Economic impacts of the Natural Forest Protection Program in Yunnan Province, China:an input-output analysis

The paper assesses the economic impacts of the natural forest protection program (NFPP) on the economy of Yunnan Province, China, in terms of gross output, value added, employment, and household income. An input-output model is developed to estimate NFPP's economic impacts by means of backward linkages in the forestry sector and logging and haulage sector. It is found that the NFPP has positive impacts on gross output, value added and household income in the initial year, but has significantly negative impacts on the regional economy in the following years as the investment decreases.

Environmental input-output model and its analysis with a focus on the solid waste management sectors

An environmental input output model (EIOM) was introduced to the regional solid waste management sectors, which can reflect the direct and indirect relations between the environment and the regional economy development. Some details about how to use the EIOM was discussed. The EIOM was applied to the Changsha City in China. The example results indicate that much useful information related to the environment and the regional economy development can be gained from the solution of the EIOM. Thus, the EIOM can be used as a useful tool for the sustainable development planning including the solid waste management sectors.

Input-output Efficiency of Elements of Urban Construction Land in Beijing: Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Jurisdiction

Based on the Data Envelopment Analysis method,and by using CCR and BCC model,Super Efficiency model and Malmquist model guided by input efficiency,the input-output efficiency of elements of urban construction land in different jurisdictions of Beijing from 2005 to 2015 was studied.The results showed that there were obvious differences between input-output efficiency of elements of urban construction land in different jurisdictions of Beijing,among which the efficiency of the core area of capital,Yanqing District,Fangshan District and Huairou District was relatively high,while the efficiency of Daxing District,Fengtai District and Miyun District was relatively low.There was no obvious correlation between efficiency differentiation and location factors,which is mainly caused by whether the land use in each jurisdiction has scale effect,whether the technology is improved,whether the input is redundant and whether the output is insufficient.For the jurisdiction of inefficient land use,we should strengthen the consciousness of intensive land use,improve the technical level,appropriately reduce the redundancy of input elements,and pay attention to the output of social and ecological benefits.

基于IO-SDA法的2020~2060年中国行业CO_(2)排放预测与分析

采用IO-SDA法测算2017~2020年CO_(2)排放,后结合国内权威预测报告,利用RAS法推导2025~2060年投入产出表和各行业能源消费数据,利用IO-SDA法定量评价各驱动因素在2020~2060年对CO_(2)排放总量和各行业CO_(2)排放量变化的贡献.结果表明:2020~2060年中国行业CO_(2)排放总量呈现先增后降的趋势,2030年左右达峰,后经历平台期,2035年开始快速减排,2050年后减排速度变慢;CO_(2)排放增长的驱动因素为最终需求规模,最主要的促降因素为碳排放强度;投入产出结构和最终需求结构只在个别时期促进CO_(2)排放增长,总体上对CO_(2)减排有积极作用,但作用有限,且伴随着经济结构趋于稳定,这两者的作用逐渐削弱;CO_(2)排放总量和4项因素的变化幅度在达峰平台期、快速减排期与全面中和期3个阶段由小变大再变小;从行业角度看,电力等公共品生产和供应业、金属产品制造业、交通运输仓储和邮政业、化学工业是CO_(2)减排的主要动力.为有效实现CO_(2)减排目标,政府实施CO_(2)减排政策的过程中,应在继续充分发挥碳排放强度积极效应的同时,更加注重释放重点行业技术创新、最终需求结构优化对CO_(2)减排的积极作用.

基于模糊DEMATEL-超效率DEA的可再生能源发电技术综合效益评估方法

“双碳”目标下,各类可再生能源发电技术发展迅速,综合权衡不同可再生能源发电方案的综合效益对可再生能源的优化设计具有重要意义。综合考虑经济效益、环境效益、能源效益和社会效益4个层面,提出了一种基于模糊决策试验和评价实验(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)与超效率数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis,DEA)模型的可再生能源发电技术综合效益评估方法。该方法分为投入-产出指标体系构建和综合评估2个阶段。首先,利用三角直觉模糊数处理模糊评价信息,将其与DEMATEL相结合量化各指标之间相互影响关系,基于指标间逻辑分析结果建立投入-产出评估指标体系。然后,基于超效率DEA模型对各可再生能源发电方案进行评估排序,结合投入冗余和产出不足分析结果给出各方案的针对性改善建议,以期为进一步选择和确定可再生能源产业发展战略提供参考。最后以某省10类可再生能源发电单元为研究对象,基于所提研究方法进行综合评估和分析,并与多准则妥协解排序法和熵权法进行对比分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。

A process-level hierarchical structural decomposition analysis (SDA) of energy consumption in an integrated steel plant

A hierarchical structural decomposition analysis(SDA) model has been developed based on process-level input-output(I-O) tables to analyze the drivers of energy consumption changes in an integrated steel plant during 2011-2013. By combining the principle of hierarchical decomposition into D&L method, a hierarchical decomposition model for multilevel SDA is obtained. The developed hierarchical IO-SDA model would provide consistent results and need less computation effort compared with the traditional SDA model. The decomposition results of the steel plant suggest that the technology improvement and reduced steel final demand are two major reasons for declined total energy consumption. The technical improvements of blast furnaces, basic oxygen furnaces, the power plant and the by-products utilization level have contributed mostly in reducing energy consumption. A major retrofit of ancillary process units and solving fuel substitution problem in the sinter plant and blast furnace are important for further energy saving. Besides the empirical results, this work also discussed that why and how hierarchical SDA can be applied in a process-level decomposition analysis of aggregated indicators.

