Building trust for traffic flow forecasting components in intelligent transportation systems via interpretable ensemble learning

Traffic flow forecasting constitutes a crucial component of intelligent transportation systems(ITSs).Numerous studies have been conducted for traffic flow forecasting during the past decades.However,most existing studies have concentrated on developing advanced algorithms or models to attain state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy.For real-world ITS applications,the interpretability of the developed models is extremely important but has largely been ignored.This study presents an interpretable traffic flow forecasting framework based on popular tree-ensemble algorithms.The framework comprises multiple key components integrated into a highly flexible and customizable multi-stage pipeline,enabling the seamless incorporation of various algorithms and tools.To evaluate the effectiveness of the framework,the developed tree-ensemble models and another three typical categories of baseline models,including statistical time series,shallow learning,and deep learning,were compared on three datasets collected from different types of roads(i.e.,arterial,expressway,and freeway).Further,the study delves into an in-depth interpretability analysis of the most competitive tree-ensemble models using six categories of interpretable machine learning methods.Experimental results highlight the potential of the proposed framework.The tree-ensemble models developed within this framework achieve competitive accuracy while maintaining high inference efficiency similar to statistical time series and shallow learning models.Meanwhile,these tree-ensemble models offer interpretability from multiple perspectives via interpretable machine-learning techniques.The proposed framework is anticipated to provide reliable and trustworthy decision support across various ITS applications.

End-to-End Joint Multi-Object Detection and Tracking for Intelligent Transportation Systems

Environment perception is one of the most critical technology of intelligent transportation systems(ITS).Motion interaction between multiple vehicles in ITS makes it important to perform multi-object tracking(MOT).However,most existing MOT algorithms follow the tracking-by-detection framework,which separates detection and tracking into two independent segments and limit the global efciency.Recently,a few algorithms have combined feature extraction into one network;however,the tracking portion continues to rely on data association,and requires com‑plex post-processing for life cycle management.Those methods do not combine detection and tracking efciently.This paper presents a novel network to realize joint multi-object detection and tracking in an end-to-end manner for ITS,named as global correlation network(GCNet).Unlike most object detection methods,GCNet introduces a global correlation layer for regression of absolute size and coordinates of bounding boxes,instead of ofsetting predictions.The pipeline of detection and tracking in GCNet is conceptually simple,and does not require compli‑cated tracking strategies such as non-maximum suppression and data association.GCNet was evaluated on a multivehicle tracking dataset,UA-DETRAC,demonstrating promising performance compared to state-of-the-art detectors and trackers.

A deep learning based misbehavior classification scheme for intrusion detection in cooperative intelligent transportation systems

With the rise of the Internet of Vehicles(IoV)and the number of connected vehicles increasing on the roads,Cooperative Intelligent Transportation Systems(C-ITSs)have become an important area of research.As the number of Vehicle to Vehicle(V2V)and Vehicle to Interface(V2I)communication links increases,the amount of data received and processed in the network also increases.In addition,networking interfaces need to be made more secure for which existing cryptography-based security schemes may not be sufficient.Thus,there is a need to augment them with intelligent network intrusion detection techniques.Some machine learning-based intrusion detection and anomaly detection techniques for vehicular networks have been proposed in recent times.However,given the expected large network size,there is a necessity for extensive data processing for use in such anomaly detection methods.Deep learning solutions are lucrative options as they remove the necessity for feature selection.Therefore,with the amount of vehicular network traffic increasing at an unprecedented rate in the C-ITS scenario,the need for deep learning-based techniques is all the more heightened.This work presents three deep learning-based misbehavior classification schemes for intrusion detection in IoV networks using Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs).The proposed Deep Learning Classification Engines(DCLE)comprise of single or multi-step classification done by deep learning models that are deployed on the vehicular edge servers.Vehicular data received by the Road Side Units(RSUs)is pre-processed and forwarded to the edge server for classifications following the three classification schemes proposed in this paper.The proposed classifiers identify 18 different vehicular behavior types,the F1-scores ranging from 95.58%to 96.75%,much higher than the existing works.By running the classifiers on testbeds emulating edge servers,the prediction performance and prediction time comparison of the proposed scheme is compared with those of the existing studies.

