Risk Early-Warning Method for Natural Disasters Based on Integration of Entropy and DEA Model

Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.

Areas vulnerable to natural disasters and damage estimation of infrastructure in Busan, Korea

Since the damages caused by disasters associated with climate anomalies and the diversification of the social structure increase every year, an efficient management system associated with a damage assessment of the areas vulnerable to disasters is demanded to prevent or mitigate the damages to infrastructure. The areas vulnerable to disasters in Busan, located at southeastern part of Korea, were estimated based on historical records of damages and a risk assessment of the infrastructure was performed to provide fundamental information prior to the establishment of the real-time monitoring system for infrastructure and establish disaster management system. The results are illustrated by using geographical information system(GIS) and provide the importance of the roadmap for comprehensive and specific strategy to manage natural disasters.

The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

Shanxi Province is a region with frequent occurrence of earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards, and agrobiohazards in China. The study shows that the formation and development of the down-faulted basin zone in Shanxi Province provides an available condition for preparation and occurrence of these hazards, so that the basin zone becomes an area with frequent occurrence of the hazards, such as earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards and agrobiohazards in Shanxi and with their most serious interaction and mutual intensification. Moreover, the basin zone is an area with dense population and most concentrated industrial and agricultural productions and social-economic property in Shanxi. The comprehensive effect of the two factors caused the zone to be a high natural disaster risk area in Shanxi. For reduction of natural disasters and ensuring the sustainable social-economic development in Shanxi, it is necessary to regard the basin zone as an important area for disaster reduction in Shanxi and to carry out integrated disaster reduction.

The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

Shanxi Province is a region with frequent occurrence of earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards, and agrobiohazards in China. The study shows that the formation and development of the down-faulted basin zone in Shanxi Province provides an available condition for preparation and occurrence of these hazards, so that the basin zone becomes an area with frequent occurrence of the hazards, such as earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards and agrobiohazards in Shanxi and with their most serious interaction and mutual intensification. Moreover, the basin zone is an area with dense population and most concentrated industrial and agricultural productions and social-economic property in Shanxi. The comprehensive effect of the two factors caused the zone to be a high natural disaster risk area in Shanxi. For reduction of natural disasters and ensuring the sustainable social-economic development in Shanxi, it is necessary to regard the basin zone as an important area for disaster reduction in Shanxi and to carry out integrated disaster reduction.

Risk assessment of large-scale winter sports sites in the context of a natural disaster

Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern.However,previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure.With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters,the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events,such as large-scale winter sports sites,cannot be ignored.In this study,a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model(NAEA model)is proposed.Based on the results of the NAEA model,a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established.Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis,it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites.Simultaneously,improving the early warning capability,reliability of electrical equipment,and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents.In addition,an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.

自然灾害风险评估研究进展

全球气候变化背景下,高频、高强度自然灾害严重制约着经济社会高质量发展,及时开展灾害风险评估对防灾减灾至关重要。为准确把握区域灾害风险隐患,全面提升自然灾害防范能力,本文从灾害风险评估对象、评估方法、评估尺度以及影响灾害风险评估结果的不确定性因素等方面阐述了自然灾害风险评估研究进展,以期为风险评估深入研究提供可行性参考。综合分析表明,现有研究在综合灾害、灾害链以及灾害与其他学科的整合研究中仍存在不足,风险评价指标选取的主观性等因素对评估结果的影响以及动态风险评估方法的研究还有待进一步深入,且灾害评估尚未形成综合研究趋势。因此,应充分考虑灾害形成和传播机理,构建系统性综合灾害风险评估体系;耦合多学科理论技术,丰富灾害风险评估方法,推动灾害数据系统不断完善,实现灾害风险评估动态精细化。

自然灾害人口综合风险评估——以宁波市奉化区为例

为评估自然灾害人口综合风险,加强多灾种风险防范,以人类生命体为承灾体,建立了基于危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的风险评估指标体系,利用改进的CRITIC法确定指标权重。考虑不同灾害间的相关关系,引入风险系数并建立多灾种综合危险性的分析模型。以宁波市奉化区为例,选取了该地区常见的6种自然灾害,评估多灾种人口综合风险。研究结果表明:单灾种的危险性评估结果符合实际,奉化地区主要受台风洪涝灾害影响,岳林街道、锦屏街道、松岙镇和溪口镇的多灾种人口综合风险指数较高。

地震巨灾对产业链的冲击影响风险评估

保障产业链安全稳定、具备抗灾韧性,成为我国经济高质量发展的重要基础,因此基于已收集整理的全球大震巨灾对产业链冲击影响资料,梳理分析地震灾害对不同行业及产业链的影响,尤其是针对地震巨灾对产业链影响的特征及要素进行研究。基于全球地震巨灾对产业链的冲击影响研究,通过量化方式给出产业链地震灾害风险评估水平及不同产业链震后恢复能力,并提出产业链地震安全保障举措建议,为研究我国产业链地震敏感性提供参考。