生态-经济型投入产出表的构建与应用——以北京市为例

随着中国加强生态环境建设投资,生态相关产业的兴起被视为潜在的经济增长点。然而,现行国民经济核算体系未将生态产业列为独立产业,也未计入其对环境改善所贡献的生态服务价值。选取北京作为研究区,采用投入产出分析法,首次将生态产业单列,并将生态系统服务价值纳入计算,以此分析其对国民经济的贡献。研究结果显示,生态产业对经济社会具有积极的拉动效果,其影响力系数达到1.017。生态产业投资对水利环境等公共服务行业,以及房地产、餐饮、娱乐等直接受益行业有较好的促进作用,而对制造业及其他服务业的增长贡献较少。从国民经济的整体来看,生态投资促进了教育和金融领域的发展,每单位生态投资可使区域GDP增长1.318倍。

就业训练中心的职业技能培训效率研究——基于DEA-Malmquist评价模型的分析

基于2012—2021年份《中国劳动统计年鉴》中全国23个省、自治区、直辖市就业训练中心的面板数据,构建DEA-Malmquist评价模型,对各省就业训练中心职业技能培训的投入产出效率进行分析。结果显示,当前各地就业训练中心投入产出效率整体虽处于规模递增状态,但粗放型特征比较明显。建议各地提高对职业技能培训重要性的认识;协调区域间优质资源共享、构建清晰完整的职业技能发展路径;化解潜在的技术退步风险、改进资源投入方式;抓住“互联网+”机遇,积极探索新的效率增长点;实现培训效率和就业水平的整体提升。

SOME RESULTS ON CONTINUOUS TYPE CONDITIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT EQUATION-FIXED POINT AND SURJECTIVITY METHODS

Based on the classical(matrix type)input-output analysis,a type of nonlinear (continuous type) conditional Leontief model,input-output equation were introduced,as well as three corresponding questions,namely,solvability,continuity and surjectivity,and some fixed point and surjectivity methods in nonlinear analysis were used to deal with these questions. As a result,the main theorems are obtained,which provide some sufficient criterions to solve above questions described by the boundary properties of the enterprises consuming operator.

STABILITY ANAL YSISOF THE DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT SYSTEM

The dynamic input output model is well known in economic theory and practice.In this paper,the asymptotic stability and balanced growth solutions of the dynamic input output system are considered.Under some natural assumptions which do not require the technical coefficient matrix to be indecomposable,it has been proved that the dynamic input output system is not asymptotically stable and the closed dynamic input output model has a balanced growth solution.

Regional Agricultural Input-Output Model and Countermeasure for Production and Income Increase of Farmers in Southern Xinjiang,China

Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.

技术封锁对产业发展独立性的影响--基于美国“实体清单”的实证检验

在“实体清单”的基础上,确定与被打压核心企业契合的4类产业,结合投入产出模型与社会网络模型,分析4类产业在产业链中地位以及技术封锁对4类产业发展独立性的影响。研究发现:①计算机、通信和其它电子设备制造业居战略地位,就业吸纳能力强,但产业附加价值率低,属于劳动密集型产业,受“实体清单”影响最大,其它3个产业则处产业发展初始阶段;②计算机、通信和其它电子设备制造业以及科技推广和应用服务业居结构洞位置,自我网络规模大但密度低,结构优势未得到充分利用;③美国实施技术封锁后,中国基础产业研究投入明显增多,产业自立自强发展趋势显著。最后,提出应加大资金支持力度,提高产业劳动报酬,提升核心技术自给率,加快数字化进程,实现产业发展“弯道超车”。

基于生态网络分析的新疆“水-能-碳”耦合系统特征研究

水资源、能源、碳排放是扰动经济社会-生态复合系统的重要因素,单要素变化会产生联动效应,传递生态压力,影响区域和产业的持续发展。以新疆为研究对象,基于2007、2012、2017年新疆投入产出表,运用环境投入产出和生态网络分析模型呈现“水-能-碳”网络系统耦合特征。结果表明:(1)混合水主要用于国内省外流出和居民消费,混合能、混合碳主要用于国内省外流出和资本形成总额。(2)水类网络循环率小于42%,能类网络和碳类网络循环率小于25%,网络系统整体表现出下降趋势。(3)水类网络、能类网络、碳类网络系统鲁棒性向发展停滞一侧倾斜,整体展现出不可持续发展的状态。(4)新疆“水-能-碳”耦合系统各部门间的水系统、能系统、碳系统关联性不强,控制与依赖关系尚处于偶发状态,产业间“水-能-碳”未能形成协同关系。厘清新疆“水-能-碳”耦合系统规律,为实现低碳高效资源综合管理模式提供实证支撑。

