Research on the Relationship between Energy Minerals Exploitation and Economic Growth： Johansen Co-integration Analysis and Granger Causality Test

The purpose of this paper is to puts forward suggestions for the sustainable development of mineral resources by combining the benefit of economy from mineral resources with the introduction of concept of circular economic development.

Analysis of services trade and employment in China by co-integration and causality

This article describes a study by co-integration test and Granger causality test on the relationships between China's services trades and employment using the data of services trade from the WTO website and the employment data from China Statistic Yearbook for the years from 1982 to 2003. Co-integration test showed that 1% increase in export value and import value of services created respectively 0.205% and 0.068 7% more job opportunities in the service sector. Both export and import of services impacted positively on employment in service industry, and export did more than import. However, in the short run, the impacts of services export and import on employment in service industry were both very small, though positive; and the impacts of employment in service industry on both export and import of services were very big, but not stable. Granger causality test indicated that employment in service industry was a Granger cause of services export. The findings highlight the importance of facilitating services import and reducing import barriers, and suggest that the competitiveness of China's labor- intensive services trade can be exploited to boost services export and help employment in service sector, and that the structure of services trade should be optimized by shifting from labor-intensive to knowledge-and technology-intensive services thus to enhance China's competitiveness of services export.

Co-integration-based analysis of energy assurance for steady economic growth in China

By applying co-integration analysis,the Granger causality test and an error correction model,the dependency between the energy consumption and the gross domestic product of China was examined.In a further step an analysis was done to establish a correlation between the economic growth of different industries and China's energy consumption.An evidence-based study showed that a co-integration relationship exists between the gross energy consumption and the GDP of China and that the two variables possess bi-directional causality.The energy consumption for the secondary industry has a markedly stimulative effect to the economic growth.This paper also uses an error correction model(ECM)to explain the short-term behavior of energy demands.

基于Johansen屈服模式的胶合木节点标准火灾承载力模型

开发了节点常温力学有限元模型和高温下热传递有限元模型,基于Johansen屈服理论提出了节点常温及火灾下的承载力计算方法。通过随温度变化的销槽承压强度双折线折减关系,得到销槽承压强度随螺栓长度的积分,并基于3种主要破坏模式的力学分析,得到不同持荷比下节点的耐火时间,计算结果与试验值较为接近。

中国原木进口的需求弹性及预测——基于月度时间序列的Johansen协整估计

鉴于中国原木进口需求弹性的参数值信息有限,利用月度时间序列数据构建中国原木进口需求函数,在Johansen协整框架下展开计量分析。向量误差修正模型的估计结果显示:中国原木的进口需求对所有变量都是缺乏弹性的,且在1%的统计水平上显著;中国国内经济产出和实际进口价格的弹性分别为0.86(±0.05)和-0.68(±0.15),短期对长期均衡的偏离的调整系数为0.61。基于估计参数的预测结果显示,受经济新常态的影响,2020年中国原木进口量约为5067万m3~6464万m3,并呈现平稳增长的态势。

金融行业发展对经济增长的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

基于金融发展服务于经济增长视角,构建两个VAR模型,选择1978年到2022年的GDP、M2、社会融资规模、股票成交额、债券成交额、期货成交额以及保险公司保费的时间面板数据分别实证分析了金融及其行业发展与经济增长的影响。主要分析了各指标与经济增长指标的Granger因果关系、Johansen协整关系以及脉冲响应函数等情况。通过分析发现,金融发展是经济增长的Granger原因,金融各行业发展均不是经济增长的Granger原因;经济发展受自身影响同时,金融及其行业发展变化对其也产生不小影响,债券成交额、M2、保险公司保费等影响较大。基于分析结论,提出了监管货币流通、畅通融通渠道、加强股票市场调整和监管、扩大保险业务范围、严厉整顿债券和期货市场等5条建议。

人民币汇率波动对中国进出口贸易的影响——基于Johansen协整检验和误差修正模型的实证研究

本文利用我国1980-2005年的年度数据,运用Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析等计量经济方法对进出口贸易与汇率波动的深层关系进行了实证研究,文中得出的结论是:进出口与汇率存在长期协整关系,汇率波动对出口贸易的影响较大,而对进口贸易的影响比较微弱。

Research on the Relationship between Income and Consumption of the Urban Residents in Hunan Province on the Basis of Error Correction Model

By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.

