Characterization of Nutrients,Heavy Metals,Petroleum and Their Impact on Phytoplankton in Laizhou Bay:Implications for Environmental Management and Monitoring

The Laizhou Bay(LB)represents a substantial ecological area that is vulnerable to human activities and confronts diverse environmental challenges.This study provides a comprehensive characterization of nutrients,petroleum,heavy metals,and phytoplankton community structure across seven distinct areas in LB.The results indicate relatively high concentrations of NO_(2)-N,SiO_(4)-Si,and NO_(3)-N in the Southwest Laizhou Bay(SWLB)and Huanghe River Estuary(HRE).In contrast,the East Laizhou bay(ELB)and the North of Huanghe River Estuary(NHRE)exhibit the highest concentrations of heavy metals(As,Cr and Hg).The areas with high phytoplankton density and community diversity are mainly located in the SWLB.After adjusting for basic environmental factors,phytoplankton density and Margalef richness index D are significantly associated with nutrients(NO_(3)-N,NO_(2)-N,NH_(4)-N,SiO_(4)-Si),and heavy metal(Cr)concentrations.We highlight that,in addition to Xiaoqinghe River,nutrients brought by the Mihe River in the SWLB and heavy metal(Cr)pollution in the ELB resulting from industrial and mining activities along the coast significantly influence phytoplankton growth and community structure.Therefore,it is recommended that more monitoring and management efforts be focused on these regions in the future.

Precise Emission Reduction of Total Nitrogen for Jurisdictions in Laizhou Bay,China:A Simulation-Optimization Approach Linking Land-Sea Management

This study aims to provide a quantitative basis for the precision emission reduction of land-based total nitrogen(TN)pollutants in Laizhou Bay(LZB),China.The total maximum allocated load(TMAL)of TN pollutants within jurisdictions around LZB was calculated using the stepwise simulation-optimization model after the division of source units,simulation of the concentration response matrix,setting of the additional constraint conditions for stepwise source units,and calculation of TMAL.The load reduction allocation system for jurisdictions can be constructed on the basis of the TMAL and the load monitored or statistics.The index system for TN emission reduction included indices for two groups:a fixed index of marine emission reduction rate for jurisdictions,which was 11.93%on average;and threshold indices of pollution prevention rate at sources,the increment rate of pollution removal by municipal sewage treatment systems,and watershed retention of jurisdictions,which were 7.43%,1.58%,and 1.09%on average,respectively.Efficiency of pollutant reduction can be evaluated using a 3D hydrodynamic-water quality model.Simulation results showed that the precise reduction indicators achieved the seawater quality improvement target of LZB 5 years earlier than the equal proportion reduction indicators currently used in LZB Basin.

SPOT和Bayes递推估计融合的运载火箭样本量设计

针对运载火箭小子样条件,结合序贯验后加权检验(sequential posterior odd test,SPOT)和Bayes递推估计法,分别从假设检验和参数估计两方面,对传统试验样本量评估方法进行改进。在对运载火箭服从正态分布的性能指标进行评估时,引入复合等效系数来有效融合多源数据,弥补真实试验数据或现场数据的不足。综合考虑两类风险和置信度要求,制定合理的评估方案,有效减少所需试验样本数量,从而控制试验成本。通过算例分析发现,提出样本量评估方法结果真实可信,能够有效降低样本量需求,可较好用于小子样论文拓展条件下的运载火箭样本量试验设计。

基于Bayes推断的交流接触器剩余电寿命预测

针对交流接触器可靠性开展研究,首先分析交流接触器的电弧侵蚀机理,建立了计及电弧电压及电弧重燃影响的电弧侵蚀模型,根据该模型仿真得到的交流接触器性能退化特征参量变化过程与交流接触器的实际退化规律一致。分析不同工况下性能退化数据特征,提出了不同工况下先验信息的等效折算方法,解决了不同工况下的先验信息利用问题。建立了基于Bayes推断的交流接触器剩余电寿命预测模型,提高了剩余电寿命预测精度,实现了利用不同工况下性能退化数据对交流接触器进行剩余电寿命预测。在AC-4、AC-3两种工况下进行了交流接触器电寿命仿真分析及实验分析,相对误差均小于5.5%,验证了方法的准确性。

