THE KUROSHIO MEANDER/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONNECTION AND DROUGHT/FLOOD CYCLES IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER

In response to a suggestion that the large meander of the Kuroshio is a good predictor of droughtsin the Changjiang River Valley, it is argued that more recent inceptions of the meander lend statisticalweigh to the belief that the large meander is itself a consequence of E1 Nino, and hence of the SouthernOscillation. The meander usually lags. Thus, if the meander reliably predicts droughts, the Tahiti componentof the Southern Oscillation will usually give six months’ extra warning.

Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method to the Predictability Study of the Kuroshio Large Meander

A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations. The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations. We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander （KLM） state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation （CNOP-P） method. Because of their relatively large uncertainties, three model parameters were considered： the interracial friction coefficient, the wind-stress amplitude, and the lateral friction coefficient. We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently, and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 （SPG2） algorithm. Similarly, the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation （CNOP-I） method. Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days. But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P. The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored. Hence, to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model, the initial conditions should first be improved, the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.

Identifying sensitive areas of adaptive observations for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a shallow-water model

Sensitive areas for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a 1.5-layer,shallowwater ocean model were investigated using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) and first singular vector(FSV) methods.A series of sensitivity experiments were designed to test the sensitivity of sensitive areas within the numerical model.The following results were obtained:(1) the effect of initial CNOP and FSV patterns in their sensitive areas is greater than that of the same patterns in randomly selected areas,with the effect of the initial CNOP patterns in CNOP sensitive areas being the greatest;(2) both CNOP- and FSV-type initial errors grow more quickly than random errors;(3) the effect of random errors superimposed on the sensitive areas is greater than that of random errors introduced into randomly selected areas,and initial errors in the CNOP sensitive areas have greater effects on final forecasts.These results reveal that the sensitive areas determined using the CNOP are more sensitive than those of FSV and other randomly selected areas.In addition,ideal hindcasting experiments were conducted to examine the validity of the sensitive areas.The results indicate that reduction(or elimination) of CNOP-type errors in CNOP sensitive areas at the initial time has a greater forecast benefit than the reduction(or elimination) of FSVtype errors in FSV sensitive areas.These results suggest that the CNOP method is suitable for determining sensitive areas in the prediction of the Kuroshio large-meander path.

Optimal Initial Error Growth in the Prediction of the Kuroshio Large Meander Based on a High-resolution Regional Ocean Model

Based on the high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method, this study explored the effects of optimal initial errors on the prediction of the Kuroshio large meander(LM) path, and the growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was revealed. For each LM event, two types of initial error(denoted as CNOP1 and CNOP2) were obtained. Their large amplitudes were found located mainly in the upper 2500 m in the upstream region of the LM, i.e., southeast of Kyushu. Furthermore, we analyzed the patterns and nonlinear evolution of the two types of CNOP. We found CNOP1 tends to strengthen the LM path through southwestward extension. Conversely,CNOP2 has almost the opposite pattern to CNOP1, and it tends to weaken the LM path through northeastward contraction.The growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was clarified through eddy-energetics analysis. The results indicated that energy from the background field is transferred to the error field because of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities. Thus, it is inferred that both barotropic and baroclinic processes play important roles in the growth of CNOP-type optimal initial errors.

Identifying the sensitive areas in targeted observation for predicting the Kuroshio large meander path in a regional ocean model

With the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS),this paper investigates the sensitive areas in targeted observation for predicting the Kuroshio large meander(LM)path using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach.To identify the sensitive areas,the optimal initial errors(OIEs)featuring the largest nonlinear evolution in the LM prediction are first calculated;the resulting OIEs are localized mainly in the upper 2500 m over the LM upstream region,and their spatial structure has certain similarities with that of the optimal triggering perturbation.Based on this spatial structure,the sensitive areas are successfully identified,located southeast of Kyushu in the region(29°–32°N,131°–134°E).A series of sensitivity experiments indicate that both the positions and the spatial structure of initial errors have important effects on the LM prediction,verifying the validity of the sensitive areas.Then,the effect of targeted observation in the sensitive areas is evaluated through observing system simulation experiments.When targeted observation is implemented in the identified sensitive areas,the prediction errors are effectively reduced,and the prediction skill of the LM event is improved significantly.This provides scientific guidance for ocean observations related to enhancing the prediction skill of the LM event.

