Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
Accurate ultra-short-term prediction of the Earth rotation parameters(ERP)holds paramount impor-tance for real-time applications,particularly in reference frame conversion.Among them,diurnal rota-tion(UT1-UTC)which ca...Accurate ultra-short-term prediction of the Earth rotation parameters(ERP)holds paramount impor-tance for real-time applications,particularly in reference frame conversion.Among them,diurnal rota-tion(UT1-UTC)which cannot be directly estimated through Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)techniques,significantly affects the rapid and ultra-rapid orbit determination of GNsS satellites.Pres-ently,the traditional LS(least squares)+AR(autoregressive)and LS+MAR(multivariate autoregressive)hybrid methods stand as primary approaches for UT1-UTC ultra-short-term predictions(1-10 days).The LS+MAR hybrid method relies on the UT1-UTC and LOD(length of day)series.However,the correlation between LOD and first-order-difference UT1-UTC is stronger than that between LOD and UT1-UTC.In light of this,and with the aid of the first-order-difference UT1-UTC,we propose an enhanced LS+MAR hybrid method to UT1-UTC ultra-short-term prediction.By using the UT1-UTC and LOD data series of the IERS(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service)EOP 14 C04 product,we conducted a thorough analysis and evaluation of the improved method's prediction performance compared to the traditional LS+AR and LS+MAR hybrid methods.According to the numerical results over more than 210 days,they demonstrate that,when considering the correlation information between the LoD and the first-order-difference UT1-UTC,the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of the improved LS+MAR hybrid method range from 21 to 934μs in 1-10 days predictions.In comparison to the traditional LS+AR hybrid method,the MAEs show a reduction of 7-53μs in 1-10 days predictions,with corresponding improvement percentages ranging from 1 to 28%.Similarly,when compared to the traditional LS+MAR hybrid method,the MAEs have a reduction of 5-42μs in 1-10 days predictions,with corresponding improvement percentages ranging from 4-20%.Additionally,when aided by GNSS-derived LOD data series,the MAEs of improved LS+MAR hybrid method experience further reduction.展开更多
The light curve analyses and orbital period variations for two contact binary stars,LS Del and V997 Cyg,are presented in this work which was conducted in the frame of the Binary Systems of South and North project Grou...The light curve analyses and orbital period variations for two contact binary stars,LS Del and V997 Cyg,are presented in this work which was conducted in the frame of the Binary Systems of South and North project Ground-based photometric observations were performed at two observatories in France.We used the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite(TESS)data for extracting times of minima and light curve analysis of the targe systems.The O-C diagram for both systems displays a parabolic trend.LS Del and V997 Cyg’s orbital periods are increasing at rates of dP/dt=7.20×10^(-08)days yr^(-1)and dP/dt=2.54×10^(-08)days yr^(-1),respectively Therefore,it can be concluded that mass is being transferred from the less massive star to the more massive component with a rate of dM/dt=-1.96×10^(-7)M_(⊙)yr^(-1)for the LS Del system,and dM/dt=-3.83×10^(-7)M_(⊙)yr-1for V997 Cyg.The parameters of a third possible object in the system are also considered.The PHysics Of Eclipsing BinariEs Python code was used to analyze the light curves.The light curve solutions needed a cold starspot due to the asymmetry in the LS Del system’s light curve maxima.The mass ratio fill-out factor,and star temperature all indicate that both systems are contact binary types in this investigation.Two methods were applied to estimate the absolute parameters of the systems:one method relied on the parallax of Gaia DR3,and the other used a P-M relationship.The positions of the systems are also depicted on the M-L,M-R q-L_(ratio),and logM_(tot)-logJ_(0)diagrams.We recommend that further observations and investigations be done on the existence of a fourth body in this system.展开更多
针对现有电力系统短期负荷预测精度低、数据处理量大、易受输入变量的影响等问题,提出了一种将离散Fréchet距离与LS-SVM相结合的短期负荷预测方法。分析总结了East-Slovakia Power Distribution Company提供的历年负荷数据,结合该...针对现有电力系统短期负荷预测精度低、数据处理量大、易受输入变量的影响等问题,提出了一种将离散Fréchet距离与LS-SVM相结合的短期负荷预测方法。分析总结了East-Slovakia Power Distribution Company提供的历年负荷数据,结合该地区的用电规律,通过引入离散Fréchet距离,建立离散曲线相似性的数学模型,选取出与基准曲线形状相似的相似日,利用相似日负荷数据对LS-SVM预测模型进行训练。经过仿真验证,并与标准LS-SVM模型得到的结果对比,所提预测方法明显提高了预测精度。展开更多
利用最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machines,LS-SVM),设计了一个电液位置伺服闭环控制系统的多故障诊断系统。利用系统的可测参量,建立了基于LS-SVM的电液位置伺服系统的全局故障检测模型和局部故障检测模型。在仿...利用最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machines,LS-SVM),设计了一个电液位置伺服闭环控制系统的多故障诊断系统。利用系统的可测参量,建立了基于LS-SVM的电液位置伺服系统的全局故障检测模型和局部故障检测模型。在仿真过程中发现,此方法的诊断准确度高,适用于闭环系统的单故障及多故障的检测及定位,仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性。展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
基金supported by China Natural Science Fund,China(No.42004016)the science and technology innovation Program of Hunan Province,China(No.2023RC3217)+1 种基金Research Foundation of the Department of Natural Resources of Hunan Province(Grant No:20240105CH)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329).