基于Bayes时空模型分析HIV/AIDS晚发现的时空分布特征及其影响因素

【目的】旨在分析兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现的时空聚集性特征及相关影响因素,明确兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现高风险地区和时间趋势,为兰州市因地制宜地制定HIV/AIDS防治策略措施提供参考依据。【方法】选择兰州市2011-2018年间新报告的成年HIV/AIDS病例作为研究对象,研究中所需的数据资料来自兰州市疾病预防控制中心和兰州市统计年鉴。采用Bayes时空模型分析HIV/AIDS晚发现相对风险(RR)的时空分布特征及其影响因素。【结果】2011-2018年间兰州市新报告的HIV/AIDS病例共计1984例,其中HIV/AIDS晚发现者有982例(49.5%),平均年龄为39.67岁,男性占90.9%。老年人和女性HIV/AIDS病例中晚发现的比例更高;城关区(51.1%)、安宁区(50.3%)和榆中县(51.9%)具有高于平均水平的HIV/AIDS晚发现比例;2011-2018年间兰州市总体的晚发现比例呈波动上升趋势。Bayes时空模型分析结果显示,兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现风险在2011-2015年间波动变化,而在2015年后迅速上升,其RR(95%CI)从1.01(0.84,1.23)上升到1.11(0.77,1.97);红古区和三个县的晚发现风险变化趋势与兰州市的总体变化趋势相似,而城关区和七里河区的晚发现风险呈下降趋势;晚发现相对风险大于1的区县包括:永登县(RR=1.07,95%CI:0.55,1.96)、西固区(RR=1.04,95%CI:0.67,1.49)、城关区(RR=2.41,95%CI:0.85,6.16)和七里河区(RR=2.03,95%CI:1.10,3.27)。冷热点分析结果显示城关区和七里河区为热点区。影响因素分析结果显示,随着人均GDP(RR=0.65,95%CI:0.35,0.90)和HIV/AIDS病例中的男性比例(RR=0.53,95%CI:0.19,0.92)的增高,HIV/AIDS晚发现的相对风险越低;而人口密度(RR=1.35,95%CI:1.01,1.81)越大,晚发现风险越高。【结论】兰州市的HIV/AIDS晚发现风险呈上升趋势,并且存在明显的地区差异特征;人均GDP、HIV/AIDS中男性比例和人口密度是HIV/AIDS晚发现的影响因素。因此,对于晚发现风险高和存在相关风险因素的区县,应重视并制定有针对性的HIV筛查和防治服务,降低HIV/AIDS晚发现比例和风险。

黄土抗剪强度参数均值与方差的Bayes估计及其应用

为解决黄土强度参数估计问题,从工程勘察项目中共收集统计了3384组Q1、Q2、Q3黄土强度参数黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ值的测试数据,不考虑二者的相关性,将参数均值和方差都作为随机变量,建立起黄土强度参数c、φ的正态-逆伽马先验分布。基于Bayes理论,利用共轭先验法推导了参数后验分布和后验概率密度函数的期望值求解公式,确定了估计的误差。以陕西泾阳黄土边坡为例,利用所建立的先验分布和边坡土层测试强度指标,求取参数的后验分布,进一步估计了边坡失效概率的概率分布和稳定系数均值的概率分布。结果表明:在95%的置信度下,按稳定系数评价,边坡均处于基本稳定状态,且稳定系数置信区间小;按失效概率评价,边坡接近稳定状态,但失效概率的置信区间较大,黄土强度参数的方差控制着边坡失效概率的置信区间,将方差作为随机变量,考虑方差变异性,能更科学地评估黄土工程的可靠度。

