Accurate estimations of biomass and its temporal dynamics are crucial for monitoring the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems and assessing forest carbon sequestration potentials.Recent studies have shown that integratin...Accurate estimations of biomass and its temporal dynamics are crucial for monitoring the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems and assessing forest carbon sequestration potentials.Recent studies have shown that integrating process-based models(PBMs)with remote sensing data can enhance simulations from stand to regional scales,significantly improving the ability to simulate forest growth and carbon stock dynamics.However,the utilization of PBMs for large-scale simulation of larch carbon storage distribution is still limited.In this study,we applied the parameterized 3-PG(Physiological Principles Predicting Growth)model across the Mengjiagang Forest Farm(MFF)to make broad-scale predictions of the biomass and carbon stocks of Larix olgensis plantation.The model was used to simulate average diameter at breast height(DBH)and total biomass,which were later validated with a wide range of observation data including sample plot data,forest management inventory data,and airborne laser scanning data.The results showed that the 3-PG model had relatively high accuracy for predicting both DBH and total biomass at stand and regional scale,with determination coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.88.Based on the estimation of total biomass,we successfully produced a carbon stock map of the Larix olgensis plantation in MFF with a spatial resolution of 20 m,which helps with relevant management advice.These findings indicate that the integration of 3-PG model and remote sensing data can well predict the biomass and carbon stock at regional and even larger scales.In addition,this integration facilitates the evaluation of forest carbon sequestration capacity and the development of forest management plans.展开更多
Savannas constitute a mixture of trees and shrub patches with a more continuous herbaceous understory.The contribution of this biome to the soil organic carbon(SOC)and above-ground biomass(AGB)carbon(C)stock globally ...Savannas constitute a mixture of trees and shrub patches with a more continuous herbaceous understory.The contribution of this biome to the soil organic carbon(SOC)and above-ground biomass(AGB)carbon(C)stock globally is significant.However,they are frequently subjected to land use changes,promoting increases in CO_(2) emissions.In Uruguay,subtropical wooded savannas cover around 100,000 ha,of which approximately 28%is circumscribed to sodic soils(i.e.,subtropical halophytic wooded savannas).Nevertheless,there is little background about the contribution of each ecosystem component to the C stock as well as site-specific allometric equations.The study was conducted in 5 ha of subtropical halophytic wooded savannas of the national protected area Esteros y Algarrobales del Rio Uruguay.This work aimed to estimate the contribution of the main ecosystem components(e.g.,soil,trees,shrubs,and herbaceous plants)to the C stock.Site-specific allometric equations for the most frequent tree species and shrub genus were fitted based on basal diameter(BD)and total height(H).The fitted equations accounted for between 77%and 98%of the aerial biomass variance of Netuma affinis and Vachellia caven.For shrubs(Baccharis sp.),the adjusted equation accounted for 86%of total aerial biomass.C stock for the entire system was 116.71±11.07 Mg·ha^(-1),of which 90.7%was allocated in the soil,8.3%in the trees,0.8%in the herbaceous plants,and 0.2%in the shrubs.These results highlight the importance of subtropical halophytic wooded savannas as C sinks and their relevance in the mitigation of global warming under a climate change scenario.展开更多
Stock volatility constitutes an adverse psychological stressor,but few large-scale studies have focused on its impact on major adverse cardiovascular events(MACEs)and suicide.Here,we conducted an individual-level time...Stock volatility constitutes an adverse psychological stressor,but few large-scale studies have focused on its impact on major adverse cardiovascular events(MACEs)and suicide.Here,we conducted an individual-level time-stratified case-crossover study to explore the association of daily stock volatility(daily returns and intra-daily oscillations for three kinds of stock indices)with MACEs and suicide among more than 12 million individual decedents from all counties in the mainland of China between 2013 and 2019.For daily stock returns,both stock increases and decreases were associated with increased mortal-ity risks of all MACEs and suicide.There were consistent and positive associations between intra-daily stock oscillations and mortality due to MACEs and suicide.The excess mortality risks occurred at the cur-rent day(lag 0 d),persisted for two days,and were greatest for suicide and hemorrhagic stroke.Taking the present-day Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index as an example,a 1%decrease in daily returns was associated with 0.74%-1.04%and 1.77%increases in mortality risks of MACEs and suicide,respectively;the corresponding risk increments were 0.57%-0.85%and 0.92%for a 1%increase in daily returns and 0.67%-0.77%and 1.09%for a 1%increase in intra-daily stock oscillations.The excess risks were more pro-nounced among individuals aged 65-74 years,males,and those with lower education levels.Our findings revealed considerable health risks linked to sociopsychological stressors,which are helpful for the gov-ernment and general public to mitigate the immediate cardiovascular and mental health risks associated with stock market volatility.展开更多
Mango tilapia, Sarotherodon galilaeus is one of the most caught fish species in the Samandeni multi-species fishing sites of which, few data on its biology and exploitation are available. The study aimed to Assess the...Mango tilapia, Sarotherodon galilaeus is one of the most caught fish species in the Samandeni multi-species fishing sites of which, few data on its biology and exploitation are available. The study aimed to Assess the stock status of S. galilaeus. Sampling was conducted from March, 2021 to February 2022 based on commercial fish catches to analyze growth parameters, first sexual maturity size and harvest status of the stock. A total of 572 specimens including 297 females and 275 males were examined. The stock assessment was performed by using the Length based Bayesian method of Biomass (LBB) and that of growth by the ELEFAN method. The growth parameters showed a seasonality of growth and females appeared to grow faster than males. On the other hand, males had a greater asymptotic length than females. Results on the estimated length of fish at first maturity showed that females firstly reached the maturity compared to males. The relative biomass (B/B<sub>0</sub>) estimated for the stock was higher than the relative biomass that produces maximum sustainable yield (B<sub>MSY</sub>/B<sub>0</sub>) indicating healthy biomass. In addition, the length at first sexual maturity was less than the length at the first catch, indicating the absence of overfishing of growth. In addition, extending the study to the various stocks of the reservoir would be important for the sustainable management of the Samandeni high economic fishing area.展开更多
