The modified versions of the linear theoretical model of Longuet-Higgins (1983) are derived in this work and also compared with the laboratory experiments carried out in MAR1NTEK. The main feature of modifications i...The modified versions of the linear theoretical model of Longuet-Higgins (1983) are derived in this work and also compared with the laboratory experiments carried out in MAR1NTEK. The main feature of modifications is to replace the mean frequency in the formulation with the peak frequency of the wave spectrum. These two alternative forms of joint distributions are checked in three typical random sea states characterized by the initial wave steepness. In order to further explore the properties &these models, the associated marginal distributions of wave heights and wave periods are also researched with the observed statistics and some encouraging results are obtained.展开更多
In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth ...In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth large (or significant) wave height with average period is studied. The statistical data demonstrate that the long- term distribution of the one- tenth wave height or average period fits the log-normal distribution, thus the joint distribution also fits the two-dimensional log-normal distribution. Then the conditional probability distribution of the average period is derived, and the range as well as the mode of the average wave period corresponding to a certain return period of wave height can be calculated easily.展开更多
The rate of change of wave surface elevation is of much importance in ocean engineering, especially for the determination of the limitation of wave breaking. This paper gives a kind of joint distribution of wave perio...The rate of change of wave surface elevation is of much importance in ocean engineering, especially for the determination of the limitation of wave breaking. This paper gives a kind of joint distribution of wave periods and the rate of change of wave surface elevation by means of calculation of the two-order to four-order moment of the frequency spectrum based on the linear wave theory. For the first time, the distribution density function of wave periods determined by peaks is provided, and the conclusion is drawn that the rate of change of wave surface elevation obeys the Rayleigh distribution.展开更多
By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviati...By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave period for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log- normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi' s bivariate log-normal model(Ochi. 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, we have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T / H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) we establish a new parameterized model for the long-term joint distribution P(H,T). As an example of the application of the new model we give a method for estimating wave period associated with an extreme wave height.展开更多
To study the dynamic mechanical properties and failure characteristics of intersecting jointed rock masses with different joint distributions under confining pressure,considering the cross angleαand joint persistence...To study the dynamic mechanical properties and failure characteristics of intersecting jointed rock masses with different joint distributions under confining pressure,considering the cross angleαand joint persistence ratioη,a numerical model of the biaxial Hopkinson bar test system was established using the finite element method–discrete-element model coupling method.The validity of the model was verified by comparing and analyzing it in conjunction with laboratory test results.Dynamics-static combined impact tests were conducted on specimens under various conditions to investigate the strength characteristics and patterns of crack initiation and expansion.The study revealed the predominant factors influencing intersecting joints with different angles and penetrations under impact loading.The results show that the peak stress of the specimens decreases first and then increases with the increase of the cross angle.Whenα<60°,regardless of the value ofη,the dynamic stress of the specimens is controlled by the main joint.Whenα≥60°,the peak stress borne by the specimens decreases with increasingη.Whenα<60°,the initiation and propagation of cracks in the cross-jointed specimens are mainly controlled by the main joint,and the final failure surface of the specimens is composed of the main joint and wing cracks.Whenα≥60°orη≥0.67,the secondary joint guides the expansion of the wing cracks,and multiple failure surfaces composed of main and secondary joints,wing cracks,and co-planar cracks are formed.Increasing lateral confinement significantly increases the dynamic peak stress able to be borne by the specimens.Under triaxial conditions,the degree of failure of the intersecting jointed specimens is much lower than that under uniaxial and biaxial conditions.展开更多
When the geological environment of rock masses is disturbed,numerous non-persisting open joints can appear within it.It is crucial to investigate the effect of open joints on the mechanical properties of rock mass.How...When the geological environment of rock masses is disturbed,numerous non-persisting open joints can appear within it.It is crucial to investigate the effect of open joints on the mechanical properties of rock mass.However,it has been challenging to generate realistic open joints in traditional experimental tests and numerical simulations.This paper presents a novel solution to solve the problem.By utilizing the stochastic distribution of joints and an enhanced-fractal interpolation system(IFS)method,rough curves with any orientation can be generated.The Douglas-Peucker algorithm is then applied to simplify these curves by removing unnecessary points while preserving their fundamental shape.Subsequently,open joints are created by connecting points that move to both sides of rough curves based on the aperture distribution.Mesh modeling is performed to construct the final mesh model.Finally,the RB-DEM method is applied to transform the mesh model into a discrete element model containing geometric information about these open joints.Furthermore,this study explores the impacts of rough open joint orientation,aperture,and number on rock fracture mechanics.This method provides a realistic and effective approach for modeling and simulating these non-persisting open joints.展开更多
For a transient Bessel process X let I(t) = in fs>tX(s) and§(t) = inf{u≥ 2 t: X(u) = I(t)}. In this note we compute the joint distribution of I(t),§(t) and Xt.
