Induced Earthquake Monitoring of the Three Gorges Reservoir

The Three Gorges Project(TGP) on the Yangtze River(YR) is the largest water power station in the world;it is now attracting the worldwide attention. Possessing comprehensive utilization benefits mainly for flood control,power generation and navigation improvement,TGP will be a vital and backbone project in harnessing and developing of the YR. TGP has been commenced in 1993,the main channel of Yangtze was diverted on Nov.8th,1997 and whole project was completed in 2009. The Three Gorges(TG) reservoir has been formed since June 2003 and impounded to 175 m on Oct.26th,2010. The reservoir has a total length of 660 km and an average width of 1.0-1.5 km,with a total waters area of 1048 km2. In pace with the raised pool level,the enlargedstorage,the probability of reservoir earthquake would be enlarged. According to the magnitude records of historical maximum earthquake and properly weighted,defined the maximum reliable earthquake of TG reservoir would be ML6 magnitude,existed the probability of ML 5.0-5.8 induced earthquake around the Xiannvshan and Jiuwanxi fault zone(18 km upstream of the dam) . However,the highest intensity around the dam site would not exceed Degree VI,whereas the main structures of TGP were designed with an anti-seismic intensity of Degree VII,hence the reservoir induced earthquake would not form direct threat to the main structures of TGP. After the impoundment and operation of TG reservoir,the frequency and intensity of earthquake has been increased in some extent,yet the earthquake activities at TG region still kept in an original weak earthquake activities status. We should strengthen the TG reservoir induced earthquake monitoring and forecast,prevent the earthquake and geological calamity,ensure the safety of dam construction and operation,form the harmonious society as well as guarantee the long term security. This paper explained the mechanism,kinds,causes,development and calamities of the earthquakes in the world,collected a lot of TGP,China and World's earthquake and geology materials. Such as 105 year(Jan.1906-June2011) earthquake records in the world(Tab.1) ,13 main reservoir induced earthquake records in China(Tab. 2) ,19 main reservoir induced earthquake records in the world(Tab.3) ,14 year(1996-2009) reservoir earthquake monitoring records in TGP(Tab.4) . Analyzed the cause,calamities of the main earthquakes as well as its alarm and forecast. May it provide reference for readers and beg your guide.

Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology.As for the intense actual demand,the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management.This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects:earthquake occurrence probability,maximum expected magnitude forecasting,seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems.In terms of earthquake occurrence probability,we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index(SI)and hydro-mechanism nucleation.Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid,power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters.For seismic risk analysis,we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model.Furthermore,this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir,critical physical process of runaway rupture,complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect.This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production,seismic hazard mitigation,emergency management and scientific research as a reference.

Experiment on Hydraulic Fracturing in Rock and Induced Earthquake

Experiment on rock hydraulic fracturing strength under different confining pressures was conducted on a series of test specimens with various pre-cracks prepared from 7 types of rock. Combining the data of an actual reservoir-induced earthquake with the experimental results of the contemporary tectonic stress field according to the theory of rock strength and the principle and method of rock fracture mechanics, the authors tentatively investigated the earthquakes induced by pore-water pressure in rock and obtained the initial results as follows: （1） One type of induced earthquake may occur in the case of larger tectonic stress on such weak planes that strike in similar orientation of principle tectonic compressional stress in the shallows of the rock mass; the pore-water pressure σp may generate tensile fracture on them and induce small earthquakes; （2） Two types of induced earthquake may occur in the case of larger tectonic stress, i.e.,① on such weakness planes that strike in similar orientation of principle tectonic compressional stress, σ1, in the shallows of the rockmass, the pore-water pressure, σp, may generate tensile fracture on them and induce small earthquakes; ② When the tectonic stress approximates the shear strength of the fracture, the pore-water pressure σp may reduce the normal stress, σn, on the fracture face causing failure of the originally stable fracture, producing gliding fracture and thus inducing an earthquake. σp may also increase the fracture depth, leading to an induced earthquake with the magnitude larger than the previous potential magnitude; （3） There is a depth limit for each type of rock mass, and no induced earthquake will occur beyond this limit.

