A Novel Hybrid FA-Based LSSVR Learning Paradigm for Hydropower Consumption Forecasting

Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support vector regression （LSSVR）, i.e., FA-based LSSVR model. In the novel model, the powerful and effective artificial intelligence （AI） technique, i.e., LSSVR, is employed to forecast hydropower consumption. Furthermore, a promising AI optimization tool, i.e., FA, is espe- cially introduced to address the crucial but difficult task of parameters determination in LSSVR （e.g., hyper and kernel function parameters）. With the Chinese hydropower consumption as sample data, the empirical study has statistically confirmed the superiority of the novel FA-based LSSVR model to other benchmark models （including existing popular traditional econometric models, AI models and similar hybrid LSSVRs with other popular parameter searching tools）~ in terms of level and direc- tional accuracy. The empirical results also imply that the hybrid FA-based LSSVR learning paradigm with powerful forecasting tool and parameters optimization method can be employed as an effective forecasting tool for not only hydropower consumption but also other complex data.

Novel Real-Time Seam Tracking Algorithm Based on Vector Angle and Least Square Method

Real-time seam tracking can improve welding quality and enhance welding efficiency during the welding process in automobile manufacturing.However,the teaching-playing welding process,an off-line seam tracking method,is still dominant in automobile industry,which is less flexible when welding objects or situation change.A novel real-time algorithm consisting of seam detection and generation is proposed to track seam.Using captured 3D points,space vectors were created between two adjacent points along each laser line and then a vector angle based algorithm was developed to detect target points on the seam.Least square method was used to fit target points to a welding trajectory for seam tracking.Furthermore,the real-time seam tracking process was simulated in MATLAB/Simulink.The trend of joint angles vs.time was logged and a comparison between the off-line and the proposed seam tracking algorithm was conducted.Results show that the proposed real-time seam tracking algorithm can work in a real-time scenario and have high accuracy in welding point positioning.

STRONG CONVERGENCE RATES OF SEVERAL ESTIMATORS IN SEMIPARAMETRIC VARYING-COEFFICIENT PARTIALLY LINEAR MODELS

This article is concerned with the estimating problem of semiparametric varyingcoefficient partially linear regression models. By combining the local polynomial and least squares procedures Fan and Huang （2005） proposed a profile least squares estimator for the parametric component and established its asymptotic normality. We further show that the profile least squares estimator can achieve the law of iterated logarithm. Moreover, we study the estimators of the functions characterizing the non-linear part as well as the error variance. The strong convergence rate and the law of iterated logarithm are derived for them, respectively.

Optimal Scheduling of Residential Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning

Residential heating, ventilation and air conditioning(HVAC) provides important demand response resources for the new power system with high proportion of renewable energy. Residential HAVC scheduling strategies that adapt to realtime electricity price signals formulated by demand response program and ambient temperature can significantly reduce electricity costs while ensuring occupants' comfort. However, since the pricing process and weather conditions are affected by many factors, conventional model-based method is difficult to meet the scheduling requirements in complex environments. To solve this problem, we propose an adaptive optimal scheduling strategy for residential HVAC based on deep reinforcement learning(DRL) method. The scheduling problem can be regarded as a Markov decision process(MDP). The proposed method can adaptively learn the state transition probability to make economical decision under the tolerance violations. Specifically, the residential thermal parameters obtained by the leastsquares parameter estimation(LSPE) can provide a basis for the state transition probability of MDP. Daily simulations are verified under the electricity prices and temperature data sets, and numerous experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Accurate single-observer passive coherent location estimation based on TDOA and DOA

This paper investigates the problem of target position estimation with a single-observer passive coherent location（PCL） system. An approach that combines angle with time difference of arrival（ATDOA） is used to estimate the location of a target. Compared with the TDOA-only method which needs two steps, the proposed method estimates the target position more directly. The constrained total least squares（CTLS） technique is applied in this approach. It achieves the Cramer–Rao lower bound（CRLB） when the parameter measurements are subject to small Gaussian-distributed errors. Performance analysis and the CRLB of this approach are also studied. Theory verifies that the ATDOA method gets a lower CRLB than the TDOA-only method with the same TDOA measuring error. It can also be seen that the position of the target affects estimating precision.At the same time, the locations of transmitters affect the precision and its gradient direction.Compared with the TDOA, the ATDOA method can obtain more precise target position estimation.Furthermore, the proposed method accomplishes target position estimation with a single transmitter,while the TDOA-only method needs at least four transmitters to get the target position. Furthermore,the transmitters＇ position errors also affect precision of estimation regularly.