The compound negative binomial model, introduced in this paper, is a discrete time version. We discuss the Markov properties of the surplus process, and study the ruin probability and the joint distributions of actuar...The compound negative binomial model, introduced in this paper, is a discrete time version. We discuss the Markov properties of the surplus process, and study the ruin probability and the joint distributions of actuarial random vectors in this model. By the strong Markov property and the mass function of a defective renewal sequence, we obtain the explicit expressions of the ruin probability, the finite-horizon ruin probability, the joint distributions of T, U(T - 1), |U(T)| and inf U(n) (i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, the deficit at ruin and maximal deficit from ruin to recovery) and the distributions of some actuarial random vectors.展开更多
In this paper, we study the compound binomial model in Markovian environment, which is proposed by Cossette, et al. (2003). We obtain the recursive formula of the joint distributions of T, X(T - 1) and |X(T)|...In this paper, we study the compound binomial model in Markovian environment, which is proposed by Cossette, et al. (2003). We obtain the recursive formula of the joint distributions of T, X(T - 1) and |X(T)|(i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin) by the method of mass function of up-crossing zero points, as given by Liu and Zhao (2007). By using the same method, the recursive formula of supremum distribution is obtained. An example is included to illustrate the results of the model.展开更多
Generative adversarial networks(GANs)have shown impressive power in the field of machine learning.Traditional GANs have focused on unsupervised learning tasks.In recent years,conditional GANs that can generate data wi...Generative adversarial networks(GANs)have shown impressive power in the field of machine learning.Traditional GANs have focused on unsupervised learning tasks.In recent years,conditional GANs that can generate data with labels have been proposed in semi-supervised learning and have achieved better image quality than traditional GANs.Conditional GANs,however,generally only minimize the difference between marginal distributions of real and generated data,neglecting the difference with respect to each class of the data.To address this challenge,we propose the GAN with joint distribution moment matching(JDMM-GAN)for matching the joint distribution based on maximum mean discrepancy,which minimizes the differences of both the marginal and conditional distributions.The learning procedure is iteratively conducted by the stochastic gradient descent and back-propagation.We evaluate JDMM-GAN on several benchmark datasets,including MNIST,CIFAR-10 and the Extended Yale Face.Compared with the state-of-the-art GANs,JDMM-GAN generates more realistic images and achieves the best inception score for CIFAR-10 dataset.展开更多
In a context where express delivery service is indispensable in urban production and life in China,urban express joint distribution will help reduce the negative impact of logistics activities on urban traffic and env...In a context where express delivery service is indispensable in urban production and life in China,urban express joint distribution will help reduce the negative impact of logistics activities on urban traffic and environment,and eventually promote the coordinated development of the express delivery industry and the city.This paper summarizes the background of urban express joint distribution based on its four driving forces:saving resources,green development,traffic avoidance,and public service.Then it establishes a network structure model of urban express joint distribution based on systems thinking,elaborates the functional orientations of the four layers in the model–the distribution layer,the feeder transport layer,the terminal station layer,and the collection and delivery layer,and discusses the implementation ideas of joint distribution at all layers.Finally,it puts forward four suggestions for promoting the joint distribution:improving inter-departmental coordination mechanism,maintaining a diversified distribution pattern,promoting in-depth cooperation among companies,and practicing a high-tech development path.展开更多
The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula function, and the Clayton copul...The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares (OLS) test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.展开更多
Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcom...Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.展开更多
