How did the price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in China evolve from 1999 to 2015? The role of natural gas price reform

As a cleaner,high-efficiency,and low-carbon fuel,natural gas has been an important fuel resource for China.To achieve a substantial increase in natural gas demand,China has sought to reform its natural gas pricing mechanism.Employing a set of unbalanced panel data for China’s 30 provinces covering 1999-2015,this study aims to estimate the evolving price and income elasticities of natural gas demand and explore the effect of natural gas price reform in China.For this purpose,a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity is utilized.The results suggest that although natural gas demand in China still lacks negative price elasticity,the phenomenon is improving.Moreover,the estimates suggest that natural gas demand in China is indeed becoming increasingly sensitive to income changes.Our estimates also provide strong evidence in favor of the effect of natural gas price reform on the change in price elasticity as the price elasticity decreases in five of the seven regions.In addition,the results indicate large variations in the change in price and income elasticities of natural gas demand across China’s regions.Natural gas demand is becoming more price inelastic in Southwest China and Northwest China,while such demand in North China and East China responds less sensitively to income changes.These findings offer several policy suggestions for the reform of China’s natural gas market at the national and regional levels.

Impacts of household income on beef at-home consumption:Evidence from urban China

Beef consumption in China has increased substantially from 5.0 million tons in 2000 to 7.7 million tons in 2019 thanks to rapid income growth,but still remains low compared to pork and poultry consumption.Improving the understanding about the impacts of household income on beef consumption in China is necessary to forecast future beef demand and inform the domestic beef industry,especially in the context of unprecedented expansion of middle income class in China.Based on survey data of 32878 urban households collected by the National Bureau of Statistics of China,we employed the inverse hyperbolic sine(IHS)double-hurdle model to estimate income elasticities of beef demand across different income groups and simulated possible trends of future beef consumption of Chinese urban residents.The empirical results showed that the unconditional income elasticities of beef consumption at home vary between 0.169 for the lowincome group and 0.671 for the high-income group.The simulated results indicated that beef consumption is expected to increase by 12.0 to 38.8%in 10 years and by 18.6 to 70.5%in 15 years under distinct income growth scenarios.Our findings provide practical insights for policy makers and other stakeholders about future beef demand,such as potential opportunities embedded in rising beef demand for domestic producers and world beef exporters as well as the urgency of improving the supply chain resilience of beef in China.

New vision on the Relationship between Income and Water Withdrawal in Industry Sector

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial water withdrawal (IWW) and income in selected world countries. The issue is addressed by means of a smooth transition regression (STR) model on cross section data of 132 countries in 2006. The results confirm the nonlinearity of the link between IWW and income. According to the results, the income elasticity of IWW is a bell-shaped curve. Therefore, the policies and management processes in water sector including water allocation between activities and reigns should take into account the development degree and also focus on income level, water scarcity and the economic, social and ecological structure in each country.

Cross-country income disparity and its effect on carbon emissions

This study is motivated by the interesting relationship between the income Kuznets curve and the carbon Kuznets curve.This paper focuses on the interaction effects of income distribution and income per capita on CO_2 emissions using country group panel data over the period of 1980 to 2006 by employing fixed effects(FE),random effects(RE)and feasible generalized least squares(FGLS)estimation methods.The main findings are as follows.(1)There exists an inverted-U relationship between CO_2 emissions per capita and income per capita in all sample countries and high-income groups.(2)The cross-country income disparity has a negative effect on the average level of CO_2 emissions but a positive effect on the aggregate income elasticity of CO_2 emissions.(3)This negative effect of income disparity on the average level of CO_2emissions decreases along with the growth of per capita income.Thus,economic growth contributes to the reduction of this negative impact.

Intergenerational Transmission of Income Gap for Chinese Urban and Rural Households

An accurate understanding of the intergenerational transmission of income gap is the foundation for theoretical research and policy formulation to address this issue. This paper has employed the method of two sample instrumental variables to effectively integrate CHIP data and CFPS data and correct the temporal income bias, life-cycle bias and coresidence bias, which are common problems in existing studies, and investigated the tendencies of intergenerational transmission of income gap for China's urban and rural households between 2002 and 2012. Results of empirical study indicate that the intergenerational transmission of income gap for China's urban and rural households has been on the decline yet the level of intergenerational transmission is greater for urban residents than for rural residents. This level of intergenerational transmission of income gap in China is at a medium international level lower than that of countries like the United States, Brazil and Japan and higher than that of Sweden and Chinese Taiwan. Further analysis of the intergenerational mobility of various income groups suggests the following: the intergenerational solidification of the bottom and top income groups of urban residents has significantly improved, which is the source for the reduction of intergenerational transmission of income gap. Rural residents of bottom income group are vulnerable to falling into the trap of intergenerational transmission of low income. In order to mitigate the intergenerational transmission of income gap, efforts must be made to improve educational allowance policy and increase the opportunities for children from poor and underprivileged families to receive education and to eliminate the divide of labor markets to create equal job opportunities for each and every worker.

