Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.

Preliminary Research on Biological Characteristics of Scopula subpunctaria in Shandong Tea Region

[Objectives]The paper was to observe the life history and living habits of Scopula subpunctaria in Shandong tea region.[Methods]The occurrence period and duration of each insect state,as well as duration of each instar larvae in various generations were investigated and statistically analyzed.[Results]There were 6 generations of S.subpunctaria per year in Shandong tea region.Different from southern tea region,S.subpunctaria survived the winter as pupae and larvae in tea trees in Shandong,and the duration of overwintering eggs was greatly affected by temperature.The generations of S.subpunctaria overlapped seriously.[Conclusions]The results provide a basis for the comprehensive treatment of S.subpunctaria in Shandong tea region.

Biological Characteristics and Control Techniques of Zeuzera coffeae Nietner in Coffee Garden

Zeuzera coffeae Nietner is a kind of pest which bores branches and trunks of coffee trees and grows in the interior of trees.It is widely distributed in China.This paper discussed the distribution,life history,morphological characteristics,living habits and damage characteristics of Z.coffeae,and focused on the prevention and control measures,which can provide a reference for the comprehensive control of Z.coffeae.

Epidemiological Investigation of Risk Factors of the Pregnant Women with Early Spontaneous Abortion in Beijing

Objective： To determine the risk factors of the pregnant women with early spontaneous abortion in Beijing. Methods： A total of 34,417 cases of pregnant women were participated in the survey from January 2000 to December 2013. A questionnaire was informed to each woman. The content of questionnaire includes four parts： general condition, obstetrical history, past history and family history, and living environment and habits. The mental condition was evaluated with Self-Rating Anxiety Scale（SAS） and Self-Rating Depression Scale（SDS）. Results： A total of 32,296 questionnaires were collected. The spontaneous abortion rate in the total sample was 3.0%. There was no significant difference between the normal pregnancy group and spontaneous abortion group in terms of general condition, obstetrical and past history（P〉0.05）. Significant differences between the two groups were found in terms of decoration during pregnancy, keeping pets, near mobile communication base station within 100 m around the residence, drinking during pregnancy, having a cold during pregnancy and SAS（P〈0.05）. Having a cold during pregnancy, decoration during pregnancy, near mobile communication base station within 100 m around the residence, keeping pets and high SAS were determined the independent risk factors of spontaneous abortion by Logistic regression analysis. Conclusions： Having a cold during pregnancy, decoration, keeping pets, near mobile communication base station within 100 m around the residence and high SAS are the independent risk factors of spontaneous abortion in Beijing.