Numerical Study of the Influences of a Monsoon Gyre on Intensity Changes of Typhoon Chan-Hom(2015)

Typhoon Chan-Hom （2015） underwent a weakening in the tropical western North Pacific （WNP） when it interacted with a monsoon gyre, but all operational forecasts failed to predict this intensity change. A recent observational study indicated that it resulted from its interaction with a monsoon gyre on the 15-30-day timescale. In this study, the results of two numerical experiments are presented to investigate the influence of the monsoon gyre on the intensity changes of Typhoon Chan-Hom （2015）. The control experiment captures the main observed features of the weakening process of Chan-Hom （2015） during a sharp northward turn in the Philippine Sea, including the enlargement of the eye size, the development of strong convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre, and the corresponding strong outer inflow. The sensitivity experiment suggests that intensity changes of Chan-Hom （2015） were mainly associated with its interaction with the monsoon gyre. When Chan-Horn （2015） initially moved westward in the eastern part of the monsoon gyre, the monsoon gyre enhanced the inertial stability for the intensification of the typhoon. With its coalescence with the monsoon gyre, the development of the strong convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre prevented moisture and mass entering the inner core of Chan-Hom （2015）, resulting in the collapse of the eyewall. Thus, the weakening happened in the deep tropical WNP region. The numerical simulations confirm the important effects of the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres on tropical cyclone intensity.

Centennial Analysis of Human Activity Intensity and Associated Historical Events in Heilongjiang River Sino-Russo Watershed

Human activities in a transborder watershed are complex under the influence of domestic policies,international relations,and global events.Understanding the forces driving human activity change is important for the development of transborder watershed.In this study,we used global historical land cover data,the hemeroby index model,and synthesized major historical events to analyze how human activity intensity changed in the Heilongjiang River(Amur River in Russia)watershed(HLRW).The results showed that there was a strong spatial heterogeneity in the variation of human activity intensity in the HLRW over the past century(1900-2016).On the Chinese side,the human activity intensity change shifted from the plain areas for agricultural reclamation to the mountainous areas for timber extraction.On the Russian side,human activity intensity changes mostly concentrated along the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Baikal-Amur Mainline.Localized variation of human activity intensity tended to respond to regional events while regionalized variation tends to reflect national policy change or broad international events.The similarities and differences between China and Russia in policies and positions in international events resulted in synchronous and asynchronous changes in human activity intensity.Meanwhile,policy shifts were often confined by the natural features of the watershed.These results reveal the historical origins and fundamental connotations of watershed development and contribute to formulating regional management policies that coordinate population,eco-nomic,social,and environmental activities.

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones:A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds.It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution.In contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall.These led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall.These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC.Our study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC.Additionally,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.

Influence of Future Tropical Cyclone Track Changes on Their Basin-Wide Intensity over the Western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

The possible changes of tropical cyclone（TC） tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific（WNP） are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5） models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5（RCP4.5）scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.

The Role of β-effect and a Uniform Current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

A limited-area primitive equation model is used to study the role of the β-effect and a uniform current on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. It is found that TC intensity is reduced in a non-quiescent environment compared with the case of no uniform current. On an f-plane, the rate of intensification of a tropical cyclone is larger than that of the uniform flow. A TC on a β-plane intensifies slower than one on an f-plane. The main physical characteristic that distinguishes the experiments is the asymmetric thermodynamic (including convective) and dynamic structures present when either a uniform flow or β-effect is introduced. But a fairly symmetric TC structure is simulated on an f-plane. The magnitude of the warm core and the associated subsidence are found to be responsible for such simulated intensity changes. On an f-plane, the convection tends to be symmetric, which results in strong upper-level convergence near the center and hence strong forced subsidence and a very warm core. On the other hand, horizontal advection of temperature cancels part of the adiabatic heating and results in less warming of the core, and hence the TC is not as intense. This advective process is due to the tilt of the vortex as a result of the β-effect. A similar situation occurs in the presence of a uniform flow. Thus, the asymmetric horizontal advection of temperature plays an important role in the temperature distribution. Dynamically, the asymmetric angular momentum (AM) flux is very small on an f-plane throughout the troposphere. However, the total AM exports at the upper levels for a TC either on a β-plane or with a uniform flow environment are larger because of an increase of the asymmetric as well as symmetric AM export on the plane at radii >450 km, and hence there is a lesser intensification.

