Acoustic propagation uncertainty in internal wave environments using an ocean-acoustic joint model

An ocean-acoustic joint model is developed for research of acoustic propagation uncertainty in internal wave environments.The internal waves are numerically produced by tidal forcing over a continental slope using an ocean model.Three parameters(i.e.,internal wave,source depth,and water depth)contribute to the dynamic waveguide environments,and result in stochastic sound fields.The sensitivity of the transmission loss(TL)to environment parameters,statistical characteristics of the TL variation,and the associated physical mechanisms are investigated by the Sobol sensitivity analysis method,the Monte Carlo sampling,and the coupled normal mode theory,respectively.The results show that the TL is most sensitive to the source depth in the near field,resulted from the initial amplitudes of higher-order modes;while in middle and far fields,the internal waves are responsible for more than 80%of the total acoustic propagation contribution.In addition,the standard deviation of the TL in the near field and the shallow layer is smaller than those in the middle and far fields and the deep layer.

A Joint Model of Device Load and User Intention in Load Monitoring

In this paper, a concept for the joint modeling of the device load and user intention is presented. It consists of two coupled models, a device load model to characterize the power consumption of an electric device of interest, and a user intention model for describing the user intentions which cause the energy consumption. The advantage of this joint model is the ability to predict the device load from the user intention and to reconstruct the user intention from the measured device load. This opens a new way for load monitoring, simulation and prediction from the perspective of users instead of devices.

Joint modelling of location and scale parameters of the skew-normal distribution

Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

APPLICATION OF UBIQUITOUS JOINT MODEL IN NUMERICAL MODELING OF HILLTOP MINES IN JAPAN

Numerical modeling of three cases(Fuka Mine,Okayama;Shouda Mine,Okayama;Tokiwa Mine,Fukushima)of mining in Japan using FLAC(fast Lagrangian analysis of continua)is introduced to evaluate the stability of hilltop excavation.Ubiquitous joint model is adopted to account for the presence of weak planes,such as weathering joints,bedding planes,in FLAC Mohr-Coulomb mode.By studying the distribution of stress,displacement and safety factor,the stability of excavation can be evaluated and new suggestions based on the numerical modeling process can be presented.Further consideration and methodology of the numerical modeling method are also discussed.

Bayesian Joint Modelling of Survival Time and Longitudinal CD4 Cell Counts Using Accelerated Failure Time and Generalized Error Distributions

Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.

Statistical Inference in Generalized Linear Mixed Models by Joint Modelling Mean and Covariance of Non-Normal Random Effects

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are typically constructed by incorporating random effects into the linear predictor. The random effects are usually assumed to be normally distributed with mean zero and variance-covariance identity matrix. In this paper, we propose to release random effects to non-normal distributions and discuss how to model the mean and covariance structures in GLMMs simultaneously. Parameter estimation is solved by using Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method through iterative Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm very well in terms of accuracy and stabilization, which is demonstrated by real binary salamander mating data analysis and simulation studies.

Joint multivariate statistical model and its applications to synthetic earthquake predic-tion

针对目前地震综合预报中的一些问题，利用近30年来迅速发展的多元统计分析中主成分分析、判别分析组成多元统计组合模型，在众多的地震预报指标(预报因子)中采用信息最大化方法，选择对中期预测信息累积贡献率大于90％地震预报指标，分别进行相关分析、预测、检验，最终应用马氏距离判别作外推综合预报；并以华北地区(30°～42°N，108°125°E)为例进行模型的应用检验，初步研究已取得了较好的效果．

Discrete modeling of rock joints with a smooth-joint contact model

Structural defects such as joints or faults are inherent to almost any rock mass.In many situations those defects have a major impact on slope stability as they can control the possible failure mechanisms.Having a good estimate of their strength then becomes crucial.The roughness of a structure is a major contributor to its strength through two different aspects,i.e.the morphology of the surface(or the shape)and the strength of the asperities(related to the strength of the rock).In the current state of practice,roughness is assessed through idealized descriptions(Patton strength criterion)or through empirical parameters(Barton JRC).In both cases,the multi-dimensionality of the roughness is ignored.In this study,we propose to take advantage of the latest developments in numerical techniques.With3D photogrammetry and/or laser mapping,practitioners have access to the real morphology of an exposed structure.The derived triangulated surface was introduced into the DEM(discrete element method)code PFC3D to create a synthetic rock joint.The interaction between particles on either side of the discontinuity was described by a smooth-joint model(SJM),hence suppressing the artificial roughness introduced by the particle discretization.Shear tests were then performed on the synthetic rock joint.A good correspondence between strengths predicted by the model and strengths derived from well-established techniques was obtained for thefirst time.Amongst the benefits of the methodology is the possibility offered by the model to be used in a quantitative way for shear strength estimates,to reproduce the progressive degradation of the asperities upon shearing and to analyze structures of different scales without introducing any empirical relation.

