Risk Early-Warning Method for Natural Disasters Based on Integration of Entropy and DEA Model

Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.

The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

Shanxi Province is a region with frequent occurrence of earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards, and agrobiohazards in China. The study shows that the formation and development of the down-faulted basin zone in Shanxi Province provides an available condition for preparation and occurrence of these hazards, so that the basin zone becomes an area with frequent occurrence of the hazards, such as earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards and agrobiohazards in Shanxi and with their most serious interaction and mutual intensification. Moreover, the basin zone is an area with dense population and most concentrated industrial and agricultural productions and social-economic property in Shanxi. The comprehensive effect of the two factors caused the zone to be a high natural disaster risk area in Shanxi. For reduction of natural disasters and ensuring the sustainable social-economic development in Shanxi, it is necessary to regard the basin zone as an important area for disaster reduction in Shanxi and to carry out integrated disaster reduction.

Disaster risk reduction in mountain areas: an initial overview on seeking pathways to global sustainability

As disasters cripple the world’s prospects for sustainable development, protecting the most vulnerable groups exposed to hazards is one of the main challenges facing humanity. Owing to the systemic nature of risk and the interactions and interdependencies between upland and lowland systems, healthy and productive mountain households and livelihoods are essential to global sustainability. This paper argues that, building on existing international frameworks, and integrated knowledge and praxis, the development of a global policy agenda should be established to build sustainable peace, sustainable security, and development.

The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

Shanxi Province is a region with frequent occurrence of earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards, and agrobiohazards in China. The study shows that the formation and development of the down-faulted basin zone in Shanxi Province provides an available condition for preparation and occurrence of these hazards, so that the basin zone becomes an area with frequent occurrence of the hazards, such as earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards and agrobiohazards in Shanxi and with their most serious interaction and mutual intensification. Moreover, the basin zone is an area with dense population and most concentrated industrial and agricultural productions and social-economic property in Shanxi. The comprehensive effect of the two factors caused the zone to be a high natural disaster risk area in Shanxi. For reduction of natural disasters and ensuring the sustainable social-economic development in Shanxi, it is necessary to regard the basin zone as an important area for disaster reduction in Shanxi and to carry out integrated disaster reduction.

Disaster risk reduction in mountain areas: a research overview

This paper gives an account of the diverse dimensions of research on disaster risk reduction in mountain regions derived from an open call of the Journal of Mountain Science that brought 21 contributions.This special issue includes topics as diverse as landslide dynamics and mechanisms,landslide inventories and landslide susceptibility models,insights to landslide hazards and disasters and mitigation measures,disaster response and disaster risk reduction.The overall structure of the paper takes the form of three sections.The first part begins by laying out the significance of disaster risk reduction in mountain areas,whereas the second one looks at the research insights on disaster risk reduction in mountains provided by the contributions comprised in the special volume.The final section identifies areas for further research.

Integrated Disaster Risk Management(IDRM):Elements to Advance Its Study and Assessment

This study analyzed the international key literature on integrated disaster risk management(IDRM),considering it a dynamic sociocultural process subjected to the historical process of social formation,offering a closer look at the concept while exploring conceptual elements and ideas to advance IDRM in both national and international contexts.Methodologically,the study adopted a literature review strategy,following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and MetaAnalyses(PRISMA)approach,combined with qualitative content analysis.This article examines the history of IDRM,discusses current challenges for implementation,looks at some experiences,and proposes avenues for further research.Some findings point out the lack of an overarching IDRM approach,which is characterized by a rather disperse set of ideas and experiences concerning what IDRM is and how it should be operationalized,thereby revealing the need for a more comprehensive theory and methodologies to further advance it.Other findings highlight that IDRM encompasses different kinds and levels of"integrations"that go from internal(that is,disaster risk reduction and management domains)to external(that is,all societal processes such as sustainable development),including temporal and spatial integrations.Hence,we are talking about a multidimensional integration of disaster risk management.In this regard,the article proposes four dimensions for integration:sectoral,spatial/hierarchical,temporal,and externally with other cross-cutting societal challenges,especially climate change and sustainable development.These dimensions cover 29 ideas for indicators or"proto-indicators"to guide the discussion,exploration,and analysis of IDRM in specific contexts.