Biodiversity,large trees,and environmental conditions such as climate and soil have important effects on forest carbon stocks.However,recent studies in temperate forests suggest that the relative importance of these f...Biodiversity,large trees,and environmental conditions such as climate and soil have important effects on forest carbon stocks.However,recent studies in temperate forests suggest that the relative importance of these factors depends on tree mycorrhizal associations,whereby large-tree effects may be driven by ectomycorrhizal(EM)trees,diversity effects may be driven by arbuscular mycorrhizal(AM)trees,and environment effects may depend on differential climate and soil preferences of AM and EM trees.To test this hypothesis,we used forest-inventory data consisting of over 80,000 trees from 631 temperate-forest plots(30 m×30 m)across Northeast China to examine how biodiversity(species diversity and ecological uniqueness),large trees(top 1%of tree diameters),and environmental factors(climate and soil nutrients)differently regulate aboveground carbon stocks of AM trees,EM trees,and AM and EM trees combined(i.e.total aboveground carbon stock).We found that large trees had a positive effect on both AM and EM tree carbon stocks.However,biodiversity and environmental factors had opposite effects on AM vs.EM tree carbon stocks.Specifically,the two components of biodiversity had positive effects on AM tree carbon stocks,but negative effects on EM tree carbon stocks.Environmental heterogeneity(mean annual temperature and soil nutrients)also exhibited contrasting effects on AM and EM tree carbon stocks.Consequently,for the total carbon stock,the positive large-tree effect far surpasses the diversity and environment effect.This is mainly because when integrating AM and EM tree carbon stock into total carbon stock,the opposite diversity-effect(also environment-effect)on AM vs.EM tree carbon stock counteracts each other while the consistent positive large-tree effect on AM and EM tree carbon stock is amplified.In summary,this study emphasized a mycorrhizal viewpoint to better understand the determinants of overarching aboveground carbon profile across regional forests.展开更多
To systematically incorporate multiple influencing factors,the coupled-state frequency memory(Co-SFM)network is proposed.This model integrates Copula estimation with neural networks,fusing multilevel data information,...To systematically incorporate multiple influencing factors,the coupled-state frequency memory(Co-SFM)network is proposed.This model integrates Copula estimation with neural networks,fusing multilevel data information,which is then fed into downstream learning modules.Co-SFM employs an upstream fusion module to incorporate multilevel data,thereby constructing a macro-plate-micro data structure.This configuration helps identify and integrate characteristics from different data levels,facilitating a deeper understanding of the internal links within the financial system.In the downstream model,Co-SFM uses a state-frequency memory network to mine hidden frequency information within stock prices,and the multifrequency patterns of sequential data are modeled.Empirical results show that Co-SFM s prediction accuracy for stock price trends is significantly better than that of other models.This is especially evident in multistep medium and long-term trend predictions,where integrating multilevel data results in notably improved accuracy.展开更多
Self-rooted apple stock is widely used for apple production.However,the shallowness of the adventitious roots in self-rooted apple stock leads to poor performance in the barren orchards of China.This is because of the...Self-rooted apple stock is widely used for apple production.However,the shallowness of the adventitious roots in self-rooted apple stock leads to poor performance in the barren orchards of China.This is because of the considerable difference in the development of a gravitropic set-point angle(GSA)between self-rooted apple stock and seedling rootstock.Therefore,it is crucial to study the molecular mechanism of adventitious root GSA in self-rooted apple stock for breeding self-rooted and deep-rooted apple rootstock cultivars.An apple auxin response factor MdARF19 functioned to establish the adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity and auxin signals.MdARF19 bound directly to the MdPIN7 promoter,activating its transcriptional expression and thus regulating the formation of the adventitious root GSA in 12-2 self-rooted apple stock.However,MdARF19 influenced the expression of auxin efflux carriers(MdPIN3 and MdPIN10)and the establishment of adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity signals by direct activation of MdFLP.Our findings provide new information on the transcriptional regulation of MdPIN7 by auxin response factor MdARF19 in the regulation of the adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity and auxin signals.展开更多
The present study examines the impact of short-term public opinion sentiment on the secondary market,with a focus on the potential for such sentiment to cause dramatic stock price fluctuations and increase investment ...The present study examines the impact of short-term public opinion sentiment on the secondary market,with a focus on the potential for such sentiment to cause dramatic stock price fluctuations and increase investment risk.The quantification of investment sentiment indicators and the persistent analysis of their impact has been a complex and significant area of research.In this paper,a structured multi-head attention stock index prediction method based adaptive public opinion sentiment vector is proposed.The proposedmethod utilizes an innovative approach to transform numerous investor comments on social platforms over time into public opinion sentiment vectors expressing complex sentiments.It then analyzes the continuous impact of these vectors on the market through the use of aggregating techniques and public opinion data via a structured multi-head attention mechanism.The experimental results demonstrate that the public opinion sentiment vector can provide more comprehensive feedback on market sentiment than traditional sentiment polarity analysis.Furthermore,the multi-head attention mechanism is shown to improve prediction accuracy through attention convergence on each type of input information separately.Themean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the proposedmethod is 0.463%,a reduction of 0.294% compared to the benchmark attention algorithm.Additionally,the market backtesting results indicate that the return was 24.560%,an improvement of 8.202% compared to the benchmark algorithm.These results suggest that themarket trading strategy based on thismethod has the potential to improve trading profits.展开更多
We examine the impact of the short sell disclosure(SSD)regime on the stock lending market and investor behaviors,employing a staggered difference-indifference(DiD)methodology.Our research reveals that the introduction...We examine the impact of the short sell disclosure(SSD)regime on the stock lending market and investor behaviors,employing a staggered difference-indifference(DiD)methodology.Our research reveals that the introduction of the disclosure regime enhances market transparency,resulting in a diminished appeal of stock ownership in the lending market for active investors.This shift is accompanied by a reduction in information leakage risks and longer loan durations.Specifically,our analysis reveals a significant decrease in the risk of loan recall by 4.87%,accompanied by an average increase of 23.72%in loan duration for short selling activities.Furthermore,the cost associated with short-sell disclosure causes a decline in both lending supply and short demand.展开更多
