New Data on Coal, Gypsum, Iron and Silica Sand Deposits and Geochemical Exploration (Pakistan): Revision of 25 Years History of Dinosaur Discoveries from Pakistan

Discoveries of many coal seams at depths by drilling carried by Geological Survey of Pakistan in Sor Range and Harnai Gochina, extended the coal seams at depth which is challenge for mine owners to exploit feasibly. Bed to bed gypsum samplings (and their chemical analyses) of huge gypsum deposits from Sulaiman foldbelt is a base for industrialist and also planers to develop cement and gypsum industries to increase export and foreign exchange for the development of area and Pakistan. Low and high grade sedimentary iron deposits, silica sand and uranium host rocks and their extensions in Sulaiman and Kirthar foldbelts are presented. Anomalies of a few base metals arise as a result of geochemical exploration carried at part of Loralai District of Balochistan. Theropod dinosaurs were frequent in India, while Poripuchian titanosaurs (Sauropoda, Dinosauria) were frequent in Pakistan. Besides some ichnotaxa, many bone taxa such as 1 titanosauriform, 14 titanosaurian sauropod (including one new titanosaur), and 3 theropod dinosaurs are established from Pakistan. Among these 12 titanosaur species and 3 theropod species are named in about 10 km2 area of Vitakri dome and 2 titanosaur species are named in about a few hundred square meter area of Mari Bohri (Kachi Bohri) which is about 10 km westward from Vitakri dome. Pakistan is a unique country which discoverd 14 diversified titanosaurs in a short area and also in a short period (67 - 66 million years ago/Ma). About 400 bones found from a few meter thick upper part of upper shale horizon of latest Maastrichtian Vitakri Formation which is base for titanosaur taxa. Cranial material is in low fraction (but include significant diverse snouts), caudal vertebrae are prominent, the cervicals, dorsals and sacrals have significant numbers, forelimb and hind limb bones have balanced fraction. Humeri, femora and tibiae are most common. To know the position of Pakistani titanosaurs among titanosaurs and sauropods, there is a need to extend list of characters for phylogenetic analyses. This broad feature list should include main characters of titanosaurs from Pakistan and also from global world.

Promotion of sexual and reproductive health in Pakistan-The role of technology and online awareness

Digital health innovations such as online webinars,websites,blogs,and health apps have been associated with increased sexual and reproductive health(SRH)among the general population.Many studies have been conducted in developed countries in the West;however,little research has been conducted in low-income countries,especially in Pakistan.The socioeconomic instability and the government's lack of awareness and knowledge have resulted in no regulations being placed to incorporate telehealth in medicine.The healthcare departments must take into consideration the lifechanging impact of telehealth and the barriers that prevent it in becoming known,to reduce the incidence of unsafe abortions and sexual health practices that prove to be a stigma in society.

Soil erosion susceptibility mapping of Hangu Region,Kohat Plateau of Pakistan using GIS and RS-based models

Soil erosion is a crucial geo-environmental hazard worldwide that affects water quality and agriculture,decreases reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation,and increases the danger of flooding and landslides.Thus,this study uses geospatial modeling to produce soil erosion susceptibility maps(SESM)for the Hangu region,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KPK),Pakistan.The Hangu region,located in the Kohat Plateau of KPK,Pakistan,is particularly susceptible to soil erosion due to its unique geomorphological and climatic characteristics.Moreover,the Hangu region is characterized by a combination of steep slopes,variable rainfall patterns,diverse land use,and distinct soil types,all of which contribute to the complexity and severity of soil erosion processes.These factors necessitate a detailed and region-specific study to develop effective soil conservation strategies.In this research,we detected and mapped 1013 soil erosion points and prepared 12 predisposing factors(elevation,aspect,slope,Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index(NDVI),drainage network,curvature,Land Use Land Cover(LULC),rainfall,lithology,contour,soil texture,and road network)of soil erosion using GIS platform.Additionally,GIS-based statistical models like the weight of evidence(WOE)and frequency ratio(FR)were applied to produce the SESM for the study area.The SESM was reclassified into four classes,i.e.,low,medium,high,and very high zone.The results of WOE for SESM show that 16.39%,33.02%,29.27%,and 21.30%of areas are covered by low,medium,high,and very high zones,respectively.In contrast,the FR results revealed that 16.50%,24.33%,35.55%,and 23.59%of the areas are occupied by low,medium,high,and very high classes.Furthermore,the reliability of applied models was evaluated using the Area Under Curve(AUC)technique.The validation results utilizing the area under curve showed that the success rate curve(SRC)and predicted rate curve(PRC)for WOE are 82%and 86%,respectively,while SRC and PRC for FR are 85%and 96%,respectively.The validation results revealed that the FR model performance is better and more reliable than the WOE.