A Nationwide Evaluation of the State of Practice of Performance Measurements for Intelligent Transportation Systems

State departments of transportation’s (DOTs) decisions to invest resources to expand or implement intelligent transportation systems (ITS) programs or even retire existing infrastructure need to be based on performance evaluations. Nonetheless, an apparent gap exists between the need for ITS performance measurements and the actual implementation. The evidence available points to challenges in the ITS performance measurement processes. This paper evaluated the state of practice of performance measurement for ITS across the US and provided insights. A comprehensive literature review assessed the use of performance measures by DOTs for monitoring implemented ITS programs. Based on the gaps identified through the literature review, a nationwide qualitative survey was used to gather insights from key stakeholders on the subject matter and presented in this paper. From the data gathered, performance measurement of ITS is fairly integrated into ITS programs by DOTs, with most agencies considering the process beneficial. There, however, exist reasons that prevent agencies from measuring ITS performance to greater detail and quality. These include lack of data, fragmented or incomparable data formats, the complexity of the endeavor, lack of data scientists, and difficulty assigning responsibilities when inter-agency collaboration is required. Additionally, DOTs do not benchmark or compare their ITS performance with others for reasons that include lack of data, lack of guidance or best practices, and incomparable data formats. This paper is relevant as it provides insights expected to guide DOTs and other agencies in developing or reevaluating their ITS performance measurement processes.

Internet of Things Based Solutions for Transport Network Vulnerability Assessment in Intelligent Transportation Systems

Intelligent Transportation System(ITS)is essential for effective identification of vulnerable units in the transport network and its stable operation.Also,it is necessary to establish an urban transport network vulnerability assessment model with solutions based on Internet of Things(IoT).Previous research on vulnerability has no congestion effect on the peak time of urban road network.The cascading failure of links or nodes is presented by IoT monitoring system,which can collect data from a wireless sensor network in the transport environment.The IoT monitoring system collects wireless data via Vehicle-to-Infrastructure(V2I)channels to simulate key segments and their failure probability.Finally,the topological structure vulnerability index and the traffic function vulnerability index of road network are extracted from the vulnerability factors.The two indices are standardized by calculating the relative change rate,and the comprehensive index of the consequence after road network unit is in a failure state.Therefore,by calculating the failure probability of road network unit and comprehensive index of road network unit in failure state,the comprehensive vulnerability of road network can be evaluated by a risk calculation formula.In short,the IoT-based solutions to the new vulnerability assessment can help road network planning and traffic management departments to achieve the ITS goals.

Continual driver behaviour learning for connected vehicles and intelligent transportation systems: Framework, survey and challenges

Modelling,predicting and analysing driver behaviours are essential to advanced driver assistance systems(ADAS)and the comprehensive understanding of complex driving scenarios.Recently,with the development of deep learning(DL),numerous driver behaviour learning(DBL)methods have been proposed and applied in connected vehicles(CV)and intelligent transportation systems(ITS).This study provides a review of DBL,which mainly focuses on typical applications in CV and ITS.First,a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art DBL is presented.Next,Given the constantly changing nature of real driving scenarios,most existing learning-based models may suffer from the so-called“catastrophic forgetting,”which refers to their inability to perform well in previously learned scenarios after acquiring new ones.As a solution to the aforementioned issue,this paper presents a framework for continual driver behaviour learning(CDBL)by leveraging continual learning technology.The proposed CDBL framework is demonstrated to outperform existing methods in behaviour prediction through a case study.Finally,future works,potential challenges and emerging trends in this area are highlighted.

An Optimal Deep Learning for Cooperative Intelligent Transportation System

Cooperative Intelligent Transport System(C-ITS)plays a vital role in the future road traffic management system.A vital element of C-ITS comprises vehicles,road side units,and traffic command centers,which produce a massive quantity of data comprising both mobility and service-related data.For the extraction of meaningful and related details out of the generated data,data science acts as an essential part of the upcoming C-ITS applications.At the same time,prediction of short-term traffic flow is highly essential to manage the traffic accurately.Due to the rapid increase in the amount of traffic data,deep learning(DL)models are widely employed,which uses a non-parametric approach for dealing with traffic flow forecasting.This paper focuses on the design of intelligent deep learning based short-termtraffic flow prediction(IDL-STFLP)model for C-ITS that assists the people in various ways,namely optimization of signal timing by traffic signal controllers,travelers being able to adapt and alter their routes,and so on.The presented IDLSTFLP model operates on two main stages namely vehicle counting and traffic flow prediction.The IDL-STFLP model employs the Fully Convolutional Redundant Counting(FCRC)based vehicle count process.In addition,deep belief network(DBN)model is applied for the prediction of short-term traffic flow.To further improve the performance of the DBN in traffic flow prediction,it will be optimized by Quantum-behaved bat algorithm(QBA)which optimizes the tunable parameters of DBN.Experimental results based on benchmark dataset show that the presented method can count vehicles and predict traffic flowin real-time with amaximumperformance under dissimilar environmental situations.

