An improved interval model updating method via adaptive Kriging models

Interval model updating(IMU)methods have been widely used in uncertain model updating due to their low requirements for sample data.However,the surrogate model in IMU methods mostly adopts the one-time construction method.This makes the accuracy of the surrogate model highly dependent on the experience of users and affects the accuracy of IMU methods.Therefore,an improved IMU method via the adaptive Kriging models is proposed.This method transforms the objective function of the IMU problem into two deterministic global optimization problems about the upper bound and the interval diameter through universal grey numbers.These optimization problems are addressed through the adaptive Kriging models and the particle swarm optimization(PSO)method to quantify the uncertain parameters,and the IMU is accomplished.During the construction of these adaptive Kriging models,the sample space is gridded according to sensitivity information.Local sampling is then performed in key subspaces based on the maximum mean square error(MMSE)criterion.The interval division coefficient and random sampling coefficient are adaptively adjusted without human interference until the model meets accuracy requirements.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example of a three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring system and an experimental example of a butted cylindrical shell.The results show that the updated results of the interval model are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Modeling constitutive relationship of 6013 aluminum alloy during hot plane strain compression based on Kriging method

Hot plane strain compression tests of 6013 aluminum alloy were conducted within the temperature range of 613?773 K and the strain rate range of 0.001?10 s?1. Based on the corrected experimental data with temperature compensation, Kriging method is selected to model the constitutive relationship among flow stress, temperature, strain rate and strain. The predictability and reliability of the constructed Kriging model are evaluated by statistical measures, comparative analysis and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV). The accuracy of Kriging model is validated by the R-value of 0.999 and the AARE of 0.478%. Meanwhile, its superiority has been demonstrated while comparing with the improved Arrhenius-type model. Furthermore, the generalization capability of Kriging model is identified by LOO-CV with 25 times of testing. It is indicated that Kriging method is competent to develop accurate model for describing the hot deformation behavior and predicting the flow stress even beyond the experimental conditions in hot compression tests.

基于Kriging模型的多次尝试差分进化贝叶斯有限元模型修正

标准差分进化自适应Metropolis(differential evolution adaptive Metropolis,DREAM)算法需进行多条马氏链并行计算,存在收敛效率低和计算成本高的问题。为此,提出一种基于Kriging模型的多次尝试差分进化贝叶斯有限元模型修正(multiple-try differential evolution adaptive Metropolis with“ZS”,MT-DREAM(ZS))框架。该框架在DREAM的基础上引入历史向量差分采样、斯诺克更新以及多次尝试Metropolis抽样,并利用Kriging模型代替有限元模型进行随机抽样,实现利用极少数并行链便可快速探索多维修正参数后验分布。利用固结钢板梁模型试验,比较了DREAM和MT-DREAM(ZS)的修正效果。结果表明:MT-DREAM(ZS)可实现马尔科夫链的快速收敛,其收敛效率较DREAM提升了3.42倍,且修正结果精度和稳定性有提升;Kriging模型可大幅度降低计算成本。所提框架为解决多参数不确定模型修正中的收敛效率低和计算成本高等问题提供了一种新思路。

基于Kriging插值代理模型的轴流式止回阀多目标优化

基于Kriging插值代理模型,对轴流式止回阀的各项性能进行综合优化,具体的优化目标为:降低正向流阻;减小阀芯振动;提升止回性能。通过试验设计方案找到影响轴流式止回阀正向流阻的主要结构参数因素,并以其作为优化对象,通过Kriging插值法拟合主要结构参数对应的性能样本点,在保证拟合精度的情况下,使用NSGA-II遗传算法同时对3个主要结构参数进行多目标优化,得到了三目标Pareto前沿,经过权衡不同因素对性能指标的影响大小,最终得到了综合性能最优的结构参数为:阀瓣丰满度系数α_(1)=2.199,阀芯长度L=386.322 mm,阀芯半径R=113.997 mm。其对应的止回阀性能为:正向出口流量Q=161.839 kg/s,正向出口流速v=3.30235 m/s,止回阀进口压力p=97632.2287 Pa。相比优化之前,阀门正向流阻减小了1.2%,阀芯振动降低了0.24%,止回性能提升了2.3%。