Soil organic carbon(SOC)affects the function of terrestrial ecosystem and plays a vital role in global carbon cycle.Yet,large uncertainty still existed regarding the changes in SOC stock and quality with forest succes...Soil organic carbon(SOC)affects the function of terrestrial ecosystem and plays a vital role in global carbon cycle.Yet,large uncertainty still existed regarding the changes in SOC stock and quality with forest succession.Here,the stock and quality of SOC at 1-m soil profile were investigated across a subalpine forest series,including shrub,deciduous broad-leaved forest,broadleaf-conifer mixed forest,middle-age coniferous forest and mature coniferous forest,which located at southeast of Tibetan Plateau.The results showed that SOC stock ranged from 9.8 to29.9 kg·m^(-2),and exhibited a hump-shaped response pattern across the forest successional series.The highest and lowest SOC stock was observed in the mixed forest and shrub forest,respectively.The SOC stock had no significant relationships with soil temperature and litter stock,but was positively correlated with wood debris stock.Meanwhile,the average percentages of polysaccharides,lignins,aromatics and aliphatics based on FTIR spectroscopy were 79.89%,0.94%,18.87%and 0.29%,respectively.Furthermore,the percentage of polysaccharides exhibited an increasing pattern across the forest successional series except for the sudden decreasing in the mixed forest,while the proportions of lignins,aromatics and aliphatics exhibited a decreasing pattern across the forest successional series except for the sudden increasing in the mixed forest.Consequently,the humification indices(HIs)were highest in the mixed forest compared to the other four successional stages,which means that the SOC quality in mixed forest was worse than other successional stages.In addition,the SOC stock,recalcitrant fractions and HIs decreased with increasing soil depth,while the polysaccharides exhibited an increasing pattern.These findings demonstrate that the mixed forest had higher SOC stock and worse SOC quality than other successional stages.The high proportion of SOC stock(66%at depth of 20-100 cm)and better SOC quality(lower HIs)indicate that deep soil have tremendous potential to store SOC and needs more attention under global chan ge.展开更多
In the middle and later stages of urbanization development,the growth of the real estate industry will stagnate,and urban renewal will become the mainstream.With the advancement of urban renewal,there are still proble...In the middle and later stages of urbanization development,the growth of the real estate industry will stagnate,and urban renewal will become the mainstream.With the advancement of urban renewal,there are still problems in improving the quality of cities in the stock era and their design strategies.This paper analyzed the Linping Old City organic renewal project and the Xishui River ecological governance project in the stock era of urban quality improvement by sorting out the current development status,historical background,planning types,and design strategies of quality improvement in the stock era from the perspective of urban renewal,combining with project overview,main problems,design methods,and design content.Urban renewal is the leading direction for promoting urban development and construction on a global scale,and countries formulate different plans and practices based on their local characteristics.Urban renewal strategies should be diversified,and focus on livable environments,urban characteristics,etc.,while considering human factors,green innovation,etc.,in order to achieve smart community management and enhance the economic and social benefits brought by urban attractiveness.For successful cases such as the Linping Old City and Xishui River ecological governance project,corresponding urban quality improvement strategies and implementation plans should be formulated according to local conditions,with emphasis on social participation and people’s livelihood improvement.This study can help urban planning pay more attention to rational utilization and upgrading of existing urban resources,adapt to the current urban development situation,and promote sustainable urban development.展开更多
In the realm of finance and economics, the search for reliable stock predictions remains a focal point for researchers [1]. Contrary to common belief, stock market prices are not merely random guesses, but rather powe...In the realm of finance and economics, the search for reliable stock predictions remains a focal point for researchers [1]. Contrary to common belief, stock market prices are not merely random guesses, but rather powerful tools that allow people to decide where to put their money, proving to be a significant aspect of finance. In this paper, by applying machine learning techniques, we propose to predict stock prices based on trends from previous years’ stock data using learning models, such as Linear Regression, MLP Regressor, Decision Tree Regressor and Random Forest Regressor. To enhance the model’s decision-making capabilities, the model was programmed to decide whether to sell or buy stocks using the predictions from the linear model. If the model anticipates an increase in stock prices, it suggests buying more stocks. On the contrary, if the model predicts a downturn, it suggests selling stocks in order to benefit the investor and enhance profitability. If the investor began with no stocks and $20,000, through the use of our model, the investor was able to make 161.3% profit. In another scenario where the investor holds 200 stocks and $10,000, the investor was able to make a 546.3% profit. Ultimately, the model results in profitable outcomes.展开更多
Stocks in the Chinese stock market can be divided into ST stocks and normal stocks, so to prevent investors from buying potential ST stocks, this paper first performs SMOTEENN oversampling data preprocessing for the S...Stocks in the Chinese stock market can be divided into ST stocks and normal stocks, so to prevent investors from buying potential ST stocks, this paper first performs SMOTEENN oversampling data preprocessing for the ST stock category, and selects 139 financial indicators and technical factor as predictive features. Then, it combines the Boruta algorithm and Copula entropy method for feature selection, effectively improving the machine learning model’s performance in ST stock classification, with the AUC values of the two models reaching 98% on the test set. In the model selection and optimization, this paper uses six major models, including logistic regression, XGBoost, AdaBoost, LightGBM, Catboost, and MLP, for modeling and optimizes them using the Optuna framework. Ultimately, XGBoost model is selected as the best model because its AUC value exceeds 95% and its running time is less. Finally, the XGBoost model is explained using the SHAP theory and the interaction between features is discovered, further improving the model’s accuracy and AUC value by about 0.6%, verifying the effectiveness of the model.展开更多
The research focuses on improving predictive accuracy in the financial sector through the exploration of machine learning algorithms for stock price prediction. The research follows an organized process combining Agil...The research focuses on improving predictive accuracy in the financial sector through the exploration of machine learning algorithms for stock price prediction. The research follows an organized process combining Agile Scrum and the Obtain, Scrub, Explore, Model, and iNterpret (OSEMN) methodology. Six machine learning models, namely Linear Forecast, Naive Forecast, Simple Moving Average with weekly window (SMA 5), Simple Moving Average with monthly window (SMA 20), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are compared and evaluated through Mean Absolute Error (MAE), with the LSTM model performing the best, showcasing its potential for practical financial applications. A Django web application “Predict It” is developed to implement the LSTM model. Ethical concerns related to predictive modeling in finance are addressed. Data quality, algorithm choice, feature engineering, and preprocessing techniques are emphasized for better model performance. The research acknowledges limitations and suggests future research directions, aiming to equip investors and financial professionals with reliable predictive models for dynamic markets.展开更多