Telematics as a Transformative Agent for the Zimbabwean Auto Insurance Ecosystem

Zimbabwe has witnessed the evolution of Information Communication Technology (ICT). The vehicle population soared to above 1.2 million hence rendering the Transport and Insurance domains complex. Therefore, there is a need to look at ways that can augment conventional Vehicular Management Information Systems (VMIS) in transforming business processes through Telematics. This paper aims to contextualise the role that telematics can play in transforming the Insurance Ecosystem in Zimbabwe. The main objective was to investigate the integration of Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) with vehicle tracking solutions provided by technology companies like Econet Wireless in Zimbabwe, aiming to align customer billing with individual risk profiles and enhance the synergy between technology and insurance service providers in the motor insurance ecosystem. A triangulation through structured interviews, questionnaires, and literature review, supported by Information Systems Analysis and Design techniques was conducted. The study adopted a case study approach, qualitatively analyzing the complexities of the Telematics insurance ecosystem in Zimbabwe, informed by the TOGAF framework. A case-study approach was applied to derive themes whilst applying within and cross-case analysis. Data was collected using questionnaires, and interviews. The findings of the research clearly show the importance of Telematics in modern-day insurance and the positive relationship between technology and insurance business performance. The study, therefore revealed how UBI can incentivize positive driver behavior, potentially reducing insurance premiums for safe drivers and lowering the incidence of claims against insurance companies. Future work can be done on studying the role of Telematics in combating highway crime and corruption.

Intelligent DoS Attack Detection with Congestion Control Technique for VANETs

VehicularAd hoc Network(VANET)has become an integral part of Intelligent Transportation Systems(ITS)in today’s life.VANET is a network that can be heavily scaled up with a number of vehicles and road side units that keep fluctuating in real world.VANET is susceptible to security issues,particularly DoS attacks,owing to maximum unpredictability in location.So,effective identification and the classification of attacks have become the major requirements for secure data transmission in VANET.At the same time,congestion control is also one of the key research problems in VANET which aims at minimizing the time expended on roads and calculating travel time as well as waiting time at intersections,for a traveler.With this motivation,the current research paper presents an intelligent DoS attack detection with Congestion Control(IDoS-CC)technique for VANET.The presented IDoSCC technique involves two-stage processes namely,Teaching and Learning Based Optimization(TLBO)-based Congestion Control(TLBO-CC)and Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU)-based DoS detection(GRU-DoSD).The goal of IDoS-CC technique is to reduce the level of congestion and detect the attacks that exist in the network.TLBO algorithm is also involved in IDoS-CC technique for optimization of the routes taken by vehicles via traffic signals and to minimize the congestion on a particular route instantaneously so as to assure minimal fuel utilization.TLBO is applied to avoid congestion on roadways.Besides,GRU-DoSD model is employed as a classification model to effectively discriminate the compromised and genuine vehicles in the network.The outcomes from a series of simulation analyses highlight the supremacy of the proposed IDoS-CC technique as it reduced the congestion and successfully identified the DoS attacks in network.

Optimal control and energy storage for DC electric train systems using evolutionary algorithms

Electrified railways are becoming a popular transport medium and these consume a large amount of electrical energy.Environmental concerns demand reduction in energy use and peak power demand of railway systems.Furthermore,high transmission losses in DC railway systems make local storage of energy an increasingly attractive option.An optimisation framework based on genetic algorithms is developed to optimise a DC electric rail network in terms of a comprehensive set of decision variables including storage size,charge/discharge power limits,timetable and train driving style/trajectory to maximise benefits of energy storage in reducing railway peak power and energy consumption.Experimental results for the considered real-world networks show a reduction of energy consumption in the range 15%–30%depending on the train driving style,and reduced power peaks.

Key Technology Analysis for Driver Support Systems in Japan

This paper presents the technical survey and the trend analysis of the driver support technologies such as a pre-crush braking system in Japan. In the first part, Vehicle Intelligence to assist drivers is defined by two objective functions which are both TGA （Target Generation Agent） and TAA （Target Accomplishment Agent）. TAA is mainly based on the conventional technologies that are braking smoothly, or driving with lower fuel consumption. On the other hand, TGA has the intelligent function instead of human drivers. The actual TGA are explained using some concrete driver support systems. After that, Japanese market introduction date and evolution of driver support systems are discussed with clarifying cognitive aspects which are the perception support, the judgment support and the execution support. And Key technologies underlying evolution of driver support systems are explained. Finally the author concludes that the knowledge and insights needed for intelligent driver support systems will be much more complex than in the case of autonomous vehicles that drive themselves.