Knowledge and discriminatory attitudes towards HIV/AIDS among the women of reproductive age group of Pakistan using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey(MICS)

Background Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)has become a major worldwide public health issue,with a focus on developing nations.Despite having a very low HIV prevalence,South Asia faces serious issues with stigma and false information because of a lack of awareness.This stigma highlights significant gaps in popular awareness while also sustaining unfavorable attitudes towards those living with HIV/AIDS.Pakistan is ranked second in South Asia for the rapidly increasing AIDS epidemic.Thorough information and optimistic outlooks are essential for successful HIV/AIDS prevention,control,and treatment.But false beliefs about how HIV/AIDS spreads lead to negative perceptions,which highlights the need to look into how women’s knowledge and attitudes about HIV/AIDS in Pakistan are influenced by sociodemographic traits and autonomy.Methods The purpose of this study is to evaluate Pakistani women’s discriminatory attitudes and level of awareness on HIV/AIDS.This study used data(the women in reproductive age 15-49 years’dataset)from the Pakistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to conduct an analytical cross-sectional analysis.To represent the respondents’attitudes and knowledge towards people living with HIV(PLHIV),two composite variables were developed and composite scored.Binary logistics regression was used to identify predictor variables and chi-square was used for bivariate analysis.Results The findings reveal that almost 90%of Pakistani women have poor knowledge and attitude with HIV/AIDS.In Punjab,72.8%of rural residents have low knowledge,whereas only 20.6%of young individuals(15-<25 years old)show the least amount of ignorance.Education is shown to be crucial,and“Higher”education is associated with superior knowledge.Urban dwellers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa typically have more expertise.Knowledge of HIV is positively correlated with education;those with higher education levels know a lot more(odds ratio[OR]=5.419).Similarly,quintiles with greater incomes show a higher likelihood of knowing about HIV(OR=6.745).The study identifies age,wealth index,place of residence,educational attainment,and exposure to contemporary media as significant predictors influencing HIV knowledge and attitudes among women in these provinces.Conclusion The majority of respondents had negative opinions regarding the virus,and the majority of women in the study knew very little about HIV.Individuals who live in metropolitan areas,have higher incomes,are better educated,are exposed to contemporary media,and are generally more aware of HIV and have more positive attitudes towards HIV/AIDS,or PLHIV.The study found that,in comparison to those living in urban environments,those from rural areas with low socioeconomic level have a negative attitude and inadequate understanding.

The Dissemination and Development of Chinese Medicine in Pakistan

The article focuses on the dissemination and development of Chinese medicine in Pakistan.Religious records show that Chinese medicine was introduced to Pakistan as early as 1,400 years ago,while Hijama(Chinese cupping)was used by Prophet Hazrat Muhammad to cure different types of diseases.Exchanges and cooperations between China and Pakistan continue to the present day.Acupuncture and moxibustion therapy,cupping therapy and herbal medicine are practiced with significant merits in today’s Pakistan.In the future,with the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative and the landmark project of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,Chinese medicine can be strengthened through cooperations at the herbal medicine trade level,the research and development level,the educational level,and the social association level.