Optimal precursor of the transition from Kuroshio large meander to straight path

We used the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method to explore the optimal precursor of the transition from Kuroshio large meander(LM) to straight path within a barotropic inflowoutflow model,and found that large amplitudes of the optimal precursor are mainly located in the east of Kyushu,which implies that perturbations in the region are important for the transition from LM to straight path.Furthermore,we investigated the transition processes caused by the optimal precursor,and found that these processes could be divided into three stages.In the first stage,a cyclonic eddy is advected to the formation region of the Kuroshio large meander,which enhances the LM path and causes a cyclonic eddy to shed from the Kuroshio mainstream.This process causes the LM path to change into a small meander path.Subsequently,the small meander is maintained for a period because the vorticity advection is balanced by the beta effect in the second stage.In the third stage,the small meander weakens and the straight path ultimately forms.The positive vorticity advecting downstream is responsible for this process.The exploration of the optimal precursor will conduce to improve the prediction of the transition processes from LM path to straight path,and its spatial structure can be used to guide Kuroshio targeted observation studies.

Impacts of Typhoons on the Kuroshio Large Meander:Observation Evidences

The formation of the Kuroshio large meander in summer 2004 was investigated by using the cruise data,Argo profiles data,and satellite remote sensing data.The authors validated the point that cyclonic eddies contrib-uted to the large meander.Besides,.the impacts of ty-phoons on Kuroshio meanders were also studied.From 29 July to 4 August,the typhoons stirred the ocean and up-welled the deep water,which enhanced the existed cyc-lonic eddy,and immediately made a drastic meander of the Kuroshio.Moreover,the unexpected typhoons in June 2004 also contributed to the initial meander at the Tokara Strait.The result suggests an alternative meander mecha-nism of the Kuroshio path via the typhoon-eddy-Kuroshio interactions.It is argued that typhoons accompanied with cyclonic eddies,might play crucial roles in meanders of the Kuroshio.This will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the western boundary flows,like the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream,and will be useful in eddy-resolution models.

Impact of nonlinear processes on formation of the Kuroshio large meander path in a barotropic inflow-outflow model

Based on a barotropic inflow-outflow model,we examine the formation of the Kuroshio large meander(LM) using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method.Both linear and nonlinear evolutions of such perturbations obtained by this method are investigated.The results show that the nonlinear evolution can result in the Kuroshio transition from a straight to LM path,whereas the linear evolution cannot.This implies that nonlinearity plays an important role in the formation of the Kuroshio LM path.The nonlinearity exists as advection in the evolution equations of the perturbation derived from the barotropic inflow-outflow model,namely the nonlinear advection of the perturbation by the perturbation(NAPP).By examining the role of this nonlinearity,we find that the NAPP tends to move the cyclonic eddy induced by the CNOP-type perturbation westward.Together with the beta effect,this offsets part of the eastward advection caused by the interaction between the perturbation and the background flow.Hence,the eastward movement of the cyclonic eddy is significantly weakened,effectively causing the eddy to develop.The sufficient evolution of this cyclonic eddy leads to the formation of the Kuroshio LM.

Comparison of the seven large meanders of the Kuroshio

In this paper, a comparison among the seven large meanders of the Kuroshio is made in order to probe into their similarity and differences. The major results are described as follows.1. Although the three phases for the seven large meanders such as their formations, maturity, as well as decline are very similar to one another, each meander has its own trivial difference in detail.2.The paths of the first six large meanders in the mature phase may be classified into ten types: U1, V1, U2, V2, U1', V1', U2', V2',φ and W.3.The seven large meanders may be grouped into two patterns, i. e. , pattern Ⅰ and pattern Ⅱ. Pattern Ⅰ includes the first and the fourth large meanders, and pattern Ⅱ includes the rest of the above meanders.4. Four standards for identifying the large meanders of the Kuroshio are put forward.

黑潮主轴弯曲对西北太平洋柔鱼资源补充量影响的动力学分析

为研究黑潮主轴弯曲产生的物理环境变动对柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartarmii)资源补充量的影响,采用物理模型(FVCOM-Global)耦合个体模型(IBM)的方法模拟西北太平洋柔鱼冬春生群早期生活史阶段(70 d)的输运分布和资源补充量,利用3月份黑潮主轴线140°E重心最南点位于32°N以南来判断大、小弯曲的路径与柔鱼资源补充量的相关性。结果表明:2007—2016年西北太平洋柔鱼的资源补充量有年际波动,该波动与3月份黑潮主轴弯曲有明显相关性(R^(2)=0.71),即黑潮主轴呈小弯曲年份时,柔鱼仔幼鱼被向北或东北即25°N以北、145°E以东的海域输运,在该海域中分布的柔鱼仔幼鱼数量占比越高,相对补充量就越高,并呈现较好的正相关性(R^(2)=0.89),其过程中产生的黑潮暖流流量在25°N以北海域体现明显,在流速为0.2~0.6 m/s、平均水温为20.2℃且等温线偏北的情况下,可导致该海域柔鱼仔幼鱼群的分布更加密集;在垂向分布上,不同年份垂向分布与补充量存在一定的正相关性(R^(2)=0.65)。研究表明,3月份黑潮主轴弯曲是影响柔鱼资源补充量的关键因素之一,这为预测当年柔鱼资源补充量的丰歉提供了科学依据。