Determination of reservoir induced earthquake using support vector machine and gaussian process regression

The prediction of magnitude （M） of reservoir induced earthquake is an important task in earthquake engineering. In this article, we employ a Support Vector Machine （SVM） and Gaussian Process Regression （GPR） for prediction of reservoir induced earthquake M based on reservoir parameters. Comprehensive parameter （E） and maximum reservoir depth] （H） are considered as inputs to the SVM and GPR. We give an equation for determination oil reservoir induced earthquake M. The developed SVM and GPR have been compared with] the Artificial Neural Network （ANN） method. The results show that the developed SVM and] GPR are efficient tools for prediction of reservoir induced earthquake M. /

Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources

It has long been known that human activities such as waste fluid disposal and reservoir impoundment may cause earthquakes. Recently, anthropogenic activities to tackle the increasing energy demand and to address climate change issues are also reported to induce earthquakes. These activities have a common attribute in that fluids are injected and extracted underground and induce spatiotemporal changes of pore pressure and stress, which may cause slip on faults. Induced earthquakes not only pose significant impacts on seismic hazard assessment and preparation, but also raise the question to the society as how to balance the economic needs of resources development and the public's concerns about potential environmental impacts. Here we review the observations of fluid-injection/extraction induced earthquakes, ground deformation associated with these activities, and their physical mechanisms. Furthermore, we discuss the influences of induced earthquakes on seismic hazard models, regulatory policies on these anthropogenic activities, and current development of academic, industrial and government initiatives and collaborations in order to understand this intriguing phenomenon and address associated challenges.

Spatio-temporal variations of shallow seismic velocity changes in Salton Sea Geothermal Field,California in response to large regional earthquakes and long-term geothermal activities

We measure spatio-temporal variations of seismic velocity changes in Salton Sea Geothermal Field,California based on cross correlations of daily seismic traces recorded by a borehole seismic network from December 2007 to January 2014.We find clear co-seismic velocity reductions during the 2010 M 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah,Mexico earthquake at~100 km further south,followed by long-term recoveries.The co-seismic reductions are larger with longer post-seismic recoveries in higher frequency bands,indicating that material damage and healing process mostly occurred in the shallow depth.In addition,the co-seismic velocity reductions are larger for ray paths outside the active fluid injection/extraction regions.The ray paths inside injection/extraction regions are associated with smaller co-seismic reductions,but subtle long-term velocity increases.We also build 3D transient water flow models based on monthly injection/extraction rates,and find correlations between several water flow parameters and co-seismic velocity reductions.We interpret the relative lack of co-seismic velocity changes within the geothermal region as unclogging of fracture network due to persistent fluid flows of geothermal production.The long-term velocity increase is likely associated with the ground water depletion and subsidence due to net production.

Earthquakes induced by deep penetrating bombing

The data of M≥5 earthquakes occurred in one year before and after 4 deep penetrating bombs in the region within 500 km and 1 000 km from the shooting site are presented. The 4 bombs are those happened in 1999 Kosovo of Yugoslavia, the 1991 Baghdad of Iraq, the 2001 Tora Bora of Afghanistan, and the 2003 Kirkuk of Iraq, respec-tively. The data indicate that the deep penetrating bombs may have remotely triggered some earthquakes. The deep penetrating bombs in seismically active regions should be forbidden.

Research of the Activity of Earthquakes Induced by Water Injection of Salt Mining in Changning County,Sichuan Province

According to information from on-the-spot investigations, the tectonics of salt mining areas and digital seismic records, we studied the activity of earthquakes induced by water pumping in and out of the salt mines in Shuanghe town, Changning county, Sichuan Province. The study found that the rates of water injection and extraction in the Shuanghe salt mining region were evenly matched before April 2006 and earthquake activity was stable. On the other hand, shallow small and moderate earthquake numbers increased sharply after the water injection rate became much larger than the water extraction rate. Large injection over a long time may causes the permeation of water through pre-existing small fractures and micro-cracks in the Changning anticlinal and accelerate the rupture of micro tectonic formations in nearby regions, inducing small earthquake swarm activity. The Q value calculated by using digital earthquake records indicates a relatively inhomogeneous medium in this area. The results of the accurate location of small earthquakes show that sources are relatively shallow and are concentrated at a depth of 2km to 3km. Focal mechanism solutions reveal a normal dip-slip character of shallow earthquakes. All of these show certain characteristics of earthquake activity induced by water injection.