Ⅱ型双删失样本下逆Topp-Leone分布的Bayes估计

在Ⅱ型双删失样本下,研究了逆Topp-Leone分布参数的极大似然估计,证明了极大似然估计的存在性和唯一性;基于未知参数的先验分布为Gamma分布和Jeffrey分布,分别在三种不同损失函数下,得到逆Topp-Leone分布未知参数的Bayes估计。根据后验密度函数得到预测密度,进而得到未来观测值在三种损失函数下的预测估计值。为了比较在不同损失下Bayes估计的优劣,采用数值模拟方法计算了各种估计的均值及均方误差,结果表明在Linex损失下未知参数的Bayes估计量更接近真值,均方误差最小。

一类Lindley模型参数的经验Bayes检验收敛速度的改进

利用递归核估计和单调性,构造了Lindley模型参数的经验Bayes检验函数,并在适当的条件下,证明了收敛速度的阶可任意接近O(n^(-1)).

Taxonomic Distinctness of Macrofauna as an Ecological Indicator in Laizhou Bay and Adjacent Waters

In this paper, we assessed the ecological and biodiversity status in the Bohai Sea through a quantitative survey on mac-rofaunal community at 25 stations in Laizhou Bay and adjacent waters in the autumn of 2006.We tested the robustness and effectiveness of taxonomic distinctness as an ecological indictor by analyzing its correlation with species richness and natural environmental variables and by analyzing other ecological indicators (Shannon-Wiener H' and W statistics from Abundance Biomass Comparison curve).Results so obtained indicated that the benthic environment of the study waters in general is not under major impact of anthropogenic disturbance, but some stations in Laizhou Bay and along the coast of the Shandong Peninsula and even in the central Bohai Sea might be moderately disturbed and showed signs of ecological degradation.The taxonomic distinctness measures △+ and Λ+ were independent of sampling effort and natural environment factors and were compliant to other ecological indicators.Further application of the taxonomic distinctness indicator to assess marine biodiversity and ecosystem health on a larger regional scale with historical data seems promising.

Partitioning of grain-size components of estuarine sediments and implications for sediment transport in southwestern Laizhou Bay, China

Sediment transport in estuarine systems has been of increasing interest for scientists during the past few decades. However, the mechanisms for sediment redistribution remain unclear. We characterized in detail sediment transport in the Xiaoqing River estuary using the mathematical Weibull function to partition grain-size components of surface sediments in the southwestern Laizhou Bay, Northeast China. Four partitioned components: finer than 4,4.6-12.5, 23.4-63.3, and 67.1-132.6 μm were interpreted in terms of hydrodynamic conditions. During sediment transport, silt grains were suspended and moved seaward from three depositional centers, whereas fine-grained sands moved generally landward. Overall, sediments are transported clockwise in a generally NNE direction near shore and then turn eastward offshore. The mathematical partitioning method showed a great potential for future estuarine environmental studies.

Macrobenthic Community in the Xiaoqing River Estuary in Laizhou Bay,China

The macrobenthic community of the Xiaoqing River Estuary and the adjacent sea waters was investigated in May and November 2008,August 2009,and May and September 2010,respectively.A total of 95 species of macrobenthos were identified in the five cruises and most of them were polychaetes(46.39%),mollusks(28.86%) and crustaceans(20.62%).The Shannon-Wiener index of macrobenthos was lower than 2 in 67% sites.Along the stream channel,estuary and the coastal waters,the species of polychaetes reduced gradually,while the abundance increased at first and then decreased.The abundance was the biggest at regions with salinity of 5 20 in the estuary.The species and abundance of mollusks and crustaceans increased gradually.As for seasonal distribution,the species,abundance and biomass were higher in spring and lower in summer and autumn.Contemporaneously compared with Laizhou Bay and Yellow River Estuary,the species of macrobenthos appeared in the Xiaoqing River Estuary were much less,while the percentage of polychaetes was higher.Abundance and biomass were higher in Xiaoqing River estuary,then consequently followed by Laizhou Bay and Yellow River Estuary.The dominant species in Xiaoqing River Estuary was polychaete,and Layzhou Bay mollusk.The community structure characteristics of macrobenthos in the Xiaoqing River Estuary revealed a significant pollution status in this region.