Adult minimal change disease:Clinicopathologic characteristics,treatment response and outcome at a single center in Pakistan

BACKGROUND Minimal change disease(MCD)is a significant cause of idiopathic nephrotic syndrome(INS)in adults,representing approximately 10%-15%of INS cases.The data is scanty on clinicopathological features,treatment responses,and long-term outcomes of MCD in adults.AIM To determine the clinicopathologic characteristics,treatment responses,and medium-term outcomes of adult patients with MCD in Pakistan.METHODS This retrospective cohort study included all adult patients with biopsy-proven MCD treated at the adult nephrology clinic,Sindh institute of urology and transplantation,between January 2010 and December 2020.The data was retrieved from the original renal biopsy request forms in the histopathology archives and the case files.Data on demographics,clinical presentation,laboratory findings,treatment regimens,and outcomes were collected and analyzed.Complete remission(CR),partial remission(PR),relapse,and steroid resistance were defined according to standard criteria.Statistical analyses were performed using statistical product and service solutions,Version 22.RESULTS The study cohort included 23 adults[15(65.2%males),mean age 26.34±10.28 years].Hypertension was found in 7(30.4%)and microscopic hematuria in 10(43.4%)of participants.Laboratory findings revealed a mean serum creatinine of 1.03±1.00 mg/dL,mean serum albumin of 1.94±0.90 g/dL and mean 24-hour urinary proteins of 4.53±2.43 g.The mean follow-up time was 38.09±22.3 months.Treatment with steroids was effective in 16/18(88.8%)of patients,with 10/16(62.5%)achieving CR and 6/16(37.5%)achieving PR.Two patients were resistant to steroids and required second-line immunosuppressive therapy.Relapse occurred in 4/20(19.04%)of patients,with a mean time to first relapse of 6.5±3.31 months.At the last follow-up,18/20(85.7%)of patients were in remission,and 16/20(76.1%)maintained normal renal function.No patients progressed to end-stage renal disease or died.CONCLUSION MCD in adults shows a favorable response to steroid therapy,with a majority achieving remission.However,relapses are common,necessitating second-line immunosuppressive treatments in some cases.The study highlights the need for standardized treatment guidelines for adult MCD to optimize outcomes.

Inflammatory bowel disease in Pakistan:Low prevalence or underdiagnosis?

Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)has a low prevalence in the Global South,including Pakistan.While genetics and gut flora,influenced by diet and the environment,can contribute to this,we are exploring the possibility of underdiagnosis.Lack of facilities trained in IBD,scarcity of medications,limited health insurance for specialist referral and the current epidemic of abdominal tuberculosis could be the cause.The increasing diagnosis of IBD among Pakistani immigrants and colorectal carcinoma among the young population might be the result of this.Timely referrals by primary care physicians to gastroenterologists,along with the growing use of newer technologies such as abdominal ultrasound for diagnosis can help mitigate the challenge of low or late diagnosis of this chronic condition.

Integrating predictive modeling techniques with geospatial data for landslide susceptibility assessment in northern Pakistan

