An effective power quality prediction for regional power grid can provide valuable references and contribute to the discovering and solving of power quality problems. So a predicting model for power quality steady sta...An effective power quality prediction for regional power grid can provide valuable references and contribute to the discovering and solving of power quality problems. So a predicting model for power quality steady state index based on chaotic theory and least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is proposed in this paper. At first, the phase space reconstruction of original power quality data is performed to form a new data space containing the attractor. The new data space is used as training samples for the LSSVM. Then in order to predict power quality steady state index accurately, the particle swarm algorithm is adopted to optimize parameters of the LSSVM model. According to the simulation results based on power quality data measured in a certain distribution network, the model applies to several indexes with higher forecasting accuracy and strong practicability.展开更多
Electricity is the guarantee of economic development and daily life. Thus, accurate monthly electricity consumption forecasting can provide reliable guidance for power construction planning. In this paper, a hybrid mo...Electricity is the guarantee of economic development and daily life. Thus, accurate monthly electricity consumption forecasting can provide reliable guidance for power construction planning. In this paper, a hybrid model in combination of least squares support vector machine(LSSVM) model with fruit fly optimization algorithm(FOA) and the seasonal index adjustment is constructed to predict monthly electricity consumption. The monthly electricity consumption demonstrates a nonlinear characteristic and seasonal tendency. The LSSVM has a good fit for nonlinear data, so it has been widely applied to handling nonlinear time series prediction. However, there is no unified selection method for key parameters and no unified method to deal with the effect of seasonal tendency. Therefore, the FOA was hybridized with the LSSVM and the seasonal index adjustment to solve this problem. In order to evaluate the forecasting performance of hybrid model, two samples of monthly electricity consumption of China and the United States were employed, besides several different models were applied to forecast the two empirical time series. The results of the two samples all show that, for seasonal data, the adjusted model with seasonal indexes has better forecasting performance. The forecasting performance is better than the models without seasonal indexes. The fruit fly optimized LSSVM model outperforms other alternative models. In other words, the proposed hybrid model is a feasible method for the electricity consumption forecasting.展开更多
Improving the prediction accuracy of wind power is an effective means to reduce the impact of wind power on power grid.Therefore,we proposed an improved African vulture optimization algorithm(AVOA)to realize the predi...Improving the prediction accuracy of wind power is an effective means to reduce the impact of wind power on power grid.Therefore,we proposed an improved African vulture optimization algorithm(AVOA)to realize the prediction model of multi-objective optimization least squares support vector machine(LSSVM).Firstly,the original wind power time series was decomposed into a certain number of intrinsic modal components(IMFs)using variational modal decomposition(VMD).Secondly,random numbers in population initialization were replaced by Tent chaotic mapping,multi-objective LSSVM optimization was introduced by AVOA improved by elitist non-dominated sorting and crowding operator,and then each component was predicted.Finally,Tent multi-objective AVOA-LSSVM(TMOALSSVM)method was used to sum each component to obtain the final prediction result.The simulation results show that the improved AVOA based on Tent chaotic mapping,the improved non-dominated sorting algorithm with elite strategy,and the improved crowding operator are the optimal models for single-objective and multi-objective prediction.Among them,TMOALSSVM model has the smallest average error of stroke power values in four seasons,which are 0.0694,0.0545 and 0.0211,respectively.The average value of DS statistics in the four seasons is 0.9902,and the statistical value is the largest.The proposed model effectively predicts four seasons of wind power values on lateral and longitudinal precision,and faster and more accurately finds the optimal solution on the current solution space sets,which proves that the method has a certain scientific significance in the development of wind power prediction technology.展开更多
The predictive model of surface roughness of the spiral bevel gear (SBG) tooth based on the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) was proposed.A nonlinear LSSVM model with radial basis function (RBF) kernel was ...The predictive model of surface roughness of the spiral bevel gear (SBG) tooth based on the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) was proposed.A nonlinear LSSVM model with radial basis function (RBF) kernel was presented and then the experimental setup of PECF system was established.The Taguchi method was introduced to assess the effect of finishing parameters on the gear tooth surface roughness,and the training data was also obtained through experiments.The comparison between the predicted values and the experimental values under the same conditions was carried out.The results show that the predicted values are found to be approximately consistent with the experimental values.The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is 2.43% for the surface roughness and 2.61% for the applied voltage.展开更多
文摘An effective power quality prediction for regional power grid can provide valuable references and contribute to the discovering and solving of power quality problems. So a predicting model for power quality steady state index based on chaotic theory and least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is proposed in this paper. At first, the phase space reconstruction of original power quality data is performed to form a new data space containing the attractor. The new data space is used as training samples for the LSSVM. Then in order to predict power quality steady state index accurately, the particle swarm algorithm is adopted to optimize parameters of the LSSVM model. According to the simulation results based on power quality data measured in a certain distribution network, the model applies to several indexes with higher forecasting accuracy and strong practicability.
