transportation and lifting over the Himalayas. The lapse rate of δ 18O in river water with altitude is the largest during monsoon precipitation, due to the increased temperature vertical gradient over the southern Plateau region controlled by monsoon circulation. The combination of δ 18O in river water in monsoon (wet) and non-monsoon (dry) seasons shows a larger lapse rate than that in non-monsoon (dry) season alone. As the altitude effect of δ 18O in precipitation and river water on the Tibetan Plateau results from the combined effect of monsoon moisture supply and westerly moisture supply, the δ 18O composition and its altitude effect on the Plateau during monsoon seasons should be considered in the reconstruction of paleoelevation of the Tibetan Plateau.

Zonal propagation of kinetic energy and convection in the South China Sea and Indian monsoon regions in boreal summer

Zonal propagation of kinetic energy (KE) and convection in the South China Sea (SCS) and Indian summer monsoon areas are examined in present study. Results suggest that the SCS and Indian summer monsoon prevailed regions (5 —15°N) are dominated by the southwesterly wind, however, the disturbances of KE at 850 hPa and convection are observed mainly coming from the western Pacific Ocean (140—150°E), after passing through the SCS, and westward propagated into the Bay of Bengal (90—100°E). In the Indian summer monsoon domain, where the disturbances of KE are found mainly coming from the Arabian Sea (AS) and eastward propagated into the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, the SCS and the Indian summer mon- soon are quite different in zonal propagation of KE and convection. The SCS summer monsoon is mainly affected by the KE and convection coming from the tropical western Pacific. The Indian summer monsoon, however, can be partly influenced by the AS and the SCS summer monsoon. The analysis also suggests that the interaction region between the SCS and the Indian summer monsoon is around 90—95°E, rather than 105°E as proposed by earlier studies.

Paleogeography control of Indian monsoon intensification and expansion at 41 Ma

As a crucial part of the Asian monsoon stretching from tropical India to temperate East Asia, the Indian monsoon(IM) contributes predominant precipitation over Asian continent. However, our understanding of IM’s onset, development and the underlying driving mechanisms is limited. Increasing evidence indicates that the IM began in the Eocene or even the Paleocene and was unexceptionally linked to the early rise of the Tibetan Plateau(TP). These were challenged by the heterogeneous and diachronous uplift of the TP and all the reported records were confined to tropical zone under tropical monsoon driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) that is irrelevant to the TP. Therefore, reliable paleoclimatic records from the extra-tropical IM region is crucial to reveal how the tropical IM expanded to subtropical and temperate zones and what driving factors might be related to it. Here we present robust Eocene paleoenvironmental records from central Yunnan(~26°N) in subtropical East Asia. The multiproxy results of two sites demonstrate a consistent sudden switch from a dry environment in the early Eocene to a seasonally wet one at 41 Ma, suggesting a jump of the tropical IM to the southern subtropical zone at 41 Ma.The full collision of India with Asia, and the resulting changes in paleogeography at 41 Ma(closure of the Neotethys sea, retreat of the Paratethys seas, fast northward movement of the southern margin of the TP and rise of the central TP), aided by synchronous Antarctic cooling, might have worked together to drive the IM enhancement and northward expansion.

The Summer Monsoon Onset over the Tropical Eastern Indian Ocean: The Earliest Onset Process of the Asian Summer Monsoon

The onset process of the tropical eastern Indian Ocean （TEIO） summer monsoon （TEIOSM） and its relationship with the cross-equatorial flows are investigated via climatological analysis. Climatologically, results indicate that the earliest onset process of the Asian summer monsoon occurs over the TEIO at pentad 22 （April 15-20）. Unlike the abrupt onset of the South China Sea （SCS） summer monsoon, the TEIOSM onset process displays a stepwise advance. Moreover, a close relationship between the TEIOSM development and the northward push of the cross-equatorial flows over 80^-90~E is revealed. A difference vorticity center, together with the counterpart over the southern Indian Ocean, constitutes a pair of difference cyclonic vortices, which strengthens the southwesterly wind over the TEIO and the northerly wind to the west of the Indian Peninsula from the end of March to late May. Therefore, the occurrence of the southwesterly wind over the TEIO is earlier than its counterpart over the tropical western Indian Ocean, and the cross-equatorial flows emerge firstly over the TEIO rather than over the Somali area. The former increases in intensity during its northward propagation, which provides a precondition for the TEIOSM onset and its northward advance.