2013-2020年太平洋快速增暖现象的辨识与时空特征研究

利用基于Argo的多套次表层温盐观测数据,本文分析了2004-2020年太平洋0~1500 m海洋热含量的变化趋势。研究发现,太平洋海洋热含量在2013年出现长期趋势的转变。2013-2020年太平洋海洋热含量相对于2004-2012年快速增加,前者线性趋势达到约0.50×10^(22)J/a,显著高于后者。近期太平洋出现了快速增暖现象。2013-2020年间,太平洋海洋热含量线性增加趋势最大出现在北太平洋西部,其次是热带太平洋和北太平洋东部,而整个南太平洋海洋热含量呈略微减少趋势。在北太平洋西部,海洋热含量快速增加集中在黑潮延伸体海域,该增暖趋势很可能是由黑潮延伸体主轴北移引起的。值得一提的是,日本以南出现了局地海洋热含量减少趋势,该变冷趋势与黑潮大弯曲不断加深有关。在增暖趋势次之的热带太平洋,海洋热含量的快速增加很可能是由温跃层快速加深导致的。此外,太平洋快速增暖反映在海表高度快速升高之中。1 cm/a的海表高度线性趋势对应于0.11×10^(9)J/(m^(2)·a)的海洋热含量线性趋势。本研究揭示了全球变暖停滞结束以来太平洋快速增暖现象,加深了对近期太平洋热力状况的认识。

High-Resolution Modeling Study of the Kuroshio Path Variations South of Japan

A high-resolution ocean general circulation model （OGCM） is used to investigate the Kuroshio path variations south of Japan. The model reproduces many important features of the Kuroshio system including its interannual bimodal variability south of Japan. A decreasing trend of the spatial averaged relative vorticity is detected when the Kuroshio takes the non-large meander （NLM） path, and during the transition period from the NLM to the large meander （LM）, a sudden release of velocity shear corresponds well to the weakening of the Shikoku recirculation gyre （SRG）, which plays a key role in modulating the Kuroshio path variations. Analysis of eddy energetics indicates that baroclinic instability is mainly responsible for the formation of the LM. In addition, further analysis shows that the strength of the SRG could be largely influenced by the baroclinic Rossby wave adjustment process, forced by the wind stress curl anomalies in the North Pacific basin, based on the model investigation. It is suggested that the cyclonic disturbances might account for the weakening of the SRG, and act as a remote trigger for the baroclinic instability of the Kuroshio south of Japan.

黑潮大弯曲时期日本鲭幼体输运数值模拟研究

日本鲭是一种重要的经济鱼类,广泛分布于西北太平洋沿岸海域,其资源和补充很容易受到环境因素的影响,尤其是在鱼类的早期生活阶段,即卵和幼体阶段。本文建立了一个基于个体的模型(Individual-Based Model,IBM)用以研究典型大弯曲期间黑潮主流、周围环流以及中尺度涡对日本鲭早期生命活动的影响。数值模拟及研究结果表明:(1)在深度分布方面,大部分个体(鱼卵或仔稚鱼)位于75 m以浅水层中,只有少部分被垂直湍流带入更深的水域。(2)在产卵场和育幼场之间的连通性方面,3-5月来自主要产卵场的个体随黑潮主流进入黑潮延伸区的渔场;6月份,主要产卵场中的个体受到黑潮大弯曲东侧的小型冷涡的影响,该冷涡阻止了其进入黑潮延伸区的渔场,并留在纪伊半岛和伊豆群岛的沿海水域。在昼夜垂直迁移(Diel Vertical Migration,DVM)这一输运方式的影响下,停留在四国岛和纪伊半岛附近的个体数量增加,处于DVM输运方式下的个体受冷涡的影响更大,增加了在海洋表面漂流的时间,无法跟随黑潮主流输送到更远的育幼场。(3)在输送距离方面,90%以内的个体进行短距离到中距离输运,在DVM输运方式下,长距离输运的个体明显较少。本文通过数值模拟获得了鱼类早期阶段资源分布的时空位置,可为保护鱼卵和鱼类幼体提供理论指导,以便能够更加有效地研究其资源潜力。

高度计资料监测日本以南黑潮主轴特性的变化

应用1993年至2001年TOPEX/Poseidon(以下简写为 T/P)卫星高度计3条下行轨道的沿轨资料,计算分析了日本以南黑潮主轴的摆动特性,发现在1993年和2000—2001年010轨道上有2次空间尺度较大、持续时间较长的弯曲。黑潮处于平直路径时流速比较大;呈稳定弯曲状态时流速与多年平均值相差不大;而黑潮在两种稳态之间转换时,伴随着流速负距平的出现。