Paleoenvironmental changes during the late Quaternary as inferred from foraminifera assemblages in the Laizhou Bay

Controlled by climate changes, there were three large-scale transgressions and regressions around the Bohai Sea during the late Quaternary, which were accepted by most geologists. However, a big controversy still exists about the time when the transgressions occurred separately. In order to find out the process of the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary, the foraminifera assemblages from a new borehole Lz908 in the southern coast of the Laizhou Bay were studied, and then the transgressive strata were indentified. Combined with accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon 14C（AMS14C） and optically stimulated luminescence（OSL） ages, the occurrence time of these transgressions were re-determined. The result showed that three major large-scale transgressions occurred separately at the beginning of marine isotopic stage 7（MIS7）, the last interglacial period（MIS5） and the Holocene. In addition, a small-scale transgression occurred in the mid-MIS6, and the corresponding transgressive stratum was deposited. The transgressive deposition of MIS3 was also discovered in this study. However, the characteristics of the foraminifera indicated the environment during this period was colder than that in the MIS5. By comparison with the global sea-level changes, the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary can be consistent with the global climate changes.

Variation of Yellow River Runoff and Its Influence on Salinity in Laizhou Bay

Salinity in estuaries has an important influence on sediment deposition,delta formation,and fishery economy.The change of runoff in Yellow River(YR),which is the largest river along the Bohai Sea,has an important effect on the salinity of the sea,particularly in Laizhou Bay.In this study,measured runoff data in Lijin hydrological station from 1950 to 2018 are adopted to examine the change of YR runoff into the sea.The study concludes that the runoff of YR is distributed unevenly throughout the year and the amount of runoff mainly concentrates during the flood season.Results show a decreasing trend at a significant level ofα=0.95,with a range of−6.17×10^9 m^3 yr−1.Three groups of runoff are set by using the Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model numerical model to analyze the change of salinity in Laizhou Bay.These modeled effects were compared with water level observations made by Bayuquan,Tanggu,and Penglai gauge stations and salinity surveys conducted by Longkou gauge station.Model results and observations of salinity distributions and coastal water level showed good agreement.We can conclude that the distribution of salinity in Laizhou Bay is high in the east and low in the west.Furthermore,it responded quickly to the change of the runoff from YR.Under conditions of high river discharge,the low-salinity zone increased in horizontal direction and reached the bottom in vertical direction.

Monthly Variation in Crustacean Assemblage(Decapod and Stomatopod) and Its Relationships with Environmental Variables in Laizhou Bay,China

In this study,we investigated the community structure of crustaceans(decapod and stomatopod) inhabiting the sandy mud bottoms of Laizhou Bay(northeastern China) monthly from May 2011 to April 2012.Investigation was stopped from December 2011 to February 2012 because of the extreme weather and sea ice.A total of 205,057 specimens belonging to 31 species(shrimp,15;crab,15;and stomatopod,1) were collected in 148 hauls.From 2011 to 2012,Oratosquilla oratoria was the dominant biomass species(47.80%),followed by Charybdis japonica(15.49%),Alpheus japonicas(12.61%),Portunus trituberculatus(6.46%),and Crangon spp.(4.19%).Crangon spp.was the most dominant species by individual(32.55%).O.oratoria was the most-frequently encountered species(81.76%),followed by Palaemon gravieri(70.95%),C.japonica(65.54%),A.japonicas(62.16%),and P.trituberculatus(54.73%).The biomass density increased from August to September 2011 and decreased from March 2012 to April 2012.The dynamics of the ecological indices evolve in a similar manner,with high values of diversity and evenness and rich species from May to June 2011 and low values from September to October 2011.O.oratoria,C.japonica,and P.trituberculatus differed by biomass data between groups I(samples obtained from September to October 2011) and II(samples in other months).These species contributed more than 70% to the similarity of the crustacean community structure.Furthermore,the subsets of environmental variables that best matched the crustacean-assemblage structure were as follows:water depth(WD) in summer(June to August);sea surface temperature(SST),dissolved oxygen(DO),and WD in autumn(September to November);and DO,salinity,and WD in spring(March to May).The calculated correlation coefficients and significance level were higher in the period of July to August 2011 than in other months.Comparing 2011 to 2012 with 1982 to 1983,the species composition remained stable.However,the dominant species changed significantly.High value and large species,such as F.chinensis,P.trituberculatus,and T.curvirostris,have been replaced by low value and small species(i.e.,Crangon spp.,P.gravieri,and C.japonica).