Paleoceanographical records under impact of the Indian monsoon from the Bengal Deep Sea Fan and Ninetyeast Ridge during the last 260 ka

The orbital and interior climatic cycles can be found both in the Bengal Deep Sea Fan and Ninetyeast Ridge, North Indian Ocean. The periodicity of the Quaternary glacio-eustacy by 100 ka gave a strong impact on the sedimentation in the fan area and the monsoon signals controlled by the obliquity and precession were easily picked up. This paper discusses the possible correlation between the environmental elements on the basis of the ETP phase wheels. A rapid change with short-periods develops during the past 60 ka in the region under study as well. The variability of paleoproductivity has a nonlinear response to the Indian summer monsoon. As contrasted to the Northwest Indian Ocean, here an abundance of Globigerina bulloides, a proxy to indicate upwelling current, does not imply so much a promotion of the summer monsoon as its decrease. The record from the ridge area shows in a longer-scale a climatic evolutionary feature corresponding to that of the fan area. A special and great event arising at around 165 kaBP and meaning a catastrophe for ecological environment is reported in this paper. It is also regarded as a result induced by the monsoon.

Contrasting the Indian and western North Pacific summer monsoons in terms of their intensity of interannual variability and biennial relationship with ENSO

The intensity of interannual variability(IIV)of the monsoon and monsoon–ENSO biennial relationship(MEBR)were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)and western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)during 1958–2018.Covariability of the IIV and MEBR were identified for the two monsoons.When the MEBR was strong(weak),the IIV of the monsoon was observed to be large(small).This rule applied to both the ISM and WNPSM.Out-ofphase relationships were found between the ISM and the WNPSM.When the IIV and MEBR of the ISM were strong(weak),those of the WNPSM tended to be weak(strong).During the period with a stronger(weaker)ENSO–Atlantic coupling after(before)the mid-1980 s,the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM(ISM)were observed to be stronger.The increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)may trigger the observed seesaw pattern of the ISM and WNPSM in terms of the IIV and MEBR multidecadal variability.The results imply that tropical Atlantic SST may need to be given more attention and consideration when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM.

The cold pool of the Bay of Bengal and its association with the break phase of the Indian summer monsoon

During the summer monsoon season, strong coastal upwelling occurs along the southwest coast of India and at the southern tip of India, which cools the surface temperature of the waters around these regions. The summer monsoon current carries the upwelled cold waters into the Bay of Bengal and forms the ‘cold pool of the Bay of Bengal', with its core south of Sri Lanka and over the southcentral Bay of Bengal. The present study focuses on the intrusion of these cold waters into the south of the Bay of Bengal, its interannual variability, and its association with the surface wind during the break phase of the summer monsoon, when strong westerly surface winds flow south of 10°N.The authors hypothesize that the enhanced cooling in the cold pool region during monsoon spells is associated with the strong westerly wind stress there during the break spells of the monsoon.Seven cases of long break monsoon spells that occurred during the nine years from 2001 to 2009 are analyzed, and the results confirm our hypothesis.

Monthly Forecast of Indian Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Based on NCEP’s Coupled Forecast System

