Groundwater status and associated issues in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin： International collaborations to achieve sustainable groundwater resources

Groundwater is an important and readily available source of fresh water in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin. With a rapid population growth and increasing human activities, an increasing number of countries in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin are experiencing depleted and degraded groundwater supplies. In transboundary river basins, such as the Mekong-Lancang River, prioritizing the use of the shared aquifer by one riparian government may affect the opportunities of other riparian governments and lead to potential water conflicts between neighboring countries. To promote the sharing of strategies and information for the sustainable and equitable use of water resources of the shared basin, international collaborative workshops on groundwater resources have been organized for all Mekong-Lancang River countries. These workshops provide an opportunity to communicate and discuss nationally sensitive issues on groundwater by the associated countries, with topics covering multiple aspects of groundwater, such as the groundwater status in the basin, quality issues, water use conflicts, hydrological information gaps, management policies and capacity building for successful water resource management. Consensus has been reached by all countries on the importance of catchment-based groundwater management and the need for close communication among the countries. Strategies for managing transboundary aquifer issues must foster international collaboration based on the regional network, influence national networks and enhance the capacity to building maps and monitoring systems based on associated databases. The sustainability of water resources cannot be achieved without the integrated involvement and contributions by multiple countries and various stakeholders. Therefore, collaborative workshops provide a great opportunity to further our understanding of the hydrologic processes of the Mekong River Basin, share the benefits of the aquifer and provide a strategy and vision for sustainable water resource management in the Mekong-Lancang River countries.

Distribution and Influencing Factors of Residential Areas in Yunnan Section of the Lancang River Basin

Based on high-resolution Google Earth images,settlements in Yunnan section of the Lancang River basin were extracted.We use the kernal density and the optimized hot spot analysis methods to display spatial pattern of the settlements.Random forest model is used to explore the natural environmental impact factors of residential areas distribution.The results show that settlements in Yunnan section of the Lancang River basin are mainly distributed in the middle reaches and the upper reaches along the river.The random forest model contains 11 environmental factors,and the top three factors in importance are the nearest distance to forest,altitude and the nearest distance to glacier/snow.The partial dependence plots show the response trend of settlements to environmental factors.This research results could provide guidance for rational use of land resources,making regional development and construction plans,and coordinating the relationship between humans and the environment.

Evaluating Suitability of Multiple Precipitation Products for the Lancang River Basin

Global reanalysis precipitation products could provide valuable meteorological information for flow forecasting in poorly gauged areas, helping to overcome a long-standing challenge in the field. But not all data sources are suitable for all regions or perform the same way in hydrological modeling, so it is essential to test the suitability of precipitation products before applying them. In this study, five widely used global high-resolution precipitation products—Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources(APHRODITE), National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(NCEP-CFSR), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data(CHIRPS), China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis developed by China Meteorological Administration(CMA) and Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project based on the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications(AgMERRA)—were evaluated using statistical methods and a hydrological approach for their suitability for the Lancang River Basin. The results indicated that APHRODITE, CMA, AgMERRA and CHIRPS were more accurate precipitation indicators than NCEP-CFSR in terms of the multiyear average and seasonal spatial distribution pattern, all of the CHIRPS, Ag MERRA and APHRODITE perform better than CMA and NCEP-CFSR at the small, medium and high precipitation intensities ranges in subbasin11 and sunbabsin46. All five products performed better in subbasin46(a low-altitude region) than in subbasin11(a high-altitude region) on the daily and monthly scales. In addition to NCEP-CFSR, the other four products all presented encouraging potential for streamflow simulation at daily(Yunjinghong) and monthly(Yunjinghong, Jiuzhou and Gajiu) scale. Hydrological simulations forced with APHRODITE were the best of the five for the Yunjinghong station in capturing daily and monthly measured streamflow. Except for NCEP-CFSR, all products were very good for hydrological simulations for the Gajiu and Jiuzhou stations.