Relative navigation is a key feature in the joint tactical information distribution system(JTIDS).A parametric message passing algorithm based on factor graph is proposed to perform relative navigation in JTIDS.Firs...Relative navigation is a key feature in the joint tactical information distribution system(JTIDS).A parametric message passing algorithm based on factor graph is proposed to perform relative navigation in JTIDS.First of all,the joint posterior distribution of all the terminals' positions is represented by factor graph.Because of the nonlinearity between the positions and time-of-arrival(TOA) measurement,messages cannot be obtained in closed forms by directly using the sum-product algorithm on factor graph.To this end,the Euclidean norm is approximated by Taylor expansion.Then,all the messages on the factor graph can be derived in Gaussian forms,which enables the terminals to transmit means and covariances.Finally,the impact of major error sources on the navigation performance are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations,e.g.,range measurement noise,priors of position uncertainty and velocity noise.Results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the extended Kalman filter and cooperative extended Kalman filter in both static and mobile scenarios of the JTIDS.展开更多
The uncertainty of distributed generation energy has dramatically challenged the coordinated development of distribution networks at all levels.This paper focuses on the multi-time-scale regulation model of distribute...The uncertainty of distributed generation energy has dramatically challenged the coordinated development of distribution networks at all levels.This paper focuses on the multi-time-scale regulation model of distributed generation energy under normal conditions.The simulation results of the example verify the self-optimization characteristics and the effectiveness of real-time dispatching of the distribution network control technology at all levels under multiple time scales.展开更多
电-热综合能源系统(integrated electricity and heat system,IEHS)可以有效促进可再生能源消纳。构建区域供热系统精细化模型与合理的可再生能源不确定性出力模型是调度IEHS的两个难点。该文首先提出计及可变流量调节模式的IEHS条件分...电-热综合能源系统(integrated electricity and heat system,IEHS)可以有效促进可再生能源消纳。构建区域供热系统精细化模型与合理的可再生能源不确定性出力模型是调度IEHS的两个难点。该文首先提出计及可变流量调节模式的IEHS条件分布鲁棒优化调度模型,主要有两点改进:通过构建基于修正模糊集的条件分布鲁棒模型建模可再生能源预测误差与其预测出力信息之间的内在依赖性,提升调度结果安全性与最优性;基于流体能量守恒方程与一阶隐式迎风格式建立可变流量调节模式下的IEHS调度模型,以期充分挖掘区域供热系统的灵活性,促进可再生能源消纳。所构建的IEHS调度模型为含有大量非线性约束的条件分布鲁棒模型,难以直接求解。对此,通过对偶理论与条件风险价值近似方法将条件分布鲁棒模型转化为含非线性约束的确定性模型,并提出自适应McCormick算法用以求解非线性约束。通过不同规模案例仿真表明,所提模型能够降低IEHS的调度成本,所提算法在保证可行性的条件下快速求出问题的近似最优解,最优间隙小于千分之一。展开更多
Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probabilit...Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity can be expressed as a lognormal function, while that of lift-off angle follows an exponential function. The probability distribution of lift-off angle conditioned for each lift-off velocity also follows an exponential function, with a slope that becomes steeper with increasing lift-off velocity. This implies that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is strongly dependent on the lift-off angle. However, these lift-off parameters are generally treated as an independent joint probability distribution in the literature. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the effects of conditional versus independent joint probability distributions on the vertical sand mass flux distribution. The simulation results derived from the conditional joint probability distribution agree much better with experimental data than those from the independent ones. Thus, it is better to describe the lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles using the conditional joint probability distribution. These results improve our understanding of saltation processes in wind-blown sand.展开更多
A new analytical study on stresses around a post-tensioned anchor in rocks with two perpendicular joint sets is presented. The assumptions of orthotropic elastic rock with plane strain conditions are made in derivatio...A new analytical study on stresses around a post-tensioned anchor in rocks with two perpendicular joint sets is presented. The assumptions of orthotropic elastic rock with plane strain conditions are made in derivation of the formulations. A tri-linear bond-slip constitutive law is used for modeling the tendon-grout interface behavior and debonding of this interface. The bearing plate width is also considered in the analysis. The obtained solutions are in the integral forms and numerical techniques that have been used for evaluation. In the illustrative example given, the major principal stress is compressive in the anchor free zone and compressive stress concentrations of 815 k Pa and 727 k Pa(for the anchor load of 300 k N) are observed under the bearing plate and the bond length proximal end, respectively. However, large values of tensile stresses with the maximum of-434 k Pa are formed at the bond length distal end. The results obtained using the proposed solution are compared very those of numerical method(FEM).展开更多
基金financially supported by the European Union(Grant No.234175)the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology(Grant No.SFRH/BD/98983/2013)
文摘The modified versions of the linear theoretical model of Longuet-Higgins (1983) are derived in this work and also compared with the laboratory experiments carried out in MAR1NTEK. The main feature of modifications is to replace the mean frequency in the formulation with the peak frequency of the wave spectrum. These two alternative forms of joint distributions are checked in three typical random sea states characterized by the initial wave steepness. In order to further explore the properties &these models, the associated marginal distributions of wave heights and wave periods are also researched with the observed statistics and some encouraging results are obtained.