Understanding of the Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Intensity:A Review

The effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity has been an important scientific issue for a few decades.Although theory and modeling suggest the intensification of tropical cyclones in a warming climate,there are uncertainties in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate change.While a few comprehensive reviews have already provided an assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity including tropical cyclone intensity,this review focuses mainly on the understanding of the effect of climate change on basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity,including indices for basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity,historical datasets used for intensity trend detection,environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity,detection and simulation of tropical cyclone intensity change,and some issues on the assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity.In addition to the uncertainty in the historical datasets,intertwined natural variabilities,the considerable model bias in the projected large-scale environment,and poorly simulated inner-core structures of tropical cyclones,it is suggested that factors controlling the basin-wide intensity can be different from individual tropical cyclones since the assessment of the effect of climate change treats tropical cyclones in a basin as a whole.

IMPACT OF SEA SPRAY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY CHANGE

In this paper,the effects of sea spray on tropical cyclone(TC)structure and intensity variation are evaluated through numerical simulations using an advanced sea-spray parameterization from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory(NOAA/ESRL),which is incorporated in the idealized Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW)model.The effect of sea spray on TC boundary-layer structure is also analyzed.The results show that there is a significant increase in TC intensity when its boundary-layer wind includes the radial and tangential winds,their structure change,and the total surface wind speed change.Diagnosis of the vorticity budget shows that an increase of convergence in TC boundary layer enhances TC vorticity due to the dynamic effect of sea spay.The main kinematic effect of the friction velocity reduction by sea spray produces an increment of large-scale convergence in the TC boundary layer,while the radial and tangential winds significantly increase with an increment of the horizontal gradient maximum of the radial wind, resulting in a final increase in the simulated TC intensity.The surface enthalpy flux enlarges TC intensity and reduces storm structure change to some degree,which results in a secondary thermodynamic impact on TC intensification.Implications of the new interpretation of sea-spray effects on TC intensification are also discussed.

EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.

Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts from Five Global Ensemble Prediction Systems During 2015-2019

This study presented an evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity forecasts from five global ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) during 2015-2019 in the western North Pacific region. Notable error features include the underestimation of the TC intensity by ensemble mean forecast and the under-dispersion of the probability forecasts.The root mean square errors(brier scores) of the ensemble mean(probability forecasts) generally decrease consecutively at long lead times during the five years, but fluctuate between certain values at short lead times.Positive forecast skill appeared in the most recent two years(2018-2019) at 120 h or later as compared with the climatology forecasts. However, there is no obvious improvement for the intensity change forecasts during the 5-year period, with abrupt intensity change remaining a big challenge. The probability forecasts show no skill for strong TCs at all the lead times. Among the five EPSs, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best for the intensity forecast, while NCEPGEFS ranks the best for the intensity change forecast, according to the evaluation of ensemble mean and dispersion.As for the other probability forecast evaluation, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best at lead times shorter than 72 h, while NCEP-GEFS ranks the best later on.

Potential enstrophical diagnostic analyses on the mechanism of change of tropical cyclone intensity

It is indicated that the change of mean potential enstrophy within tropical cyclone (TC) corresponds tothe change of TC intensity. A series of factors influencing the intensity change have been discussed by calculating budget of potential enstrophy in tangential wave-number domain in cylindric coordinates. The results indicate thatthe vertical distribution of mean diabatic heating is an important factor that influences the change of TC intensitythrough transformation mechanism of the Coriolis effect and cyclonic vorticity, especially in the sudden intensifyingstage of TC. It is favourable to the intensification when the diabatic heating is largest in upper-middle troposphere,while TC weakens when this kind of role of heating become small or the heating is largest in lower troposphere. Therole of the axisymmetric fields of TC is different from that of the non-axisymmetric fields. In addition,we have analysed some other factors that influence TC intensity.