The eastern road section of the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)traverses the challenging terrain of northern Pakistan,where frequent landslides pose a significant threat to socioeconomic development and infrastructure.However,the insufficient data on landslide hazards presents a substantial challenge to practical mitigation efforts.Therefore,we conducted an extensive study to gain insight into landslide assessment along the Mansehra-Muzaffarabad-Mirpur and Mangla(MMMM)Expressway.This study involved preparing a landslide inventory,analyzing landslide causative factors,and developing landslide susceptibility models(LSMs)using published data,remote sensing interpretations,field excursions and integrated predictive techniques.We first used Pearson's correlation coefficient(PCC),variable importance factors(VIF),and information gain ratio(IGR)to evaluate multicollinearity among the selected landslide causative factors(LCFs).Then,the topographic roughness index(TRI)with VIF>5 and PCC>0.7 was considered a redundant factor and thus removed before the data modeling.Finally,we adopted multiple machine-learning methods to analyze landslide susceptibility.The results indicate that the landslide inventory contains 1,776 events,of which 674 were classified based on geometrical and lithological configurations.The IGR results show that the rainfall,lithology,PGA,drainage density,slope,and distance to fault are the most effective LCFs.The AUC values for random forest(RF)(0.901),extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)(0.884),and K-nearest neighbor(KNN)(0.872)remained higher than evidential belief function(EBF)(0.833),weight of evidence(WoE)(0.820),and certainty factor(CF)(0.810),respectively.The RF model outperformed all other models in terms of prediction.However,these models are accurate but newer in the area;thus,susceptible zones were verified with comprehensive field investigations.The northern and central regions accounted for the high and very high susceptibility classes in the final landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM)compared to the southern areas.

Asymmetric nexus between commercial policies and consumption‑based carbon emissions:new evidence from Pakistan

The current study extends the previous literature by exploring the effects of a newly discovered driver,i.e.,import taxes(as a proxy for commercial policies),on the consumption-based carbon emissions(CCO2e)for 1990Q1-2017Q4.For empirical analysis,several tests and methods,including Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test,Zivot–Andrews unit root test,asymmetric cointegration bound testing approach,non-linear ARDL,Wald-test,Granger causality test and wavelet quantile correlation(WQC)method are utilized.Furthermore,NARDL technique estimates reveal that contractionary commercial policy enhances the environmental quality by disrupting the detrimental effects of CCO2e.However,expansionary commercial policy escalates the environmental pollution by boosting the carbon emissions.Also,the exports and the renewable energy improve the ecological quality;however,GDP deteriorates the atmospheric quality by increasing the CCO2e.Besides,WQC method and the trivariate Granger causality test are deployed to confirm the robustness of the results.Based on the findings,some crucial policies are also recommended for sustainable and green development in Pakistan.

Impact of foreign direct investment on the exports of five major sectors of Pakistan’s economy:A governance perspective

This study investigates and analyses empirically the impact of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)inflows on the exports for a panel series of five large-scale manufacturing industries of Pakistan during the period 2000-2020.For this purpose,we establish export production function as based on endogenous growth theory in which role of FDI is considered as additional determinant of export.The Pedroni residual-based co-integration test and Error Correction Model(ECM)are applied for the long and short-run relationships.Pedroni residual based approach highlighted that human capitals,domestic capitals,foreign direct investments,exports,and domestic sales are co-integrated in the long run.According to results of ECM,coefficient of FDI appears to have statistical significant impact on exports and has a positive sign in the long run.Whereas,FDI does not contribute to export growth in the short run but it takes time to influence the growth patterns of the sector.On the basis of theoretical notion of endogenous growth theory,long-run coefficient of FDI may be interpreted as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on exports via export development.Thus,it can be concluded that“FDI-based endogenous growth theory”is valid in the case of Pakistan.

Geology and Mineral Deposits of Saraikistan (South Punjab, Koh Sulaiman Range) of Pakistan: A Tabular Review of Recently Discovered Biotas from Pakistan and Paleobiogeographic Link: Phylogeny and Hypodigm of Poripuchian Titanosaurs from Indo-Pakistan

Saraikistan (South Punjab and surrounding) area of Pakistan is located in the central Pakistan. This area represents Triassic-Jurassic to Recent sedimentary marine and terrestrial strata. Most of the Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic are represented by marine strata with rare terrestrial deposits, while the Late Cenozoic is represented by continental fluvial deposits. This area hosts significant mineral deposits and their development can play a significant role in the development of Saraikistan region and ultimately for Pakistan. The data of recently discovered biotas from Cambrian to Miocene age are tabulated for quick view. Mesozoic biotas show a prominent paleobiogeographic link with Gondwana and Cenozoic show Eurasian. Phylogeny and hypodigm of Poripuchian titanosaurs from India and Pakistan are hinted at here.