Development of a new high resolution waveform migration location method and its applications to induced seismicity

Locating seismic events is a central task for earthquake monitoring.Compared to arrival-based location methods,waveformbased location methods do not require picking phase arrivals and are more suitable for locating seismic events with noisy waveforms.Among waveform-based location methods,one approach is to stack different attributes of P and S waveforms around arrival times corresponding to potential event locations and origin times,and the maximum stacking values are assumed to indicate the correct event location and origin time.In this study,to obtain a high-resolution location image,we improve the waveform-based location method by applying a hybrid multiplicative imaging condition to characteristic functions of seismic waveforms.In our new stacking method,stations are divided into groups;characteristic functions of seismic waveforms recorded at stations in the same group are summed,and then multiplied among groups.We find that this approach can largely eliminate the cumulative effects of noise in the summation process and thus improve the resolution of location images.We test the new method and compare it to three other stacking methods,using both synthetic and real datasets that are related to induced seismicity occurring in petroleum/gas production.The test results confirm that the new stacking method can provide higher-resolution location images than those derived from currently used methods.

The April 24, 2013 Changning M_s4.8 earthquake: a felt earthquake that occurred in Paleozoic sediment

The dense broadband seismic network provides more high-quality waveform that is helpful to improve constraint focal depth of shallow earthquake. Many shal- low earthquakes occurring in sediment were regarded as induced events. In Sichuan basin, gas industry and salt mining are dependent on fluid injection technique that triggers microseismicity. We method with regional records adopted waveform inversion to obtain focal mechanism of an Ms4.8 earthquake at Changning. The result suggested that the Changning earthquake occurred at a ESE thrust fault, and its focal depth was about 3 km. The depth phases including teleseismic pP phase and regional sPL phase shows that the focal depth is about 2 km. The strong, short- period surface wave suggests that this event is a very shallow earthquake. The amplitude ratio between Rayleigh wave and direct S wave was also used to estimate the source depth of the mainshock. The focal depth （2-4 km） is far less than the depth of the sedimentary layer thickness （6-8 km） in epicentral region. It is close to the depth of fluid injection of salt mining, which may imply that this event was triggered by the industrial activity.

Topographic seismic effects and avalanche hazard:A case study of Mount Siella(L’Aquila,Central Italy)

In mountainous areas,snow avalanches could be triggered by the shaking produced by earthquakes.The forces induced by the earthquake can cause an irregular increase of shear strength load down the slope,for the presence of complex surface and buried morphologies.Topographic irregularities generate maximum effects of waves amplification linked to wavelengths comparable to the horizontal dimension of the topographic feature.For this reason,the selected time-histories represent an appropriate input for the two-dimensional numerical response analyses when a dynamic phenomenon produce the resonant motion of a whole mountain.This represents an important earthquake-induced hazard in snow-covered mountain areas with high probability of seismic events.Some valleys are located in regions with scare ground motion data and investments on infrastructures are not always accompanied by adequate protection against earthquake-induced avalanches.The paper points out a simple deterministic approach for selecting a set of real accelerograms applied to a real case of Siella Mountain(Central Italy)where a large avalanche destroying a tourist facility of Rigopiano resort on 18 January 2017.The selected time histories were used as input for the two-dimensional numerical model of the subsoil to evaluate the topographic seismic amplification in ridge and compare it with the results of other authors.These methods suggest that morphology-related inertial effects should be considered as an overload action on snow layers when controlling multi-hazard studies and spatial planning.