Spatial Downscaling of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Using Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging over the Lancang River Basin, China

Satellite-based precipitation products have been widely used to estimate precipitation, especially over regions with sparse rain gauge networks. However, the low spatial resolution of these products has limited their application in localized regions and watersheds.This study investigated a spatial downscaling approach, Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging(GWRK), to downscale the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) 3 B43 Version 7 over the Lancang River Basin(LRB) for 2001–2015. Downscaling was performed based on the relationships between the TRMM precipitation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), the Land Surface Temperature(LST), and the Digital Elevation Model(DEM). Geographical ratio analysis(GRA) was used to calibrate the annual downscaled precipitation data, and the monthly fractions derived from the original TRMM data were used to disaggregate annual downscaled and calibrated precipitation to monthly precipitation at 1 km resolution. The final downscaled precipitation datasets were validated against station-based observed precipitation in 2001–2015. Results showed that: 1) The TRMM 3 B43 precipitation was highly accurate with slight overestimation at the basin scale(i.e., CC(correlation coefficient) = 0.91, Bias = 13.3%). Spatially, the accuracies of the upstream and downstream regions were higher than that of the midstream region. 2) The annual downscaled TRMM precipitation data at 1 km spatial resolution obtained by GWRK effectively captured the high spatial variability of precipitation over the LRB. 3) The annual downscaled TRMM precipitation with GRA calibration gave better accuracy compared with the original TRMM dataset. 4) The final downscaled and calibrated precipitation had significantly improved spatial resolution, and agreed well with data from the validated rain gauge stations, i.e., CC = 0.75, RMSE(root mean square error) = 182 mm, MAE(mean absolute error) = 142 mm, and Bias = 0.78%for annual precipitation and CC = 0.95, RMSE = 25 mm, MAE = 16 mm, and Bias = 0.67% for monthly precipitation.

An improved modeling of precipitation phase and snow in the Lancang River Basin in Southwest China

Precipitation phase(e.g., rainfall and snowfall) and snow(e.g., snowpack and snowmelt runoff) in high-mountain regions may largely affect runoff generation, which is critical to water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural irrigation, and ecosystems downstream. Accurately modeling precipitation phase and snow is therefore fundamental to developing a better understanding of hydrological processes for high-mountain regions and their lower reaches. The Lancang River(LR, or the Upper Mekong River)in China, among the most important transboundary rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau, features active dam construction and complex water resources allocation of various stakeholders in Southeast Asian countries under climate change. This study aims to improve precipitation phase and snow modeling for the LR basin with a hydrological model and multisource remotely sensed data. Results show that joint use of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) land surface temperature product with high spatial resolution(1 km×1 km) and an air temperature product can more precisely distinguish precipitation phase than air and wet-bulb temperature products in the LR basin. Snowfall and snowmelt were found to be controlled primarily by rainfall and snowfall temperature thresholds in snow modeling. The rainfall and snowfall temperature thresholds derived from the hydrological model through calibration with remotely sensed snowpack at basin scales were considerably lower than those derived from in situ observations. Rainfall and snowfall temperature thresholds derived from in situ observations could lead to the overestimation of snowmelt runoff due mostly to the lack of representation of point-based measurements at basin scales. This study serves as a basis for better modeling and predicting snow for the LR basin and potentially other similar basins globally.

The evaluation of TRMM tion Analysis （TMPA） in the Lancang River Basin Multisatellite Precipitadrought monitoring in

Drought is one of the most destructive disasters in the Lancang River Basin, which is an ungauged basin with strong heterogeneity on terrain and climate. Our validation suggested the version-6 monthly TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA; 3B43 V.6) product during the period 1998 to 2009 is an alternative precipitation data source with good accuracy. By using the standard precipitation index (SPI), at the grid point (0.25°×0.25°) and sub-basin spatial scales, this work assessed the effectiveness of TMPA in drought monitoring during the period 1998 to 2009 at the 1-month scale and 3-months scale; validated the monitoring accuracy of TMPA for two severe droughts happened in 2006 and 2009, respectively. Some conclusions are drawn as follows. (1) At the grid point spatial scale, in comparison with the monitoring results between rain gauges (SPI1g) and TMPA grid (SPI1s), both agreed well at the 1-month scale for most of the grid points and those grid points with the lowest critical success index (CSI) are distributed in the middle stream of the Lancang River Basin. (2) The same as SPI1s, the consistency between SPI3s and SPI3g is good for most of the grid points at the 3-months scale, those grid points with the lowest were concentrated in the middle stream and downstream of the Lancang River Basin. (3) At the 1-month scale and 3-months scale, CSI ranged from 50% to 76% for most of the grid points, which demonstrated high accuracy of TMPA in drought monitoring. (4) At the 3-months scale, based on TMPA basin-wide precipitation estimates, though we tended to overestimate (underestimate) the peaks of dry or wet events, SPI3s detected successfully the occurrence of them over the five sub-basins at the most time and captured the occurrence and development of the two severe droughts happened in 2006 and 2009. This analysis shows that TMPA has the potential for drought monitoring in data-sparse regions.

Hydrological Simulation Using TRMM and CHIRPS Precipitation Estimates in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.