文摘In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth large (or significant) wave height with average period is studied. The statistical data demonstrate that the long- term distribution of the one- tenth wave height or average period fits the log-normal distribution, thus the joint distribution also fits the two-dimensional log-normal distribution. Then the conditional probability distribution of the average period is derived, and the range as well as the mode of the average wave period corresponding to a certain return period of wave height can be calculated easily.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China.(No.49776285)
文摘The rate of change of wave surface elevation is of much importance in ocean engineering, especially for the determination of the limitation of wave breaking. This paper gives a kind of joint distribution of wave periods and the rate of change of wave surface elevation by means of calculation of the two-order to four-order moment of the frequency spectrum based on the linear wave theory. For the first time, the distribution density function of wave periods determined by peaks is provided, and the conclusion is drawn that the rate of change of wave surface elevation obeys the Rayleigh distribution.
文摘By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave period for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log- normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi' s bivariate log-normal model(Ochi. 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, we have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T / H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) we establish a new parameterized model for the long-term joint distribution P(H,T). As an example of the application of the new model we give a method for estimating wave period associated with an extreme wave height.
基金supported by Open Research Fund of Hubei Key Laboratory of Blasting(Engineering HKL-BEF202006)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52079102,52108368).
文摘To study the dynamic mechanical properties and failure characteristics of intersecting jointed rock masses with different joint distributions under confining pressure,considering the cross angleαand joint persistence ratioη,a numerical model of the biaxial Hopkinson bar test system was established using the finite element method–discrete-element model coupling method.The validity of the model was verified by comparing and analyzing it in conjunction with laboratory test results.Dynamics-static combined impact tests were conducted on specimens under various conditions to investigate the strength characteristics and patterns of crack initiation and expansion.The study revealed the predominant factors influencing intersecting joints with different angles and penetrations under impact loading.The results show that the peak stress of the specimens decreases first and then increases with the increase of the cross angle.Whenα<60°,regardless of the value ofη,the dynamic stress of the specimens is controlled by the main joint.Whenα≥60°,the peak stress borne by the specimens decreases with increasingη.Whenα<60°,the initiation and propagation of cracks in the cross-jointed specimens are mainly controlled by the main joint,and the final failure surface of the specimens is composed of the main joint and wing cracks.Whenα≥60°orη≥0.67,the secondary joint guides the expansion of the wing cracks,and multiple failure surfaces composed of main and secondary joints,wing cracks,and co-planar cracks are formed.Increasing lateral confinement significantly increases the dynamic peak stress able to be borne by the specimens.Under triaxial conditions,the degree of failure of the intersecting jointed specimens is much lower than that under uniaxial and biaxial conditions.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC0407004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Nos.B200201059,2021FZZX001-14)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.51709089)and 111 Project.
