Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

Spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of habitat quality in the loess hilly area of the Yellow River Basin:A case study of Lanzhou City,China

Rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to the most serious habitat degradation in China,especially in the loess hilly area of the Yellow River Basin,where the ecological environment is relatively fragile.The contradiction between economic development and ecological environment protection has aroused widespread concern.In this study,we used the habitat quality of Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST-HQ)model at different scales to evaluate the dynamic evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Lanzhou City,Gansu Province of China.The spatiotemporal variations of habitat quality were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation.A Geographical Detector(Geodetector)model was used to explore the driving factors that influencing the spatial differentiation of habitat quality,including natural factors,socio-economic factors,and ecological protection factors.The results showed that the habitat quality index of Lanzhou City decreased from 0.4638 to 0.4548 during 2000-2018.The areas with reduced the habitat quality index were mainly located in the Yellow River Basin and Qinwangchuan Basin,where are the main urban areas and the new economic development areas,respectively.The spatial distribution of habitat quality presented a trend of high in the surrounding areas and low in the middle,and showed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation.With the increase of study scale,the spatial distribution of habitat quality changed from concentrated to dispersed.The spatial differentiation of habitat quality in the study area was the result of multiple factors.Among them,topographic relief and slope were the key factors.The synergistic enhancement among these driving factors intensified the spatial differentiation of habitat quality.The findings of this study can provide a scientific basis for land resources utilization and ecosystem restoration in the arid and semi-arid land.

Channel change at Toudaoguai Station and its responses to the operation of upstream reservoirs in the upper Yellow River

The application of dams built upstream will change the input conditions, including water and sediment, of downstream fluvial system, and destroy previous dynamic quasi-equilibrium reached by channel streamflow, so indispensable adjustments are necessary for downstream channel to adapt to the new water and sediment supply, leading the fluvial system to restore its previous equilibrium or reach a new equilibrium. Using about 50-year-long hydrological, sedimentary and cross-sectional data, temporal response processes of Toudaoguai cross-section located in the upper Yellow River to the operation of reservoirs built upstream are analyzed. The results show that the Toudaoguai cross-section change was influenced strongly by upstream reservoir operation and downstream channel bed armoring thereafter occurred gradually and extended to the reach below Sanhuhekou gauging station. Besides, median diameter of suspended sediment load experienced a three-stage change that is characterized by an increase at first, then a decrease and an increase again finally, which reflects the process of channel bed armoring that began at Qingtongxia reservoir and then gradually developed downstream to the reach below Sanhuhekou cross-section. Since the joint operation strategy of Longyangxia, Liujiaxia and Qingtongxia reservoirs was introduced in 1986, the three-stage change trend has become less evident than that in the time period between 1969 and 1986 when only Qingtongxia and Liujiaxia reservoirs were put into operation alone. In addition, since 1987, the extent of lateral migration and thalweg elevation change at Toudaoguai cross-section has reduced dramatically, cross-sectional profile and location tended to be stable, which is beneficial to the normal living for local people.

Climate transformation to warm-humid and its effect on river runoff in the source region of the Yellow River

The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.

黄河流域(山东段)工业用地错配时空格局与应对策略

以黄河流域(山东段)9个设区市所辖77个区县为研究单元,利用2011—2020年山东省供地信息库中的工业用地供应数据,以及同期工业经济统计数据,分析黄河流域(山东段)工业用地供应与工业利润总额时空变化特征,通过空间错配指数分析工业用地错配时空格局,并从科学配置、存量挖潜、提质增效和层级协同4个方面提出应对策略。研究对于实现黄河流域(山东段)土地资源高效利用与聚集区域高质量发展具有重要意义。