Health and Risks:Integrating Health into Disaster Risk Reduction,Risk Communication,and Building Resilient Communities

In recent years,‘‘health’’has been recognized explicitly as both a determinant and an outcome of the human dimension of disaster risk reduction(DRR).Every disaster creates significant public health needs that can exceed local capacity to respond,resulting in excess mortality and morbidity.The European Union report on Science

变化条件下长江下游地区防洪问题与韧性提升对策

长江下游地区圩区广布、城镇众多、水网稠密,汛期受长江上中游来水、长江口及沿海高潮和本地暴雨共同威胁。目前,该地区形成了以江河湖海堤防为基本屏障,以水库、湖泊和蓄滞洪区为洪涝调蓄空间,以长江及区域主要河道为洪涝行泄通道,各类闸站相配套的防洪治涝工程体系。但近年来长江流域大洪水事件表明,长江下游防洪工程薄弱环节仍然明显,蓄泄矛盾突出,空间统筹治理和工程协同调度不足,灾害风险预防管控存在盲区,同时还面临着气候水文和经济社会条件双重变化的复杂形势。为强化长江下游地区洪涝灾害风险集成调控、提升应对大洪水的韧性,需在稳固长江干流防洪屏障和行洪主通道的基础上,科学优化各水系洪涝蓄泄格局、加快补齐防洪基础设施短板、促进洪涝治理空间均衡协调、加强洪涝灾害风险管控预防、提升防洪管理智慧化水平。同时,还应针对长江下游地区重大防洪科技问题开展系统深入研究。

基于文本数据的灾害信息风险监测与预警集成方法研究

基于灾害信息的文本数据,该文提出一种风险监测与预警集成方法,以提高灾害信息风险监测效率及监测支持预警的针对性。首先,运用八爪鱼数据采集器采集和处理灾害信息的文本数据;其次,运用BTM主题模型构建灾害信息风险监测模型,得到主题热度趋势并确定具有高风险且亟待预警的话题;然后,提出灾害信息风险预警指标体系和预警等级判定方法,计算所确定话题的风险综合指标预警加权值,并结合预警区间判定预警等级;最后,以2021年“7·20”郑州特大暴雨灾害信息的风险监测和预警为例进行实验分析,验证所提方法的可行性。研究表明,该方法可将灾害信息的文本数据贯穿于风险监测与预警两个过程,有助于为监测结果更有针对性地支持预警工作提供参考。

Multi-Sectoral Reflections and Efforts in Strengthening Partnerships to Reduce Disaster Risk in Mexico:The First MuSe-IDRiM Conference

Notwithstanding the high societal impact of disasters in Mexico,there is a lack of integrated efforts to establish a sound policy for reducing disaster risk to counterbalance the existing concentrated endeavors in disaster management.In the face of such segmentation,the science and technology community has advocated for a change of perspective,from civil protection to integrated disaster risk managemcnt.The first Multi-Sectoral Conference towards Integrated Disaster Risk Management in Mexico:Building a National Public Policy(MuSe-IDRiM Conference)was held in Mexico City at National Autonomous University of Mexico,21-24 October 2019.In support of the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030,the conference aimed at enhancing the dialogue between the scienee and technology community,citizens,civil society organizations,private and public sectors,and the federtil,state,and municipal governments to foster the process of transforming the current National Civil Protection System into a national public policy oriented towards integrated disaster risk management(DRM).Barriers and challenges to the implementation of integrated DRM were identified.Implementation of integrated DRM challenges current socioeconomic structures and encourages all releva nt stakeholders to think,decide,and act from a different perspective and within and across spatial,temporal,jurisdictional,and institutional scales.Understanding disaster risk from an integrated approach,learning skills that authorities have not learned or used,and hence,strengthening disaster risk governance are prerequisites to effectively manage disaster risk.