The monthly forecast of Indian monsoon rainfall during June to September is investigated by using the hindcast data sets of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s operational coupled model (known as the Climate Forecast System) for 25 years from 1981 to 2005 with 15 ensemble members each. The ensemble mean monthly rainfall over land region of India from CFS with one month lead forecast is underestimated during June to September. With respect to the inter-annual variability of monthly rainfall it is seen that the only significant correlation coefficients (CCs) are found to be for June forecast with May initial condition and September rainfall with August initial conditions. The CFS has got lowest skill for the month of August followed by that of July. Considering the lower skill of monthly forecast based on the ensemble mean, all 15 ensemble members are used separately for the preparation of probability forecast and different probability scores like Brier Score (BS), Brier Skill Score (BSS), Accuracy, Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Threat Score (TS) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for all the three categories of forecasts (above normal, below normal and normal) have been calculated. In terms of the BS and BSS the skill of the monthly probability forecast in all the three categories are better than the climatology forecasts with positive BSS values except in case of normal forecast of June and July. The “TS”, “HSS” and other scores also provide useful probability forecast in case of CFS except the normal category of July forecast. Thus, it is seen that the monthly probability forecast based on NCEP CFS coupled model during the southwest monsoon season is very encouraging and is found to be very useful.

Diurnal Variation of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall at Indian Stations

The paper presents the patterns of rainfall behavior brought out by the diagrams depicting the diurnal variation of SW monsoon rainfall at selected indian stations. The stations in different geographical locations are found to exhibit different patterns of diurnal variation of rainfall. In general, coastal and island stations show enhanced rainfall from midnight to morning hours and below average rainfall during day time. Many inland stations show rainfall maximum towards afternoon/evening hours. Some hill stations show the same behavior as inland stations. However, at the heavy rainfall station of Cherrapunjee, the rainfall behavior is similar to that at the coastal stations. Possible physical mechanisms responsible for the diurnal variation of rainfall at stations under different categories, are briefly discussed. Harmonic analysis of hourly SW monsoon rainfall data of 33 stations show that for 19 stations, the first harmonic accounts for more than 50% of the variance of the rainfall series. These consist of (i) inland stations for which the maximum of the first harmonic is reached between 16 hours IST and midnight, and (n) coastal/island stations for which the maximum is seen between 03 and 07 hours IST. At most of the coastal and island stations, the first harmonic alone accounts for 75% orb more of the variance. For the heavy rainfall station of Cherrapunjee, the first harmonic which attains its maximum at 3.8 hours IST (-4.4 hours LT), is able to account for 96% of the variance of the rainfall series. It is hoped that the information contained in this paper about the pattern of diurnal modulation of monsoon rainfall may serve as background material to monsoon precipitation climatology.

Variation of Zonal Winds in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in Association with Deficient and Excess Indian Summer Monsoon Scenario

The Indian summer monsoon is one of the most dominant tropical circulation systems in the general circulation of the atmosphere. The country receives more than 80% of the annual rainfall during a short span of four months (June to September) of the southwest monsoon season. Variability in the quantum of rainfall during the monsoon season has profound impacts on water resources, power generation, agriculture, economics and ecosystems in the country. The inter annual variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) depends on atmospheric and oceanic conditions prevailed during the season. In this study we have made an attempt to understand the variation of the of zonal winds in the tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS) region during deficient and Excess rainfall years of Indian summer monsoon and its relation to Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). It is found that in the equatorial Upper Troposphere zonal winds have westerly anomalies during deficient rainfall year’s and easterly anomaly during excess rainfall years of Indian summer monsoon and opposite zonal wind anomaly is noted in the equatorial Lower Stratosphere during the deficient and excess rainfall years of Indian summer monsoon. It is also found that the June to September upper troposphere zonal winds averaged between 15°N and 15°S latitudes have a long-term trend during 1960 to 1998. Over this period the tropical easterlies and the tropical jet stream have weakened with time.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system

This study presents a model to forecast the Indian summer monsoon rainfall（ISMR）（June-September）based on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ISMR time series data sets are classified into two parts for modeling purposes, viz.,（1） training data set（1871-1960）, and（2） testing data set（1961-2014）.Statistical analyzes reflect the dynamic nature of the ISMR, which couldn＇t be predicted efficiently by statistical and mathematical based models. Therefore, this study suggests the usage of three techniques,viz., fuzzy set, entropy and artificial neural network（ANN）. Based on these techniques, a novel ISMR time series forecasting model is designed to deal with the dynamic nature of the ISMR. This model is verified and validated with training and testing data sets. Various statistical analyzes and comparison studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.