Initial Analysis on the Effect of High-low Altitude Jet Stream on Heavy Precipitation in Guangxi

By using the routine observation data,a heavy precipitation process which happened in Guangxi on May 27,2006 was analyzed.The results that this heavy precipitation occurred in the common coordination weather system which included the high-altitude trough,the shear line and the ground cold front.The ascent branch of subtropical longitude circle circulation and the polar front jet stream longitude circle circulation had the important role for the formation of rainstorm area.The coupling effect of southerly jet,low-altitude westerly jet and high-altitude westerly jet in the boundary layer was the important reason of rainstorm occurrence.

Impacts of Two Types of Northward Jumps of the East Asian Upper-tropospheric Jet Stream in Midsummer on Rainfall in Eastern China

The East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream （EAJS） typically jumps north of 45~N in midsummer. These annual northward jumps are mostly classified into two dominant types： the first type corresponds to the enhanced westerly to the north of the EAJS＇s axis （type A）, while the second type is related to the weakened westerly within the EAJS＇s axis （type B）. In this study, the impacts of these two types of northward jumps on rainfall in eastern China are investigated. Our results show that rainfall significantly increases in northern Northeast China and decreases in the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys, as well as in North China, during the type A jump. As a result of the type B jump, rainfall is enhanced in North China and suppressed in the Yangtze River valley. The changes in rainfall in eastern China during these two types of northward jumps are mainly caused by the northward shifts of the ascending air flow that is directly related to the EAJS. Concurrent with the type A （B） jump, the EAJS-related ascending branch moves from the Yangtze-Huai River valley to northern Northeast （North） China when the EAJS＇s axis jumps from 40~N to 55~N （50~N）. Meanwhile, the type A jump also strengthens the Northeast Asian low in the lower troposphere, leading to more moisture transport to northern Northeast China. The type B jump, however, induces a northwestward extension of the lower-tropospheric western North Pacific subtropical high and more moisture transport to North China.

Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large areas.Skillful subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great importance.Using two dynamical forecasting systems,one from the Beijing Climate Center(BCC-CSM2-HR)and the other from the Met Office(GloSea5),this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off lows.Both models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows,but they underestimate the intensity.The skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in advance.Further examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train,rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows,but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage processes.The underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.

Analysis of An Infrequent Regional Heavy Rainfall Weather Process in Heilongjiang Province in June of 2009

From June 18th to June 19th of 2009,Heilongjiang Province was hit by the regional rainstorm rarely paralleled in history.According to the findings based upon the conventional observation data,the precipitation occurred under the double-blocking situation of Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk.The main influencing systems were the upper vortex and northward low-pressure that came from Hetao area,accompanied by the delivery of high and low level jet stream.The results showed that the evolvement of blocking high,transfer of water vapor and configuration of high and low level jet stream were the key factors resulting in the rainfall process.

高燃压中型运载火箭发射地面低高度排导技术

综合高燃压中型运载火箭高密度发射燃气流地面排导需求及烧蚀风险分析,提出基于地面双面导流装置与高位挡流墙结合的地面低高度排导技术方案。利用火箭发射燃气动力学研究总结的燃气流膨胀特性以及导流型面设计方法,解决了地面低高度排导技术涉及的地面导流装置导流型面气动设计以及尺度控制两个关键问题。地面低高度排导技术方案设计与燃气流场瞬态仿真多轮叠代,实现了燃气流排导烧蚀范围合理控制,避免了燃气流低高度排导烧蚀反溅影响箭体。地面低高度排导技术采用专利支撑的喷水冷却防护方案实现高燃压中型运载火箭发射燃气流强烧蚀环境发射系统、发射设施综合防护。基于喷流缩比试验相似性控制方法研制了1∶10比例喷流缩比试验系统,通过喷流缩比试验验证确认高燃压中型运载火箭发射燃气流能够实现地面低高度安全、顺畅排导,同时与发射台、导流装置结构融合的阵列喷水方案能够行之有效解决高燃压中型运载火箭地面低高度排导强烧蚀难题。

PROPAGATION OF 30—60 DAY LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR INFLUENCE UPON THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES JET STREAM DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER

Based on daily ECMWF gridpoint data of two winters during 1981—1983 including an ENSO year,propagation of low frequency oscillations(LFO)during Northern Hemisphere winters and their influences upon 30—60 day oscillations of the subtropical jet stream are studied with the sta- tistical methods as complex empirical orthogonal function(CEOF)and so on.Results show that in the winter of a normal year(1981—1982),30—60 day oscillations in the subtropical zone are mainly in the northern and southern flanks of exit region of jet stream.In the ENSO year(1982— 1983),they are mainly in the vicinity of entrance and exit regions of jet stream.Intraseasonal changes of subtropical jet stream manifested themselves as latitudinal fluctuation or longitudinal progression or regression of about 40 day period.There are marked differences between propagat- ing passages of low frequency modes responsible for changes of subtropical jet stream in the normal year(1981—1982)and in the ENSO year(1982—1983).Changes of oscillation amplitude show obvious phases.In general,the one in late winter is stronger than that in early winter,strongest one occurs in February.