基于多峰优化Kriging模型与距离相关系数的高速列车动力学参数多输出灵敏度分析

高速列车动力学参数较多,有多个动力学性能的评价指标。综合考虑这些动力学指标进行参数灵敏度分析,对高速列车动力学参数的恰当匹配具有重要意义。现有的单输出灵敏度分析技术难以准确度量参数对车辆动力学综合性能的影响。为避免这一缺陷,本文引入了一种新的基于距离相关系数的多输出灵敏度分析技术。该方法通过求解单个输入与多个输出变量之间的距离相关系数,实现多输出全局灵敏度分析的目的。为提高灵敏度分析的效率,建立了多个动力学指标与输入参数的Kriging模型;为提高近似模型的精度,引入了一种新颖的多峰优化算法对Kriging模型的超参数进行全局寻优。与传统单目标智能优化算法不同,该优化算法通过引入种群差异指标,将单目标优化问题转化为双目标优化问题,从而增加了子代种群的多样性,避免了传统优化算法易于陷入局部最优解的问题。基于所提方法,以和谐号动车组动车为例,研究了多个动力学指标的多输出全局灵敏度。结果表明:由于增强了种群多样性,所提的超参数优化方法对Kriging模型精度和稳定性提升效果明显;基于距离相关系数的灵敏度分析方法能够更加合理地识别出对车辆动力学综合性能影响较大的参数,排除几乎没有影响的参数。

基于Kriging的多阶段加点策略及离心叶轮汽蚀优化

为了实现燃油离心泵汽蚀特性智能优化设计,提出一种基于Kriging的多阶段主动学习加点策略。重点是建立3个阶段的加点策略,并明确各阶段加点策略的切换判据。基于一维函数、多维函数等测试函数,与单加点策略对比以验证多阶段主动学习加点策略的有效性。进而,以某型燃油离心泵为例,完成所提出加点策略在其汽蚀特性的优化应用。测试函数算例结果表明:多阶段主动学习加点策略达到相同精度所需时间稍长于单MSE策略,优于单EI策略与单CV策略;但相比单MSE策略,全局最优解局部精度更高。离心泵汽蚀特性优化结果表明:优化泵进口处压力损失降低且进口处回流、旋涡等局部流动减弱,蜗壳内压力梯度增大且其出口处旋涡流动减弱;优化泵的汽蚀系数提高30.83%,汽蚀余量下降9.14%,汽蚀比转数下降7.17%,泵内气体含量下降17.27%,所提出的方法有效地提高了离心泵的抗汽蚀性能。

应用时空复合趋势面Kriging方法插值地表沉降

通过布设监测点可反映地表沉降变化趋势,确保施工和运营期间安全,但沉降监测点数量有限,且易受施工作业、天气等因素干扰导致数据缺失或污染,因此需对监测区域数据进行插值处理。针对采用传统地统计插值方法估计地铁地表沉降趋势精度较低的问题,提出了一种基于时空复合趋势面的Kriging插值方法。以乌鲁木齐地铁3号线2017年6月24日—9月3日共15期地铁地表沉降观测值为实验数据,分别采用两种方法对沉降监测点缺失数据进行插补。结果表明,相较于传统方法,基于时空复合趋势面的Kriging插值方法的拟合精度更高,RMSE可降低约35%。