小浪底水库运行以来对黄河下游河道河床演变特性的影响

小浪底水库自1999年10月下闸蓄水,23年来深刻改变了进入黄河下游河道的径流泥沙过程,进而引起了下游河道的再造床。本研究以1960—2022年长序列水文泥沙、断面地形、遥感影像等多源资料为基础,从径流泥沙、冲淤演变、形态调整三个方面阐明了小浪底水库运行以来对下游河道河床演变特性的影响。结果表明:(1)水库拦沙效果显著,下泄水量在年内分配更加均匀、沙量则向汛期更加集中;大流量和高含沙事件的严重程度和发生频率均有所降低;悬沙调整不明显,床沙粗化显著。(2)扭转了黄河下游河道持续淤积的趋势,冲淤调整主要发生在花园口至高村的游荡性河段;冲刷效率持续下降,主槽过流能力得到显著恢复。(3)游荡性河段横断面形态向窄深发展,二级悬河发育得到有效缓解,整体河势处于相对稳定状态。研究成果丰富了多沙河流修建水库对下游河道影响的科学认识,也可为小浪底水库优化调度提供科技支撑。

基于熵权TOPSIS的黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力评价

为评价黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力,以黄河流域甘肃段4个二级分区为研究对象,初选20个评价指标,利用信息敏感性和相关性分析法剔除敏感性较低和相关性较高的7个指标,最终确定13个评价指标。从系统角度将指标分为水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个子系统,利用熵权法与TOPSIS模型结合的方法计算综合得分,并利用障碍因子诊断模型分析4个二级分区的水资源承载力障碍因子。结果表明:空间维度上,黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力存在空间差异性,龙羊峡以上分区水资源承载力最高,龙羊峡—兰州分区与兰州—河口镇分区水资源承载力次之,龙门—三门峡分区水资源承载力最低;时间维度上,除龙羊峡以上分区外其余3个二级分区水资源承载力均有缓慢上升趋势;人均水资源量、产水模数、人均供水量、人口密度、城镇化率及生态环境用水率是影响黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力的主要障碍因子,建议优化水资源配置、调整用水结构、促使经济发展与水资源承载力相匹配等,以提升及保持黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力。

黄河流域山东段国土空间格局演变及驱动因素研究

以黄河流域山东段为研究区,结合2000—2020年土地利用数据和社会经济统计数据,从规模特征、动态变化和分布特征等方面对国土空间时空演变格局进行多维度定量分析,并采用地理探测器探析其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)规模特征方面,除乡村生活空间规模相对稳定外,其他各类国土空间增减特征显著;(2)动态变化方面,不同国土空间类型间的动态变化差异明显,且各区县单元综合动态度呈现东北高、西南低、中部突出的特征;(3)分布特征方面,各国土空间面积变化具有显著的空间集聚特征,这一特征在2010—2020年相对减弱;(4)驱动因素方面,研究区国土空间面积变化受到地形地貌、水热状况、区位情况以及社会经济等多种因素的共同影响,自然环境因素是国土空间格局演变的重要地理基础,社会经济发展则发挥着关键的推动作用。

黄河流域(山东段)村镇聚落文化景观基因识别指标体系构建

黄河流域(山东段)村镇聚落孕育了丰富独特的文化景观,建立识别指标体系对其文化景观基因进行挖掘整理,对在黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略背景下赓续传统文化具有重要意义。结合景观基因理论的研究成果和对国家有关政策法规文件的剖析,在历史景观视角下对黄河流域(山东段)的村镇聚落开展深入的文化景观田野调查、典籍研究等,提出具有针对性的文化景观基因识别指标体系构建逻辑,通过“识别对象—识别因子—识别指标”解析出13项识别因子、40项识别指标,为黄河流域村镇聚落文化景观识别全覆盖提供新的思路与方法。

植被NPP时空变化及其对气候变化的响应——以黄河内蒙古段为例

研究黄河内蒙古段植被净初级生产力(NPP)时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应,为黄河流域环境保护、生态修复等提供科学依据。基于MOD17A3和气象站点资料,运用趋势分析、偏差分析、变异系数、相关分析、残差分析等方法,探讨2002—2021年植被NPP时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)植被NPP呈波动增加趋势,2011年以前以负偏离为主,2012年以后以正偏离为主。(2)植被NPP平均值为169.15 gC·(m~2·a)^(-1),自西向东递增,101~250 gC·(m~2·a)^(-1)区域占总面积的77.0%,裸地﹤灌木﹤其他﹤草地﹤农田﹤林地。69.1%的区域植被NPP变异系数Cv≤0.2,整体稳定性较好。(3)植被NPP与气温平均偏相关系数为0.31,仅有6.7%的区域通过了0.01的显著性检验;与降水量平均偏相关系数为0.62,有81.1%的区域通过了0.01的显著性检验。说明降水量是影响研究区植被NPP显著增加的主要气候因子。(4)气候变化与人类活动共同导致植被NPP的变化。