高海拔下内燃机车车顶热流输运特性研究

内燃机车车顶排放的高温浮射流会对列车外流场分布和下游设备的散热性能产生影响,研究高温浮射流对车体周围气动特性的影响有助于评估下游设备的散热环境状况。采用三维、非定常、可压缩雷诺时均Navier-Stokes方法的Realizable k-ε两方程湍流模型,对5节编组高速列车进行数值仿真模拟计算,并与实车试验结果进行对比验证。此外,还分析了不同海拔高度、列车运行速度下的高温浮射流扩散效应。结果表明:随着海拔高度升高,大气密度减小,柴油机排放的高温气体所受的惯性力加强,气流向上运动趋势增加,列车表面最高温度降低。当运行环境的海拔高度由3000 m上升至5000 m时,内燃机车车顶最高温度由117℃下降到86℃。而列车运行速度加快致使柴油机释放的高温气流更贴近列车表面,导致车顶表面最高温度上升。当列车以80 km/h运行在3000 m海拔高度时,列车车顶最高温度为81℃,列车运行速度提高到160 km/h时,最高温度为143℃。研究阐明了高海拔、低气压、低密度的环境中,内燃动力车驱动列车以不同运行速度在明线运行时,柴油机出风口产生的高温气流对列车外流场气动特性的影响机制。

逆向喷流对可回收火箭气动特性的影响研究

可回收火箭返回时,需要依靠发动机进行点火减速制动,为得到逆向喷流条件下箭体气动性能的变化规律,通过对低空和高空两次点火过程进行数值仿真,分析来流马赫数和攻角对箭体气动性能的影响,同时开展单喷管、多喷管喷流条件下的仿真研究。结果表明,低空状态,逆向喷流会导致全箭轴向力系数绝对值减小,且喷流数目越多,轴向力系数绝对值越小。小攻角条件下,逆向喷流会引起全箭压心大幅前移,随着开机台数增加,压心前移越多。高空条件下,喷流膨胀区和来流存在强烈的相互干扰,导致轴向力系数减小明显,其绝对值在0.04以内,0°~10°攻角内箭体法向力系数绝对值小于0.1,随着来流静压增加,法向力系数绝对值小于0.1的攻角区间减小。

Analysis on A Synoptic Process of Freezing Rain in Anshan City

Based on MICAPS(Meteorological Information Combine Analysis and Process System) and observational data in Anshan Observatory,the freezing rain event occurred rarely in Anshan on February 24 in 2010 was analyzed.The results showed that there existed the inversion layer from the ground to 850 hpa level even to 700 hPa level when the local surface temperature was below 0 ℃.The temperature stratification structure of coldness-warmth-coldness was prevailing from the upper level to the ground with the existence of the ice melting layer of a certain thickness.Thus the freezing event occurred in Anshan.

西北干旱区机场低空风切变基本特征分析

为提升对西北干旱区低空风切变特征的认识,对该区域民航飞行安全提供可靠的气象服务保障,以新疆为例,利用机场语音方式航空器报告、机场例行观测实况报文、维萨拉(Vaisala)气象自动观测系统数据、飞机机载探测资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)第五代大气再分析资料(ERA5)对新疆区域17个机场接收的低空风切变报告进行统计,并对喀什机场一次典型低空风切变事件进行分析。结果表明:新疆地区低空风切变四季均有出现,夏季出现频率最高,低空风切变在90~300 m高度范围内频发,主要集中发生在中午至傍晚时段,中等强度的低空风切变出现频次最多,小机型飞机更易遭遇低空风切变。低空风切变发生时机场常受500 hPa西风气流型、低涡型、低槽型天气系统影响,且多伴有低空急流、地面大风及对流云等情况,特殊的地形环境也是影响新疆部分机场低空风切变频发的原因之一。对喀什机场一次典型低空风切变个例分析后发现,在低槽型天气系统影响下,飞机进近和复飞过程中遭遇了强风切变,包括强水平风向、风速的切变和强垂直风切变,在中小尺度系统影响下飞机在下降过程中极有可能遭遇下击暴流,从而引发强低空风切变。