Hydraulic Fracturing, Cumulative Development and Earthquakes in the Peace River Region of British Columbia, Canada

Unconventional petroleum development involving large volume fluid injection into horizontal well bores, referred to as hydraulic fracturing (HF, or fracking), began in the Montney Trend of northeast British Columbia, Canada, in 2005, quickly initiating earthquakes. Earthquake frequency increased substantially in the Montney by 2008, in relation to the number of wells fracked and the volume of injected frack water. A spatiotemporal filter was used to associate earthquakes with HF wells. A total of 439 earthquakes (M 1.0 - 4.6 (NRCAN catalogue) during 2013-2019 have close association with HF activity, of which 77% are associated with three operators. Fifteen percent of HF wells in the Montney are associated with these earthquakes, while 1.7% of HF wells are associated with M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes. There are strong linear relationships between the maximum earthquake magnitude each year and the annual volume of injected frack fluid. M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes are associated with large cumulative frack water volumes for antecedent time periods of 1 - 3 years, often with fluid injection by multiple operators. Eighty-seven percent of the Montney M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have associated HF triggering events, but a few are sufficiently distant to be ambiguous. Distances from the induced earthquake epicentres indicate a variety of causal mechanisms are involved. It is concluded that ~60% - 70% of M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes are induced by hydraulic fracturing. HF-induced earthquakes can be considered in part related to the cumulative development density from multiple proximal operators and cumulative antecedent fluid injection over periods ranging from a few months to a few years. It is probable that induced earthquakes of M > 5 will occur in the future. There are significant public safety and infrastructure risks associated with future HF-induced earthquakes in the Peace River area. To carry out HF operations effectively and safely, potentially destructive earthquakes must be avoided or mitigated. The Traffic Light Protocol mitigation system used in British Columbia appears unlikely to prevent large magnitude earthquakes. Risk avoidance therefore becomes important and could include the establishment of frack-free zones proximal to populations and critical infrastructure.

Study on Precise Location and Structure of Earthquakes in the Shanxi Reservoir,Zhejiang Province

The Shanxi reservoir earthquakes are significant seismic events in southern Zhejiang Province in recent years, an area with fewer and weaker earthquakes. The seismicity showed an intermittent characteristic and group distribution. The epicenters located by the seismic network did not show a predominant direction and the seismogenic structure is not clear. In the study, the nonlinear imaginary wave travel time equation was linearized and solved, and the source position, initial imaginary velocity and travel time residuals were obtained. Then by doubling the standard deviation as time residuals, the maximum error generated from longitude, latitude, depth and imaginary velocity was calculated. The genetic population was structured using the maximum error and the end result of earthquake location was obtained by genetic algorithm. The result of relocation of the Shanxi reservoir earthquakes with this method shows that earthquakes are largely concentrated on a near-vertical, northwest oriented fault plane, and the included angles between the normal of the plane and the due north, due east and vertical directions are 46~, 44~, and 87~, respectively. The result is in agreement with that of comprehensive fault plane solutions of small earthquakes. The average depth of the earthquakes was 4.7km, the maximum depth 9.5kin, and the minimum depth 1.7km. The epicenters showed a northwestward narrow banded distribution, and the focal depth increased along the northwest direction. There was a discontinuous seismic gap of about 3.5km long at the northwest end of the strip. The characteristics of source parameters obtained by using the Borun model were not significantly different from that of tectonic earthquakes. Seismic stress drop was about 0.33MPa, and the average stress drop was 0.88MPa. According to the stress drop＇ spatial distribution, the seismic discontinuities segment at the northwest end of the strip is in a low stress drop zone.

