Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projec...Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.展开更多
From the point of view of the basic option model, enterprise investment decision making under uncertainty is studied based on the martingale method. The study shows that investment options and yields are increasing fu...From the point of view of the basic option model, enterprise investment decision making under uncertainty is studied based on the martingale method. The study shows that investment options and yields are increasing functions of time, and when the option equals the yield, the investment opportunity cost is the least, which is the appropriate time for the enterprise investment. Under the condition that the investment yield is an increasing function of time, the investment opportunity cost is also an increasing function of time after the time when the investment option equals the investment yield. So the investors should invest as soon as possible, otherwise they should stop investment forever in this project. It is impossible to acquire more investment yields by indefinitely delaying the investment. Meanwhile, the study also shows that the martingale method, used widely in financial investment theory, is a powerful tool for enterprise investment decision making.展开更多
Other than traditional valuation methods, the real option approach captures the flexibility inherent in investment decisions to make the optimal decision of a finn in isolation from its competitors. In reality, howeve...Other than traditional valuation methods, the real option approach captures the flexibility inherent in investment decisions to make the optimal decision of a finn in isolation from its competitors. In reality, however, the actions or decisions of competing fn-ms （practical or potential） often affect each other＇s investment opportunity. The value of the project for the firms is assumed to follow a Geometric Brownian motion, and the model combines game theory and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. This paper characterizes the resulting Nash equilibrium under different assumptions on the information that the firms have each other＇s valuation for the project.展开更多
基金supported from the National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2011ZX05030
文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.
文摘From the point of view of the basic option model, enterprise investment decision making under uncertainty is studied based on the martingale method. The study shows that investment options and yields are increasing functions of time, and when the option equals the yield, the investment opportunity cost is the least, which is the appropriate time for the enterprise investment. Under the condition that the investment yield is an increasing function of time, the investment opportunity cost is also an increasing function of time after the time when the investment option equals the investment yield. So the investors should invest as soon as possible, otherwise they should stop investment forever in this project. It is impossible to acquire more investment yields by indefinitely delaying the investment. Meanwhile, the study also shows that the martingale method, used widely in financial investment theory, is a powerful tool for enterprise investment decision making.
文摘Other than traditional valuation methods, the real option approach captures the flexibility inherent in investment decisions to make the optimal decision of a finn in isolation from its competitors. In reality, however, the actions or decisions of competing fn-ms （practical or potential） often affect each other＇s investment opportunity. The value of the project for the firms is assumed to follow a Geometric Brownian motion, and the model combines game theory and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. This paper characterizes the resulting Nash equilibrium under different assumptions on the information that the firms have each other＇s valuation for the project.