曼谷地区干旱灾害风险分布及变化趋势分析

基于自然灾害风险评估理论,依据致灾因子危险性、承灾体的脆弱性,综合评估曼谷节点地区的干旱灾害风险。进而分析2000—2020年曼谷干旱灾害危险性、脆弱性和风险的空间分布特征和变化趋势。结果表明:1)曼谷干旱危险性在地区间存在差异,符合“北高南低”的规律。高脆弱性地区集中在曼谷都市区中部、佛统府西北部和沙没巴干府西部,与自然条件、人口和经济分布以及城市活动有关。曼谷干旱风险较高,中等及以上干旱灾害风险土地占总面积的41.64%,佛统府西北部和巴吞他尼府中部具有最高风险,同时具有较高的脆弱性和危险性。2)曼谷的风险性、脆弱性和危险性均呈线性上升趋势。巴吞他尼府和佛统府的危险性,佛统府西北部和曼谷中部城乡居民用地的脆弱性,以及佛统府西北部和、巴吞他尼府中部和曼谷都市区中部的干旱风险程度上升较快。3)M-K检验结果显示,曼谷危险性和风险均呈现“东升西降”的空间分布特征,但变化趋势均不显著。曼谷的脆弱性在大部分地区呈极显著上升趋势,沙没沙空府的脆弱性上升趋势最为显著,达到71.23%。4)曼谷的干旱灾害风险程度由危险性和脆弱性共同决定,一元线性线性回归分析结果与M-K检验分析结果在空间分布上存在明显差异,但都表明需采取措施降低脆弱性以降低城市干旱灾害风险。利用精细尺度的空间数据进行分析可以更准确反映该地区的资源管理能力,提高风险评估的合理性,为节点城市的灾害风险管理和风险分布研究提供有价值的参考。

储罐区自然灾害诱发工业灾害风险定量评估框架模型

为提升自然灾害诱发储罐区工业灾害风险管理精细化水平,降低灾害损失,提出1种自然灾害诱发储罐区工业灾害风险的定量评估框架模型。该模型将工业事故多米诺效应量化评价模型拓展,提出自然灾害诱发的储罐结构破坏概率和内容物泄漏频率的计算方法,建立储罐安全屏障对事故升级概率和场景频率影响的量化模型,将框架模型应用于某储罐区雷电风险评价,以个人风险区域定量表征罐区雷电灾害。研究结果表明:该框架模型考虑自然灾害和技术灾害致灾规律,可量化评估安全屏障效用,辅以灾害情景仿真技术,能够提高自然灾害作用下储罐区承灾体暴露性和脆弱性分析精准度。研究结果可为该类灾害事故应急预案编制和应急响应提供科学参考。

热带气旋多致灾因子综合风险评估研究进展

【目的】热带气旋伴随的大风、暴雨及引发的风暴潮、洪涝等致灾因子,为热带气旋风险评估带来了极大的挑战。针对当前热带气旋多致灾因子综合风险评估方法不一的问题,【方法】通过文献分析方法,阐述了热带气旋多致灾因子间的相互关系,并对热带气旋多致灾因子的危险性、承灾体脆弱性和风险评估研究现状进行了梳理。【结果】结果表明:综合考虑热带气旋多因子复合链生关系的定量化风险评估方法极为缺乏,如何降低气候变化背景下未来热带气旋风险评估结果的不确定性是当前的一个难点。【结论】未来可以在厘清热带气旋多致灾因子复杂关系的基础上,基于大数据和机器学习等计算机手段,从机理角度研发热带气旋多致灾因子复合链生关系的承灾体损失和风险量化模型,从而实现热带气旋多致灾因子损失和风险的精准和量化评估,为应急管理和风险防范提供重要支撑。

Mid-short-term risk assessment of power systems considering impact of external environment

Ice flashover,lightning flashover and bird damage are the main reasons that cause transmission facility failure.The impact of these environmental factors on the operational risk levels of power systems should be taken into account in power system maintenance scheduling and operation planning.This paper studies the midshort-term risk assessment methodology considering the impact of the external environment.The relationship model between natural disasters and transmission lines is presented.The conditional outage rate model and the sampling technique are then proposed considering the correlated outage of multiple transmission lines when a disaster happens.The framework of the mid-short-term risk assessment model is outlined.A test case of Jiangxi provincial power grid validates the proposed model.The results show that the model can quantify the impact of disasters on the forced outage rate of transmission component and their outage correlation,and thus effectively revealing the mid-short-term risk of power systems.The model can facilitate a more strategic decision-making on maintenance scheduling and operation planning of power systems.

