The spatial temPOral evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (Y) before strong earthquakes is studied in this paper. The results show that the regions of high value of Y migrate and converge to the...The spatial temPOral evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (Y) before strong earthquakes is studied in this paper. The results show that the regions of high value of Y migrate and converge to the impending earthquake epicenter from different directions before the occurrence of the event. Basing on this discovery, it is proposed that the method can be used to predict the three elements of an earthquake. It was applied to predict that an earthquake would occur in the western part of Yunnan Province, southwestern China. The three elements (time, space and magnitude) of the Menglian earthquake with Ms7.3 which occurred on July 12, 1995 in Yunnan Province tallied with our prediction.展开更多
Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is a new promising approach to earthquake prediction. In the previous years, a series of successful medium-term predictions have been made for strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainla...Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is a new promising approach to earthquake prediction. In the previous years, a series of successful medium-term predictions have been made for strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using this method. In order to investigate whether the LURR method applies to different tectonic regimes, i.e., whether it is universal, the San Andreas Fault and its vicinities are chosen as the study region in this paper. The spatial variation of LURR in the western United States (30°～50°N, 100°～130°W) is studied in detail and the earthquake tendency in this region is discussed based on historic earthquake cases.展开更多
The temporal variation of LURR(y)for Kanto,Wakayama,and Hugo regions in Japan has been calculated and analysed.The LURR(y)values are significantly higher than 1 before the occurrence of all earthquakes with magnitude ...The temporal variation of LURR(y)for Kanto,Wakayama,and Hugo regions in Japan has been calculated and analysed.The LURR(y)values are significantly higher than 1 before the occurrence of all earthquakes with magnitude M≥6.0 in the Kanto region during the last two decades and the Kobe earthquake(1995-01-17).These results suggest that LURR theory is available for Japan.Recently they-value for Wakayama region has been near 1,while the y-value is remarkably larger than 1 for nearly two years for Kanto.According to these results,it is predicted that a strong earthquake with magnitude of about 6.0 could occur in 1 year or a little longer for in Kanto region or its adjacent regions,but there is little possibility for the Wakayama region.展开更多
The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high ...The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high magnitudes in the sequence, the ratio showed anomalies of high values. That is to say, the LURR theory can be applied to the short_term earthquake prediction in some cases, especially in the early period after a strong earthquake, such as the forecasts for some strong earthquakes in the Jiashi sequence.展开更多
文摘The spatial temPOral evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (Y) before strong earthquakes is studied in this paper. The results show that the regions of high value of Y migrate and converge to the impending earthquake epicenter from different directions before the occurrence of the event. Basing on this discovery, it is proposed that the method can be used to predict the three elements of an earthquake. It was applied to predict that an earthquake would occur in the western part of Yunnan Province, southwestern China. The three elements (time, space and magnitude) of the Menglian earthquake with Ms7.3 which occurred on July 12, 1995 in Yunnan Province tallied with our prediction.
文摘Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is a new promising approach to earthquake prediction. In the previous years, a series of successful medium-term predictions have been made for strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using this method. In order to investigate whether the LURR method applies to different tectonic regimes, i.e., whether it is universal, the San Andreas Fault and its vicinities are chosen as the study region in this paper. The spatial variation of LURR in the western United States (30°～50°N, 100°～130°W) is studied in detail and the earthquake tendency in this region is discussed based on historic earthquake cases.
基金This project was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation, ChinaIt is supported by the LNM, Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘The temporal variation of LURR(y)for Kanto,Wakayama,and Hugo regions in Japan has been calculated and analysed.The LURR(y)values are significantly higher than 1 before the occurrence of all earthquakes with magnitude M≥6.0 in the Kanto region during the last two decades and the Kobe earthquake(1995-01-17).These results suggest that LURR theory is available for Japan.Recently they-value for Wakayama region has been near 1,while the y-value is remarkably larger than 1 for nearly two years for Kanto.According to these results,it is predicted that a strong earthquake with magnitude of about 6.0 could occur in 1 year or a little longer for in Kanto region or its adjacent regions,but there is little possibility for the Wakayama region.
文摘The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high magnitudes in the sequence, the ratio showed anomalies of high values. That is to say, the LURR theory can be applied to the short_term earthquake prediction in some cases, especially in the early period after a strong earthquake, such as the forecasts for some strong earthquakes in the Jiashi sequence.