A novel indicator called price-citation was proposed.Based on the company integrated patent database of China listed companies of common stocks(A-shares)with the stock price and the stock return rate data,more than tw...A novel indicator called price-citation was proposed.Based on the company integrated patent database of China listed companies of common stocks(A-shares)with the stock price and the stock return rate data,more than two thousand of A-shares from 2017 to 2020 were selected.The effect of the traditional patent forward citation and the price-citation for discriminating the stock return rate was thoroughly analyzed via ANOVA.The A-shares of forward citation counts above the average showed higher stock return rate means than the A-shares having patents but receiving no forward citations.The price-citation,combining both the financial and patent attributes,defined as the multiplication of the current stock price and the currently receiving forward citation count,showed its excellence in discriminating the stock return rate.The A-shares of higher price-citation showed significantly higher stock return rate means while the A-shares of lower price-citation showed significantly lowest stock return rate means.The price-citation effect had not been changed by COVID-19 though COVID-19 affected the social and economic environment to a considerable extent in 2020.展开更多
This study was conducted to assess the current stock of soil organic carbon under different agricultural land uses, soil types and soil depths in the Noun plain in western Cameroon. Three sites were selected for the s...This study was conducted to assess the current stock of soil organic carbon under different agricultural land uses, soil types and soil depths in the Noun plain in western Cameroon. Three sites were selected for the study, namely Mangoum, Makeka and Fossang, representative of the three dominant soil types of the noun plain (Andosols, Acrisols and Ferralsols). Three land uses were selected per site including natural vegetation, agroforest and crop field. Soil was sampled at three depths;0 - 20 cm, 20 - 40 cm, and 40 - 60 cm. Analysis of variance showed that soil type did not significantly influence carbon storage, but rather land uses and soil depth. SOCS decreased significantly with depth in all the sites, with an average stock of 66.3 ± 15.8 tC/ha at 0 - 20 cm, compared to an average stock of 33.3 ± 7.4 tC/ha at 40 - 60 cm. SOCS was significantly highest in the natural formation with 57.2 ± 19.7 tC/ha, and lowest in cultivated fields, at 37.7 ± 10.6 tC/ha. Andosols, with their high content of coarse fragments, stored less organic carbon than Ferralsols and Acrisols.展开更多
Gabonese’s estuary is an important coastal mangrove setting and soil plays a key role in mangrove carbon storage in mangrove forests. However, the spatial variation in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage remain unclear...Gabonese’s estuary is an important coastal mangrove setting and soil plays a key role in mangrove carbon storage in mangrove forests. However, the spatial variation in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage remain unclear. To address this gap, determining the SOC spatial variation in Gabonese’s estuarine is essential for better understanding the global carbon cycle. The present study compared soil organic carbon between northern and southern sites in different mangrove forest, Rhizophora racemosa and Avicennia germinans. The results showed that the mean SOC stocks at 1 m depth were 256.28 ± 127.29 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>. Among the different regions, SOC in northern zone was significantly (p p < 0.001). The deeper layers contained higher SOC stocks (254.62 ± 128.09 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) than upper layers (55.42 ± 25.37 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>). The study highlights that low deforestation rate have led to less CO<sub>2</sub> (705.3 Mg CO<sub>2</sub>e ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> - 922.62 Mg CO<sub>2</sub>e ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) emissions than most sediment carbon-rich mangroves in the world. These results highlight the influence of soil texture and mangrove forest types on the mangrove SOC stocks. The first national comparison of soil organic carbon stocks between mangroves and upland tropical forests indicated SOC stocks were two times more in mangroves soils (51.21 ± 45.00 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) than primary (20.33 ± 12.7 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>), savanna and cropland (21.71 ± 15.10 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>). We find that mangroves in this study emit lower dioxide-carbon equivalent emissions. This study highlights the importance of national inventories of soil organic carbon and can be used as a baseline on the role of mangroves in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation but the variation in SOC stocks indicates the need for further national data.展开更多
This study utilizes the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model to investigate the dynamic relationship between Chinese and U.S. stock markets amid t...This study utilizes the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model to investigate the dynamic relationship between Chinese and U.S. stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, a univariate GARCH model is developed to derive residual sequences, which are then used to estimate the DCC model parameters. The research reveals a significant rise in the interconnection between the Chinese and U.S. stock markets during the pandemic. The S&P 500 index displayed higher sensitivity and greater volatility in response to the pandemic, whereas the CSI 300 index showed superior resilience and stability. Analysis and model estimation suggest that the market’s dependence on historical data has intensified and its sensitivity to recent shocks has heightened. Predictions from the model indicate increased market volatility during the pandemic. While the model is proficient in capturing market trends, there remains potential for enhancing the accuracy of specific volatility predictions. The study proposes recommendations for policymakers and investors, highlighting the importance of improved cooperation in international financial market regulation and investor education.展开更多
The stock market, as one of the hotspots in the financial field, forms a data system with a huge volume of data and complex relationships between various factors, making stock price prediction an area of keen interest...The stock market, as one of the hotspots in the financial field, forms a data system with a huge volume of data and complex relationships between various factors, making stock price prediction an area of keen interest for further in-depth mining and research. Mathematical statistics methods struggle to deal with nonlinear relationships in practical applications, making it difficult to explore deep information about stocks. Meanwhile, machine learning methods, particularly neural network models and composite models, which have achieved outstanding results in other fields, are being applied to the stock market with significant results. However, researchers have found that these methods do not grasp the essential information of the data as well as expected. In response to these issues, researchers are exploring better neural network models and combining them with other methods to analyze stock data. Thus, this paper proposes the ABiGRU composite model, which combines the attention mechanism and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (GRU) that can effectively extract data features for stock price prediction research. Models such as LSTM, GRU, and Bi-LSTM are selected for comparative experiments. To ensure the credibility and representativeness of the research data, daily stock price indices of BYD are chosen for closing price prediction studies across different models. The results show that the ABiGRU model has a lower prediction error and better fitting effect on three index-based stock prices, enhancing the learning efficiency of the neural network model and demonstrating good prediction stability. This suggests that the ABiGRU model is highly adaptable for stock price prediction.展开更多