黄河包头段冻融期水体荧蒽残留及光降解行为

作者分别于流凌期、封河期及开河期,采集黄河包头段干流水体样品,分析该河段荧蒽(Fla)的残留水平及时空变异特性,通过光降解实验探究Fla的降解过程及光敏化剂对降解行为的影响。结果表明,冻融过程中8个采样断面均有Fla检出,且未超过标准值。大部分采样点Fla含量在稳定封河期及开河期较高,各个采样点Fla含量在0.05水平上具有显著性差异,S2、S5断面浓度相对较高,S4、S6和S7点浓度较低。水中Fla可以发生直接光降解,且符合一级反应动力学方程,72 h后降解率几乎达到90%。在避光进行暗反应时,Fla浓度基本不发生变化。添加丙酮、泥沙及低浓度H2O2均可抑制Fla的降解,反应仍符合一级反应动力学方程,而较高浓度的H2O2会促进Fla的光降解,且降解反应不再符合一级反应动力学方程。

黄河下游花园口至孙口河段高效输沙洪水阈值研究

河流能量耗散率变化反映了河道水沙输移能力以及河床形态的调整规律。本文研究区域为黄河下游花园口至孙口河段,从能量耗散角度出发,结合对实测资料的统计分析,探究了河流边界阻力能耗率与来水来沙、断面形态以及河床稳定性之间的定量关系,并基于边界阻力能耗率与河床稳定性双重指标,确定了花园口至孙口河段的高效输沙洪水阈值。研究结果表明:流量是影响边界阻力能耗率的主要因素,并与边界阻力能耗率的幂次呈线性相关;随着流量增大到2000 m^(3)/s以上,边界阻力能耗率随含沙量增加呈先减弱后增强的趋势。大流量条件下边界阻力能耗率与宽深比呈负相关关系,花园口与夹河滩断面形态复杂,相关性较弱;相比之下高村与孙口断面形态简单,相关性增强。非恒定水沙条件下的河床大多处于失稳状态,在综合考虑河床形态稳定及边界阻力能耗率最低的前提下,计算得出花园口至孙口河段的洪水高效输沙临界流量约为1500 m^(3)/s,含沙量约为23 kg/m^(3)。

黄河流域(甘肃段)水资源与其他自然资源耦合协调关系研究

本文基于黄河流域(甘肃段)2009、2012、2015、2018、2021年57个县级行政区面板数据,利用耦合协调度模型测算并分析了水资源与耕地、园地、林地、草地、湿地的耦合协调关系及时空演变规律。结果表明:①研究期内黄河流域(甘肃段)水资源与耕地、园地、林地、草地、湿地的两两耦合协调关系呈不同发展规律与空间分异特征。总体上,水资源与草地、耕地、园地的耦合协调度相对较高,与林地、湿地的耦合协调度相对较低。②水资源与耕园林草湿整体上呈耦合、协调发展趋势,在空间上呈东北低、西南高的分布特征,在时间变化上未有明显波动。③研究时段内未出现明显的高耦合-高协调演化趋势,表明黄河流域(甘肃段)各类自然资源空间分布和数量分布不均衡,未来应重视设计差异化的自然资源协调发展路径,引导各类自然资源向更有序、协调的方向发展。