Rayleigh-type wave propagation in incompressible visco-elastic media under initial stress

Propagation of Rayleigh-type surface waves in an incompressible visco-elastic material over incompressible visco-elastic semi-infinite media under the effect of initial stresses is discussed. The dispersion equation is determined to study the effect of differ- ent types of parameters such as inhomogeneity, initial stress, wave number, phase velocity, damping factor, visco-elasticity, and incompressibility on the Rayleigh-type wave prop- agation. It is found that the affecting parameters have a significant effect on the wave propagation. Cardano＇s and Ferrari＇s methods are deployed to estimate the roots of dif- ferential equations associated with layer and semi-infinite media. The MATHEMATICA software is applied to explicate the effect of these parameters graphically.

教育是如何释放家庭消费潜力的?——来自CHFS的经验证据

受教育程度与家庭消费密切相关,本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2015年、2017年、2019年三期的数据,以家庭为基本单位,探讨了居民受教育程度对提高家庭消费积极性的有效影响,并从收入效应、非收入效应两个方面解释了作用机制。研究发现:①居民受教育水平的提高有助于提高家庭消费收入弹性,提升边际消费倾向。②其中收入效应是居民受教育程度对消费产生正向显著影响的关键。③相比于女性,男性受教育程度提高更能激发家庭消费的积极性;东中部地区教育对释放家庭潜力的影响程度相当且高于西部地区;农村地区会相对抑制受教育程度对居民购买力的发挥,导致其影响程度不如城镇地区高;教育水平对高、中、低收入家庭消费收入弹性的影响也各不相同。最终从教育的不同角度为如何释放消费潜力提出政策建议。

Women’s empowerment and food consumption:Evidence from female-headed households in Tanzania

Despite the growing recognition of women’s increasing role in the household and corresponding empowerment programs in sub-Saharan Africa,intensive research on the relationship between women’s influence and household food consumption is minimal.Using the most recent(2017-2018)national household survey data from Tanzania,this study examined the influence of women’s empowerment on household food consumption.First,we compared the monthly consumption of eight food categories between female-headed households(FHHs)and male-headed households(MHHs)using both descriptive statistics and the propensity score matching(PSM)method.Furthermore,we adopted the two-stage Linear Expenditure System and Almost Ideal Demand System model(LES-AIDS)to estimate income and price elasticities for the two household types.The results show that FHHs consume bread and cereals,fish,oils and fats,vegetables,and confectionery(sugar,jam,honey,chocolate,etc.)more than MHHs.Moreover,FHHs have a significantly higher income elasticity of demand for all food groups than MHHs.They are also more price elastic than MHHs in meat,fish,oils,fats,sugar,jam,honey,chocolate,etc.

人口老龄化、产业结构与劳动收入份额

基于1994—2017年中国省际面板数据,利用门槛效应模型,从产业结构视角考察了人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的非线性影响。研究发现:人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的影响呈现由负到正的非线性变化,产业结构发挥了重要调节作用,当第三产业与第二产业比值超过0.871时,人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的影响由负转正;在负向影响阶段,人口老龄化通过劳动资本的“相对价格”渠道与“相对数量”渠道对劳动收入份额产生影响,在正向影响阶段,“相对数量”渠道的作用不再显著,人口老龄化主要通过“相对价格”渠道对劳动收入份额产生影响;异质性检验发现,市场化程度和经济发展水平越高的地区,人口老龄化对劳动收入份额由负转正的影响越显著。

收入分布变化对中国城镇居民消费碳排放的影响

探究城镇居民收入增长对城镇居民消费碳排放产生的影响并进行政策模拟。利用1999-2020年中国30个省(市、自治区)城乡居民八大类消费品的数据,分析了城镇不同收入组居民的消费状况,随后模拟不同收入增长和转移支付下对居民消费碳排放的影响。研究发现,中国城镇居民的主要消费支出为食品和居住消费支出。模拟结果显示,合理的转移支付可以提高总体消费水平,并且缓解消费碳排放的增长,动态情况下实际消费碳排放较低。面对日益严重的收入差距和消费碳排放压力,合理进行收入分配和转移支付,可以提高中国居民总体消费水平,并缓解消费碳排放的快速增长。