A comparative analysis of deep learning models and traditional statistical methods for stock price prediction uses data from the Nigerian stock exchange. Historical data, including daily prices and trading volumes, ar...A comparative analysis of deep learning models and traditional statistical methods for stock price prediction uses data from the Nigerian stock exchange. Historical data, including daily prices and trading volumes, are employed to implement models such as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA). These models are assessed over three-time horizons: short-term (1 year), medium-term (2.5 years), and long-term (5 years), with performance measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The stability of the time series is tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Results reveal that deep learning models, particularly LSTM, outperform traditional methods by capturing complex, nonlinear patterns in the data, resulting in more accurate predictions. However, these models require greater computational resources and offer less interpretability than traditional approaches. The findings highlight the potential of deep learning for improving financial forecasting and investment strategies. Future research could incorporate external factors such as social media sentiment and economic indicators, refine model architectures, and explore real-time applications to enhance prediction accuracy and scalability.展开更多
基金funded by National Key Research and Development Program(2023YFD220080430&2017YFD0600404)。
文摘Accurate estimations of biomass and its temporal dynamics are crucial for monitoring the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems and assessing forest carbon sequestration potentials.Recent studies have shown that integrating process-based models(PBMs)with remote sensing data can enhance simulations from stand to regional scales,significantly improving the ability to simulate forest growth and carbon stock dynamics.However,the utilization of PBMs for large-scale simulation of larch carbon storage distribution is still limited.In this study,we applied the parameterized 3-PG(Physiological Principles Predicting Growth)model across the Mengjiagang Forest Farm(MFF)to make broad-scale predictions of the biomass and carbon stocks of Larix olgensis plantation.The model was used to simulate average diameter at breast height(DBH)and total biomass,which were later validated with a wide range of observation data including sample plot data,forest management inventory data,and airborne laser scanning data.The results showed that the 3-PG model had relatively high accuracy for predicting both DBH and total biomass at stand and regional scale,with determination coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.88.Based on the estimation of total biomass,we successfully produced a carbon stock map of the Larix olgensis plantation in MFF with a spatial resolution of 20 m,which helps with relevant management advice.These findings indicate that the integration of 3-PG model and remote sensing data can well predict the biomass and carbon stock at regional and even larger scales.In addition,this integration facilitates the evaluation of forest carbon sequestration capacity and the development of forest management plans.
基金funded by the Comision Sectorial de Investigacion Cientifica(CSIC)[ID-501]the Agencia Nacional de Investigacion e Innovacion(ANII)[POS_EXT_2023_1_174913]。
文摘Savannas constitute a mixture of trees and shrub patches with a more continuous herbaceous understory.The contribution of this biome to the soil organic carbon(SOC)and above-ground biomass(AGB)carbon(C)stock globally is significant.However,they are frequently subjected to land use changes,promoting increases in CO_(2) emissions.In Uruguay,subtropical wooded savannas cover around 100,000 ha,of which approximately 28%is circumscribed to sodic soils(i.e.,subtropical halophytic wooded savannas).Nevertheless,there is little background about the contribution of each ecosystem component to the C stock as well as site-specific allometric equations.The study was conducted in 5 ha of subtropical halophytic wooded savannas of the national protected area Esteros y Algarrobales del Rio Uruguay.This work aimed to estimate the contribution of the main ecosystem components(e.g.,soil,trees,shrubs,and herbaceous plants)to the C stock.Site-specific allometric equations for the most frequent tree species and shrub genus were fitted based on basal diameter(BD)and total height(H).The fitted equations accounted for between 77%and 98%of the aerial biomass variance of Netuma affinis and Vachellia caven.For shrubs(Baccharis sp.),the adjusted equation accounted for 86%of total aerial biomass.C stock for the entire system was 116.71±11.07 Mg·ha^(-1),of which 90.7%was allocated in the soil,8.3%in the trees,0.8%in the herbaceous plants,and 0.2%in the shrubs.These results highlight the importance of subtropical halophytic wooded savannas as C sinks and their relevance in the mitigation of global warming under a climate change scenario.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(2022YFC3702701)the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission(21TQ015)the Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project,China(21230780200).
文摘Stock volatility constitutes an adverse psychological stressor,but few large-scale studies have focused on its impact on major adverse cardiovascular events(MACEs)and suicide.Here,we conducted an individual-level time-stratified case-crossover study to explore the association of daily stock volatility(daily returns and intra-daily oscillations for three kinds of stock indices)with MACEs and suicide among more than 12 million individual decedents from all counties in the mainland of China between 2013 and 2019.For daily stock returns,both stock increases and decreases were associated with increased mortal-ity risks of all MACEs and suicide.There were consistent and positive associations between intra-daily stock oscillations and mortality due to MACEs and suicide.The excess mortality risks occurred at the cur-rent day(lag 0 d),persisted for two days,and were greatest for suicide and hemorrhagic stroke.Taking the present-day Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index as an example,a 1%decrease in daily returns was associated with 0.74%-1.04%and 1.77%increases in mortality risks of MACEs and suicide,respectively;the corresponding risk increments were 0.57%-0.85%and 0.92%for a 1%increase in daily returns and 0.67%-0.77%and 1.09%for a 1%increase in intra-daily stock oscillations.The excess risks were more pro-nounced among individuals aged 65-74 years,males,and those with lower education levels.Our findings revealed considerable health risks linked to sociopsychological stressors,which are helpful for the gov-ernment and general public to mitigate the immediate cardiovascular and mental health risks associated with stock market volatility.
文摘Mango tilapia, Sarotherodon galilaeus is one of the most caught fish species in the Samandeni multi-species fishing sites of which, few data on its biology and exploitation are available. The study aimed to Assess the stock status of S. galilaeus. Sampling was conducted from March, 2021 to February 2022 based on commercial fish catches to analyze growth parameters, first sexual maturity size and harvest status of the stock. A total of 572 specimens including 297 females and 275 males were examined. The stock assessment was performed by using the Length based Bayesian method of Biomass (LBB) and that of growth by the ELEFAN method. The growth parameters showed a seasonality of growth and females appeared to grow faster than males. On the other hand, males had a greater asymptotic length than females. Results on the estimated length of fish at first maturity showed that females firstly reached the maturity compared to males. The relative biomass (B/B<sub>0</sub>) estimated for the stock was higher than the relative biomass that produces maximum sustainable yield (B<sub>MSY</sub>/B<sub>0</sub>) indicating healthy biomass. In addition, the length at first sexual maturity was less than the length at the first catch, indicating the absence of overfishing of growth. In addition, extending the study to the various stocks of the reservoir would be important for the sustainable management of the Samandeni high economic fishing area.