基于PSO-Kriging算法的三维地质建模技术研究

三维地质模型的构建对于理解和预测地下结构至关重要。地质钻孔数据能够反映岩体空间分布和地质构造特征,本研究以小保当一号煤矿11盘区内的23个地质钻孔数据为基础,采用添加虚拟地层的方法解决了地层缺失与地层重复现象,构建共计27层地层的三维地质模型以及二维剖面模型。此外,针对传统的克里金方法在处理复杂地质数据参数选择困难的问题,采用粒子群算法对传统克里金插值方法中的块金值(C 0)、偏基台值(C)和变程(a)三个关键参数进行寻优,从而克服普通克里金插值参数选择的主观性和不确定性,采用实际验证法选取了研究区内四个钻孔来对比插值结果,结果表明经过PSO优化的Kriging算法在X3-1、X3-2、K3-4、K3-5四个钻孔的RMSE值分别降低至1.184、1.267、1.606、1.560,相比于Kriging的RMSE平均降低了31%,且PSO-Kriging算法在四个钻孔处对2-2煤层的插值结果与实际值相比较误差分别为1.00 m、0.01 m、0.11 m和0.03 m,比Kriging插值结果更接近实际值,表明了所提方法的有效性和优越性。

基于Kriging代理模型的无刷双馈发电机转子优化设计

无刷双馈发电机由于其自身没有电刷、滑环等结构特点,因此被认为是最有希望成为风力发电系统的主流发电机之一。无刷双馈发电机是依靠转子的磁场调制机理实现机电能量转换,其转子的耦合能力是影响电机性能的重要因素。因此本文提出了一种串联笼条辅助磁障转子的新型转子结构,分析了该种转子不同结构参数对电机性能的影响,并提出一种基于Kriging代理模型的多目标差分进化算法的无刷双馈发电机转子优化设计方法。首先建立该种新型转子的参数化模型,通过Kriging代理模型建立优化变量与优化目标之间的响应关系,再利用多目标差分进化算法找到最优的变量组合,最后通过有限元仿真对电机的性能进行分析。

基于Kriging模型与FORM的钢板组合梁桥结构优化设计

考虑材料参数的不确定性以及设计变量多重约束条件的影响,提出了基于可靠性分析的钢板组合梁桥结构优化设计方法。首先,利用拉丁超立方试验设计(Latin hypercube design,LHD)构建试验组合方案,并通过有限元分析获取试验设计组合下的最大挠度响应值。基于获取的训练样本,构建能够表征结构最大挠度值与随机输入之间映射关系的Kriging代理模型。基于建立的代理模型,以钢结构截面积最小化为目标函数,建立符合规范要求与可靠度约束的优化数学模型,并采用一阶可靠性方法(first order reliability method,FORM),实现设计变量优化。通过比较具有相同设计变量上限,但下限分别为初始值的80%和70%两种优化设计方案,评估了两者在相同阈值以及不同阈值下设计变量的优化结果。最后对方案二在阈值为17 mm下的优化结果进行极限状态验算。结果表明:两个优化设计方案在阈值为17 mm下的优化结果更具合理性,并且方案二在同一阈值下具有更高的优化程度。随着阈值增加,优化程度增加,且腹板高度在较大阈值下对结果影响更大,而翼缘宽度在较小阈值下影响更大。

Comparison of semivariogram models for kriging monthly rainfall in eastern China

An exploratory spatial data analysis method (ESDA) was designed Apr.28,2002 for kriging monthly rainfall. Samples were monthly rainfall observed at 61 weather stations in eastern China over the period 1961-1998. Comparison of five semivariogram models (Spherical, Exponential, Linear, Gaussian and Rational Quadratic) indicated that kriging fulfills the objective of finding better ways to estimate interpolation weights and can provide error information for monthly rainfall interpolation. ESDA yielded the three most common forms of experimental semivariogram for monthly rainfall in the area. All five models were appropriate for monthly rainfall interpolation but under different circumstances. Spherical, Exponential and Linear models perform as smoothing interpolator of the data, whereas Gaussian and Rational Quadratic models serve as an exact interpolator. Spherical, Exponential and Linear models tend to underestimate the values. On the contrary, Gaussian and Rational Quadratic models tend to overestimate the values. Since the suitable model for a specific month usually is not unique and each model does not show any bias toward one or more specific months, an ESDA is recommended for a better interpolation result.