Monitoring Forest Recovery in Protected Forests of Northern Côte d’Ivoire Using Landsat Imagery and Intensity Change Analysis

In this paper, the initiatives of reforestation of the national forests of the North of the Côte d’Ivoire were examined using geomatics and the analysis of change of intensity by taking the case of the protected Forest of Badénou (PFB). A spatial analysis based on multi-spectral and multi-temporal Landsat imagery was carried out to assess land cover changes in the (PFB) over the past two decades and determine whether patterns of change in terms of the intensity of gains/losses of each of the land cover classes were active or dormant between the period before (2000-2013) and after (2013-2019) the reforestation initiative. Five main classes were identified: forest (dry deciduous and gallery forests), tree savannah, shrub/grassy savannah (including agricultural lands), bare lands (bare soils and degraded land areas), and water course. All classes were satisfactorily classified, with an excellent producer’s and user’s and overall accuracies and very good Kappa coefficients. The results showed that between 2000 and 2019, the forest cover in the PFB increased from 7778 ha to 5054 ha, a decrease was marked between 2000 and 2013 of approximately 60% compared to its size in 2000, while a slight increase between 2013 and 2019 (4645 ha to 5054 ha) i.e. around 9%) certainly due to the reforestation since 2016. As for the annual intensities of change for each class in both study periods, changes (gain or loss) in forest and tree savanna were relatively dormant after reforestation, while annual bare land gain was relatively active and marked, indicating that degradation of forests remains a threat to the sustainability of the PFB. Forest degradation has occurred mainly in the eastern parts of the PFB, while the central parts have regained more tree cover. These results can help identify conservation and restoration priorities and improve the overall management of the PFB.

Interaction of Typhoon and Mesoscale Vortex

Under two types of initial tropical cyclone structures that are characterized by high and low vorticity zones, four sets of numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the interaction of a tropical cyclone with an adjacent mesoscale vortex (MSV) and its impact on the tropical cyclone intensity change, using a quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 km. The results suggest that the interaction of a tropical cyclone characterized by a high vorticity zonal structure and an MSV would result in an intensification of the cyclone. Its central pressure decreases by more than 14 hPa. In the process of the interaction, the west and middle segments of the high vorticity zone evolve into two peripheral spiral bands of the tropical cyclone, and the merging of the east segment and the inward propagating MSV forms a new vorticity accumulation area, wherein the maximum vorticity is remarkably greater than that in the center of the initial tropical cyclone circulation. It is this process of merging and strengthening that causes a greater pressure decrease in the center of the tropical cyclone. This process is also more complicated than those that have been studied in the past, which indicated that only the inward transfer of vorticity of the MSV can result in the strengthening of the tropical cyclone.

Design Property Network-Based Change Propagation Prediction Approach for Mechanical Product Development

Design changes are unavoidable during mechanical product development; whereas the avalanche propagation of design change imposes severely negative impacts on the design cycle. To improve the validity of the change propagation prediction, a mathematical program- ming model is presented to predict the change propagation impact quantitatively. As the foundation of change propa- gation prediction, a design change analysis model（DCAM） is built in the form of design property network. In DCAM, the connections of the design properties are identified as the design specification, which conform to the small-world network theory. To quantify the change propagation impact, change propagation intensity（CPI） is defined as a quantitative and much more objective assessment metric. According to the characteristics of DCAM, CPI is defined and indicated by tour assessment factors： propagation likelihood, node degree, long-chain linkage, and design margin. Furthermore, the optimal change propagation path is searched with the evolutionary ant colony optimiza- tion（ACO） algorithm, which corresponds to the minimized maximum of accumulated CPI. In practice, the change impact of a gear box is successfully analyzed. The pro- posed change propagation prediction method is verified tobe efficient and effective, which could provide different results according to various the initial changes.