城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题研究——以河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害为例

极端天气引发暴雨洪涝灾害造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失,而“乌卡”时代的到来加剧了城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统的脆弱性,其易变性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性,使公共领导者和基层实践者在价值层面“应该降低”和实践层面“怎么降低”城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题都面临困境。分析自然、社会、管理和技术四类子系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题,并在此基础上,提出以自然灾害综合风险管理为导向解决“乌卡”问题,通过风险识别、风险分析、风险评价、风险控制分别应对城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统脆弱性的“乌卡”问题特征,可以为提高城市暴雨洪涝灾害防控系统韧性提供有益思考。

自然灾害防治能力评估指标体系设计与方法比较研究

在系统梳理自然灾害防治能力概念内涵、灾害防治理念和国内外相关研究的基础上,提出自然灾害防治能力评估技术体系。针对不同的应用场景与需求,分别构建了定性和定量化评估指标体系,涵盖灾害监测预警、灾害风险防范、灾害应急处置与救助救援等多个维度指标。通过案例应用,开展了定性与定量化评估的比较分析。结果表明,评估指标体系体现了灾前-灾中-灾后多要素、多过程及多部门、多主体的综合特征,突出强调短期的减灾成效和长期的能力提升,可适用于常态化、业务化的评估,为自然灾害防治能力提升提供了重要支撑。

基于AHP-熵权法的河北省传统村落自然灾害风险评价与优化策略研究

传统村落保护价值高,特色建筑聚集,但由于多地处偏远地区,防灾基础设施匮乏,救援不便,自然灾害易发且灾损严重。开展灾前自然灾害风险评价是保护传统村落、减少灾害损失的重要基础。以河北省传统村落为研究对象,基于层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法,构建暴雨洪涝、干旱、地质灾害等多典型灾种的自然灾害综合风险评价体系,利用GIS技术,实现河北省传统村落自然灾害风险等级空间区划,并提出相关优化策略,为推进河北省传统村落保护及其灾害防控提供依据。

中国自然灾害生态风险评价

进行中国(陆地)生态风险评价研究,旨在探讨大尺度的区域生态风险评价方法并实施评价,为生态系统的风险识别和风险防范提供科技支持。选择10种自然灾害作为生态风险源,22种生态系统作为风险受体,并考虑生态-环境脆弱性的影响。在各单项灾害生态风险评价的基础上,完成了中国灾害生态风险综合评价与制图。评价结果显示,从诸种自然灾害风险源叠加的综合生态风险看,生态系统高、中风险等级的比例占全国面积的45%,中国生态保护、风险防范任重而道远。建立适应性的防灾减灾和生态风险防范机制,合理利用和保育森林、草地、农田、湿地等生态系统势在必行。

中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究(英文)

本文依据灾害系统理论和中国自然灾害数据库,构建了反映城市承灾体的综合城市化水平(CL)指标,并在此基础上得到城市脆弱性水平指数。考虑对城市具有结构性破坏和易于造成交通灾情的主要灾种,即水灾、地震、滑坡—泥石流、台风、沙尘暴,构建了反映城市主要致灾因子的综合自然灾害强度(QC)指标,并得到城市综合自然灾害强度指数。据此,在定性分析的基础上,通过半定量计算,将中国城市主要自然灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险、低风险5个等级,编制了中国城市自然灾害风险评价图,并对灾害链的综合风险评价作了进一步的探讨。

沿海城市自然灾害风险研究

自然灾害是当代国际社会、学术界普遍关注的热点问题。随着自然灾害突发强度、频度和广度的不断增长,自然灾害预防工作显得格外重要。沿海城市作为人口集聚、国民经济、社会发展重要区域和战略中心,自然灾害带来的损失是剧烈、致命的,亟待开展沿海城市自然灾害风险研究。该领域目前主要探讨的问题:自然灾害类型与风险辨识;脆弱性评价指标体系与评价模型;自然灾害风险评估与风险管理;自然灾害数据管理范式研究等。沿海城市作为自然灾害频发和受损严重的地区,在全球变暖和快速城市化背景下,目前应集中开展自然灾害风险实证研究:沿海城市脆弱性评价指标体系和综合脆弱性评价方法;自然灾害风险评估程序规范和动态评估模型;自然灾害数据管理范式与模板;自然灾害风险评估GIS工具集等。

自然灾害风险评估与灾害易损性研究进展

自然灾害风险评估是区域减灾防灾重要的基础工作之一。从风险概念和风险度的表达入手,探讨了自然灾害风险评估的对象及其构建的指标体系,对主要自然灾害风险评估方法进行了综合比较,并对灾害易损性评估研究进行了总结,认为对灾害风险下的生态系统易损性关注不多。因此以区域为研究尺度,构建了生态系统灾害风险评估框架,选择危害风险性指数反映灾害危险程度,选择防灾能力指数、承灾能力指数、恢复力指数等构建了生态系统灾害易损性评估指标体系。在对自然灾害风险评估研究认真梳理的基础上,认为复杂性灾害系统的研究、灾害易损性基础理论及定量方法的探索、自然灾害风险研究体系的时空尺度的扩展、自然灾害风险评估精度和可信度的提高是未来灾害风险评估值得重视的趋势。

以历史灾情资料为依据的农业自然灾害风险评估方法

针对小区域内历史灾情资料不多的特点，引入了信息扩散的模糊数学方法，对历史灾情资料进行优化处理，提供了对农业自然灾害进行风险评估的实用方法。在“湖南省自然灾害风险监测管理信息系统”中的应用表明，该方法给出的结果同实际情况相当吻合。