Tunnel face reliability analysis using active learning Kriging model——Case of a two-layer soils

This paper is devoted to the probabilistic stability analysis of a tunnel face excavated in a two-layer soil. The interface of the soil layers is assumed to be positioned above the tunnel roof. In the framework of limit analysis, a rotational failure mechanism is adopted to describe the face failure considering different shear strength parameters in the two layers. The surrogate Kriging model is introduced to replace the actual performance function to perform a Monte Carlo simulation. An active learning function is used to train the Kriging model which can ensure an efficient tunnel face failure probability prediction without loss of accuracy. The deterministic stability analysis is given to validate the proposed tunnel face failure model. Subsequently, the number of initial sampling points, the correlation coefficient, the distribution type and the coefficient of variability of random variables are discussed to show their influences on the failure probability. The proposed approach is an advisable alternative for the tunnel face stability assessment and can provide guidance for tunnel design.

Dynamic characteristic analysis of whole machine tools based on Kriging model

In order to study the variation of machine tools’dynamic characteristics in the manufacturing space,a Kriging approximate model is proposed.Finite element method(FEM)is employed on the platform of ANSYS to establish finite element(FE)model with the dynamic characteristic of combined interface for a milling machine,which is newly designed for producing aero engine blades by a certain enterprise group in China.The stiffness and damping of combined interfaces are adjusted by using adaptive simulated annealing algorithm with the optimizing software of iSIGHT in the process of FE model update according to experimental modal analysis(EMA)results.The Kriging approximate model is established according to the finite element analysis results utilizing orthogonal design samples by taking into account of the range of configuration parameters.On the basis of the Kriging approximate model,the response surfaces between key response parameter and configuration parameters are obtained.The results indicate that configuration parameters have great effects on dynamic characteristics of machine tools,and the Kriging approximate model is an effective and rapid method for estimating dynamic characteristics of machine tools in the manufacturing space.

Performance Comparison of Two Meta-Model for the Application to Finite Element Model Updating of Structures

To investigate the application of meta-model for finite element( FE) model updating of structures,the performance of two popular meta-model,i. e.,Kriging model and response surface model( RSM),were compared in detail. Firstly,above two kinds of meta-model were introduced briefly. Secondly,some key issues of the application of meta-model to FE model updating of structures were proposed and discussed,and then some advices were presented in order to select a reasonable meta-model for the purpose of updating the FE model of structures. Finally,the procedure of FE model updating based on meta-model was implemented by updating the FE model of a truss bridge model with the measured modal parameters. The results showed that the Kriging model was more proper for FE model updating of complex structures.

一种基于自适应Kriging集成模型的结构可靠性分析方法

基于Kriging模型的复杂结构可靠性分析结果高度依赖于Kriging模型的拟合精度,在构建Kriging模型的过程中,不同相关函数和回归函数的选择均会影响模型精度。为解决模型的不确定性对可靠性分析结果的影响,同时兼顾计算效率和精度,基于Kriging模型和蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)方法,提出了一种结合自适应集成策略和主动学习函数的结构可靠度计算方法。该方法考虑Kriging模型的建模不确定性,将多种Kriging模型组合,构建了一种综合考虑样本点贡献和样本点距离的主动学习函数,通过主动学习函数迭代更新集成Kriging模型直至满足收敛条件,最后通过构建的集成Kriging模型和MCS方法进行结构可靠性分析。数值算例和工程算例结果验证了所提方法的有效性,该方法与其他主要方法相比稳健性更好,在保证计算精度的同时,计算效率更高。