A NUMERICAL STUDY ON VORTICITY PROPAGATION AND CHANGES IN TYPHOON INTENSITY

An f-plane quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model of high resolution is designed in this paper in order to investigate the characters of vorticity propagation and the effect of nonlinearity on the propagation within a typhoon circulation,wherein two mesoscale vortices coexist at different radial positions.The results of 10 sets of experiments suggest that in comparison with only one vortex,the intensity of the inward propagations of vorticity strengthens distinctly,vorticity detains in the inner region of typhoon circulation for a longer time,and the local maximum wind speed in the inner region increases clearly.The introduction of nonlinear advection into the model weakens the intensity of both inward and outward propagations of vorticity,but makes the inward propagation up to a position closer to the center of typhoon.

Numerical Simulation of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Katrina(2005):Sensitivity to Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes

Accurate forecasting of the intensity changes of hurricanes is an important yet challenging problem in numerical weather prediction. The rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina（2005） before its landfall in the southern US is studied with the Advanced Research version of the WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting） model. The sensitivity of numerical simulations to two popular planetary boundary layer（PBL） schemes, the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic（MYJ） and the Yonsei University（YSU） schemes, is investigated. It is found that, compared with the YSU simulation, the simulation with the MYJ scheme produces better track and intensity evolution, better vortex structure, and more accurate landfall time and location. Large discrepancies（e.g.,over 10 hPa in simulated minimum sea level pressure） are found between the two simulations during the rapid intensification period. Further diagnosis indicates that stronger surface fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL from the simulation with the MYJ scheme lead to enhanced air–sea interaction, which helps generate more realistic simulations of the rapid intensification process. Overall, the results from this study suggest that improved representation of surface fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL is essential for accurate prediction of hurricane intensity changes.

Radiative Effects on Torrential Rainfall during the Landfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013)

Cloud microphysical and rainfall responses to radiative processes are examined through analysis of cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments of Typhoon Fitow（2013） during landfall.The budget analysis shows that the increase in the mean rainfall caused by the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds corresponds to the decrease in accretion of raindrops by cloud ice in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds,but the rainfall is insensitive to radiative effects of water clouds in the absence of radiative effects of ice clouds.The increases in the mean rainfall resulting from the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds correspond to the enhanced net condensation.The increases（decreases） in maximum rainfall caused by the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds in the presence（absence） of radiative effects of ice clouds,or the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds in the presence（absence） of radiative effects of water clouds,correspond mainly to the enhancements（reductions） in net condensation.The mean rain rate is a product of rain intensity and fractional rainfall coverage.The radiation-induced difference in the mean rain rate is related to the difference in rain intensity.The radiation-induced difference in the maximum rain rate is associated with the difference in the fractional coverage of maximum rainfall.

CHANGES OF TYPHOON INTENSITY AND ITS POSSIBLE INFLUENCING FACTORS IN AN f-PLANE BAROTROPIC QUASIGEOSTROPHIC MODEL

By using an f-plane barotropic quasigeostrophic model with the grid-spacing being 5 km,21 experiments whose integration time is 36 h are performed in this paper in order to investigate interactions between a typhoon vortex and its adjacent mesoscale vortices.Results show that whether the interaction leads to the intensification of the typhoon vortex depends on two kinds of factors:one is the value of the maximum wind speed of the typhoon vortex and the intensity of the shearing of circular basic flow:and the other is the condition of mesoscale vortices in the shearing basic flow,such as the spatial distribution,scale,intensity and structure of mesoscale vortices. There is the nonlinear relation between typhoon intensity and the scale and intensity of initial mesoscale vortices.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON RE-INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL REMNANT RE-ENTERING THE SEA:A CASE STUDY