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant ZDBS-LY-DQC019)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFE0124300)+4 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32301344)Major Program of Institute of Applied EcologyChinese Academy of Sciences(IAEMP202201)supported by grants from the U.S.National Science Foundation(DEB 2240431)the Seeding Projects for Enabling Excellence and Distinction(SPEED)Program at Washington University in St.Louis。
文摘Biodiversity,large trees,and environmental conditions such as climate and soil have important effects on forest carbon stocks.However,recent studies in temperate forests suggest that the relative importance of these factors depends on tree mycorrhizal associations,whereby large-tree effects may be driven by ectomycorrhizal(EM)trees,diversity effects may be driven by arbuscular mycorrhizal(AM)trees,and environment effects may depend on differential climate and soil preferences of AM and EM trees.To test this hypothesis,we used forest-inventory data consisting of over 80,000 trees from 631 temperate-forest plots(30 m×30 m)across Northeast China to examine how biodiversity(species diversity and ecological uniqueness),large trees(top 1%of tree diameters),and environmental factors(climate and soil nutrients)differently regulate aboveground carbon stocks of AM trees,EM trees,and AM and EM trees combined(i.e.total aboveground carbon stock).We found that large trees had a positive effect on both AM and EM tree carbon stocks.However,biodiversity and environmental factors had opposite effects on AM vs.EM tree carbon stocks.Specifically,the two components of biodiversity had positive effects on AM tree carbon stocks,but negative effects on EM tree carbon stocks.Environmental heterogeneity(mean annual temperature and soil nutrients)also exhibited contrasting effects on AM and EM tree carbon stocks.Consequently,for the total carbon stock,the positive large-tree effect far surpasses the diversity and environment effect.This is mainly because when integrating AM and EM tree carbon stock into total carbon stock,the opposite diversity-effect(also environment-effect)on AM vs.EM tree carbon stock counteracts each other while the consistent positive large-tree effect on AM and EM tree carbon stock is amplified.In summary,this study emphasized a mycorrhizal viewpoint to better understand the determinants of overarching aboveground carbon profile across regional forests.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72173018).
文摘To systematically incorporate multiple influencing factors,the coupled-state frequency memory(Co-SFM)network is proposed.This model integrates Copula estimation with neural networks,fusing multilevel data information,which is then fed into downstream learning modules.Co-SFM employs an upstream fusion module to incorporate multilevel data,thereby constructing a macro-plate-micro data structure.This configuration helps identify and integrate characteristics from different data levels,facilitating a deeper understanding of the internal links within the financial system.In the downstream model,Co-SFM uses a state-frequency memory network to mine hidden frequency information within stock prices,and the multifrequency patterns of sequential data are modeled.Empirical results show that Co-SFM s prediction accuracy for stock price trends is significantly better than that of other models.This is especially evident in multistep medium and long-term trend predictions,where integrating multilevel data results in notably improved accuracy.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.32102310,32202484,and 32072520)the Shandong Key Research and Development Program,China(Grant Nos.2021LZGC007 and 2022TZXD009).
文摘Self-rooted apple stock is widely used for apple production.However,the shallowness of the adventitious roots in self-rooted apple stock leads to poor performance in the barren orchards of China.This is because of the considerable difference in the development of a gravitropic set-point angle(GSA)between self-rooted apple stock and seedling rootstock.Therefore,it is crucial to study the molecular mechanism of adventitious root GSA in self-rooted apple stock for breeding self-rooted and deep-rooted apple rootstock cultivars.An apple auxin response factor MdARF19 functioned to establish the adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity and auxin signals.MdARF19 bound directly to the MdPIN7 promoter,activating its transcriptional expression and thus regulating the formation of the adventitious root GSA in 12-2 self-rooted apple stock.However,MdARF19 influenced the expression of auxin efflux carriers(MdPIN3 and MdPIN10)and the establishment of adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity signals by direct activation of MdFLP.Our findings provide new information on the transcriptional regulation of MdPIN7 by auxin response factor MdARF19 in the regulation of the adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity and auxin signals.
基金funded by the Major Humanities and Social Sciences Research Projects in Zhejiang higher education institutions,grant number 2023QN082,awarded to Cheng ZhaoThe National Natural Science Foundation of China also provided funding,grant number 61902349,awarded to Cheng Zhao.
文摘The present study examines the impact of short-term public opinion sentiment on the secondary market,with a focus on the potential for such sentiment to cause dramatic stock price fluctuations and increase investment risk.The quantification of investment sentiment indicators and the persistent analysis of their impact has been a complex and significant area of research.In this paper,a structured multi-head attention stock index prediction method based adaptive public opinion sentiment vector is proposed.The proposedmethod utilizes an innovative approach to transform numerous investor comments on social platforms over time into public opinion sentiment vectors expressing complex sentiments.It then analyzes the continuous impact of these vectors on the market through the use of aggregating techniques and public opinion data via a structured multi-head attention mechanism.The experimental results demonstrate that the public opinion sentiment vector can provide more comprehensive feedback on market sentiment than traditional sentiment polarity analysis.Furthermore,the multi-head attention mechanism is shown to improve prediction accuracy through attention convergence on each type of input information separately.Themean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the proposedmethod is 0.463%,a reduction of 0.294% compared to the benchmark attention algorithm.Additionally,the market backtesting results indicate that the return was 24.560%,an improvement of 8.202% compared to the benchmark algorithm.These results suggest that themarket trading strategy based on thismethod has the potential to improve trading profits.