Distribution and pollution assessment of trace metals in seawater and sediment in Laizhou Bay

Selected trace metals （Pb, Cd, Cu, Hg） and arsenic in seawater and surface sediments of Laizhou Bay were determined, to evaluate their spatial distribution, pollution risk and potential ecological risk. Concentrations of the elements were 0.56-2.07, 0.14-0.38, 12.70-18.40, 0.014-0.094, and 1.13- 2.37 μg/L in the seawater and 8.94-32.2, 0.18-0.67, 4.51-30.5, 0.006-0.058, and 5.75-15.3 mg/kg in sediments for Pb, Cd, Cu, Hg and As, respectively. High concentrations of the trace metals and arsenic in seawater and surface sediments were generally observed near the fiver estuary. The pollution risk result of the elements showed that Cu was the prominent trace metal pollutant in seawater, followed by Hg, Pb, Cd and As. The metal complex pollution index in seawater was at a medium level. The most important trace metal pollutant in sediments was Cd, followed by As, Cu, Pb, and Hg. Our pollution assessment suggests that trace metal pollution in Laizhou Bay sediments was at a low level. The potential ecological risk was also low in surface sediment.

Modelling Nitrogen and Phosphorus Dynamics in a Mesocosm Pelagic Ecosystem in Laizhou Bay in China

A model of nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in mesocosm experiments was established on the basis of a summary and synthesis of the existing models. The established model comprised seven state variables(DIN,PO4-P,DON,DOP,phytoplankton,zooplankton and detritus) and five modules - phytoplankton,zooplankton,dissolved inorganic nutrients,dissolved organic nutrients and detritus. Comparison with the in situ experimental data in Laizhou Bay at the end of August 2002 showed that this model could properly simulate the variations of DIN,PO4-P,and phytoplankton biomass in a mesocosm pelagic ecosystem. It was found that not only the model structure but also the parameters adopted were fit for simulation. The sensitivity of the main state variables to the parameter change was assessed by sensitivity analysis. All these results are useful for studying the control mechanism of biogeochemical cycling of nutrients in Laizhou Bay and other Chinese coastal waters.

The Effects of Reclamation Activity and Yellow River Runoff on Coastline and Area of the Laizhou Bay,China

Study on morphological changes of a bay can help to identify the effects of anthropogenic activities on coastal environ-ment and guide the exploration of marine resources.In this paper,morphological data including coastline and water areas in five discrete years between 1968 and 2015 were selected and extracted from the remote sensing images and historical marine charts to study the morphological changes in Laizhou Bay(LZB),one of the bays in the southwest of the Bohai Sea.A systematic analysis on spatial variations of the coastline and the surface areas of different types of waters in LZB was conducted.The results showed that the surface area of LZB was decreased by 1253.2km^(2)in the last half century,which is 17.4%of the total in the 1970s.The areas of the natural wetland and the intertidal zone were decreased by 17.2%and 56.1%,respectively,and the average water depth varied from 9.05 m to 8.16m at low tide level from 1968 to 2015.The coastline and shape variations of the bay turned to be complex after the 1980s,and the shape index of LZB showed an increasing trend in more recent years.The centroid of the bay generally migrated to the northeast direction,i.e.,the direction of the center of the Bohai Sea,and the shrinking direction of the bay was consistent with the migration direction of the coastline.The reclamation area during 1968-2015 in LZB was 1201.7km^(2),and 94.1%was in the inter-tidal zone.The overall morphological change of the bay during the last half century was mainly controlled by the coastal reclamation activities,and the Yellow River runoff including the river course change and sediment load variation was also an important control-ling factor.