黑潮延伸体海域海平面年际变化及其与海流的关系

利用黑潮延伸体海域海平面异常(SLA)数据和SODA海流资料,分析海平面和海流的年际变化特征,以及两者之间的关系。分析发现黑潮延伸体SLA的第二模态是黑潮大弯曲模态,存在29个月的准两年显著振荡。该海域海平面具有显著的年际变化,且与ENSO和PDO密切相关,2002-2004年的黑潮大弯曲期间,海平面与Nino3指数的相关系数为0.74。海平面年际变化和海流关系密切,黑潮延伸体主轴两侧海平面具有显著的季节和年际变化,急流呈大弯曲路径(1993-1996、2002-2004)时,流轴稳定流速大,流轴影响深,急流主轴南侧海平面较高,达到年际变化的最大值,主轴两侧海面高度梯度大。非弯曲期间,急流主轴南压,海流强度减弱,此期间海平面低,主轴两侧海面高度梯度较小。黑潮延伸体上游区海平面变化受黑潮大弯曲影响更为显著。上下游区的海平面和比容海平面的年际变化较为相似,黑潮延伸体海域海流和比容效应共同调控该区域海平面变化。

北太平洋SST的时空分布特征及其与黑潮大弯曲和El—Nino的关系

用EOF分析方法对北太平洋及赤道太平洋地区1949～1979年31年海表面温度距平场进行分解,得到几个主要距平海温模态(EOF1～3),分析了EOF1～3的时空分布特征。得到海温距平场的EOF1和EOF2～3模态分别对E1—Nino事件和黑潮大弯曲有很显著的相关性,指出SST第三模态场对黑潮大弯曲的影响具有很好的持续性,持续时间为1～2年。最后讨论了相互的影响过程,为黑潮大弯曲和E1—Nino事件的预报的可能性提供了依据。

北太平洋风应力场变异规律及其与黑潮大弯曲和El—Nino的联系

利用COADS资料,计算北太平洋(包括赤道海区)1949—1979年海表面风应力,对其距平场进行矢量场的EOF分解,得到几个主要的距平风应力模态(EOF1—3)。分析了各自的时空分布特征,分析发现,风应力距平场的EOF1和EOF2模态分别对黑潮大弯曲和E1—Nino事件有重要影响,并讨论了其影响过程,为黑潮大弯曲预报的可能性提供了依据。

海平面变化对黑潮变异的响应

本文对黑潮影响海区海平面变化进行了分析.发现海平面变化与黑潮变异之间存在着密切关系.每当黑潮大弯曲发生时.海平面上升出现高值。另外还对海平面变化原因做了讨论。

黑潮大弯曲的灰色分析和预测

利用50多年黑潮大弯曲统计资料,用灰色系统理论对黑潮大弯曲持续时间与冷水团范围、中心温度及大弯曲10种不同类型路径的关系进行了分析和讨论。文中建立了黑潮大弯曲出现时间的GM(1,1)预测模型:以及黑潮大弯曲持续时间的GM(1.1)包络预测模型:并通过上述模型对黑潮第7次、第8次大弯曲进行了验证和预测。

Impacts of oceanographic factors on interannual variability of the winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid abundance in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

The neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii is an economically important species in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The life cycle of O. bartramii is highly susceptible to climatic and oceanic factors. In this study, we have examined the impacts of climate variability and local biophysical environments on the interannual variability of the abundance of the western winter-spring cohort of O. bartramii over the period of 1995–2011. The results showed that the squid had experienced alternant positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO） over the past 17 years during which five El Ni？o and eight La Ni？a events occurred. The catch per unit effort（CPUE） was positively correlated with the PDO index（PDOI） at a one-year time lag. An abnormally warm temperature during the La Ni？a years over the positive PDO phase provided favorable oceanographic conditions for the habitats of O.bartramii, whereas a lower temperature on the fishing ground during the El Ni？o years over the negative PDO phase generally corresponded to a low CPUE. The same correlation was also found between CPUE and Chl a concentration anomaly. A possible explanation was proposed that the CPUE was likely related to the climateinduced variability of the large-scale circulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean： high squid abundance often occurred in a year with a significant northward meander of the Kuroshio Current. The Kuroshio Current advected the warmer and food-rich waters into the fishing ground, and multiple meso-scale eddies arising from current instability enhanced the food retention on the fishing ground, all of which were favorable for the life stage development of the western squid stocks. Our results help better understand the potential process that the climatic and oceanographic factors affect the abundance of the winter-spring cohort of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.