TESTING SERIAL CORRELATION IN SEMIPARAMETRIC VARYING COEFFICIENT PARTIALLY LINEAR ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL

The authors propose a V_(N,p) test statistic for testing finite-order serial correlation in asemiparametric varying coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables model.The test statistic is shownto have asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation.Some MonteCarlo experiments are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed V_(N,p) teststatistic.Simulation results confirm that the proposed test performs satisfactorily in estimated sizeand power.

Partial Least Squares Method for Treatment Effect in Observational Studies with Censored Outcomes

To estimate the true treatment effect on a censored outcome in observational studies, potential confounding effect and complex heterogeneity in the treatment assignment have to be properly adjusted. In this article, we demonstrate that the partial least squares method could be a valuable tool in this regard. It is showed that the partial least squares method not only can adequately account for the heterogeneity in treatment assignment, but also be robust to treatment assignment model misspecifications. Numerical results show that the partial least squares estimator is more efficient and robust. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the proposed method.

Simultaneous Determination of Oil and Water in Soybean by LF-NMR Relaxometry and Chemometrics

A fast, non-destructive and eco-friendly method was developed to simultaneously determine the oil and water contents of soybean based on low field nuclear magnetic resonance（LF-NMR） relaxometry combined with chemometrics, such as partial least squares regression（PLSR）. The Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill（CPMG） magnetiza- tion decay data of ten soybean samples were acquired by LF-NMR and directly applied to the PLSR analysis. Cali- bration models were established via PLSR with full cross-validation based on the reference values obtained by the Soxhlet extraction method for measuring oil and oven-drying method for measuring water. The results indicate that the calibration models are satisfactory for both oil and water determinations; the root mean squared errors of cross-validation（RMSECV） for oil and water are 0.2285% and 0.0178%, respectively. Furthermore, the oil and water contents in unknown soybean samples were predicted by the PLSR models and the results were compared with the reference values. The relative errors of the predicted oil and water contents were in ranges of 1.25%---4.96% and 0.44%--2.49%, respectively. These results demonstrate that the combination of LF-NMR relaxometry with chemo- metrics shows great potential for the simultaneous determination of contents of oil and water in soybean with high accuracy.

Iterative weighted partial spline least squares estimation in semiparametric modeling of longitudinal data

In this paper we consider the estimating problem of a semiparametric regression modelling whenthe data are longitudinal. An iterative weighted partial spline least squares estimator (IWPSLSE) for the para-metric component is proposed which is more efficient than the weighted partial spline least squares estimator(WPSLSE) with weights constructed by using the within-group partial spline least squares residuals in the senseof asymptotic variance. The asymptotic normality of this IWPSLSE is established. An adaptive procedure ispresented which ensures that the iterative process stops after a finite number of iterations and produces anestimator asymptotically equivalent to the best estimator that can be obtained by using the iterative proce-dure. These results are generalizations of those in heteroscedastic linear model to the case of semiparametric regression.

ASYMPTOTIC CANONICAL FORMS AND ITERATED LOGARITHM RATE RESULTS OF LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATES FOR UNSTABLE ARMA MODELS

Herein we give the asymptotic canonical forms of the design mains Pn where is an unstable ARMA process B denotes the backshift operator such that B, and p is the order of the polynomial having all roots outside or on the unit circle. These asymptotic canonical forms for Pn, which behave a.s. approximately diagonally, are then used to obtain the itersted logarithm rates of almost sure convergence of the least-squares estimates to the unknown true parameter for an unstable time series.