Parameter Tuned Deep Learning Based Traffic Critical Prediction Model on Remote Sensing Imaging

Remote sensing(RS)presents laser scanning measurements,aerial photos,and high-resolution satellite images,which are utilized for extracting a range of traffic-related and road-related features.RS has a weakness,such as traffic fluctuations on small time scales that could distort the accuracy of predicted road and traffic features.This article introduces an Optimal Deep Learning for Traffic Critical Prediction Model on High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images(ODLTCP-HRRSI)to resolve these issues.The presented ODLTCP-HRRSI technique majorly aims to forecast the critical traffic in smart cities.To attain this,the presented ODLTCP-HRRSI model performs two major processes.At the initial stage,the ODLTCP-HRRSI technique employs a convolutional neural network with an auto-encoder(CNN-AE)model for productive and accurate traffic flow.Next,the hyperparameter adjustment of the CNN-AE model is performed via the Bayesian adaptive direct search optimization(BADSO)algorithm.The experimental outcomes demonstrate the enhanced performance of the ODLTCP-HRRSI technique over recent approaches with maximum accuracy of 98.23%.

A Nonlinear Spatiotemporal Optimization Method of Hypergraph Convolution Networks for Traffic Prediction

Traffic prediction is a necessary function in intelligent transporta-tion systems to alleviate traffic congestion.Graph learning methods mainly focus on the spatiotemporal dimension,but ignore the nonlinear movement of traffic prediction and the high-order relationships among various kinds of road segments.There exist two issues:1)deep integration of the spatiotempo-ral information and 2)global spatial dependencies for structural properties.To address these issues,we propose a nonlinear spatiotemporal optimization method,which introduces hypergraph convolution networks(HGCN).The method utilizes the higher-order spatial features of the road network captured by HGCN,and dynamically integrates them with the historical data to weigh the influence of spatiotemporal dependencies.On this basis,an extended Kalman filter is used to improve the accuracy of traffic prediction.In this study,a set of experiments were conducted on the real-world dataset in Chengdu,China.The result showed that the proposed method is feasible and accurate by two different time steps.Especially at the 15-minute time step,compared with the second-best method,the proposed method achieved 3.0%,11.7%,and 9.0%improvements in RMSE,MAE,and MAPE,respectively.

Application of cluster analysis and stepwise regression in predicting the traffic volume of lanes

Because of the difficulty to obtain the traffic flow information of lanes at non-detector intersections in most metropolises of the world,based on the relationships between the lanes of signal-controlled intersections,cluster analysis and stepwise regression are integrated to predict the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated controlled intersections.First cluster analysis is used to cluster the lanes of non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections and the lanes of all signal-controlled intersections with detectors.Then, by the results of cluster analysis,the traffic volume samples are selected randomly and stepwise regression is used to predict the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections.The method is tested by the traffic volume data of lanes of the road network of Nanjing city.The problem of predicting the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections was resolved and can be widely used in urban traffic flow guidance and urban traffic control in cities without enough intersections equipped with detectors.

A Dynamic Road Incident Information Delivery Strategy to Reduce Urban Traffic Congestion

Advanced information and communication technolo-gies can be used to facilitate traffic incident management.If an incident is detected and blocks a road link,in order to reduce the incident-induced traffic congestion,a dynamic strategy to deliver incident information to selected drivers and help them make detours in urban areas is proposed by this work.Time-dependent shortest path algorithms are used to generate a subnetwork where vehicles should receive such information.A simulation approach based on an extended cell transmission model is used to describe traffic flow in urban networks where path information and traffic flow at downstream road links are well modeled.Simulation results reveal the influences of some major parameters of an incident-induced congestion dissipation process such as the ratio of route-changing vehicles to the total vehicles,operation time interval of the proposed strategy,traffic density in the traffic network,and the scope of the area where traffic incident information is delivered.The results can be used to improve the state of the art in preventing urban road traffic congestion caused by incidents.

An Intelligent Transportation System Application for Smartphones Based on Vehicle Position Advertising and Route Sharing in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks

Alerting drivers about incoming emergency vehicles and their routes can greatly improve their travel time in congested cities, while reducing the risk of accidents due to distractions. This paper contributes to this goal by proposing Messiah, an Android application capable of informing regular vehicles about incoming emergency vehicles like ambulances, police cars and fire brigades. This is made possible by creating a network of vehicles capable of directly communicating between them. The user can, therefore, take driving decisions in a timely manner by considering incoming alerts. Using the support of our GRCBox hardware, the application can rely on vehicular ad-hoc network communications in the 5 GHz band, being V2V （vehicle-to-vehicle） communication provided through a combination of Android-based smartphone and our GRCBox device. The application was tested in three different scenarios with different levels of obstruction, showing that it is capable of providing alerts up to 300 meters, and notifying vehicles within less than one second.