FACILITATING REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH INTEGRATED MULTI-OBJECTIVE UTILIZATION, MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE LANCANG-MEKONG RIVER BASIN

The Lancnag Mekong River is the most important international river across China and Southeast Asia, If it is developed according to "Great Mekong Subregional Cooperation Plan" [9] prepared by ADB, the area directly affected will be up to over 2.32 million km 2, the population over 220 million, and the natural environment, and socio-economic conditions within a large area will be greatly changed. "Agreement on Cooperation for Sustainable Development of Mekong Basin" signed by the four riparian countries along the lower Mekong River on April 5, 1995 provides a new opportunity for sustainable development of the Basin. According to preliminary analysis, if the multipurpose utilization of the water resources is the target for carrying out integrated planning and management, and the efforts are made 1) to focus on energy exploitation on the Lancang River Mainstream and the tributaries of the lower Mekong River; 2) to build gated weirs at Tonle Sam; 3) to construct spillways at the Mekong Delta; 4) to facilitate flood dykes in big cities and on both banks of the mainstream which are concentrated with population and farmland and liable to be flooded, and 5) to strengthen networks for forecasting hydrological and meteorological conditions, then all problems such as power demand, irrigation, flood, salt water intrusion as well as acid water erosion to soil could be solved without constructing large cascaded stations and dams on the lower Mekong Mainstream. This will not only avoid input of great number of fund, large scale resettlement and land inundation, but also prevent aquatic organisms living in Mekong River from being injured due to dam construction, and promote the sustainable development of the Basin.

基于多维Copula函数的澜沧江-湄公河流域气象干旱特征分析

为全面揭示变化环境下澜湄流域多维气象干旱特征,采用标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI表征流域气象干旱,基于游程理论分别提取澜沧江段和湄公河段上、中、下游流域1901—1960年和1961—2021年两个时段的干旱事件,利用Copula函数分别构建两个时段不同子流域二维和三维干旱特征变量联合分布,计算不同干旱特征变量组合条件下的干旱联合发生概率,对比分析不同子流域多维气象干旱特征的时空变化。结果表明:时间上,1961—2021年各子流域平均干旱程度均较1901—1960年更严峻,尤其是极端干旱事件(单变量累积频率为25%、50%)的多维干旱联合发生概率增幅最大;空间上,1961—2021年,随着干旱历时、烈度和烈度峰值的增加,“或”情况下多维干旱联合发生概率最高值区自北向南转移,“且”情况下多维干旱联合发生概率最高值区自南向北转移。

澜沧江上游极端降水变化特征及未来预估研究

为探究澜沧江上游极端降水变化特征,基于中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集(CMFD)再分析数据,对第六次国际耦合模拟比较计划(CMIP6)的10个气候模式降水数据进行了极端降水模拟评估,基于年降水总量对CMIP6多模式降水数据进行了偏差纠正,预估了未来时期(近期:2020—2049年、远期:2060—2089年)极端降水的变化趋势,并探讨了其趋势变化的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)偏差纠正后CMIP6多模式极端降水指数的不确定性减小,多模式集合平均的模拟效果优于多数单一模式。(2)未来研究区的降水总量增加,年内降水日数增多,降水频率上升。未来近期,研究区各极端降水指数的变化趋势并不明显,极端降水事件呈减少趋势;未来远期,尤其是高辐射强迫下,研究区极端降水的强度和频率都呈现显著的增加趋势。(3)气候变暖导致的空气含水量增加可能是极端降水增强的原因。

环境变化对澜沧江出境水文过程变异的影响

变化环境改变河流水文节律,影响流域水资源的开发利用;澜沧江-湄公河是位于东南亚源于中国西南的跨境河流,科学厘清澜沧江径流变化原因是实现澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水利益共享的重要基础工作。基于1961—2020年允景洪水文站的实测径流量资料,采用数理统计与水文模拟相结合的研究途径,诊断径流序列的变异特征,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流及其年内分配的影响。结果表明:①1961—2020年允景洪站实测年径流量呈显著性减少趋势,其中,1—5月径流量呈增加趋势,6—12月径流量呈减少趋势;实测年径流量在2008年发生突变。②RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟基准期(1961—2008年)的天然径流量过程,模拟相对误差小于1%;模拟的人类活动影响期间(2009—2020年)天然径流量约为371.8 mm,较基准期偏少6.8%,这是气候变化引起的。③水利工程建设运行是澜沧江最主要的人类活动,是水库蓄水运行期(2009—2013年)径流减少的主要原因;气候变化对水库稳定正常运行期(2014—2020年)径流减少贡献更大,约为61.7%。④水库运行调度使得2014—2020年汛期(6—11月)径流量减少44.3%,非汛期(12月至翌年5月)径流量增加134.3%;澜沧江干流水库对径流的削峰补枯调节作用在一定程度上保障了湄公河中下游的防洪安全与供水安全。