Three-Layer Joint Modeling of Chinese Trigger Extraction withConstraints on Trigger and Argument Semantics

As a subtask of information extraction (IE), which aims to extract structured information from texts, event extraction is to recognize event trigger mentions of a predefined event type and their arguments. In general, event extraction can be divided into two subtasks: trigger extraction and argument extraction. Currently, the frequent existences of unannotated trigger mentions and poor-context trigger mentions impose critical challenges in Chinese trigger extraction. This paper proposes a novel three-layer joint model to integrate three components in trigger extraction, i.e., trigger identification, event type determination, and event subtype determination. In this way, different kinds of evidence on distinct pseudo samples can be well captured to eliminate the harmful effects of those un-annotated trigger mentions. In addition, this paper introduces various types of linguistically driven constraints on the trigger and argument semantics into the joint model to recover those poor-context trigger mentions. The experimental results show that our joint model significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art Chinese trigger extraction and Chinese event extraction as a whole.

Joint modeling of longitudinal proportional measurements and survival time with a cure fraction

In cancer clinical trials and other medical studies, both longitudinal measurements and data on a time to an event(survival time) are often collected from the same patients. Joint analyses of these data would improve the efficiency of the statistical inferences. We propose a new joint model for the longitudinal proportional measurements which are restricted in a finite interval and survival times with a potential cure fraction. A penalized joint likelihood is derived based on the Laplace approximation and a semiparametric procedure based on this likelihood is developed to estimate the parameters in the joint model. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the statistical properties of the proposed procedures. The proposed model is applied to data from a clinical trial on early breast cancer.

The distribution of deep source rocks in the GS Sag:joint MT-gravity modeling and constrained inversion

The coal-bearing strata of the deep Upper Paleozoic in the GS Sag have high hydrocarbon potential. Because of the absence of seismic data, we use electromagnetic （MT） and gravity data jointly to delineate the distribution of deep targets based on well logging and geological data. First, a preliminary geological model is established by using three-dimensional （3D） MT inversion results. Second, using the formation density and gravity anomalies, the preliminary geological model is modified by interactive inversion of the gravity data. Then, we conduct MT-constrained inversion based on the modified model to obtain an optimal geological model until the deviations at all stations are minimized. Finally, the geological model and a seismic profile in the middle of the sag is analysed. We determine that the deep reflections of the seismic profile correspond to the Upper Paleozoic that reaches thickness up to 800 m. The processing of field data suggests that the joint MT-gravity modeling and constrained inversion can reduce the multiple solutions for single geophysical data and thus improve the recognition of deep formations. The MT-constrained inversion is consistent with the geological features in the seismic section. This suggests that the joint MT and gravity modeling and constrained inversion can be used to delineate deep targets in similar basins.

Quantitative Metal Magnetic Memory Reliability Modeling for Welded Joints

Metal magnetic memory（MMM） testing has been widely used to detect welded joints. However, load levels, environmental magnetic field, and measurement noises make the MMM data dispersive and bring difficulty to quantitative evaluation. In order to promote the development of quantitative MMM reliability assessment, a new MMM model is presented for welded joints. Steel Q235 welded specimens are tested along the longitudinal and horizontal lines by TSC-2M-8 instrument in the tensile fatigue experiments. The X-ray testing is carried out synchronously to verify the MMM results. It is found that MMM testing can detect the hidden crack earlier than X-ray testing. Moreover, the MMM gradient vector sum K_（vs） is sensitive to the damage degree, especially at early and hidden damage stages. Considering the dispersion of MMM data, the K_（vs） statistical law is investigated, which shows that K_（vs） obeys Gaussian distribution. So K_（vs） is the suitable MMM parameter to establish reliability model of welded joints. At last, the original quantitative MMM reliability model is first presented based on the improved stress strength interference theory. It is shown that the reliability degree R gradually decreases with the decreasing of the residual life ratio T, and the maximal error between prediction reliability degree R_1 and verification reliability degree R_2 is 9.15%. This presented method provides a novel tool of reliability testing and evaluating in practical engineering for welded joints.

Distinct element modelling of fracture plan control in continuum and jointed rock mass in presplitting method of surface mining

Controlled blasting techniques are used to control overbreak and to aid in the stability of the remaining rock formation. Presplitting is one of the most common methods which is used in many open pit mining and surface blast design. The purpose of presplitting is to form a fracture plane across which the radial cracks from the production blast cannot travel. The purpose of this study is to investigate of effect of presplitting on the generation of a smooth wall in continuum and jointed rock mass. The 2D distinct element code was used to simulate the presplitting in a rock slope. The blast load history as a function of time was applied to the inner wall of each blasthole. Important parameters that were considered in the analysis were stress tensor and fracturing pattern. The blast loading magnitude and blasthole spacing and jointing pattern were found to be very significant in the final results.

Identification of the Mechanical Joint Parameters with Model Uncertainty

Joint parameter identification is a key problem in the modeling of complex structures. The behavior of joint may be random due to the random properties of preload and joint geometries, contact surface and its finish, etc. A method is presented to simulate the joint parameters as probabilistic variables. In this method the response surface based model updating method and probabilistic approaches are employed to identify the parameters. The study implies that joint parameters of some structures have normal or nearly normal distributions, and a linear FE model with probabilistic variables could illustrate dynamic characteristics of joints.