基金National Social Science Foundation of China(No.18AGL028)Social Science Foundation of the Higher Education Institutions Jiangsu Province,China(No.2018SJZDI070)Social Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Province,China(Nos.16ZZB004,17ZTB005)
文摘Electricity is the guarantee of economic development and daily life. Thus, accurate monthly electricity consumption forecasting can provide reliable guidance for power construction planning. In this paper, a hybrid model in combination of least squares support vector machine(LSSVM) model with fruit fly optimization algorithm(FOA) and the seasonal index adjustment is constructed to predict monthly electricity consumption. The monthly electricity consumption demonstrates a nonlinear characteristic and seasonal tendency. The LSSVM has a good fit for nonlinear data, so it has been widely applied to handling nonlinear time series prediction. However, there is no unified selection method for key parameters and no unified method to deal with the effect of seasonal tendency. Therefore, the FOA was hybridized with the LSSVM and the seasonal index adjustment to solve this problem. In order to evaluate the forecasting performance of hybrid model, two samples of monthly electricity consumption of China and the United States were employed, besides several different models were applied to forecast the two empirical time series. The results of the two samples all show that, for seasonal data, the adjusted model with seasonal indexes has better forecasting performance. The forecasting performance is better than the models without seasonal indexes. The fruit fly optimized LSSVM model outperforms other alternative models. In other words, the proposed hybrid model is a feasible method for the electricity consumption forecasting.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61662042,62062049)Science and Technology Plan of Gansu Province(Nos.21JR7RA288,21JR7RE174).
文摘Improving the prediction accuracy of wind power is an effective means to reduce the impact of wind power on power grid.Therefore,we proposed an improved African vulture optimization algorithm(AVOA)to realize the prediction model of multi-objective optimization least squares support vector machine(LSSVM).Firstly,the original wind power time series was decomposed into a certain number of intrinsic modal components(IMFs)using variational modal decomposition(VMD).Secondly,random numbers in population initialization were replaced by Tent chaotic mapping,multi-objective LSSVM optimization was introduced by AVOA improved by elitist non-dominated sorting and crowding operator,and then each component was predicted.Finally,Tent multi-objective AVOA-LSSVM(TMOALSSVM)method was used to sum each component to obtain the final prediction result.The simulation results show that the improved AVOA based on Tent chaotic mapping,the improved non-dominated sorting algorithm with elite strategy,and the improved crowding operator are the optimal models for single-objective and multi-objective prediction.Among them,TMOALSSVM model has the smallest average error of stroke power values in four seasons,which are 0.0694,0.0545 and 0.0211,respectively.The average value of DS statistics in the four seasons is 0.9902,and the statistical value is the largest.The proposed model effectively predicts four seasons of wind power values on lateral and longitudinal precision,and faster and more accurately finds the optimal solution on the current solution space sets,which proves that the method has a certain scientific significance in the development of wind power prediction technology.
基金Project(90923022) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2009220022) supported by Liaoning Science and Technology Foundation,China
文摘The predictive model of surface roughness of the spiral bevel gear (SBG) tooth based on the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) was proposed.A nonlinear LSSVM model with radial basis function (RBF) kernel was presented and then the experimental setup of PECF system was established.The Taguchi method was introduced to assess the effect of finishing parameters on the gear tooth surface roughness,and the training data was also obtained through experiments.The comparison between the predicted values and the experimental values under the same conditions was carried out.The results show that the predicted values are found to be approximately consistent with the experimental values.The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is 2.43% for the surface roughness and 2.61% for the applied voltage.