文摘When the geological environment of rock masses is disturbed,numerous non-persisting open joints can appear within it.It is crucial to investigate the effect of open joints on the mechanical properties of rock mass.However,it has been challenging to generate realistic open joints in traditional experimental tests and numerical simulations.This paper presents a novel solution to solve the problem.By utilizing the stochastic distribution of joints and an enhanced-fractal interpolation system(IFS)method,rough curves with any orientation can be generated.The Douglas-Peucker algorithm is then applied to simplify these curves by removing unnecessary points while preserving their fundamental shape.Subsequently,open joints are created by connecting points that move to both sides of rough curves based on the aperture distribution.Mesh modeling is performed to construct the final mesh model.Finally,the RB-DEM method is applied to transform the mesh model into a discrete element model containing geometric information about these open joints.Furthermore,this study explores the impacts of rough open joint orientation,aperture,and number on rock fracture mechanics.This method provides a realistic and effective approach for modeling and simulating these non-persisting open joints.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (19801020)
文摘For a transient Bessel process X let I(t) = in fs>tX(s) and§(t) = inf{u≥ 2 t: X(u) = I(t)}. In this note we compute the joint distribution of I(t),§(t) and Xt.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.10671197)
文摘The compound negative binomial model, introduced in this paper, is a discrete time version. We discuss the Markov properties of the surplus process, and study the ruin probability and the joint distributions of actuarial random vectors in this model. By the strong Markov property and the mass function of a defective renewal sequence, we obtain the explicit expressions of the ruin probability, the finite-horizon ruin probability, the joint distributions of T, U(T - 1), |U(T)| and inf U(n) (i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, the deficit at ruin and maximal deficit from ruin to recovery) and the distributions of some actuarial random vectors.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10671176, 10771192, 70871103)
文摘In this paper, we study the compound binomial model in Markovian environment, which is proposed by Cossette, et al. (2003). We obtain the recursive formula of the joint distributions of T, X(T - 1) and |X(T)|(i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin) by the method of mass function of up-crossing zero points, as given by Liu and Zhao (2007). By using the same method, the recursive formula of supremum distribution is obtained. An example is included to illustrate the results of the model.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11771276,11471208,61731009)the Foundation of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality(No.14DZ2260800).
文摘Generative adversarial networks(GANs)have shown impressive power in the field of machine learning.Traditional GANs have focused on unsupervised learning tasks.In recent years,conditional GANs that can generate data with labels have been proposed in semi-supervised learning and have achieved better image quality than traditional GANs.Conditional GANs,however,generally only minimize the difference between marginal distributions of real and generated data,neglecting the difference with respect to each class of the data.To address this challenge,we propose the GAN with joint distribution moment matching(JDMM-GAN)for matching the joint distribution based on maximum mean discrepancy,which minimizes the differences of both the marginal and conditional distributions.The learning procedure is iteratively conducted by the stochastic gradient descent and back-propagation.We evaluate JDMM-GAN on several benchmark datasets,including MNIST,CIFAR-10 and the Extended Yale Face.Compared with the state-of-the-art GANs,JDMM-GAN generates more realistic images and achieves the best inception score for CIFAR-10 dataset.
基金supported by the fund program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China titled Research on the Organization and Evolution of E-Commerce Joint Distribution Service Network Based on Social Channels(71502002)the Soft Science Project of Anhui Province titled Research on Strategies for Developing an E-Commerce Joint Distribution System in Anhui Province(1607a O202059)。
文摘In a context where express delivery service is indispensable in urban production and life in China,urban express joint distribution will help reduce the negative impact of logistics activities on urban traffic and environment,and eventually promote the coordinated development of the express delivery industry and the city.This paper summarizes the background of urban express joint distribution based on its four driving forces:saving resources,green development,traffic avoidance,and public service.Then it establishes a network structure model of urban express joint distribution based on systems thinking,elaborates the functional orientations of the four layers in the model–the distribution layer,the feeder transport layer,the terminal station layer,and the collection and delivery layer,and discusses the implementation ideas of joint distribution at all layers.Finally,it puts forward four suggestions for promoting the joint distribution:improving inter-departmental coordination mechanism,maintaining a diversified distribution pattern,promoting in-depth cooperation among companies,and practicing a high-tech development path.