Relationship Between Agricultural Credits and Agricultural Economy Based on Error Correct Model in Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the center of agriculture economy.However,the low comparative advantage in agriculture and pursuit of the capital interests which aggravate the conflicts of supply and demand of agricultural funds.Lacking of fund is the main factor that constrains the development of agricultural economy.In order to analyze the economic effect of agricultural credits on agricultural economy,an error correction model was set up to research the relationship between them,which based on the least square methods.Through the study of the contribution from agricultural credits to total value of agricultural out-put,the empirical evidence for developing the rural financial vigorously was provided,in order to promote the agricultura leconomic development.

Influence of Sino-US Agricultural Trade on China’s Total Agricultural Output Value Based on Cointegration Model

According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state.

珊瑚钙质砂导热系数测定及预测模型研究

利用热探针法测得了不同含水率条件下珊瑚钙质砂的导热系数,采用Johansen模型和Chen模型对珊瑚钙质砂的导热系数进行了预测计算,并结合试验实测值对模型参数进行修正,尝试寻找出合适的预测模型对珊瑚钙质砂导热系数进行有效的模拟计算。研究结果表明:珊瑚钙质砂的导热系数随含水率的增加呈现出线性递增趋势;Johansen模型和Chen模型的预测值均与试验实测值存在较大偏差;改进的Johansen模型和Chen模型预测值均与试验实测值较为接近,均方根误差值(Root-mean-square error)小于0.05,可用来预测珊瑚钙质砂的导热系数,且计算精度较高。

江西省农业产业结构与碳排放关系实证研究

基于2005—2020年的江西省11个地级市的面板数据,通过Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型(VECM)、格兰杰因果检验,研究了农业产业结构与农业碳排放之间的关系。结果表明:农业产业结构、农业人口、城镇化率、农村电气化水平与农业碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系,农业人口呈现负的推动作用,农业产业结构、城镇化率、农村电气化水平呈现正的推动作用,农业产业结构与城镇化率在推动农业碳排放增长中发挥了主要作用;在向量误差修正模型中,农业产业结构、城镇化率、农村电气化水平在短期内对农业碳排放具有正向影响,农业人口在短期内对农业碳排放具有负向影响;在格兰杰因果检验中,农业产业结构与农业碳排放存在互为因果的格兰杰关系,农业产业结构会促进农业碳排放的增加,农业碳排放会在一定程度上影响农业产业结构。因此,需要从优化农业产业结构的角度出发,确立农业碳减排目标,减少农业碳排放,推动农业朝着绿色高效方向发展。

中国粮食成本收益的VEC模型研究

本文采用了计量经济学方法,利用协整理论和向量误差修正(VEC)模型,对中国粮食成本收益与粮食每亩生产成本、生产资料价格、粮价水平,以及政策支持之间的相互影响及关系进行了实证研究。同时构建VEC非结构化模型进行了各变量的预测,模型短期预测结果显示出较高的预测精度,中长期预测结果也显示出较好的预测稳定性和趋势性。模型填补了我国粮食成本收益建模研究方面的空白。

我国房地产业发展与宏观经济互动关系实证研究

近年来房地产业的飞速发展及房价的快速上涨,引起社会各界的广泛关注,中央政府对房地产领域的相关宏观调控政策频繁出台。本文针对如何保持房地产与宏观经济协调发展,在分析房地产业与宏观经济互动机理的基础上,选用1998年第1季度至2008年第4季度之间的相关季度指标,使用向量自回归(VAR)模型,通过数据平稳性检验、Jo-hansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,实证分析了房地产开发投资与宏观经济具体指标之间的互动关系,并给出政策性建议。