试论综合灾害风险管理:思想、目标与路径

面对系统和复杂的灾害问题,综合灾害风险管理成为灾害应对的必然选择。但综合灾害风险管理涉及管理学、地理学、经济学、统计学和信息学等众学科。回答何为综合,为何综合,如何综合,构建综合框架下的多学科对灾害管理的共同理解,仍然是该领域的核心挑战。该文试图直面挑战,以“综合风险为核心的综合灾害的综合管理”的观点解释“何为综合”,以“问题导向的研究,综合自然而然”的视角解释“为何综合”,提出“渐进式综合途径”和“以风险曲线为中心的综合灾害风险管理方法”回答“如何综合”的问题。同时展现研究案例,以期为综合灾害风险管理的研究和实践提供参考。

基于“空-天-地”一体化的地震灾害风险动态监测与评估策略研究

针对当前城市地震灾害风险监测手段单一、数据库不够精细以及风险评估静态化等问题,基于“空-天-地”一体化理念,探讨地震灾害风险动态监测和评估的策略研究:将卫星遥感、无人机拍摄和地面观测集成起来,构建了“空-天-地”一体化的监测体系,实现地震灾害全方位动态监测;建立数据信息网络层,使得各种终端能够实现数据共享;通过和风险普查数据相结合,构建了精细化的动态数据库;基于收集到的数据,进行动态风险评估。该地震灾害风险动态监测与评估策略具有高效、智能的特点,对加强普查成果数据的精细化管理以及城市防灾减灾事业的发展具有积极的作用,有望在未来地震预警和防范工作中得到广泛应用。

城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题研究——以河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害为例

极端天气引发暴雨洪涝灾害造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失,而“乌卡”时代的到来加剧了城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统的脆弱性,其易变性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性,使公共领导者和基层实践者在价值层面“应该降低”和实践层面“怎么降低”城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题都面临困境。分析自然、社会、管理和技术四类子系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题,并在此基础上,提出以自然灾害综合风险管理为导向解决“乌卡”问题,通过风险识别、风险分析、风险评价、风险控制分别应对城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题特征,可以为提高城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统韧性提供有益思考。

自然灾害防治能力评估指标体系设计与方法比较研究

在系统梳理自然灾害防治能力概念内涵、灾害防治理念和国内外相关研究的基础上,提出自然灾害防治能力评估技术体系。针对不同的应用场景与需求,分别构建了定性和定量化评估指标体系,涵盖灾害监测预警、灾害风险防范、灾害应急处置与救助救援等多个维度指标。通过案例应用,开展了定性与定量化评估的比较分析。结果表明,评估指标体系体现了灾前-灾中-灾后多要素、多过程及多部门、多主体的综合特征,突出强调短期的减灾成效和长期的能力提升,可适用于常态化、业务化的评估,为自然灾害防治能力提升提供了重要支撑。

基于GIS的地灾风险精细调查系统的设计与应用

通过分析地质灾害精细化调查的业务需求,采用移动GIS、WebGIS、内外业一体化管理、数据采集与存储等技术,构建地质灾害风险精细化调查系统,实现地质灾害风险调查室内资料准备、野外数据采集、室内资料整理3个环节无缝对接;移动端与浏览器端高效协同工作,统一调查手段、统一数据标准,极大地提高地质灾害风险数据采集、存储和查询的效率,系统已经在江西省调查项目中得到应用,缩短了调查周期和时间,实现了地质灾害调查的数字化、智慧化。