消费需求与产业结构转型:基于中国家庭消费数据的微观经验研究

本文基于多部门增长模型和中国城镇住户调查数据估计消费者的偏好特征并分析消费需求影响中国产业结构转型的逻辑。研究表明,样本期内中国消费者的收入每增加1%,农产品、工业产品和服务业产品的需求量各增加约0.51%、1.11%和1.31%。相比于服务业产品,消费者对农产品的低偏好更为明显,这对中国产业结构转型有重要影响。反事实实验表明,1978—2018年需求侧因素(家庭消费)对中国产业结构转型的贡献比例大约为80%。最后,基于理论模型,本文探讨了消费需求对中国数字产业发展的作用。

双碳背景下中国天然气需求影响机制与趋势预测

文章分析天然气市场运行现状,深入探讨中国天然气需求特点,采用工具变量法和时间序列模型对其需求收入弹性与价格弹性进行估计,采用SARIMA模型预测未来中国天然气需求。需求弹性分析结果显示,天然气的收入弹性高于1,表明随着经济增长天然气的需求将呈现相应上升趋势。然而,天然气需求相对缺乏价格弹性,且受到煤炭替代效应的影响。在天然气价格上涨的情况下,市场消费者可能通过减少需求或选择煤炭替代能源以缓解能源成本压力。模型预测结果显示,未来天然气需求将持续增加。综合分析结果表明,天然气市场在未来将受到经济增长的推动,但需要谨慎应对价格上涨可能带来的替代效应。

房价上涨对初婚率的影响研究

2000年以来,中国房价高企,而初婚率自2013年后持续下降,对家庭和社会产生深远影响。房价上涨提高了住房因素在个人初婚决策中的影响,但是影响力度和结果在不同人群中不尽相同。通过构建适婚人群的效用函数和预算约束函数,把房价对初婚率的影响分解为价格效应和财富效应,发现由于住房需求价格弹性和消费收入弹性存在差异,价格效应与财富效应不同,总效应具有异质性。2000—2021年中国内地30个省级行政区住房需求价格弹性呈倒U型变动,消费收入弹性为正且波动不大,房价对初婚率的影响呈倒U型。分东部、中部、西部和东北四个地区的回归结果表明,各地区房价对初婚率的影响已经跨越拐点。应严格控制房价过快上涨,抑制房价上涨对初婚率的负面影响。

高技术服务业就业扩张的外部性研究:劳动力市场视角

在贯彻落实创新驱动发展战略背景下,城市高技术服务业的迅速发展对其他行业就业与收入的影响直接关系中国未来经济发展的可持续性.同时,中国不同区域的产业结构、人力资本结构与生活成本变动弹性等存在明显差异,会使高技术服务业发展与其他行业劳动力福利间关系有所不同.本文首先在理论上构建了考虑地区生活成本差异并反映高技术服务业与其他行业劳动力之间知识外溢的空间一般均衡模型.其次,基于城市层面的中观数据和流动人口动态监测调查微观数据进行分析.研究认为,其他行业对高技术服务业的就业弹性大约为0.58;高技术服务业就业扩张与本地其他行业劳动力的实际工资水平呈U形关系.再次,从城市住房供给弹性、产业结构合理化两个角度展开进一步分析,验证了生活成本与技术外溢对高技术服务业就业扩张外部性的重要影响.最后,将高技术服务业按照其技术附加值程度进一步划分,发现不同技术附加值的高技术服务业也存在差异性就业扩张外部效应.

西湖龙井茶的“身份”转变之谜探究——从消费需求弹性角度分析顶级明前西湖龙井茶如何从必需品转变为奢侈品的

西湖龙井被誉为中国的“绿茶皇后”,自2009年以来,西湖龙井茶的价格一直飙升且居高不下,本文根据三次实地调查,采用1980—2016年间的顶级明前西湖龙井茶的价格数据,运用经济学原理,对顶级明前西湖龙井茶的需求收入弹性系数进行测算,测算结果表明:近年来,顶级明前西湖龙井茶的“身份”已由生活必需品转变成奢侈品了。在此基础上,运用计量经济模型进行了实证分析,实证结果表明:顶级明前西湖龙井茶产量极少、供需缺口的日益增大,特(顶)级西湖龙井茶的人均消费量微乎其微是最主要的影响因素,而其它因素如中国人均收入水平、西湖龙井茶的拍卖价格、2012年后开始实施的反腐败抑价政策、西湖区独特的气候环境等都是辅助影响因素,本文也为“武夷大红袍”、“信阳毛尖”等的名茶价格研究提供案例佐证。