清远一次极端龙舟水的中尺度系统演变分析

利用多源观测数据和ERA5再分析资料,对2022年6月20到21日发生在清远的一次极端特大暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明:(1)该次强降水是在200 hPa分流辐散的背景下,由低涡切变配合其前侧西南急流缓慢东移经过清远造成的。(2)强降水发生前大气层结已处于极不稳定状态,低层来自孟加拉湾和南海的水汽不断在清远市上空辐合,为暴雨的发生提供充足的水汽条件和不稳定能量。(3)强降水的触发机制主要是前期广西降水造成的冷池与低空急流带来的暖湿气团形成的温度锋区和地面辐合线;地形的抬升作用和狭管效应,对降水起到增幅作用。(4)该次强降水主要有2个低质心的热带海洋型中尺度对流系统先后影响发生。

Genetic Analysis of a Heavy Rainstorm on June 29,2006 in Henan Province

Based on conventional radiosonde data, surface encrypted observation data and so forth, the diagnostic analysis of a heavy rainstorm in the central and east of Henan Province on June 29, 2006 was carried out from the aspects of its large-scale background, environmental field and physical characteristics. The results showed that under the effect of a favorable large-scale environmental field, the rainstorm was caused by a mesoscale system. The high-east and low-west circulation pattern, the eastward movement of high-level low trough, low-level shear lines and strengthening of low-level jet streams directly resulted in the occurrence of the heavy rainstorm.

面向低空预警雷达的信号处理控制平台设计与实现

为应对以民用无人机为代表的低小慢目标“黑飞”“滥飞”所带来的低空安全威胁以及巡航导弹、战术导弹所带来的低空军事威胁,文中引入数字波束合成技术,设计并实现了一种面向低空预警雷达的信号处理控制平台,该平台具有实时性强、运算量大、传输速率高等特点。通过选用高速光纤传输与串行总线VPX技术,同时采用高性能模数转换器、超大规模现场可编程门阵列及高速专用数字信号处理芯片,实现了此平台的硬件架构设计,并在此平台上实现了一种基于数据流驱动的软件信号处理方案。得益于灵活的系统架构和丰富的硬件资源,该信号处理控制平台可以适应新技术的快速应用,便于低空预警雷达功能的升级扩展及性能的进一步提升,有效应对低空威胁。

2021年苏州与武汉两地龙卷的环境条件与雷达特征对比分析

基于上海青浦双偏振雷达、武汉多普勒天气雷达、新一代天气雷达组网拼图、地面加密自动气象站和ERA5再分析等数据,对2021年5月14日夜间苏州、武汉相继出现的致灾严重的龙卷天气过程,从天气背景、地面触发机制、雷达探测特征和环境参数等方面进行了对比分析,结果表明:(1)苏州、武汉两地龙卷均发生在西南暖湿气流强迫背景下,低层高温高湿,均受到低空急流和超低空急流影响,但两地龙卷发生位置与对应的急流位置不同,苏州龙卷西侧对应东侧急流出口区,武汉龙卷正好对应西侧急流出口区;(2)苏州龙卷是由阵风锋引起的辐合线配合强度适宜的弱冷池触发的;武汉龙卷发生时地面存在中尺度辐合中心和弱冷池;(3)两地龙卷均发生在孤立右移超级单体伴随低层中气旋突然加强之时,龙卷涡旋特征(TVS)分别出现在苏州龙卷和武汉龙卷发生前2 min和3 min;(4)有别于美国龙卷发生的环境条件,苏州龙卷发生在高的对流有效位能、较低的抬升凝结高度和对流抑制能量以及中等偏弱的风暴相对螺旋度和垂直风切变条件下;武汉龙卷则发生在弱的对流有效位能、较低的抬升凝结高度、较高的对流抑制能量以及强的风暴相对螺旋度和垂直风切变条件下。比较而言,两地龙卷发生前和发生时,苏州龙卷的热力条件较好、动力条件中等偏弱,而武汉龙卷的动力条件较好、热力条件偏弱,可见两地龙卷均发生在热力和动力条件互补的环境下。

急流和地形对阳江一次特大暴雨的影响

利用中尺度数值模式WRF对2020年6月1日的阳江特大暴雨进行模拟和分析。结果表明:WRF的模拟结果很好地再现了该次暴雨的过程。通过控制试验和地形敏感性试验对比,发现将阳江及附近地区的山地移除后,降水区远离阳江地区,发生在粤西北山区。进一步分析表明,边界层急流为这次降水的发生发展提供了充沛水汽的前提条件。阳江附近山地对边界层急流的阻挡和抬升作用是降水发生发展的关键因素:一方面地形阻挡边界层急流增强相当位温水平梯度,增强对流不稳定性;另一方面,地形对边界层急流的抬升作用增强辐合上升运动产生对流。同时,边界层急流出口区配合低空急流入口区的抽吸作用,导致降水系统发展强盛。