基金supported by the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (Grant No. 51021004)the National High Technology Research and DevelopmentProgram of China (863 Program, Grants No. 2012AA112509 and 2012AA051702)
文摘The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares (OLS) test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11261025,11201412)the Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province(2011FB016)the Program for Middle-aged Backbone Teacher,Yunnan University
文摘Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(6120118161471037+1 种基金61571041)the Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of China(201445)
文摘Relative navigation is a key feature in the joint tactical information distribution system(JTIDS).A parametric message passing algorithm based on factor graph is proposed to perform relative navigation in JTIDS.First of all,the joint posterior distribution of all the terminals' positions is represented by factor graph.Because of the nonlinearity between the positions and time-of-arrival(TOA) measurement,messages cannot be obtained in closed forms by directly using the sum-product algorithm on factor graph.To this end,the Euclidean norm is approximated by Taylor expansion.Then,all the messages on the factor graph can be derived in Gaussian forms,which enables the terminals to transmit means and covariances.Finally,the impact of major error sources on the navigation performance are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations,e.g.,range measurement noise,priors of position uncertainty and velocity noise.Results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the extended Kalman filter and cooperative extended Kalman filter in both static and mobile scenarios of the JTIDS.
文摘The uncertainty of distributed generation energy has dramatically challenged the coordinated development of distribution networks at all levels.This paper focuses on the multi-time-scale regulation model of distributed generation energy under normal conditions.The simulation results of the example verify the self-optimization characteristics and the effectiveness of real-time dispatching of the distribution network control technology at all levels under multiple time scales.
文摘电-热综合能源系统(integrated electricity and heat system,IEHS)可以有效促进可再生能源消纳。构建区域供热系统精细化模型与合理的可再生能源不确定性出力模型是调度IEHS的两个难点。该文首先提出计及可变流量调节模式的IEHS条件分布鲁棒优化调度模型,主要有两点改进:通过构建基于修正模糊集的条件分布鲁棒模型建模可再生能源预测误差与其预测出力信息之间的内在依赖性,提升调度结果安全性与最优性;基于流体能量守恒方程与一阶隐式迎风格式建立可变流量调节模式下的IEHS调度模型,以期充分挖掘区域供热系统的灵活性,促进可再生能源消纳。所构建的IEHS调度模型为含有大量非线性约束的条件分布鲁棒模型,难以直接求解。对此,通过对偶理论与条件风险价值近似方法将条件分布鲁棒模型转化为含非线性约束的确定性模型,并提出自适应McCormick算法用以求解非线性约束。通过不同规模案例仿真表明,所提模型能够降低IEHS的调度成本,所提算法在保证可行性的条件下快速求出问题的近似最优解,最优间隙小于千分之一。
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(GK201503053)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41601002)
文摘Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity can be expressed as a lognormal function, while that of lift-off angle follows an exponential function. The probability distribution of lift-off angle conditioned for each lift-off velocity also follows an exponential function, with a slope that becomes steeper with increasing lift-off velocity. This implies that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is strongly dependent on the lift-off angle. However, these lift-off parameters are generally treated as an independent joint probability distribution in the literature. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the effects of conditional versus independent joint probability distributions on the vertical sand mass flux distribution. The simulation results derived from the conditional joint probability distribution agree much better with experimental data than those from the independent ones. Thus, it is better to describe the lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles using the conditional joint probability distribution. These results improve our understanding of saltation processes in wind-blown sand.
文摘A new analytical study on stresses around a post-tensioned anchor in rocks with two perpendicular joint sets is presented. The assumptions of orthotropic elastic rock with plane strain conditions are made in derivation of the formulations. A tri-linear bond-slip constitutive law is used for modeling the tendon-grout interface behavior and debonding of this interface. The bearing plate width is also considered in the analysis. The obtained solutions are in the integral forms and numerical techniques that have been used for evaluation. In the illustrative example given, the major principal stress is compressive in the anchor free zone and compressive stress concentrations of 815 k Pa and 727 k Pa(for the anchor load of 300 k N) are observed under the bearing plate and the bond length proximal end, respectively. However, large values of tensile stresses with the maximum of-434 k Pa are formed at the bond length distal end. The results obtained using the proposed solution are compared very those of numerical method(FEM).