文摘Accurate ultra-short-term prediction of the Earth rotation parameters(ERP)holds paramount impor-tance for real-time applications,particularly in reference frame conversion.Among them,diurnal rota-tion(UT1-UTC)which cannot be directly estimated through Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)techniques,significantly affects the rapid and ultra-rapid orbit determination of GNsS satellites.Pres-ently,the traditional LS(least squares)+AR(autoregressive)and LS+MAR(multivariate autoregressive)hybrid methods stand as primary approaches for UT1-UTC ultra-short-term predictions(1-10 days).The LS+MAR hybrid method relies on the UT1-UTC and LOD(length of day)series.However,the correlation between LOD and first-order-difference UT1-UTC is stronger than that between LOD and UT1-UTC.In light of this,and with the aid of the first-order-difference UT1-UTC,we propose an enhanced LS+MAR hybrid method to UT1-UTC ultra-short-term prediction.By using the UT1-UTC and LOD data series of the IERS(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service)EOP 14 C04 product,we conducted a thorough analysis and evaluation of the improved method's prediction performance compared to the traditional LS+AR and LS+MAR hybrid methods.According to the numerical results over more than 210 days,they demonstrate that,when considering the correlation information between the LoD and the first-order-difference UT1-UTC,the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of the improved LS+MAR hybrid method range from 21 to 934μs in 1-10 days predictions.In comparison to the traditional LS+AR hybrid method,the MAEs show a reduction of 7-53μs in 1-10 days predictions,with corresponding improvement percentages ranging from 1 to 28%.Similarly,when compared to the traditional LS+MAR hybrid method,the MAEs have a reduction of 5-42μs in 1-10 days predictions,with corresponding improvement percentages ranging from 4-20%.Additionally,when aided by GNSS-derived LOD data series,the MAEs of improved LS+MAR hybrid method experience further reduction.
基金project was supported by the Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Erciyes University(project number FBA-2022-11737)the TESS mission is provided by the NASA Explorer Program。
文摘The light curve analyses and orbital period variations for two contact binary stars,LS Del and V997 Cyg,are presented in this work which was conducted in the frame of the Binary Systems of South and North project Ground-based photometric observations were performed at two observatories in France.We used the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite(TESS)data for extracting times of minima and light curve analysis of the targe systems.The O-C diagram for both systems displays a parabolic trend.LS Del and V997 Cyg’s orbital periods are increasing at rates of dP/dt=7.20×10^(-08)days yr^(-1)and dP/dt=2.54×10^(-08)days yr^(-1),respectively Therefore,it can be concluded that mass is being transferred from the less massive star to the more massive component with a rate of dM/dt=-1.96×10^(-7)M_(⊙)yr^(-1)for the LS Del system,and dM/dt=-3.83×10^(-7)M_(⊙)yr-1for V997 Cyg.The parameters of a third possible object in the system are also considered.The PHysics Of Eclipsing BinariEs Python code was used to analyze the light curves.The light curve solutions needed a cold starspot due to the asymmetry in the LS Del system’s light curve maxima.The mass ratio fill-out factor,and star temperature all indicate that both systems are contact binary types in this investigation.Two methods were applied to estimate the absolute parameters of the systems:one method relied on the parallax of Gaia DR3,and the other used a P-M relationship.The positions of the systems are also depicted on the M-L,M-R q-L_(ratio),and logM_(tot)-logJ_(0)diagrams.We recommend that further observations and investigations be done on the existence of a fourth body in this system.
文摘针对现有电力系统短期负荷预测精度低、数据处理量大、易受输入变量的影响等问题,提出了一种将离散Fréchet距离与LS-SVM相结合的短期负荷预测方法。分析总结了East-Slovakia Power Distribution Company提供的历年负荷数据,结合该地区的用电规律,通过引入离散Fréchet距离,建立离散曲线相似性的数学模型,选取出与基准曲线形状相似的相似日,利用相似日负荷数据对LS-SVM预测模型进行训练。经过仿真验证,并与标准LS-SVM模型得到的结果对比,所提预测方法明显提高了预测精度。
文摘利用最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machines,LS-SVM),设计了一个电液位置伺服闭环控制系统的多故障诊断系统。利用系统的可测参量,建立了基于LS-SVM的电液位置伺服系统的全局故障检测模型和局部故障检测模型。在仿真过程中发现,此方法的诊断准确度高,适用于闭环系统的单故障及多故障的检测及定位,仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性。