When Typhoon Toraji(2001)reached the Bohai Gulf during 1-2 August 2001,a heavy rainfall event occurred over Shandong province in China along the gulf.The Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF-ARW)model was used to explore possible effects of environmental factors,including effects of moisture transportation,upper-level trough interaction with potential vorticity anomalies,tropical cyclone(TC)remnant circulation,and TC boundary-layer process on the re-intensification of Typhoon Toraji,which re-entered the Bohai Gulf after having made a landfall.The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)global final(FNL)analysis provided both the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the WRF-ARW model.The model was initialized at 1200 UTC on 31 July and integrated until 1200 UTC on 3 August 2001,during which Toraji remnant experienced the extratropical transition and re-intensification.Five numerical experiments were performed in this study,including one control and four sensitivity experiments.In the control experiment,the simulated typhoon had a track and intensity change similar to those observed.The results from three sensitivity experiments showed that the moisture transfer by a southwesterly lower-level jet,a low vortex to the northeast of China,and the presence of Typhoon Toraji all played important roles in simulated heavy rainfall over Shandong and remnant re-intensification over the sea,which are consistent with the observation.One of the tests illustrated that the local boundary layer forcing played a secondary role in the TC intensity change over the sea.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION STUDY ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TYPHOON HAIKUI(1211) OFF THE SHORE OF CHINA

Forecasting the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones over offshore areas remains difficult. In this article,the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF) model was used to study the rapid intensification of Typhoon Haikui(1211)off the shore of China. After successful simulation of the intensity change and track of the typhoon, the model output was further analyzed to determine the mechanism of the rapid change in intensity. The results indicated that a remarkable increase in low-level moisture transportation toward the inner core, favorable large-scale background field with low-level convergence, and high-level divergence played key roles in the rapid intensification of Typhoon Haikui in which high-level divergence could be used as an indicator for the rapid intensity change of Typhoon Haikui approximately 6 h in advance. An analysis of the typhoon structure revealed that Typhoon Haikui was structurally symmetric during the rapid intensification and the range of the eyewall was small in the low level but extended outward in the high level. In addition, the vertically ascending motion, the radial and tangential along wind speeds increased with increasing typhoon intensity, especially during the process of rapid intensification. Furthermore, the intensity of the warm core of the typhoon increased during the intensification process with the warm core extending outward and toward the lower layer. All of the above structural changes contributed to the maintenance and development of typhoon intensity.

A review of recent research progress on the effect of external influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

Over the past four years,significant research has advanced our understanding of how external factors influence tropical cyclone(TC)intensity changes.Research on air-sea interactions shows that increasing the moisture disequilibrium is a very effective way to increase surface heatfluxes and that ocean salinity-stratification plays a non-negligible part in TC intensity change.Vertical wind shear from the environment induces vortex misalignment,which controls the onset of significant TC intensification.Blocking due to upper-level outflow from TCs can reduce the magnitude of vertical wind shear,making for TC intensification.Enhanced TC-trough interactions are vital for rapid intensification in some TC cases because of strengthened warm air advection,but upper-level troughs are found to limit TC intensification in other cases due to dry midlevel air intrusions and increased shear.Aerosol effects on TCs can be divided into direct effects involving aerosol-radiation interactions and indirect effects involving aerosol-cloud interactions.The radiation absorption by the aerosols can change the temperature profile and affect outer rainbands through changes in stability and microphysics.Sea spray and sea salt aerosols are more important in the inner region,where the aerosols increase precipitation and latent heating,promoting more intensification.For landfalling TCs,the intensity decay is initially more sensitive to surface roughness than soil moisture,and the subsequent decay is mainly due to the rapid reduction in surface moisturefluxes.These new insights further sharpen our understanding of the mechanisms by which external factors influence TC intensity changes.