A Glance on the Mineral Deposits and Stratigraphic Sequential Variations and Structures in Different Sections of Indus Basin (Pakistan): New Titanosaurian Sauropod Dinosaurs from the Latest Maastrichtian Vitakri Formation of Pakistan

Indus basin hosts many significant mineral deposits like gypsum and cement raw materials, gemstones, iron, coal, marble, dimension and construction stones, petroleum and water resources, world class pink salt and other many minerals in different regions which need further exploitation and development. The construction of new water dams in different regions are vital (for availability of cheap electricity), because of available barren and fertile lands and wastage of water as flood. Further the installation of more cement industries in different regions of Indus Basin especially in middle Indus (Sulaiman Range where gypsum, clays and limestones can be available via belt) can increase export to receive more foreign exchange and make local cement cheap for the sustainable development of Pakistan. 31 stratigraphic sequential sections at different sections of Indus basins are presented to know the variation and local stratigraphy. Further here three new titanosaur taxa are being described. Saraikimasoom is based on snout;Gspsaurus, (Maojandino), Nicksaurus and Khanazeem are based on cranial, vertebral and appendicular elements;Balochisaurus, Marisaurus, Pakisaurus, and 3 new genera and species Imrankhanhero zilefatmi, Qaikshaheen masoomniazi and Ikqaumishan smqureshi based on vertebral and appendicular elements;and Sulaimanisaurus and Khetranisaurus based on only caudal vertebrae. Although Pakistani Titanosaurians seem to be proliferated found from one horizon of Vitakri Formation just below the K-Pg boundary they have a wide range of diagnostic features and key elements among titanosaurs which can be used for comparison and phylogenetic analyses with broad updated character data set of titanosaurs.

Spatial Pattern of Cotton Yield Variability and Its Response to Climate Change in Cotton Belt of Pakistan

Cotton is a revenue source for cotton-producing countries;as the second-largest crop in Pakistan,it significantly contributes to its economy.Over the past few decades,cotton productivity has become unstable in Pakistan,and climate change is one of the main factors that impact cotton yield.Due to climate change,it becomes very important to understand the change trend and its impact on cotton yield at the regional level.Here,we investigate the relationship of standardized cotton yield variability with the variability of climate factors using a 15-yr moving window.The piecewise regression was fitted to obtain the trend-shifting point of climate factors.The results show that precipitation has experienced an overall decreasing trend of–0.64 mm/yr during the study period,with opposing trends of–1.39 mm/yr and 1.52 mm/yr before and after the trend-shifting point,respectively.We found that cotton yield variability increased at a rate of 0.17%/yr,and this trend was highly correlated with the variability of climate factors.The multiple regression analysis explains that climate variability is a dominant factor and controlled 81%of the cotton production in the study area from 1990 to 2019,while it controlled 73%of the production from 1990 to 2002 and 84%from 2002 to 2019.These findings reveal that climate factors affact the distinct spatial pattern of changes in cotton yield variability at the tehsil level.

Randomized control trial of a culturally adapted behavioral activation therapy for Muslim patients with depression in Pakistan