气候变化影响下澜湄流域下游水稻生产用水量模拟与分析

农业用水是社会经济用水的主要行业,气候变化对农业用水的影响可能改变区域的水资源供需情势。以澜沧江-湄公河流域下游为研究区,基于ERA5-Land数据集和最新的CMIP6气候预测数据,选用SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5三种排放情景,AquaCrop模型将非生产性土壤蒸发和生产性作物蒸腾分离,将水稻生长期内蒸腾总量作为水稻生产用水量,模拟了澜沧江-湄公河流域下游历史和未来时期水稻生产用水量,分析了水稻生产用水量的变化情况及其与温度、降水和CO_(2)浓度之间的相关关系。结果表明:澜沧江-湄公河流域下游水稻生产用水量在空间上表现为北多南少,总体呈现逐年减少趋势,且在SSP5-8.5情景下趋势更加明显。SSP5-8.5情景下的未来远期,澜沧江-湄公河流域下游水稻生产用水量将减少29.7%。与温度和降水相比,水稻生产用水量和CO_(2)浓度之间的相关性最强。SSP5-8.5情景下的未来远期,在泰国的相关系数为-0.875,其余国家各季度下的相关系数均小于-0.9。

澜沧江流域云南松群落分布与地形因子的关系研究

依据2020年在澜沧江流域分层抽样调查的120个云南松样地数据,提取云南松群落数据和地形因子数据,采用典型对应分析法研究澜沧江流域云南松群落的分布与海拔、坡向和坡度的相关关系。结果表明,地形因子中对澜沧江流域云南松群落分布影响较大的因子为海拔,其次为坡度,坡向对云南松林分布的影响较小。

人类命运共同体视域下跨境水资源的研究进展与展望

基于CiteSpace可视化分析软件,对2013—2022年CNKI中跨境水资源相关文献进行了梳理,从整体跨境水资源与典型国际河流这两个层面分析了跨境水资源的研究进展和前沿动态。结果显示:人类命运共同体倡议提出后,跨境水资源研究经历了相对平稳和快速增长两个阶段;跨境水资源研究的核心作者主要是徐宗学、陈晓宏、何大明、周海炜等,这些学者之间已经形成了部分团队合作;河海大学商学院、中国科学院大学、武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室等是跨境水资源的主要研究机构,各研究机构间合作较少;跨境水资源研究视角多元化,其中国际水法、水外交、水安全、水利益等是研究热点,国际河流中澜沧江和珠江流域是研究热点;跨境水资源研究最新进展主要体现在流域共同体建设上,并已提出构建澜湄流域水安全共同体;未来跨境水资源研究热点可能是利益共同体与生态共同体的构建、跨境水冲突的应对机制与补偿机制、结合地缘经济政治与粮食安全等领域的研究。

澜沧江流域过鱼设施的应用探讨

澜沧江流域水资源开发对流域内河流的生态系统造成了较大影响,特别是大坝对河流的阻隔作用,直接阻断了鱼类上下行的通道,影响了鱼类的洄游、繁殖与生存。实践证明,修建有效的过鱼设施可帮助鱼类顺利通过大坝来缓解水电工程对生态环境带来的负面影响,有效保护水生物种的多样性,防止土著鱼类的灭绝。通过对澜沧江流域区系特征及鱼类资源的研究,结合水电工程已建过鱼设施对其应用进行探讨。澜沧江干流所建水电站多为高坝,只能考虑高坝过鱼设施,已建过鱼设施包括升鱼机和集运鱼系统。实际运行监测表明,这些高坝过鱼设施的建设一定程度上缓解了大坝阻隔对鱼类多样性的影响;但也存在升鱼机系统机械、电气设备故障率较高,需加强过鱼效果监测和评估等问题。