漳州市中南部一次大暴雨过程的成因分析

文章利用常规气象探测资料、雷达资料、自动站等多源资料,对2022年7月5日至6日发生在漳州市中南部沿海的大暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明:(1)台风“暹芭”外围环流、低空急流维持、边界层辐合维持是此次沿海大暴雨的主要影响系统;(2)低空急流为强降水提供了源源不断的水汽输送,配合特殊地形的摩擦、强迫作用,在诏安、云霄境内形成了明显增幅作用;(3)降水回波呈现明显“列车效应”,且回波方向平行于移动方向,低质心和最大反射率因子高度低的特征说明此轮降水属于热带海洋型降水。

2019年9月12—14日陇南市持续性暴雨天气成因分析

本文对2019年9月12—14日陇南市出现的一次持续性暴雨天气过程的成因进行了分析。结果表明:此次强降水天气过程中副热带高压外围有较强的西南气流稳定维持,同时700 hPa存在明显的强风速带的辐合,低层强烈辐合为暴雨的发生、发展提供了动力条件;对物理量场分析发现,这次持续暴雨过程中,中低层有明显的湿层及水汽辐合,为降水提供了充足的水汽条件;对流云团演变特征表明,此次持续性强降水是在青海东南部的对流云与四川北部的对流云系东移合并加强后逐渐减弱的过程中发生的,具有明显的局地性。

一次东北冷涡暴雨的成因分析

利用常规观测资料、MICAPS资料、NCEP/NCAR1°×1°逐6 h再分析资料,从热力动力条件、层结条件等方面,对2022年6月4—5日内蒙古东南部地区的一次东北冷涡暴雨过程进行诊断分析,得出产生暴雨的天气尺度和中尺度系统特征。结果表明:此次暴雨是由东北冷涡前部暖湿切变造成的,鄂霍次克海阻塞高压阻挡,使冷涡移动缓慢,冷涡系统影响时间长、降水量增大。暖湿空气在切变处强烈辐合,与高低空急流耦合产生的次级环流上升支重合,地面中尺度切变线为暴雨云团的发展与维持提供了有利条件。低层强辐合区与高层强辐散区重合,为暴雨产生提供了动力条件;低空偏南急流为暴雨提供了充沛的水汽条件,同时低层增温增湿使大气层结不稳定。

大连地区一次副热带高压边缘暖锋暴雨机制分析

利用常规气象观测资料、自动站逐时降雨量资料以及NCEP逐6 h再分析资料(1°×1°),对2020年8月31日大连地区一次副热带高压(简称“副高”)边缘暖锋暴雨过程的环境场特征和动力、热力机制进行分析。结果表明:暴雨发生在远距离台风活动的有利背景下,由副高、500 h Pa高空槽和850 hPa暖式切变线共同影响所致。大连地区处于副高边缘,台风造成副高西伸北抬,副高和台风外围的偏南暖湿气流共同为暴雨区输送充足的水汽条件,为此次暴雨的产生提供了有利的大尺度环流背景场。暴雨发生前大气对流不稳定,深厚的湿层和暖云层以及较低的云底高度,是产生较高降雨效率的有利条件。850 hPa比湿>14 g/kg,超过区域暴雨阈值;近地层出现强水汽通量辐合中心并配合上升运动区,对强降水的预报具有明显指示意义。高空急流提供强辐散“抽吸”作用,对流层中下层西南风的不断加强和向下传播出现低空和超低空急流,高、低空急流耦合形成较强的上升运动,触发不稳定能量释放,产生强降水。超低空急流的出现对此次暴雨的产生、发展和维持发挥关键的作用。暴雨区上空存在广义位温等值线密集带和陡立区,由于凝结潜热释放而引起广义位温高值区呈漏斗状向下伸展,中低层强暖平流促使湿斜压性显著增强,有利于暖锋锋生,从而导致整层饱和大气的抬升,最终产生强降雨天气。

低空切变线与低空急流共同影响下浙江梅汛期暴雨落区分型

基于国家和区域自动气象站实况雨量资料、ERA5再分析资料、MICAPS常规观测资料,筛选出2015—2021年浙江地区12次梅汛期暴雨天气过程,对其暴雨落区进行分型,并对每一型暴雨影响系统的配置与变动情况进行分析总结。结果表明:浙江梅汛期暴雨落区与西太平洋副热带高压的变动、低空切变线的类型与强度、低空急流的强度和变动、高低空系统之间的相互配置密切相关,可以分为3类,即低空急流附近型、低空切变线附近型、低空急流与低空切变线之间型。