基于灰色关联模型的沿黄区域山东段生态安全综合评价及时空演化

以沿黄区域山东段为例,建立PSR模型构建生态安全评价指标体系,借助熵权法和灰色关联度模型对其2000—2018年展开生态安全综合评价,并进行时空演变分析。结果显示,整体上沿黄区域山东段生态安全水平呈现出波动中上升的趋势,由“不安全”向“比较安全”转变,子系统中生态响应和生态状态增加的幅度高于生态环境压力增大的幅度,生态环境有所好转;市级尺度下,山东段17地市生态安全水平有所提高,呈现出“下降-上升-下降”的倒“N”字形演变,生态安全类型以“一般安全”为主,高等级类型较少,城市生态安全问题比较严峻;城市生态安全内部空间差异明显,生态安全空间格局向东、向北转移,呈现出“东高西低”“北高南低”的高低错落分布,高等级生态安全区域从东部沿海向鲁北扩散,“临界安全”区域缩小至鲁中南和鲁西北。最后从生态环境治理与保护、优化调控三大空间、经济结构转型升级等方面提出优化路径,改善生态环境质量。

关于黄河与河套古湖河湖关系演变的假说性分析——兼论对黄河内蒙古段生态治理的启示

黄河曾经在流经河套盆地过程中形成吉兰泰、乌兰布和、巴彦淖尔、呼包4个古湖,且在高湖面时期连成统一的“河套古大湖”,其后4湖分离并分别演绎了自己的河湖关系。在研习前人相关成果基础上,通过建立整体假说性解释框架,试图按照历史顺序与逻辑顺序统一的要求对该河段河湖关系的演变过程进行重建,并为与之相关的生态系统的治理提供借鉴。研究认为:主河道构建是黄河主动实施填湖、建堤、造槽并“甩湖”的过程与结果;冲积扇是黄河填湖的主要模式,而冲积扇顶附近凸起则是湖口淤塞、移动并最终筑成黄河自然堤的主要原因;巴彦木仁与磴口两地控制点对形成鄂尔多斯一侧黄河主河道起到了关键性作用;黄河西派在高湖面期间从巴彦木仁湖口注入吉兰泰-乌兰布和古湖,与从北面入湖的黄河水共同促成贺日木西尼古砂嘴及其延伸砂脊生长,并在低湖面期将这两个湖分离。基于对所述黄河历史过往的认识,须尽可能立足高效集成利用有限水资源这一观念,将减灾与适度重造沿河湖泊和绿洲结合,营建可持续的内蒙古段黄河生态体系。

基于PLUS模型的黄河流域生态系统服务评价及多情景预测——以陕西段为例

生态系统服务长期供给与最大化是社会可持续发展的重要前提,应准确掌握生态系统服务变化趋势。基于多源数据,借助InVEST模型和生态系统服务评估体系构建等方法理论,综合分析了2000—2020年黄河流域陕西段各类型生态系统服务的时空演变特征,并利用PLUS模型对2035年其土地利用及生态系统服务变化情况进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年黄河流域陕西段综合生态系统服务值整体表现出“南高北低”的分布特征,各生态系统服务优势区域同样集中在研究区南部。(2)2000—2020年研究区内综合生态系统服务值表现为先降后升,且提升明显,高值区域由南到北不断扩大;除土壤保持服务外,其余类型生态系统服务值在研究时段内均有一定提升,且各生态系统服务间具有明显的空间分异性。(3)相较于自然发展情景,生态保护情景下林地面积提升显著,研究区中北部服务等级提升明显;建设优先情景下建设用地面积大幅增长,沿黄水系服务等级降低区域聚集明显;可持续发展情景下林地和建设用地均有扩张,研究区北部服务等级提升明显。研究结果能够为黄河流域生态综合整治及高质量发展提供科学参考。

变化环境下黄河流域内蒙古段植被与水文要素的时空协同演变

为了探明我国干旱和半干旱区植被和水的时空演变规律,通过集成多源卫星遥感观测数据、再分析数据集与模型模拟数据,得到了黄河流域内蒙古段的降水、蒸散发、径流、表层土壤含水率、陆地总水储量变化信息,解析了2003—2018年不同土地利用类型区植被与水资源的时空演变特征,探讨了植被与各水文要素之间的相互作用规律。结果表明:黄河流域内蒙古段东部森林植被覆盖度的提升促使蒸散发增加,年均蒸散发量和径流量之和较降水量高16.5 mm,导致土壤水和地下水储量下降;农田年平均净灌溉耗水量为101.3~108.9 mm,并因农田植被覆盖度逐年增大而增加;虽然草地区域年均蒸散发和径流量之和低于降水量,但草地植被覆盖度的持续增大导致水分盈余量显著降低,草地的耗水正接近其生态水文阈值;陆地总水储量等效水高以(7.5±1.9)mm/a的速率下降,区域地下水呈现亏缺趋势;降水的年际波动对植被覆盖度和蒸散发的影响逐渐减弱,对森林表层土壤含水率变化的影响也逐渐减弱。

