Study on a gravity precursor mode of the M_S=7.0 Lijiang earthquake

To study the seismogeny process or the precursory behavior of the 1976 MS=7.0 Lijiang earthquake, we analyze the repeat gravity data with high precision from the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Experiment Area (WYEPEA) and the related results of geology and geophysics survey in this paper. Considering the gross errors caused by observation data and model difference, we have firstly inverted the slip distribution of the main active faults with time based on the robust Bayesian least squares estimation and multi-fault dislocation model. The re-sults show that the slip changes of the faults with time from 1990 to 1997 obviously reflect the preparation process of the Lijiang earthquake. The images of main precursor mode have the characteristic of main shock-after shock type, which is agreement to the model of coupling movement between crust density and crust deformation (DD mode of coupling movement).

Analyses on gravity variation before and after the Lijiang earthquake based on a finite rectangular dislocation model

The methods were discussed to calculate the gravity variation due to crustal deformation based on a model of dis-location on a finite rectangular plane. Taking the Lijiang MS=7.0 earthquake as an example the calculating princi-ple of fault parameters were determined, and the results were given. Of particular interests were the characteristics of the gravity variations in different dislocation types. With comparison between the calculated results and the practical measurements, it was found that the model could to some extent account for the observations. But it failed to give explanations to the more far spatial gravity variation.

The middle-long term prediction of the February 3,1996 Lijiang earthquake(M_S=7) by the "criterion of activity in quiescence

Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M_≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M_≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M_s=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M_s=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M_s=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The windows of 'activity in quiescence' identified statistically by us are 1940-1945, 1958-1961 and 1979-1986. Using the 'criterion of activity in quiescence' to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China,the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M_s=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.

Seismotectonic environment of occurring the February 3, 1996 Lijiang M=7.0 earthquake, Yunnan Province

Lijiang-Daju fault, the seismogenic fault of the 1996 Lijiang M=7.0 earthquake, can be divided into Lijiang-Yuhu segment in the south and Yuhu-Daju segment in the north. The two segments show clear difference in geological tectonics, but have the similar dynamic features. Both normal dip-slip and sinistral strike-slip coexist on the fault plane. This kind of movement started at the beginning of the Quaternary (2.4~2.5 Ma B.P.). As to the tectonic types, the detachment fault with low angle was developed in the Early Pleistocene and the normal fault with high angle only after the Mid-Pleistocene (0.8 Ma B.P.). Based on the horizontal displacements of gullies and the vertical variance of planation surfaces cross the Lijiang-Daju fault at east piedmont of Yulong-Haba range, the average horizontal and vertical slip rates are calculated. They are 0.84 mm/a and 0.70 mm/a since the Quaternary and 1.56 mm/a and 1.69 mm/a since the Mid-Pleistocene. The movements of the nearly N-S-trending Lijiang-Daju fault are controlled not only by the regional stress field, but also by the variant movement between the Yulong-Haba range and Lijiang basin. The two kinds of dynamic processes form the characteristics of seismotectonic environment of occurring the 1996 Lijiang earthquake.

Improvement of Computation Method of Fault Motion Coordination Ratio and Analysis of Earthquake Cases

According to the concept of the fault motion coordination ratio( FCR),this paper discusses the effect of the starting point on the result of FCR calculation and puts forward the calculation method for FCR using the sliding window and the index for evaluating the dispersion. Earthquake cases analysis shows that at the Lijiang site across the fault: the FCR value varied greatly and its distribution was dispersive before the MS7. 0 Lijiang earthquake,while the value was stable and less dispersive after the earthquake,which reflects the strain accumulation of the fault during the seismogenic process and the poor movement coordination between the motion of the three components. After the earthquake,the fault was in a free activity state,the accumulated strain energy released, and the movement of the three components was coordinated mutually. At present,FCR dispersion of Lijiang is at a low value,and fault strain accumulation is at a low level.