The reliability optimization process in earthquake engineering requires that the expected present value of the total cos<span style="color:black;font-family:Verdana;">t is mini</span><span sty...The reliability optimization process in earthquake engineering requires that the expected present value of the total cos<span style="color:black;font-family:Verdana;">t is mini</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mized, including the initial cost as well as the damage costs caused by earthquakes, which include indirect costs. One of these costs is concerned with how much society is willing to invest for preserving human life. Ethical principles, on which to base the assessment of this cost, are presented and discussed in this work. Individual and social values are analyzed. Finally, an optimal seismic design coefficient with the results obtained is calculated for a site with low seismicity.</span>展开更多
In the process of quantifying optimum seismic design parameters, the losses implying the failure of the system must be assessed. Intangibles such as human lives may lie among indirect losses. In this paper, we propose...In the process of quantifying optimum seismic design parameters, the losses implying the failure of the system must be assessed. Intangibles such as human lives may lie among indirect losses. In this paper, we propose a model to calculate the value of the investment that society should be willing to make for saving lives. In order to do this, we analyze both individual and social problems. However, special treatment is given to the individual problem where the value of the life of a human being is inferred by what the person should be willing to pay or willing to accept to reduce the risk of dying. Due to the use of utility curves in the calculation of this kind of intangible, we pay special attention to shape and requirement conditions of these curves. We also pay attention when personal impact and legacies or bequests are considered in utility curves. The results are shown through some applications, especially in the computation of optimum seismic design coefficients at a low seismicity site.展开更多
[Objective] The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic loss caused by Zhouqu debris flow. [Method] After the large debris flows happened on August 7, 2010 in Zhouqu, Gansu Province, we collected data at the fi...[Objective] The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic loss caused by Zhouqu debris flow. [Method] After the large debris flows happened on August 7, 2010 in Zhouqu, Gansu Province, we collected data at the first time after the disaster, and then built an assessment model to estimate the potential economic losses. [Result] The total loss reached 16.57×10^2 million Yuan, in which indirect economic loss was up to 2.42×10^2 million yaun while the actual direct economic loss was around 14.15×10^2 million Yuan. [Conclusion] The proportional coefficient method is a rapid and efficient method for evaluating the indirect loss caused by disasters.展开更多
A variant of the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO) has been developed to explore the sensitivity of the London economy to loss of production capacity in sectors affected by climate change related damage. The...A variant of the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO) has been developed to explore the sensitivity of the London economy to loss of production capacity in sectors affected by climate change related damage. The model is designed for linking to an Event Accounting Matrix (EAM) produced by climate and engineering teams, and then follow this damage through direct and indirect losses in the economy during a recovery process that is either demand-led (in which recovery of production capacity takes place only as demand recovers) or investment-led (where recovery of production capacity can precede demand). Outputs from the model are used to assess the relative vulnerability of London’s economy to production capacity (Capital stock) loss in each of the 42 economic sectors, for purposes of identifying where to most effectively allocate resources to climate change adaptation strategies or to recovery operations when used in conjunction with an EAM. Measures of impact related to GDP loss, recovery time and the ratio of indirect to direct losses are developed for these scenarios. Results show that indirect losses are a significant component of total losses, with a multiplier of between 1.3 and 2 depending on the scale of initial damage.展开更多
文摘The reliability optimization process in earthquake engineering requires that the expected present value of the total cos<span style="color:black;font-family:Verdana;">t is mini</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mized, including the initial cost as well as the damage costs caused by earthquakes, which include indirect costs. One of these costs is concerned with how much society is willing to invest for preserving human life. Ethical principles, on which to base the assessment of this cost, are presented and discussed in this work. Individual and social values are analyzed. Finally, an optimal seismic design coefficient with the results obtained is calculated for a site with low seismicity.</span>
文摘In the process of quantifying optimum seismic design parameters, the losses implying the failure of the system must be assessed. Intangibles such as human lives may lie among indirect losses. In this paper, we propose a model to calculate the value of the investment that society should be willing to make for saving lives. In order to do this, we analyze both individual and social problems. However, special treatment is given to the individual problem where the value of the life of a human being is inferred by what the person should be willing to pay or willing to accept to reduce the risk of dying. Due to the use of utility curves in the calculation of this kind of intangible, we pay special attention to shape and requirement conditions of these curves. We also pay attention when personal impact and legacies or bequests are considered in utility curves. The results are shown through some applications, especially in the computation of optimum seismic design coefficients at a low seismicity site.
基金Supported by National Key Technology Research and Development Program(2008BAK50B06)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic loss caused by Zhouqu debris flow. [Method] After the large debris flows happened on August 7, 2010 in Zhouqu, Gansu Province, we collected data at the first time after the disaster, and then built an assessment model to estimate the potential economic losses. [Result] The total loss reached 16.57×10^2 million Yuan, in which indirect economic loss was up to 2.42×10^2 million yaun while the actual direct economic loss was around 14.15×10^2 million Yuan. [Conclusion] The proportional coefficient method is a rapid and efficient method for evaluating the indirect loss caused by disasters.
文摘A variant of the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO) has been developed to explore the sensitivity of the London economy to loss of production capacity in sectors affected by climate change related damage. The model is designed for linking to an Event Accounting Matrix (EAM) produced by climate and engineering teams, and then follow this damage through direct and indirect losses in the economy during a recovery process that is either demand-led (in which recovery of production capacity takes place only as demand recovers) or investment-led (where recovery of production capacity can precede demand). Outputs from the model are used to assess the relative vulnerability of London’s economy to production capacity (Capital stock) loss in each of the 42 economic sectors, for purposes of identifying where to most effectively allocate resources to climate change adaptation strategies or to recovery operations when used in conjunction with an EAM. Measures of impact related to GDP loss, recovery time and the ratio of indirect to direct losses are developed for these scenarios. Results show that indirect losses are a significant component of total losses, with a multiplier of between 1.3 and 2 depending on the scale of initial damage.