文摘We examine the impact of the short sell disclosure(SSD)regime on the stock lending market and investor behaviors,employing a staggered difference-indifference(DiD)methodology.Our research reveals that the introduction of the disclosure regime enhances market transparency,resulting in a diminished appeal of stock ownership in the lending market for active investors.This shift is accompanied by a reduction in information leakage risks and longer loan durations.Specifically,our analysis reveals a significant decrease in the risk of loan recall by 4.87%,accompanied by an average increase of 23.72%in loan duration for short selling activities.Furthermore,the cost associated with short-sell disclosure causes a decline in both lending supply and short demand.
基金the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.32001139,32071554)。
文摘Soil organic carbon(SOC)affects the function of terrestrial ecosystem and plays a vital role in global carbon cycle.Yet,large uncertainty still existed regarding the changes in SOC stock and quality with forest succession.Here,the stock and quality of SOC at 1-m soil profile were investigated across a subalpine forest series,including shrub,deciduous broad-leaved forest,broadleaf-conifer mixed forest,middle-age coniferous forest and mature coniferous forest,which located at southeast of Tibetan Plateau.The results showed that SOC stock ranged from 9.8 to29.9 kg·m^(-2),and exhibited a hump-shaped response pattern across the forest successional series.The highest and lowest SOC stock was observed in the mixed forest and shrub forest,respectively.The SOC stock had no significant relationships with soil temperature and litter stock,but was positively correlated with wood debris stock.Meanwhile,the average percentages of polysaccharides,lignins,aromatics and aliphatics based on FTIR spectroscopy were 79.89%,0.94%,18.87%and 0.29%,respectively.Furthermore,the percentage of polysaccharides exhibited an increasing pattern across the forest successional series except for the sudden decreasing in the mixed forest,while the proportions of lignins,aromatics and aliphatics exhibited a decreasing pattern across the forest successional series except for the sudden increasing in the mixed forest.Consequently,the humification indices(HIs)were highest in the mixed forest compared to the other four successional stages,which means that the SOC quality in mixed forest was worse than other successional stages.In addition,the SOC stock,recalcitrant fractions and HIs decreased with increasing soil depth,while the polysaccharides exhibited an increasing pattern.These findings demonstrate that the mixed forest had higher SOC stock and worse SOC quality than other successional stages.The high proportion of SOC stock(66%at depth of 20-100 cm)and better SOC quality(lower HIs)indicate that deep soil have tremendous potential to store SOC and needs more attention under global chan ge.
文摘In the middle and later stages of urbanization development,the growth of the real estate industry will stagnate,and urban renewal will become the mainstream.With the advancement of urban renewal,there are still problems in improving the quality of cities in the stock era and their design strategies.This paper analyzed the Linping Old City organic renewal project and the Xishui River ecological governance project in the stock era of urban quality improvement by sorting out the current development status,historical background,planning types,and design strategies of quality improvement in the stock era from the perspective of urban renewal,combining with project overview,main problems,design methods,and design content.Urban renewal is the leading direction for promoting urban development and construction on a global scale,and countries formulate different plans and practices based on their local characteristics.Urban renewal strategies should be diversified,and focus on livable environments,urban characteristics,etc.,while considering human factors,green innovation,etc.,in order to achieve smart community management and enhance the economic and social benefits brought by urban attractiveness.For successful cases such as the Linping Old City and Xishui River ecological governance project,corresponding urban quality improvement strategies and implementation plans should be formulated according to local conditions,with emphasis on social participation and people’s livelihood improvement.This study can help urban planning pay more attention to rational utilization and upgrading of existing urban resources,adapt to the current urban development situation,and promote sustainable urban development.
文摘In the realm of finance and economics, the search for reliable stock predictions remains a focal point for researchers [1]. Contrary to common belief, stock market prices are not merely random guesses, but rather powerful tools that allow people to decide where to put their money, proving to be a significant aspect of finance. In this paper, by applying machine learning techniques, we propose to predict stock prices based on trends from previous years’ stock data using learning models, such as Linear Regression, MLP Regressor, Decision Tree Regressor and Random Forest Regressor. To enhance the model’s decision-making capabilities, the model was programmed to decide whether to sell or buy stocks using the predictions from the linear model. If the model anticipates an increase in stock prices, it suggests buying more stocks. On the contrary, if the model predicts a downturn, it suggests selling stocks in order to benefit the investor and enhance profitability. If the investor began with no stocks and $20,000, through the use of our model, the investor was able to make 161.3% profit. In another scenario where the investor holds 200 stocks and $10,000, the investor was able to make a 546.3% profit. Ultimately, the model results in profitable outcomes.
文摘Stocks in the Chinese stock market can be divided into ST stocks and normal stocks, so to prevent investors from buying potential ST stocks, this paper first performs SMOTEENN oversampling data preprocessing for the ST stock category, and selects 139 financial indicators and technical factor as predictive features. Then, it combines the Boruta algorithm and Copula entropy method for feature selection, effectively improving the machine learning model’s performance in ST stock classification, with the AUC values of the two models reaching 98% on the test set. In the model selection and optimization, this paper uses six major models, including logistic regression, XGBoost, AdaBoost, LightGBM, Catboost, and MLP, for modeling and optimizes them using the Optuna framework. Ultimately, XGBoost model is selected as the best model because its AUC value exceeds 95% and its running time is less. Finally, the XGBoost model is explained using the SHAP theory and the interaction between features is discovered, further improving the model’s accuracy and AUC value by about 0.6%, verifying the effectiveness of the model.
文摘The research focuses on improving predictive accuracy in the financial sector through the exploration of machine learning algorithms for stock price prediction. The research follows an organized process combining Agile Scrum and the Obtain, Scrub, Explore, Model, and iNterpret (OSEMN) methodology. Six machine learning models, namely Linear Forecast, Naive Forecast, Simple Moving Average with weekly window (SMA 5), Simple Moving Average with monthly window (SMA 20), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are compared and evaluated through Mean Absolute Error (MAE), with the LSTM model performing the best, showcasing its potential for practical financial applications. A Django web application “Predict It” is developed to implement the LSTM model. Ethical concerns related to predictive modeling in finance are addressed. Data quality, algorithm choice, feature engineering, and preprocessing techniques are emphasized for better model performance. The research acknowledges limitations and suggests future research directions, aiming to equip investors and financial professionals with reliable predictive models for dynamic markets.
基金support from Ministry of Science and Technology,Taiwan,R.O.C.under Grant No.MOST 109-2410-H-011-021-MY3.