支出弹性、消费升级与消费不平等

探究消费升级与消费不平等问题对于促进共同富裕具有重要意义。基于CHIP 2013年和CHIP 2018年数据,结合近乎理想需求系统(AIDS)模型等实证考察了我国居民消费升级与消费不平等状况。研究发现,样本期间中等收入及以下群体的消费处于升级状态;消费不平等呈现下降趋势,且主要源于高弹性商品消费不平等的下降。G·Fields分解结果表明,持久性收入差距是影响消费不平等的最主要因素,且对高弹性商品支出不平等和城镇地区消费不平等的贡献更大,暂时性收入差距对消费不平等的贡献度也相对较高;城乡差距、教育差距和家庭规模差异对于消费不平等同样具有较大的解释力度。因此,缩小城乡发展差距、教育差距和提高居民收入水平对降低消费不平等具有重要作用。

社会保险如何影响代际收入流动

优化收入分配、促进代际收入流动是推进共同富裕的必然要求。本文基于2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据,采用代际收入弹性和代际收入百分位排序关联系数测量代际收入流动,实证检验社会保险对代际收入流动的影响。研究发现,城镇基本养老保险、农村基本养老保险和城镇居民医保显著抑制代际收入流动,新农合对代际收入流动具有显著正向影响,且这种影响在低收入父代家庭和城镇地区更加显著。采用工具变量法控制内生性后的研究结论依然稳健。作用机制分析表明,社会保险通过人力资本、财富资本和借贷资本三种渠道影响代际收入流动。基于实证结论,本文提出相关政策建议以增强社会保险的反贫困和收入再分配功能,进而夯实代际收入流动的物质基础,助力共同富裕和中国式现代化建设。

基于ELES模型的中部五省饮食消费结构变化研究

饮食消费是人们日常生活的基础,研究居民饮食消费结构对优化农牧业生产、激发消费市场具有重要意义。本文以中部五省居民饮食消费结构为研究对象,以扩展线性支出系统模型为理论基础,利用SPSS等软件对中部五省居民人均可支配收入、饮食消费结构等进行比较分析。结果表明:(1)中部五省人均可支配收入水平在逐年提升,但在省际之间存在差异。(2)中部五省居民饮食消费中边际消费倾向最大的种类普遍为高品质的饮食如奶及奶制品类,大多数超过0.01。(3)中部五省居民对肉禽蛋水产品类的基本需求普遍较高,均在0.35以上,属于刚需饮食品,干鲜瓜果类较低。(4)各类饮食消费受价格变动影响不同,价格弹性较小的普遍为粮油类。(5)饮食消费交叉价格弹性均为负值,各类饮食之间属于互补品。

延迟退休对个人基本养老金收入的影响——基于拓展OLG模型的研究

文章通过构建延迟退休政策下职工参与基本养老保险的拓展OLG模型发现,延迟退休主要通过影响人口出生率、劳均资本、基本养老金缴费期限和领取期限对个人基本养老金收入产生作用。在此基础上进行数值模拟发现,当资本产出弹性高于开区间(0.37,0.38)内的某一阈值时,延迟退休将导致个人基本养老金收入减少;当资本产出弹性低于开区间(0.32,0.33)内的某一阈值时,结论则相反;当资本产出弹性处于闭区间[0.33,0.37]时,延迟退休对个人基本养老金收入的影响呈现先负向后正向,且随着资本产出弹性水平的提高,延迟退休对个人基本养老金收入的影响出现由负转正,所需要的延迟退休年份数也将提高。因此,我国在出台延迟退休政策时,应配套相应的福利政策,适当提高养老金给付比例,扩大资本积累,并及时监测经济运行中的资本产出弹性。

Income and Price Elasticities of China's Exports

The appearance of new product varieties and improvements in the quality of goods have both played key roles in the rapid growth of China＇s exports. However, these two important elements have not been formally integrated into the demand equations for China＇s exports. As we demonstrate in this paper, income elasticity will be underestimated if new varieties of goods and quality improvements are omitted in price index and quantity index calculations, which are necessary for estimating the export demand function. Moreover, the faster new product varieties enter export markets, the greater the underestimation will be. In this paper, we develop an export demand equation that takes into account newproduct varieties and improvements in quality, and then calculate the demand function for China＇s exports using the data from 1992 to 2006. According to our estimation, the short-term income elasticity of demand for China ＂s exports is approximately 2.34, and the short-term price elasticity is approximately-0. 65. Our estimation predicts an increase in China＇s export value in the case of an RMB appreciation or export rebate rates reduction in the short term, due to the low price elasticity of China＇s exports, whose absolute value is less than 1. Our findings are novel and could have significant policy implications.