基于主动学习Kriging模型的改进一次可靠度方法

结构可靠度分析的一次可靠度方法在每一迭代中均涉及迭代点的函数值及梯度值计算,但后续迭代过程不能充分利用前期迭代过程中迭代点的计算结果,因此计算效率有待于进一步提升。考虑到迭代后期迭代点在局部区域内波动,若以已有迭代结果为基础建立代理模型进行迭代后期迭代点的函数值及梯度值计算将有助于改善一次可靠度方法的计算效率。为此,该文在将一次可靠度方法的迭代过程分为全局搜索阶段与局部搜索阶段的基础上,针对两个阶段分别采用不同的计算策略,即全局搜索阶段沿用已有一次可靠度方法的迭代过程,在局部搜索阶段则基于全局搜索阶段的迭代结果建立Kriging模型,并引入可评估Kriging模型在迭代点处精度的学习函数,实现局部搜索阶段迭代点的高效率计算,从而提出了具有更高计算效率的改进一次可靠度方法。数值算例和工程算例的计算结果表明建议方法在保持精度不变的情况下,可显著提高一次可靠度方法的计算效率。

基于自适应Kriging模型的双螺旋轴可靠性分析

双螺旋轴是高速水稻插秧机的关键部分,其回转槽面在强轴向力作用下容易破坏失效,因此对双螺旋轴进行可靠性分析十分重要.针对传统方法获得其可靠度耗资大、时间长的问题,采用自适应Kriging模型结合Monte Carlo模拟的可靠性分析方法(AK-MCS)对双螺旋轴进行可靠性分析,以减少计算成本、提高计算效率.根据双螺旋轴的工况条件,考虑材料密度、工作载荷、工作温度3个参数对其所受挤压应力的影响,进行可靠性分析.分析结果表明:在许用应力值为613.21 MPa的条件下,计算得出双螺旋轴的可靠度为0.9986.与单一的Monte Carlo模拟法进行对比,本文提出的评估方法在仿真效率上有明显优势,为双螺旋轴可靠性分析提供了一种思路.

Global optimization for ducted coaxial-rotors aircraft based on Kriging model and improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

To improve the operational efficiency of global optimization in engineering, Kriging model was established to simplify the mathematical model for calculations. Ducted coaxial-rotors aircraft was taken as an example and Fluent software was applied to the virtual prototype simulations. Through simulation sample points, the total lift of the ducted coaxial-rotors aircraft was obtained. The Kriging model was then constructed, and the function was fitted. Improved particle swarm optimization(PSO) was also utilized for the global optimization of the Kriging model of the ducted coaxial-rotors aircraft for the determination of optimized global coordinates. Finally, the optimized results were simulated by Fluent. The results show that the Kriging model and the improved PSO algorithm significantly improve the lift performance of ducted coaxial-rotors aircraft and computer operational efficiency.

基于Kriging模型的主轴箱多目标尺寸优化

以自研五轴工具磨床为研究对象,利用Inventor建立其三维模型,导入ANSYS Workbench建立其整机有限元模型,通过对整机的模态分析与谐响应分析确定主轴箱为影响整机动态特性的关键部件。对主轴箱进行静动态特性分析,以主轴箱1阶固有频率、几何质量与最大变形量为目标函数,以主轴箱各壁厚以及斜度等为设计变量,基于Kriging法建立其响应面模型,对其进行多目标优化,从而得出最优Pareto解集,最后对优化后主轴箱进行验证。结果表明:主轴箱的1阶固有频率从113.03 Hz提升至144.50 Hz,提升了27.84%,几何质量减少了3.83%,最大变形量减少了10.31%,主轴箱综合性能显著提高。

基于Kriging模型的船舶主机隔离系统抗冲击优化

为了提高系统的抗冲击性能和优化效率,本文以限位隔离系统的刚度阻尼等7个参数为设计变量,以系统冲击响应中的相对位移响应和绝对加速度响最大峰值为响应值建立Kriging代理模型。通过NSGA-II多目标优化算法对构建的代理模型进行多目标优化,优化目标为相对位移响应和绝对加速度响最大峰值两者和的最小值。与初始方案相比,优化后系统相对位移响应降低了27.139%,绝对加速度响应降低了37.846%。结果表明:建立的代理模型对隔离系统的冲击响应有较精确的预报作用,优化后船舶主机隔离系统的抗冲击得到明显提高。