Fine Velocity Structure and Relocation of the 2010 M_L 5.1 Earthquake Sequence in the Rongchang Gas Field

Based on data collected from a temporal seismic network, and in addition to the data from some nearby permanent stations, we investigate the velocity structure and seismicity in the Rongchang gas field, where significant injection-induced seismicity has been identified. First, we use receiver functions from distant earthquakes to invert detailed 1-D velocity structures beneath typical stations. Then, we use the double-difference hypocenter location method to re-locate earthquakes of the 2010 MLS. 1 earthquake sequence that occurred in the region. The re-located hypocenters show that the 2010 MLS. 1 earthquake sequence was distributed in a small area surrounding major injection wells and clustered mostly along pre-existing faults. Major earthquakes show a focal depth less than 5km with a dominant depth of -2km, a depth of major reservoirs and injection wells. We thus conclude that the 2010 ML 5. 1 earthquake sequence might have been induced by the deep well injection of unwanted water at a depth - 3km in the Rongchang gas field.

Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard mapping at national-scale in Australia using deep learning techniques

Australia is a relatively stable continental region but not tectonically inert,having geological conditions that are susceptible to liquefaction when subjected to earthquake ground motion.Liquefaction hazard assessment for Australia was conducted because no Australian liquefaction maps that are based on modern Al techniques are currently available.In this study,several conditioning factors including Shear wave velocity(Vs30),clay content,soil water content,soil bulk density,soil thickness,soil pH,distance from river,slope and elevation were considered to estimate the liquefaction potential index(LPI).By considering the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment(PSHA)technique,peak ground acceleration(PGA)was derived for 50 yrs period(500 and 2500 yrs return period)in Australia.Firstly,liquefaction hazard index(LHI)(effects based on the size and depth of the liquefiable areas)was estimated by considering the LPI along with the 2%and 10%exceedance probability of earthquake hazard.Secondly,ground acceleration data from the Geoscience Australia projecting 2%and 10%exceedance rate of PGA for 50 yrs were used in this study to produce earthquake induced soil liquefaction hazard maps.Thirdly,deep neural net-works(DNNs)were also exerted to estimate liquefaction hazard that can be reported as liquefaction hazard base maps for Australia with an accuracy of 94%and 93%,respectively.As per the results,very-high liquefaction hazard can be observed in Western and Southern Australia including some parts of Victoria.This research is the first ever country-scale study to be considered for soil liquefaction hazard in Australia using geospatial information in association with PSHA and deep learning techniques.This study used an earthquake design magnitude threshold of Mw 6 using the source model characterization.The resulting maps present the earthquake-triggered liquefaction hazard and are intending to establish a conceptual structure to guide more detailed investigations as may be required in the future.The limitations of deep learning models are complex and require huge data,knowledge on topology,parameters,and training method whereas PSHA follows few assumptions.The advantages deal with the reusability of model codes and its transferability to other similar study areas.This research aims to support stakeholders'on decision making for infrastructure investment,emergency planning and prioritisation of post-earthquake reconstruction projects.

全球海啸相关研究进展综述

With the advancement of the global economy,the coastal region has become heavily developed and densely populated and suffers significant damage potential considering various natural disasters,including tsunamis,as indicated by several catastrophic tsunami disasters in the 21st century.This study reviews the up-to-date tsunami research from two different viewpoints:tsunamis caused by different generation mechanisms and tsunami research applying different research approaches.For the first issue,earthquake-induced,landslide-induced,volcano eruption-induced,and meteorological tsunamis are individually reviewed,and the characteristics of each tsunami research are specified.Regarding the second issue,tsunami research using post-tsunami field surveys,numerical simulations,and laboratory experiments are discussed individually.Research outcomes from each approach are then summarized.With the extending and deepening of the understanding of tsunamis and their inherent physical insights,highly effective and precise tsunami early warning systems and countermeasures are expected for the relevant disaster protection and mitigation efforts in the coastal region.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Three Gorges Project

Seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismieity before impoundment and that the epicenters were concentrated in the east and west sides of the Zigui Basin, most of which were natural tectonic earth- quakes. After impoundment, the seismic activity shifted to the segment between Badong and Zigui along the Yangtze River, mainly within 5 km of the reservoir bank. The seismogenesis was categorized into four types： Karst collapse earthquakes, earthquakes caused by Karst gas explosion, mining tunnel collapse earthquakes, and rock （terrane） slip earthquakes, all of which are related to the lithology, structure, and tectonics of near- surface geological bodies of the area. Compared with the seismicity before impoundment, the seismic frequency increase was remarkable, with most of the magnitudes below Ms2.0. Therefore, the intensity of the earth- quakes remained at a low level. On November 22, 2008, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded since impoundment, occurred in Quyuan Town, Zigui County. The intensity and PGA of reservoir-in- duced earthquakes are higher than those of tectonic earthquakes with equal magnitude, but the peak intensity of reservoir-induced earthquakes is not likely to go beyond that of the estimated range from earlier studies.