文摘A novel indicator called price-citation was proposed.Based on the company integrated patent database of China listed companies of common stocks(A-shares)with the stock price and the stock return rate data,more than two thousand of A-shares from 2017 to 2020 were selected.The effect of the traditional patent forward citation and the price-citation for discriminating the stock return rate was thoroughly analyzed via ANOVA.The A-shares of forward citation counts above the average showed higher stock return rate means than the A-shares having patents but receiving no forward citations.The price-citation,combining both the financial and patent attributes,defined as the multiplication of the current stock price and the currently receiving forward citation count,showed its excellence in discriminating the stock return rate.The A-shares of higher price-citation showed significantly higher stock return rate means while the A-shares of lower price-citation showed significantly lowest stock return rate means.The price-citation effect had not been changed by COVID-19 though COVID-19 affected the social and economic environment to a considerable extent in 2020.
文摘This study was conducted to assess the current stock of soil organic carbon under different agricultural land uses, soil types and soil depths in the Noun plain in western Cameroon. Three sites were selected for the study, namely Mangoum, Makeka and Fossang, representative of the three dominant soil types of the noun plain (Andosols, Acrisols and Ferralsols). Three land uses were selected per site including natural vegetation, agroforest and crop field. Soil was sampled at three depths;0 - 20 cm, 20 - 40 cm, and 40 - 60 cm. Analysis of variance showed that soil type did not significantly influence carbon storage, but rather land uses and soil depth. SOCS decreased significantly with depth in all the sites, with an average stock of 66.3 ± 15.8 tC/ha at 0 - 20 cm, compared to an average stock of 33.3 ± 7.4 tC/ha at 40 - 60 cm. SOCS was significantly highest in the natural formation with 57.2 ± 19.7 tC/ha, and lowest in cultivated fields, at 37.7 ± 10.6 tC/ha. Andosols, with their high content of coarse fragments, stored less organic carbon than Ferralsols and Acrisols.
文摘Gabonese’s estuary is an important coastal mangrove setting and soil plays a key role in mangrove carbon storage in mangrove forests. However, the spatial variation in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage remain unclear. To address this gap, determining the SOC spatial variation in Gabonese’s estuarine is essential for better understanding the global carbon cycle. The present study compared soil organic carbon between northern and southern sites in different mangrove forest, Rhizophora racemosa and Avicennia germinans. The results showed that the mean SOC stocks at 1 m depth were 256.28 ± 127.29 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>. Among the different regions, SOC in northern zone was significantly (p p < 0.001). The deeper layers contained higher SOC stocks (254.62 ± 128.09 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) than upper layers (55.42 ± 25.37 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>). The study highlights that low deforestation rate have led to less CO<sub>2</sub> (705.3 Mg CO<sub>2</sub>e ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> - 922.62 Mg CO<sub>2</sub>e ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) emissions than most sediment carbon-rich mangroves in the world. These results highlight the influence of soil texture and mangrove forest types on the mangrove SOC stocks. The first national comparison of soil organic carbon stocks between mangroves and upland tropical forests indicated SOC stocks were two times more in mangroves soils (51.21 ± 45.00 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) than primary (20.33 ± 12.7 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>), savanna and cropland (21.71 ± 15.10 MgC ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>). We find that mangroves in this study emit lower dioxide-carbon equivalent emissions. This study highlights the importance of national inventories of soil organic carbon and can be used as a baseline on the role of mangroves in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation but the variation in SOC stocks indicates the need for further national data.
文摘This study utilizes the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model to investigate the dynamic relationship between Chinese and U.S. stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, a univariate GARCH model is developed to derive residual sequences, which are then used to estimate the DCC model parameters. The research reveals a significant rise in the interconnection between the Chinese and U.S. stock markets during the pandemic. The S&P 500 index displayed higher sensitivity and greater volatility in response to the pandemic, whereas the CSI 300 index showed superior resilience and stability. Analysis and model estimation suggest that the market’s dependence on historical data has intensified and its sensitivity to recent shocks has heightened. Predictions from the model indicate increased market volatility during the pandemic. While the model is proficient in capturing market trends, there remains potential for enhancing the accuracy of specific volatility predictions. The study proposes recommendations for policymakers and investors, highlighting the importance of improved cooperation in international financial market regulation and investor education.
文摘The stock market, as one of the hotspots in the financial field, forms a data system with a huge volume of data and complex relationships between various factors, making stock price prediction an area of keen interest for further in-depth mining and research. Mathematical statistics methods struggle to deal with nonlinear relationships in practical applications, making it difficult to explore deep information about stocks. Meanwhile, machine learning methods, particularly neural network models and composite models, which have achieved outstanding results in other fields, are being applied to the stock market with significant results. However, researchers have found that these methods do not grasp the essential information of the data as well as expected. In response to these issues, researchers are exploring better neural network models and combining them with other methods to analyze stock data. Thus, this paper proposes the ABiGRU composite model, which combines the attention mechanism and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (GRU) that can effectively extract data features for stock price prediction research. Models such as LSTM, GRU, and Bi-LSTM are selected for comparative experiments. To ensure the credibility and representativeness of the research data, daily stock price indices of BYD are chosen for closing price prediction studies across different models. The results show that the ABiGRU model has a lower prediction error and better fitting effect on three index-based stock prices, enhancing the learning efficiency of the neural network model and demonstrating good prediction stability. This suggests that the ABiGRU model is highly adaptable for stock price prediction.
文摘A comparative analysis of deep learning models and traditional statistical methods for stock price prediction uses data from the Nigerian stock exchange. Historical data, including daily prices and trading volumes, are employed to implement models such as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA). These models are assessed over three-time horizons: short-term (1 year), medium-term (2.5 years), and long-term (5 years), with performance measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The stability of the time series is tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Results reveal that deep learning models, particularly LSTM, outperform traditional methods by capturing complex, nonlinear patterns in the data, resulting in more accurate predictions. However, these models require greater computational resources and offer less interpretability than traditional approaches. The findings highlight the potential of deep learning for improving financial forecasting and investment strategies. Future research could incorporate external factors such as social media sentiment and economic indicators, refine model architectures, and explore real-time applications to enhance prediction accuracy and scalability.