云南省澜沧江流域自然保护地生态网络构建

[目的]构建云南省澜沧江流域自然保护地生态网络,为该流域的生态安全与保护提供科学依据。[方法]以云南省澜沧江流域为研究区,选取距水体距离、距建成区距离、植被覆盖度、土地利用、坡度、高程6个生态因子构建最小积累阻力模型,将流域内国家级、省级、市县级自然保护地作为生态源地,识别源与源之间的最小阻力路径作为潜在的生态廊道,在此基础之上识别生态节点与生态断裂点,以此构建出云南省澜沧江流域的生态网络。[结果]云南省澜沧江流域生态源地数量为43个,主要集中在流域中游与下游。共构建出67条生态廊道,与澜沧江主体水系重叠度达59%;在生态网络基础之上识别出20个生态节点与41个生态断裂点,为后期生态网络的优化与修复和区域道路建设提供参考依据。[结论]根据生态源地、生态廊道、生态网络分布特点,增加澜沧江上游、威远江流域、黑江、黑河流域等地生态源地的数量,提升罗闸河、黑河、黑江、南览河流域等地河流岸边的生境质量,以生态节点和生态断裂点生态化建设作为补充,形成完整的生态保护网络,缓解栖息地孤岛化问题,促进生态源地之间的物种流动,保护区域内的生物多样性。

不同情境下公共流域水资源动态一体化调控——以澜湄流域为例

从一体化视角出发针对不同的水文情境分析公共流域水资源调控能够应对复杂多变的气候变化。文章采用DPSIR模型构建流域水资源系统分析框架,并构建其系统动力学模型组从供需方面分析流域水资源系统的因果关系。以澜沧江−湄公河流域(文中简称澜湄流域)为例,运用系统动力学模型探究流域现在和未来的水资源供需情况,结合不同水文情景进行仿真分析,分析其演化过程和调控机制。结果显示:不同水文情景下流域内的水资源供需矛盾存在较大差异,结构性措施主要影响水资源的供给,非结构性措施主要影响水资源的需求。两种类型措施单独实施时都能够缓解流域内水资源短缺的压力,但对于较为极端的水文情景,流域未来仍会面临水资源短缺的压力。当结构性措施和非结构性措施同时实施时,流域内水资源的供给具有较大韧性,即使在较为极端的水文条件下仍然能够调节流域的水资源供需平衡,有利于流域内水资源的长期可持续发展。研究结果揭示了一体化视角下澜湄流域在不同水文情境下水资源的调控效果,以及各种调控措施对水资源供需的影响,将为澜湄流域水资源系统调控的联合行动奠定了基础。

气象产品的广义联合偏差修正方法及其应用

卫星气象产品、气候模式预测数据通常与地面观测数据存在偏差,为保证数据的可靠性和合理性,需要对其进行偏差校正,但偏差校正过程往往受具体区域气象特征、方法本身假定等因素的影响,导致修正效果不佳。为此,本文提出一种广义联合偏差修正方法,相较于现有研究最常用的单变量QM修正方法以及固定多变量修正顺序的JBC修正方法,该方法充分考虑到流域尺度降水和气温双变量的时空相关性,并结合其对径流的主导作用对变量修正顺序进行动态调整,实现了QM法和JBC法的优势互补。在澜沧江-湄公河流域的应用表明:考虑降水、气温相关性可显著改善降水和温度极值的修正效果,尤其是5、6月份,修正后气象与实测数据的纳什系数提升了0.5以上;考虑气象要素的修正次序显著降低了修正后的降水和温度频率分布及均值偏差;利用修正后的气象数据驱动分布式水文模型时,部分月份的径流模拟精度提升了54.3%。

澜沧江-湄公河流域埃及伊蚊抗药性研究进展

埃及伊蚊起源于非洲,是登革热、寨卡病毒病、基孔肯雅热和黄热病等重要虫媒传染病的主要媒介。近年来,随着澜沧江-湄公河流域大量使用杀虫剂控制埃及伊蚊种群密度,埃及伊蚊对杀虫剂抗性程度不断增加。本文综述了澜沧江-湄公河流域有关区域埃及伊蚊对拟除虫菊酯、有机磷、氨基甲酸酯和有机氯杀虫剂抗药性的研究进展,为制定有效的埃及伊蚊控制策略提供参考。

欠发达流域县域经济时空差异演变及其影响因素——以云南澜沧江流域为例

以澜沧江流域县域为研究基本单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,综合运用数理统计分析与探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)相结合,对1998—2018年澜沧江流域县域经济差异的时空格局进行研究分析,同时通过地理加权回归探究其影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明,20年间澜沧江流域县域经济发展绝对差异呈不断扩大趋势,相对差异呈波动下降的轨迹,区域经济水平差异明显;澜沧江流域县域经济存在明显的空间相关性,但空间相关性随时间呈现波动变化,经济关联性较弱;县域经济空间分异特征明显,存在明显的时空演变特征,显著“低-低”集聚区位于研究区西南和西北地区部分县域,“高-高”集聚区仅包含大理市和宾川县2个县域;社会-自然双重压力对澜沧江流域县域经济发展起到严重制约作用。