On the Connectivity of One-dimensional Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

In this paper we analyze connectivity of one-dimensional Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks where vehicle gap distribution can be approximat- ed by an exponential distribution. The probabilities of Vehicular Ad Hoc Network connectivity for difference cases are derived. Furthermore we proof that the nodes in a sub-interval [z1, z1 ＋ △z] of interval [0,z],z 〉 0 where all the nodes are independently uniform distributed is a Poisson process and the relationship of Vehicle Ad hoc Networks and one-dimensional Ad Hoc networks where nodes independently uniform distributed in [zl, z1 ＋ △z] is explained. The analysis is validated by computing the probability of network connectivity and comparing it with the Mont Carlo simu- lation results.

Multi-Vehicle Cooperative Positioning Based on Edge-Computed Multidimensional Scaling

As the basis of location-based services(LBS),positioning is one of the most essential parts in intelligent transportation systems(ITS).Although global positioning system(GPS)has been widely used in vehicle positioning,it can not achieve lane level positioning accuracy.Motivated by the mature ranging technologies such as radar and ultra-wideband(UWB),several cooperative positioning(CP)methods have been proposed to enhance the accuracy and robustness of GPS.In this paper,we proposed a twostage CP algorithm that combines multidimensional scaling(MDS)and Procrustes analysis for vehicles with GPS information.Specifically,the optimized MDS based on the scaling by majorizing a complicated function(SMACOF)algorithm is first proposed to get the relative coordinates of vehicles which can tackle measurements of different error distributions,then Procrustes analysis is carried out to transform the relative coordinates of vehicles to their absolute coordinates based on GPS information.All the computations are performed at the mobile edge computing node(MECN)for the request of ultra-reliable and low latency communications(URLLC).Simulation results validate that the proposed algorithm can greatly improve the positioning accuracy and robustness for vehicles.

Roadroid： Continuous Road Condition Monitoring with Smart Phones

Road condition is an important variable to measure in order to decrease road and vehicle operating/maintenance costs, but also to increase ride comfort and traffic safety. By using the built-in vibration sensor in smart phones, it is possible to collect road roughness data which can be an indicator of road condition up to a level of Class 2 or 3 in a simple and cost efficient way. Since data collection therefore is possible to be done more frequently, one can better monitor roughness changes over time. The continuous data collection can also give early warnings of changes and damage, enable new ways to work in the operational road maintenance management, and can serve as a guide for more accurate surveys for strategic asset management and pavement planning. Collected measurement data are wirelessly transferred by the operator when needed via a web service to an internet mapping server with spatial filtering functions. The measured data can be aggregated in preferred sections, as well as exported to other GlS （geographical information systems） or road management systems. Our conclusion is that measuring roads with smart phones can provide an efficient, scalable, and cost-effective way for road organizations to deliver road condition data.

Sustainable transit vehicle tracking service,using intelligent transportation system services and emerging communication technologies:A review

The most salient problems of transit vehicle service in Latin American intermediate cities include:the high number of passengers involved in traffic accidents;traffic congestion caused by transit vehicles,and pollution generated by these vehicles,which increases in high congestion scenarios.To improve upon this situation,a research was conducted on the transit vehicle tracking service,which is a basic service for implementing mobility solutions for the aforementioned problems,the most relevant characteristics of this service for the context of Latin American intermediate cities were identified,and an implementation was proposed.This paper presents the four stages of the study:(a)a review of the state-of-the-art of services or systems related to vehicle tracking,including wireless communications technologies,implemented sustainability approaches,usage of special algorithms for efficiency improvement,and the intelligent transportation system(ITS)architecture used as a basis;(b)the process of identifying relevant characteristics of the service for a given context;(c)proposal of an ITS architecture for this service in an intermediate city,its requirements and the suggested technologies;and(d)development of experiments for validating usage of the key suggested technologies.The review allowed to identify the main service characteristics,with regard to vehicle positioning technologies,the recommended wireless communication technology(long range,LoRa),energy consumption considerations,and use of artificial intelligence(AI)to calculate waiting time of users at bus stops.Finally,an ITS architecture for the city of Popayan(Colombian city)considering the aforementioned characteristics is proposed,and the experiments related to the use of these technologies are described in detail.