BACKGROUND Behavioral activation therapy(BA)is as effective as cognitive behavior therapy(CBT)in treating depression and can be delivered by practitioners with much less psychological training,making it particularly suitable for low resource settings.BA that is culturally adapted for Muslims(BA-M)is a culturally adapted form of BA that has been found acceptable and feasible for Muslims with depression in the United Kingdom and Turkey;however,this is the first time that its efficacy has been determined through a definitive randomized controlled trial.AIM To compare the effectiveness of BA-M with CBT for Muslim patients with depression in Pakistan.METHODS One hundred and eight patients were randomized 1:1 to treatment arms in a parallel-group randomized controlled trial in hospital or community sites in Lahore,Pakistan.Recruitment followed self-referral or referrals from clinicians,consultants or relevant professionals at each site.Four measures were recorded by blinded assessors:The patient health questionnaire-9(PHQ-9);the BA for depression scale short form(BADS-SF);symptom checklist-revised and the World Health Organization Quality-of-Life Brief Scale.All measures were recorded at baseline and post treatment;PHQ-9 and BADS-SF were also recorded at each session and at three month follow up.The primary analysis was to regress the PHQ-9 score after therapy upon the PHQ-9 score before therapy(baseline)and the type of therapy given,that is,analysis of covariance.In addition,analysis using PHQ-9 scores collected at each therapy session was employed in a 2-level regression model.RESULTS Patients in the BA-M arm experienced greater improvement in PHQ-9 score of 1.95 units compared to the CBT arm after adjusting for baseline values(P=0.006)The key reason behind this improvement was that patients were retained in therapy longer under BA-M,in which patients were retained for an average 0.75 sessions more than CBT patients(P=0.013).Patients also showed significant differences on physical(P<0.001),psychological(P=0.004)and social(P=0.047)domains of Quality of Life(QoL)at post treatment level,indicating an increased QoL in the BA-M group as compared to the treatment as usual group.Some baseline differences were noted in both groups for BA scores and two domains of QoL scale:Physical and environment,which might have influenced the results,though the BA-M group showed more improvement at completion of therapy.CONCLUSION Results proved the efficacy of BA-M in reducing symptoms for depressed patients in Pakistan,indicating BA-M is a promising treatment modality for depression in future,particularly in low resource settings.

Gandhara Heritage Along the Silk Road A Pakistan-China Joint Exhibition Held in the Palace Museum

From the perspective of the development of ancient Gandhara civilization,the exhibition shows the visitors the artistic charm of Gandhara culture and its influence.Among them,30 artifacts from the Palace Museum witness the long history of cultural and artistic exchanges between China and Pakistan.

Heritage Impact Assessment (HIA) as an Alternative Evaluation Tool for Historical Built Heritages in Lahore, Pakistan

Heritage Impact Assessments(HIAs)are progressively needed to investigate potential impacts and outcomes of development on the Outstanding Universal Value(OUV)of world heritage properties.However,many key stakeholders involved in implementing the World Heritage Convention lack the management system,methodological tools,and guidelines to conduct effective impact assessments in areas without these resources.The paper explores the successful utilization of the Heritage Impact Assessment(HIA)tool to address concerns raised by UNESCO and civil society.This occurred when the Punjab government initiated the Orange Line Metro Train Project(OLMT)near the World Heritage Shalimar Garden and other historic monuments in Lahore.The project aimed to meet the daily transportation needs of around 2.5 million commuters.

Landslide inventory and susceptibility modelling using geospatial tools,in Hunza-Nagar valley,northern Pakistan

A comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility maps are prerequisite for developing and implementing landslide mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility maps for the landslides prone regions in northern Pakistan are rarely available. The Hunza-Nagar valley in northern Pakistan is known for its frequent and devastating landslides. In this paper, we have developed a landslide inventory map for Hunza-Nagar valley by using the visual interpretation of the SPOT-5 satellite imagery and mapped a total of 172 landslides. The landslide inventory was subsequently divided into modelling and validation data sets. For the development of landslide susceptibility map seven discrete landslide causative factors were correlated with the landslide inventory map using weight of evidence and frequency ratio statistical models. Four different models of conditional independence were used for the selection of landslide causative factors. The produced landslides susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and area under curves criteria. The prediction power of the models was also validated with the prediction rate curve. The validation results shows that the success rate curves of the weight of evidence and the frequency models are 82% and 79%, respectively. The prediction accuracy results obtained from this study are 84% for weight of evidence model and 80% for the frequency ratio model. Finally, the landslide susceptibility index maps were classified into five different varying susceptibility zones. The validation and prediction result indicates that the weight of evidence and frequency ratio model are reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map, which may be helpful for landslides management strategies.

Landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment using multiple statistical approaches along the Karakoram highway,northern Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)is a framework of regional connectivity,which will not only benefit China and Pakistan but will have positive impact on Iran,Afghanistan,India,Central Asian Republic,and the region.The surrounding area in CPEC is prone to frequent disruption by geological hazards mainly landslides in northern Pakistan.Comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment are rarely available to utilize for landslide mitigation strategies.This study aims to utilize the high-resolution satellite images to develop a comprehensive landslide inventory and subsequently develop landslide susceptibility maps using multiple techniques.The very high-resolution(VHR)satellite images are utilized to develop a landslide inventory using the visual image classification techniques,historic records and field observations.A total of 1632 landslides are mapped in the area.Four statistical models i.e.,frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression were used for landslide susceptibility modeling by comparing the landslide inventory with the topographic parameters,geological features,drainage and road network.The developed landslides susceptibility maps were verified using the area under curve(AUC)method.The prediction power of the model was assessed by the prediction rate curve.The success rate curves show 93%,92.8%,92.7%and 87.4%accuracy of susceptibility maps for frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression,respectively.The developed landslide inventory and susceptibility maps can be used for land use planning and landslide mitigation strategies.

Meteorological impacts on evapotranspiration in different climatic zones of Pakistan

Arid regions are highly vulnerable and sensitive to drought. The crops cultivated in arid zones are at high risk due to the high evapotranspiration and water demands. This study analyzed the changes in seasonal and annual evapotranspiration（ET） during 1951–2016 at 50 meteorological stations located in the extremely arid, arid, and semi-arid zones of Pakistan using the Penman Monteith（PM） method. The results show that ET is highly sensitive and positively correlated to temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed whereas vapor pressure is negatively correlated to ET. The study also identifies the relationship of ET with the meteorological parameters in different climatic zones of Pakistan. The significant trend analysis of precipitation and temperature（maximum and minimum） are conducted at 95% confidence level to determine the behaviors of these parameters in the extremely arid, arid, and semi-arid zones. The mean annual precipitation and annual mean maximum temperature significantly increased by 0.828 mm/a and 0.014℃/a in the arid and extremely arid zones, respectively. The annual mean minimum temperature increased by 0.017℃/a in the extremely arid zone and 0.019℃/a in the arid zone, whereas a significant decrease of 0.007℃/a was observed in the semi-arid zone. This study provides probabilistic future scenarios that would be helpful for policy-makers, agriculturists to plan effective irrigation measures towards the sustainable development in Pakistan.

The Role of Aga Khan Rural Support Programme in Rural Development in the Karakorum, Hindu Kush & Himalayan Region: Examples from the Northern Mountainous Belt of Pakistan

Pakistan is predominantly a mountainous country where rural development activities are characterised by inconsistency, politically motivated short-term projects without proper feedback. Since the inception of the country, the top-down approach has been followed, and the same development plans that were formulated for the plain areas have been extended to the mountains without any modification. In doing so, neither the participation of the local communities was cared for, nor the mountain specificities were considered in the planning process. Moreover, the representation of the local inhabitants was improper and contradictory to the facts. This biased approach has been one of the main causes for the failure of development projects carried out by different agencies of the Government. Contrary to the perception of the state authorities, the mountain communities proved to be more open to accept new approaches and demonstrated the capacity and capability of being a dependable development partner. In this paper, a detailed account of the Aga Khan Rural Support Programme （AKRSP） has been presented to assess and evaluate the approach followed by this non-governmental organisation （NGO）, and the response of the local inhabitants as collaborators in the development process. The achievements of the AKRSP from project planning, implementation and monitoring can be adopted as a model for rural development not only in the plains, but also in the mountainous areas of the developing countries in the world.