As the survey conducted by the MHRSS shows, after the Spring Festival, companies plan to recruit more workers than last year, and the percentage of companies that foresee recruitment difficulties are increasing.
Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which co...Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.展开更多
The large quantity of cheap labor resources has long been regarded as one of the important factors that make it possible for China's economy to maintain rapid growth. However, Cai Fang, Director of the Institute o...The large quantity of cheap labor resources has long been regarded as one of the important factors that make it possible for China's economy to maintain rapid growth. However, Cai Fang, Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warned at a lecture in early May that China's surplus rural labor force is not as large as thought and that China will soon experience the transition from labor surplus to labor shortage. He predicted that the turning point would occur probably in 2009. In response, Hou Dongmin, Director of the Institute of Population, Resources and Environment of Renmin University of China, and Deng Yuwen, researcher at the China Society of Economic Reform, analyze the expected impacts of transition on China's future growth mode (in sequence).展开更多
The ＂migrant worker shortage＂ which occurred several）pears ago and the recent ＂labor shortage＂ were both caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of migrant workers. It is a periodical outcome of spon...The ＂migrant worker shortage＂ which occurred several）pears ago and the recent ＂labor shortage＂ were both caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of migrant workers. It is a periodical outcome of spontaneous adjustment by the migrant labor market. As rural welfare was greatly enhanced in 2009, migrant workers＇ opportunity cost of working outside their hometowns was raised. The connotation of migrant workers＇ ＂market price＂ is changing. The new generation of migrant workers, namely, those born after 1980, are becoming the mainstay of enterprises＇ employment. Being better educated, they have different lifestyles than previous generations. ＂Leisure and entertainment＂ have become part of their opportunity cost and reduced their labor supply. ＂Labor shortage＂ is an endogenous force that helps transform China＇s growth patter, upgrade the industrial structure and promote urbanization. The seasonal ＂return of migrant workers＂ and the ＂labor shortage＂ which appears around China＇s Spring Festival each year have grown into a unique b,t effective collective bargaining mechanism that helps increase migrant workers＇ wages. Facing labor shortages, governments should regulate the labor market pricing and orientate labor-intensive enterprises towards transition, continue to enhance the social security system for migrant workers and those in rural areas, and make an accurate forecast of the population trend and adjust population policies.展开更多
As a city with the most aging population in China, a well-established elderly care system is of great importance. Based on the modeling mechanism of GM （ 1.1 ） model, this paper establishes a demand forecast model o...As a city with the most aging population in China, a well-established elderly care system is of great importance. Based on the modeling mechanism of GM （ 1.1 ） model, this paper establishes a demand forecast model of elderly care labor force in Shanghai and applies gray prediction GM （1.1） model, taking the data of elderly care services in Shanghai from 2009 to 2015 as the basis, solving the model to get the forecast value of the gearing demand for geriatric care workers, and comparing the actual value with the predicted value. The test results show that the model predictive value Better, higher accuracy, less error rate. Using this model, we can get the forecast value of the elderly care labor force in Shanghai from 2009 to 2015, which provides the basis for the Shanghai elderly care labor force development plan.展开更多
文摘As the survey conducted by the MHRSS shows, after the Spring Festival, companies plan to recruit more workers than last year, and the percentage of companies that foresee recruitment difficulties are increasing.
文摘Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.
文摘The large quantity of cheap labor resources has long been regarded as one of the important factors that make it possible for China's economy to maintain rapid growth. However, Cai Fang, Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warned at a lecture in early May that China's surplus rural labor force is not as large as thought and that China will soon experience the transition from labor surplus to labor shortage. He predicted that the turning point would occur probably in 2009. In response, Hou Dongmin, Director of the Institute of Population, Resources and Environment of Renmin University of China, and Deng Yuwen, researcher at the China Society of Economic Reform, analyze the expected impacts of transition on China's future growth mode (in sequence).
文摘The ＂migrant worker shortage＂ which occurred several）pears ago and the recent ＂labor shortage＂ were both caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of migrant workers. It is a periodical outcome of spontaneous adjustment by the migrant labor market. As rural welfare was greatly enhanced in 2009, migrant workers＇ opportunity cost of working outside their hometowns was raised. The connotation of migrant workers＇ ＂market price＂ is changing. The new generation of migrant workers, namely, those born after 1980, are becoming the mainstay of enterprises＇ employment. Being better educated, they have different lifestyles than previous generations. ＂Leisure and entertainment＂ have become part of their opportunity cost and reduced their labor supply. ＂Labor shortage＂ is an endogenous force that helps transform China＇s growth patter, upgrade the industrial structure and promote urbanization. The seasonal ＂return of migrant workers＂ and the ＂labor shortage＂ which appears around China＇s Spring Festival each year have grown into a unique b,t effective collective bargaining mechanism that helps increase migrant workers＇ wages. Facing labor shortages, governments should regulate the labor market pricing and orientate labor-intensive enterprises towards transition, continue to enhance the social security system for migrant workers and those in rural areas, and make an accurate forecast of the population trend and adjust population policies.
文摘As a city with the most aging population in China, a well-established elderly care system is of great importance. Based on the modeling mechanism of GM （ 1.1 ） model, this paper establishes a demand forecast model of elderly care labor force in Shanghai and applies gray prediction GM （1.1） model, taking the data of elderly care services in Shanghai from 2009 to 2015 as the basis, solving the model to get the forecast value of the gearing demand for geriatric care workers, and comparing the actual value with the predicted value. The test results show that the model predictive value Better, higher accuracy, less error rate. Using this model, we can get the forecast value of the elderly care labor force in Shanghai from 2009 to 2015, which provides the basis for the Shanghai elderly care labor force development plan.