中国自然灾害生态风险评价

进行中国(陆地)生态风险评价研究,旨在探讨大尺度的区域生态风险评价方法并实施评价,为生态系统的风险识别和风险防范提供科技支持。选择10种自然灾害作为生态风险源,22种生态系统作为风险受体,并考虑生态-环境脆弱性的影响。在各单项灾害生态风险评价的基础上,完成了中国灾害生态风险综合评价与制图。评价结果显示,从诸种自然灾害风险源叠加的综合生态风险看,生态系统高、中风险等级的比例占全国面积的45%,中国生态保护、风险防范任重而道远。建立适应性的防灾减灾和生态风险防范机制,合理利用和保育森林、草地、农田、湿地等生态系统势在必行。

中国城市综合灾害风险管理现状与对策

世界性城市灾害的加剧已成为城市化进程中的一大障碍,它也是城市化过程的产物。如何协调城市化过程与城市综合灾害风险管理,已成为当今世界、特别是像中国这样的发展中国家可持续发展的一大难题。在综述了中国城市灾害及其风险管理现状的基础上,通过对其薄弱环节的综合分析,依据作者提出的综合灾害风险管理模式,就中国城市综合灾害风险管理对策提出了3条政策建议:即完善城市灾害风险管理的信息保障机制,特别是灾害预警体系、信息共享体系和信息公开机制;加强城市综合减灾能力的建设,特别是明确城市建设中减灾工程与非工程设施投入的固定比例,完善减灾教育宣传体系和综合灾害应急响应的科技平台体系;建立城市综合灾害风险管理范式,特别是高度重视城市规划中综合减灾规划的改进和完善,加快拓展城市企业灾害保险与再保险和发展适应城市灾害风险的“安全社区”范式。

论综合灾害风险防范模式——寻求全球变化影响的适应性对策

在评述国际上近年开展综合灾害风险研究进展的基础上,总结了笔者对综合灾害研究的一些想法与开展综合灾害风险防范的实践,提出了建立综合灾害风险防范模式,即发展区域灾害系统的理论;综合灾害脆弱性、恢复性与适应性,全面理解灾害风险的形成机制;整合政府、企业与社会减灾资源,系统集成区域减灾范式;建立巨灾风险转移机制,实现减灾由区域防范到全球防范的综合。

中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究(英文)

本文依据灾害系统理论和中国自然灾害数据库,构建了反映城市承灾体的综合城市化水平(CL)指标,并在此基础上得到城市脆弱性水平指数。考虑对城市具有结构性破坏和易于造成交通灾情的主要灾种,即水灾、地震、滑坡—泥石流、台风、沙尘暴,构建了反映城市主要致灾因子的综合自然灾害强度(QC)指标,并得到城市综合自然灾害强度指数。据此,在定性分析的基础上,通过半定量计算,将中国城市主要自然灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险、低风险5个等级,编制了中国城市自然灾害风险评价图,并对灾害链的综合风险评价作了进一步的探讨。

加强综合灾害风险研究,提高迎对灾害风险能力——从第6届国际综合灾害风险管理论坛看我国的综合减灾

综述了第6届国际IIASA-DPR I综合灾害风险管理论坛的主要内容,并就中国综合灾害风险管理对策提出了具体的建议。本届论坛的主题是:风险与商业和产经界面临的挑战。论坛除主题报告外,共设置了16个分会场,就综合灾害风险信息共享平台(DRH)的建设、产经界如何迎对灾害风险、地震与洪水灾害风险的综合管理、灾害风险教育与减灾意识的养成、综合灾害风险管理的理论与方法论探讨,以及土耳其国家综合灾害风险管理的经验与教训等进行了深入的研讨。针对上述进展,从我国减灾工作现状,提出从三个方面加强我国综合减灾与灾害风险管理工作,即:各级政府在加强应急管理工作的同时,要高度重视从综合的角度完善减灾战略、规划和能力建设;全面改进产经界迎对灾害风险的能力,特别是非国有中小企业防御灾害风险的能力,以及大型国有企业灾害自保或参保机制的完善;加强综合灾害风险管理研究。