Research on the Relationship between Energy Minerals Exploitation and Economic Growth： Johansen Co-integration Analysis and Granger Causality Test

The purpose of this paper is to puts forward suggestions for the sustainable development of mineral resources by combining the benefit of economy from mineral resources with the introduction of concept of circular economic development.

Co-integration Analysis of the Relationship between New Product Output and R&D Investment in China’s Pharmaceutical Industry

Objective To study the possible relationship between the output of new products in China’s pharmaceutical industry and the investment in research and development(R&D),and to provide a theoretical basis for the decision-making of relevant enterprises and institutions.Methods The econometric software Stata 14 was used to perform unit root test on the relevant data.Then,a co-integration regression equation was established after stabilization,which was analyzed through co-integration test(E-G two-step method).Results and Conclusion There is a long-term equilibrium and short-term error correction relationship between the output of new products and the investment of R&D funds in China’s pharmaceutical industry.During the lagging periods from 1 to 6,R&D investment is the Granger reason for the output of new products.The investment of R&D funds has a positive effect on the output of new products and the effect is significant.Therefore,more investment should be made in R&D to enhance the output of new products.

中国贸易顺差的结构特征及成因研究——基于两贸易品跨期均衡消费理论的实证分析

本文首先从商品耐用性角度考察中国贸易顺差的内部结构特征,然后通过建立两贸易品跨期均衡消费理论模型和相应的计量模型,对中国耐用和非耐用品贸易收支变动原因进行了实证研究。结果表明,非耐用品贸易顺差是中国贸易顺差的首要来源,但其增速远低于耐用贸易品。从长期看,国内实际资本存量快速扩张是推动耐用和非耐用品贸易顺差不断走高的根本因素,国内实际消费支出上升和非耐用品跨时价格下降是抑制非耐用品贸易顺差的有力因素,而国内实际消费支出上升对耐用品贸易顺差不存在显著抑制作用。本文还分析了相关变量间的短期动态关系,并根据长短期的分析结果,提出相应的政策建议。

科技发展投资驱动下的一次能源消费最优控制模型

为研究科技发展投资对于一次能源消费控制的驱动作用,首先构建一次能源消费的IPAT模型和经济发展水平的C-D生产函数模型,运用Johansen-Juselius协整检验方法确定IPAT模型和C-D生产函数模型的参数,在此基础上构建基于最优控制理论的一次能源消费最优控制模型,使用该模型获得一次能源消费的最优化路径和科技发展投资的最优控制路径,分析科技发展投资对于一次能源消费的驱动效果。在我国"十三五"期间经济发展约束下,运用该模型研究我国"十三五"期间科技发展投资驱动下的一次能源消费的优化问题,研究结果显示:在科技水平不断提升的前提下,我国一次能源消费量在理论上可以呈现不断降低的理想发展趋势,2020年下降到330 940万t标准煤,同时我国科技发展投资应保持年均26.6%的高速增长,在科技发展的驱动下,我国全社会固定资产投资的GDP占比也可以呈现不断降低的趋势,从而实现科技发展驱动下的集约式发展模式。

我国上市公司的“异序融资”:基于债权—利润的非线性关系

权衡理论和优序融资理论均肯定了"内源—债务—权益"的融资次序,然而我国的上市公司存在"异序"现象,偏好股权融资。采用1996-2014年债权融资和利润的年度数据进行了Johansen协整分析,研究了债权融资与上市公司利润的变化关系。发现上市公司的债权融资与利润存在非线性关系,一开始利润随着债权融资比重的增加而上升,但在40%左右时出现转折,债权融资的上升引起利润下降,这一结果解释了"异序融资"的部分成因,在此基础上给出了一系列合理化建议。

Economics,fundamentals,technology,finance,speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices:an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.

Empirical Analysis on Effect of Agricultural Financial Investment on Increase of Farmers' Income

On the basis of economic data from 1978 to 2006,the co-integration theory is applied to discuss the relation between agricultural financial investment and farmers' income.The statistic AR model is obtained.Then,it makes pulse response analysis in combination with principle of pulse response analysis.The regression results show that support in agricultural production,various agricultural operating expenses and three types of costs for agricultural science and technology are favorable to farmers' income,while expenditure in agricultural capital construction and rural relief costs hinder increase of farmers' income.The results of pulse response analysis indicate that the change in support of agricultural production and various agricultural operating expenses have positive impact on farmers' net income,and the impact is greater and greater from the second year;the response of expenditure in agricultural capital construction and rural relief cost is positive in the beginning and starts to fluctuate from the third year;the pulse response of three types of costs for agricultural science and technology is negative,lasts about five periods,and then turns to positive impact.Finally,combining characteristics of China's financial support for agriculture,it concludes that the scale,proportion and structure of financial support for agriculture are quite improper.

中国贸易顺差成因研究——基于跨时最优消费理论的实证分析

本文首先在跨时最优消费理论的基础上,建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型和相应的计量模型,然后运用Johansen协整分析法、Granger因果检验法及VEC模型对中国在1978—2006年间贸易顺差的成因进行实证研究。结果表明:长期而言,中国实际资本存量和实际资本使用成本与贸易顺差均具有显著的正相关关系而中国居民实际财富和政府实际消费支出与贸易顺差显著负相关;中国实际资本存量高速增长和居民实际财富缓慢爬升是贸易顺差快速增加的主要原因。短期内,实际资本存量与居民实际财富的变化对贸易收支的影响具有一定的滞后性,甚至会出现与长期关系相反的现象。根据上述分析结果,本文提出了相关的政策建议。