中国货币政策行为传导的动态模型检验?——1993年～2002年的实证分析

本文基于协整理论、向量自回归(VAR)选取货币政策工具变量及宏观经济关联变量,对中国1993年～2002年间货币政策行为传导进行了模型实证检验.结果表明:信贷、货币供应量M0及汇率等货币政策工具对消费价格、消费、股价、GDP及储蓄存款的作用显著,而利率工具的作用则较小.对于投资来讲,信贷、货币供应量M1以及存贷款利率等货币政策工具的引导作用显著;而净出口、信贷、货币供应量对其几乎没有引导作用;相反,利率(市场化利率,存款利率)、汇率的引导作用却十分显著.最后,应用VEC模型对变量问的动态特性进行了冲击响应分析.

中国服务贸易国际竞争力影响因素的实证分析

本文以服务贸易国际竞争力影响因素作为研究对象,对服务贸易国际竞争力影响因素及其研究方法进行总结。在此基础上,提出影响我国服务贸易竞争力的因素。然后,选取人力资本状况、城市化率、服务贸易开放程度作为解释变量,以服务贸易国际市场占有率作为被解释变量,利用Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型,研究影响中国服务贸易国际市场占有率的长期和短期因素,并提出相应的政策建议。

影响我国猪肉价格波动的因素——基于VEC模型的动态计量分析

采用2004年9月～2012年2月猪肉价格、育肥猪配合饲料价格、居民消费价格指数与仔猪价格的月度数据,借助Johansen协整检验,运用VEC模型分析了育肥猪配合饲料价格、居民消费价格指数与仔猪价格的变化对猪肉价格波动的短期及长期影响。研究表明:短期来看,前一期仔猪价格、育肥猪配合饲料价格以及CPI都对当期的猪肉价格产生正效应,其中前一期CPI对当期猪肉价格正效应最大。长期来看,CPI对猪肉价格的影响减弱,而育肥猪配合饲料价格对猪肉价格影响增强,仔猪价格对猪肉价格却产生了负效应。在此基础上,提出了稳定猪肉价格的政策建议。

我国货币需求的变动及其决定机制——基于VEC模型的实证研究

基于VEC模型对我国货币需求变动与决定机制的实证研究表明,利率对货币需求、收入和物价等宏观经济变量的影响不具有显著性,预期通货膨胀率变动会对货币需求形成强烈冲击,股票市场在长期和短期对货币需求的影响机制不同,M2余额的调整相对M1而言对经济运行具有更显著的影响。鉴于此,中央银行在货币政策制定时应以M2作为主要的调控目标,重点防范物价异动对货币需求的冲击,加强股市对货币需求的影响机制研究,突出公开市场业务在货币政策工具中的作用。

人民币汇率对国内物价传递效应的实证分析

本文基于1999年1月至2009年10月的月度数据,使用协整与误差修正模型,对人民币汇率对国内物价的传递效应进行了实证分析。同时,建立了2005年7月汇率改革前后的两个子样本,比较分析了汇率改革前后的长期汇率传递效应。研究结论表明,在整个样本期间内,人民币汇率对国内物价的传递效应较低,当人民币名义有效汇率变动一个百分点时,国内物价指数仅变动0.405410个百分点。但2005年7月汇率改革后,汇率传递系数有了明显的上升。

GRA BASED ANALYSIS ON FACTORS INFLUENCING CO_2 EMISSIONS IN CHINA

How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2 emissions has been an academic focus in China recently. The factors influencing CO2 emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target. Firstly, three influential factors, the energy consumption, the proportion of tertiary industry in gross domestic product （GDP）, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade, are carefully selected, since all of them have closer grey relation with China＇s COz emissions compared with others when the grey relational analysis （GRA） method is applied. The study highlights co-integration relation of these four variables using the co-integration analysis method. And then a long-term co-integration equation and a short-term error correction model of China＇s CO2 emissions are devel- oped. Finally, the comparison is exerted between the forecast value and the actual value of China＇s CO2 emissions based on error correction model. The results and the relevant statistics tests show that the pro- posed model has better explanation capability and credibility.