Structural Decomposition Analysis on Energy Intensity Changes at Regional Level

As China's energy intensity fluctuated in recent years, it is necessary to examine whether this fluctuation happened at a regional level. This paper establishes a decomposition model by using the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method at a regional level. Then this model is employed to empirically analyze the changes of Beijing's energy intensity. The conclusions are as follows: during 2002-2010, except petroleum, the energy intensity decreased and the changes were mostly attributed to the technology changes, while the final use variation actually increased the energy intensity; comparing different periods of 2002-2010, the decline rates of energy intensity for coal and hydropower were decreasing, resulting from the production technology being more energy-intensive than before; the energy intensity changes of petroleum firstly increased substantially and then decreased moderately.

By Sector Water Consumption and Related Economy Analysis Integrated Model and Its Application in Hai River Basin, China

This paper established a by sector water consumption and economy analysis integrated model with input–output analysis method. The model can be used to identify the relationships between economic activities and the direct water consumption, the total water consumption and the intersectoral water transaction for detailed sectors in regional economy. The method is applied to Hai River Basin in China that is characterized by water shortage. The results found that in Hai River Basin, agriculture sector is responsible for 81.2% of the direct total water consumption in the region, but industrial and service sectors account for 53.2% of the indirect total water consumption. To 24 industrial and service sectors, their ratios of indirect water consumption to total water consumption belong to [90%, 99%]. To per unit output, water consumption intensity was highest in agriculture sector 1 at 96.91 m3 per thousand Yuan, the value of 28 industrial and service sectors were smaller than 1. Products of sector 1, sector 24, sector 3, sector 12, sector 6, sector 11 and sector 10 are the main suppliers of indirect water.

An Analysis of the Influence of Chinese Agriculture on National Economy and the Macroeconomic Effects

As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and national economy and its macroeconomic effects by the methods of input-output analysis,industrial correlation and macroeconomic effect analysis. The results show that the agricultural development is highly dependent on the national economy,but makes low contribution; agriculture contributes to promoting employment and improving the structure of national income distribution; despite the government's tax incentive,the agricultural equipments are updated slowly,and the corporate profits are at low level; agricultural export effect is far below the average industry level,but the import effect increases over the years,and final products are often used for domestic consumption. Finally,we set forth recommendations for improving the development of agriculture and national economy.

中国大豆单产增长的原因探究--基于投入要素与生产率视角的考察

基于2004—2020年大豆主产区的面板数据,利用SFA方法和刀切平均法全面估算大豆种植的生产函数和全要素生产率,采用增长核算表核算大豆生产中各种要素投入及其全要素生产率的贡献率,进一步采用因素分析法探究影响大豆全要素生产率变化的因素。研究发现:在样本期间,大豆种植产出的年均增长速度为1.97%,各产区之间的增长率存在较大差异。生产要素投入是驱动大豆种植单位产出增长的主要因素,其中农药投入的贡献最大;全要素生产率是次要因素。随时间推移,要素投入方面,化肥和农药等化学物资投入对大豆单位产出增长的贡献减小,而良种和机械投入的贡献上升;全要素生产率方面,技术进步对单位产出增长的贡献有所扩大,但技术效率的贡献有所下降。此外,种植面积和有效灌溉面积对大豆全要素生产率有显著的正向影响,城镇化和自然灾害对全要素生产率有显著的负向影响。对此,文章提出优化大豆生产区布局、因地制宜扩大大豆种植面积、鼓励种植户购买优良品种、引进先进技术和生产设备、建立专项基金增加对优质大豆品种的研发投入、提高对豆农的科研指导力度等建议以促进大豆单产提升。

基于复杂网络分析的广东省城镇居民碳足迹研究

应用投入产出模型和复杂网络分析方法,计算了广东省城镇居民直接碳足迹、间接碳足迹,构建了城镇居民间接碳足迹复杂网络,并对碳足迹重点产业部门进行了结构分解分析。研究结果表明:(1)广东省城镇居民直接碳足迹的主要来源是汽油和液化石油气,间接碳足迹网络的核心产业部门是电力、热力的生产和供应业。(2)广东省城镇居民碳足迹的主要来源为间接碳足迹,对所构建的碳足迹网络进行整体结构和个体特征两方面的分析发现,城镇居民间接碳足迹网络的通达性逐年向好,但各产业部门之间的协同碳关联关系的发挥尚有提升空间。(3)根据产业部门在碳足迹网络中的地位和作用,运用相关指标将其划分为碳核心社区、碳中介社区、碳边缘社区,在对碳核心社区的结构分解分析中发现,碳排放强度效应均为减碳因素,消费水平效应、城镇化水平效应、人口效应为增碳因素,且消费水平效应的增碳贡献率最大。