An Error Equivalent Model of Revolute Joints with Clearances for Antenna Pointing Mechanisms

Joint clearances in antenna pointing mechanisms lead to uncertainty in function deviation. Current studies mainly focus on radial clearance of revolute joints, while axial clearance has rarely been taken into consideration. In fact, own?ing to errors from machining and assembly, thermal deformation and so forth, practically, axial clearance is inevitable in the joint. In this study, an error equivalent model(EEM) of revolute joints is proposed with considering both radial and axial clearances. Compared to the planar model of revolute joints only considering radial clearance, the journal motion inside the bearing is more abundant and matches the reality better in the EEM. The model is also extended for analyzing the error distribution of a spatial dual?axis("X–Y" type) antenna pointing mechanism of Spot?beam antennas which especially demand a high pointing accuracy. Three case studies are performed which illustrates the internal relation between radial clearance and axial clearance. It is found that when the axial clearance is big enough, the physical journal can freely realize both translational motion and rotational motion. While if the axial clearance is limited, the motion of the physical journal will be restricted. Analysis results indicate that the consideration of both radial and axial clearances in the revolute joint describes the journal motion inside the bearing more precise. To further validate the proposed model, a model of the EEM is designed and fabricated. Some suggestions on the design of revolute joints are also provided.

Joint multivariate statistical model and its applications to the synthetic earthquake prediction

Considering the problems that should be solved in the synthetic earthquake prediction at present, a new model is proposed in the paper. It is called joint multivariate statistical model combined by principal component analysis with discriminatory analysis. Principal component analysis and discriminatory analysis are very important theories in multivariate statistical analysis that has developed quickly in the late thirty years. By means of maximization information method, we choose several earthquake prediction factors whose cumulative proportions of total sam-ple variances are beyond 90% from numerous earthquake prediction factors. The paper applies regression analysis and Mahalanobis discrimination to extrapolating synthetic prediction. Furthermore, we use this model to charac-terize and predict earthquakes in North China (30~42N, 108~125E) and better prediction results are obtained.

A skew–normal mixture of joint location, scale and skewness models

Normal mixture regression models are one of the most important statistical data analysis tools in a heterogeneous population. When the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes, in the last two decades, the skew normal distribution has been shown beneficial in dealing with asymmetric data in various theoretic and applied problems. In this paper, we propose and study a novel class of models： a skew-normal mixture of joint location, scale and skewness models to analyze the heteroscedastic skew-normal data coming from a heterogeneous population. The issues of maximum likelihood estimation are addressed. In particular, an Expectation-Maximization （EM） algorithm for estimating the model parameters is developed. Properties of the estimators of the regression coefficients are evaluated through Monte Carlo experiments. Results from the analysis of a real data set from the Body Mass Index （BMI） data are presented.

3DEC modeling on effect of joints and interlayer on wave propagation

Firstly, studies on propagation of one-dimensional normally incident wave in rock mass containing no joint, a single joint and two parallel joints were conducted by Three Dimensional Distinct Element Codes(3DEC). By comparison of the modeling results with the theoretical solutions, it has been found that a good agreement between them has been achieved. It is verified that the 3DEC is capable of modeling wave propagation in rock masses. Secondly, propagation of normally incident P-wave across two parallel joints was studied. The modeling results show that transmission coefficient increases with the increasing ratio of joint spacing to wavelength at first, then decreases with the increasing ratio of joint spacing to wavelength, lastly keeps constant. Finally, effect of interlayer on wave propagation is investigated. It is shown that interlayer results in marked attenuation and leading phase, and that attenuation increases with the increasing frequency and the increasing thickness of interlayer.

QUICK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR RELIABILITY OF SOLDER JOINTS IN BALL GRID ARRAY (BGA) ASSEMBLY——PART Ⅰ: CREEP CONSTITUTIVE RELATION AND FATIGUE MODEL

In this study, a new unified creep constitutive relation and a mod- ified energy-based fatigue model have been established respectively to describe the creep flow and predict the fatigue life of Sn-Pb solders. It is found that the relation successfully elucidates the creep mechanism related to current constitutive relations. The model can be used to describe the temperature and frequency dependent low cycle fatigue behavior of the solder. The relation and the model are further employed in part Ⅱ to develop the numerical simulation approach for the long-term reliability assessment of the plastic ball grid array (BGA) assembly.

Variable selection for skew-normal mixture of joint location and scale models

Although there are many papers on variable selection methods based on mean model in the nite mixture of regression models,little work has been done on how to select signi cant explanatory variables in the modeling of the variance parameter.In this paper,we propose and study a novel class of models:a skew-normal mixture of joint location and scale models to analyze the heteroscedastic skew-normal data coming from a heterogeneous population.The problem of variable selection for the proposed models is considered.In particular,a modi ed Expectation-Maximization(EM)algorithm for estimating the model parameters is developed.The consistency and the oracle property of the penalized estimators is established.Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the nite sample performance of the proposed methodolo-gies.An example is illustrated by the proposed methodologies.