Labor shortage and the rise of wages in China have generated heated debate on the arrival of the Lewisian Turning Point. Based on an empirical study of macroeconomic data for 284 prefecture-level cities, this paper ar...Labor shortage and the rise of wages in China have generated heated debate on the arrival of the Lewisian Turning Point. Based on an empirical study of macroeconomic data for 284 prefecture-level cities, this paper argues that the dual economy transition in China involves the coexistence of urbanization, industrialization and open economy. However, China has not yet arrived at the Lewisian Turning Point, because wage gaps between different industries and regions still exist and surplus labor is still being attracted to the labor-intensive manufacturing and tertiary industries in the eastern provinces. External economic shock and the mismatch between industrialization and urbanization are the primary causes of the coexistence of labor surplus and labor shortage.展开更多
Widespread shortages of migrant labor in China have aroused acrimonious debate about whether the economy has arrived at the Lewisian turning point, which would have significant implications for policymakers. We collec...Widespread shortages of migrant labor in China have aroused acrimonious debate about whether the economy has arrived at the Lewisian turning point, which would have significant implications for policymakers. We collected panel data from China ＇s 31 provinces2 over the period 1990 to 2009 and conducted empirical test according to Minami＇s criteria. Our results indicate that China＇s economy has passed the first Lewisian turning point but do not provide evidence that China has reached the second Lewisian turning point.展开更多
文摘Labor shortage and the rise of wages in China have generated heated debate on the arrival of the Lewisian Turning Point. Based on an empirical study of macroeconomic data for 284 prefecture-level cities, this paper argues that the dual economy transition in China involves the coexistence of urbanization, industrialization and open economy. However, China has not yet arrived at the Lewisian Turning Point, because wage gaps between different industries and regions still exist and surplus labor is still being attracted to the labor-intensive manufacturing and tertiary industries in the eastern provinces. External economic shock and the mismatch between industrialization and urbanization are the primary causes of the coexistence of labor surplus and labor shortage.
基金This paper was supported by the National Social Science Foundation （07BJY049） the Ministry of Education Project of Humanities and Social Science （06JA630058） and ＂211 Project＂ of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics.
文摘Widespread shortages of migrant labor in China have aroused acrimonious debate about whether the economy has arrived at the Lewisian turning point, which would have significant implications for policymakers. We collected panel data from China ＇s 31 provinces2 over the period 1990 to 2009 and conducted empirical test according to Minami＇s criteria. Our results indicate that China＇s economy has passed the first Lewisian turning point but do not provide evidence that China has reached the second Lewisian turning point.