A proposed classification of the Earth’s crustal areas by the level of geodynamic threat

It is accepted as a well-known fact that in different places on the Earth’s crust,a similar anthropogenic impact causes a dissimilar response.Seismic zoning maps are not designed to predict such geodynamic hazards as rock bursts,induced earthquakes,reactivation of tectonic faults,etc.,and therefore require careful adjustments in places of intense impact on the subsurface strata.In this regard,we consider the classification of the Earth’s crustal areas according to the degree of geodynamic hazard,i.e.its potential geodynamic response to anthropogenic intervention.This classification is based on the concept that there exists a critically stressed layer within the Earth’s crust.It is believed that such a critically stressed layer within the Earth’s crust extends from the Earth’s surface to a certain depth,and each point depends on the nature of the interaction between crustal blocks of different hierarchical levels.From this perspective,anthropogenic impact,such as mining operations,represents a direct impact upon the critically stressed zone.We recognize the hypothesis that the thicker the critical stressed rock layer,the stronger the response might be to anthropogenic intervention,as it has more accumulated energy.Four categories of geodynamic threat have been found and mapped.To verify this classification,the manifestations of the geodynamic hazards were studied.The intensity of geodynamic hazard increased from the first area to the fourth area.The phenomenon of large induced seismic events with hypocenters at great depths is explained on the basis of this theory,and could be associated with anthropogenic impacts from the surface directly on the regional zone of the critically stressed rock massif.The approach can be used to assess the geodynamic consequences of human exposure to the Earth’s crust.

Research and Practice on the Crustal Deformation Mobile Monitoring Network Layout in the Hydropower Station Reservoir Area

According to the construction project of the crustal deformation mobile monitoring network in the cascade hydropower stations built in the lower reaches of Jinsha River,this paper analyzes the design ideas and layout principles of crustal deformation mobile monitoring used in the monitoring of reservoir induced earthquakes. This paper introduces three types of monitoring networks used in the Xiluodu reservoir and Xiangjiaba reservoir, as well as the work already undertaken,in order to provide a kind of reference for the related engineering construction and comprehensive monitoring of reservoir induced earthquakes.

Source characteristics of the mainshock and aftershocks of the 2019 Changning earthquake sequence:Implications for fluid effects

The 2019 M_(S)6.0 Changning earthquake occurred in the tectonically stable Sichuan Basin,where the epicenter and its adjacent areas are important shale gas and salt mine production fields,resulting in hot debates on whether the seismogenic mechanism of the 2019 Changning earthquake is related to human activities.As source characteristics and fluid pressure can provide important constraints on whether an earthquake is induced,weinvestigate the seismogenic mechanisms of the mainshock and 9 MW≥4.0 aftershocks.In overall,the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks are characterized by relatively shallow focal depths(1‒4 km)and significant non-double-couple(non-DC)components.However,the mainshock and the aftershocks differ in two aspects:(1)the compensated-linear-vector-dipole components dominate the non-DC components of the mainshock,whereas the isotropic components dominate the most aftershocks;(2)the fluid overpressure of the mainshock is over 30 MPa,whereas the fluid overpressure of the most aftershocks is less than 10 MPa.Thus,we propose that the mainshock is triggered by weakened fault strength with long-term fluid injection,and that its large non-DC components are associated withcomplex rupture processes.Comparatively,the aftershocks may be triggered by postseismic stress transfer by combining the Coulomb failure stress changes in the poroelastic medium.Our results highlight the possible role of fluid in the occurrence of the Changning earthquake sequence.