Species- and tissue-specific mercury bioaccumulation in five fish species from Laizhou Bay in the Bohai Sea of China

Mercury (Hg) concentrations in the tissues (muscle, stomach, liver, gills, skin, and gonads) of five fish species (mullet Liza haematocheilus, flathead fish Platycephalus indicus, sea bass Lateolabrax japonicus, mackerel Scomberomorus niphonius and silver pomfret Pampus argenteus) collected from Laizhou Bay in the Bohai Sea of China were investigated. The results indicate that Hg bioaccumulation in the five fish was tissue- specific, with the highest levels in the muscle and liver, followed by the stomach and gonads. The lowest levels were found in the gills and skin. Fish at higher trophic levels (flathead fish and sea bass) exhibited higher Hg concentrations than consumers at lower trophic levels. Mercury bioaccumulation tended to be positively correlated with fish length in mullet, silver pomfret, mackerel, and flathead fish, but was negatively correlated with fish length in sea bass. The Hg concentrations in the muscles of all fish species in Laizhou Bay were within the permissible limits of food safety set by national and international criteria. However, the suggesting maximum consumption of sea bass is 263g per week for human health.

Environmental evolution in the salt-water intrusion area south of Laizhou Bay since late Pleistocene

The south coastal plain of Laizhou Bay is one of the typical salt-water intrusion areas in China, the occurrence and development of which was closely related with the palaeoenvironment evolution. Systematic analyses of pollen, foraminifera and grain size composition based on ^14C and luminescence dating from two sediment cores were performed for the purpose of understanding the salt-water intrusion in the coastal plain of Laizhou Bay from the perspective of environmental evolution since late Pleistocene. It could be classified into seven evolution stages since 120 kaBP： 120-85 kaBP was a transition period from cold to warm; 85-76 kaBP was a period with warm and wet climate having swamp lakes developed in the lower reaches of the Weihe River, south coastal plain of Laizhou Bay; 76-50 kaBP was characterized by grassland vegetation and coarse sediments in terrestrial environment, which was the early stage of Dali Ice-Age; 50-24 kaBP was a period with alternate sea deposition in the south coastal plain of Laizhou Bay; 24-10 kaBP was the late stage of Dali Ice-Age with coldest period of Quaternary, the south coastal plain of Laizhou Bay was dry grassland and loess deposition environment; 10-4 kaBP was another warm and wet climate period, sea level was high and regressed at 4 kaBP; and has been the modern sedimentary environment since 4 kaBP. Among the three warm stages, including 85-76 kaBP, 50-24 kaBP and 10-4 kaBP, corresponded to late Yangkou, Guangrao and Kenli seawater transgression respectively. The duration of the latter one in south coastal plain of Laizhou Bay was longer than that in west coast of Bohai Sea and east coast of Laizhou Bay. The three periods of seawater transgression formed the foundation of salt-water intrusion in this area.

SEAWATER INTRUSION TYPES AND REGIONAL DIVISIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LAIZHOU BAY

The southern coast of Laizhou Bay, Bohai Sea, is one of the areas in China most seriously impacted by seawater intrusion. Based on the sources of intruding waterbodies, seawater intrusion can be divided into two types: intrusion of saline water derived from modern seawater, and intrusion of subsurface brine and saline water derived from paleo seawater in shallow Quaternary sediments. There are some distinct differences in their formation, mechanism and damage. The subsurface brine intrusion is a special type, which can cause very serious disaster. The coastal landform and the Quaternary hydrogeological environment are predominant factors in the classification of seawater intrusion types. Various coastal environments in different coastal sections result in three types of intrusion: seawater intrusion, saline groundwater intrusion, and mixed seawater and saline water intrusion, in the southern coast of Laizhou Bay, which can be divided into four areas: the seawater intrusion area in the northern Laizhou City coast, the mixed seawater and saline groundwater intrusion area in the Baisha River Jiaolai River mouth plain area, the mixed seawater and saline groundwater intrusion area in the Weihe River mouth plain area northern Changyi county coast, and the saline groundwater intrusion area in the northern Shouguang plains.