Simulating cross-sectional geometry of the main channel in response to changes in water and sediment in Lower Yellow River

To understand the non-equilibrium morphological adjustment of a river in response to environmental changes,it is essential to(i)accurately identify how past conditions of water and sediment have impacted current morphological adjustment of the river,and(ii)establish a corresponding simulation for non-equilibrium conditions.Based on discharge and suspended sediment concentration(SSC)as well as 82 cross-sectional data items for the Huayuankou-Lijin reach of the Lower Yellow River in the period 1965-2015,the process of adjustment of the geometry of the main channel(area,width,depth,and geomorphic coefficient),and its responses to changes in discharge and SSC for different reaches are statistically analyzed.Following this,a delayed response model(DRM)of the geometry of the main channel subjected to variations in discharge and SSC is established using a multi-step analytical model,with the discharge and SSC as the main controlling factors.The results show that the area,width,and depth of the main channel decreased initially,then increased,decreased again,and finally increased again.These features of the geometry of the channel were positively correlated with the 4-year moving average discharge and negatively with the 4-year moving average SSC.The geomorphic coefficient for the Huayuankou-Sunkou reach exhibited a trend of decrease,whereas that of the Sunkou-Lijin reach decreased initially,then increased,decreased again,and finally increased again.Except for the Huayuankou-Gaocun reach in 1965-1999,the coefficient was negatively correlated with the 4-year moving average discharge and positively with SSC.The simulated values of the morphological parameters of the main channel for all sub-reaches obtained using the DRM agreed well with the measured values.This indicates that the DRM can be used to simulate the process of response of the cross-sectional geometry of the main channel to variations in the water and sediment.The results of the model show that the adjustment of the geometry of the main channel was affected by the discharge and the SSC at present(30%)as well as for the previous 7 years(70%).The proposed model offers insights into the mechanism whereby past water and sediment influence the current morphological adjustment of the river,and provides an effective method for predicting the magnitude and trend of the geometry of the main channel under different flow conditions.

黄河沿线郑州段遗产廊道空间格局构建路径研究

为实现黄河沿线区域系统保护与高质量发展,基于国内外基础研究和实践经验,构建黄河沿线郑州段遗产廊道空间格局框架并提出实现路径。针对空间边界相对明确的遗产廊道,其构建路径包括4个阶段:以全流域视角进行区域总体价值认知;在宏观尺度上利用最小累积阻力模型和空间信息技术进行生态敏感性评价,构建区域生态安全网络格局;在中观尺度上运用GIS核密度分析、层次分析法开展自然生态、历史人文景源综合评价并识别优先发展空间单元;综合考量生态安全网络格局和组团集群式分布的优势景源空间,构建“先底后图”的保护-发展空间格局,从生态空间、文化遗产空间、人居景观空间角度提出针对性策略,促进规划落地实施。借此丰富遗产廊道的规划理论与技术,以期为我国黄河流域同类型地区规划提供参考。

持续冲刷期内黄河下游河床演变特点分析

基于2006年10月至2018年11月黄河下游12个典型断面观测数据,通过分析断面主槽平滩形态特征参数变化率及深泓线和主槽中心线的摆动强度,探讨了持续冲刷期内下游河床的调整变化过程及特点。结果表明:黄河下游断面形态调整表现出既有横向展宽又有冲深下切或淤高态势;河床平面摆动促进了断面主槽形态调整,河相系数变化率与深泓线和主槽中心线摆动强度均成正相关关系;来水来沙条件是主槽形态改变的主要驱动力,且可引起局部河段深泓线摆动强度增大。通过调整小浪底水库的运行模式及布设控导工程可进一步塑造并维持稳定的黄河下游中水河槽。