Experimental Research on the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory

Implementing acoustic emission experiments with large rock samples, LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) theory was studied. The loading conditions in the experiments were designed to simulate the complicated loading process of underground rocks. The damages emerging inside the rock samples were recorded by the acoustic emission technique during the loading process. The experimental results were consistent with prediction by LURR theory. Integrating the changing processes of LURR value Y and the location process of acoustic emission events showed agreement between the variation of LURR value Y and the damage evolution inside the rocks. Furthermore, the high value of Y emerged before the complete breakdown of materials. Therefore, the damage evolution of rock specimen can be quantitatively analyzed with LURR theory, thus the failure of the rock materials and the earthquake occurrence may be predicted. The experimental results gave a further verification of LURR theory.

The spatial temporal evolution characteristics of the load／unload response ratio（LURR） and its implications for predicting the three elements of earthquakes

The spatial temPOral evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (Y) before strong earthquakes is studied in this paper. The results show that the regions of high value of Y migrate and converge to the impending earthquake epicenter from different directions before the occurrence of the event. Basing on this discovery, it is proposed that the method can be used to predict the three elements of an earthquake. It was applied to predict that an earthquake would occur in the western part of Yunnan Province, southwestern China. The three elements (time, space and magnitude) of the Menglian earthquake with Ms7.3 which occurred on July 12, 1995 in Yunnan Province tallied with our prediction.

The Experimental Simulation of Rocks on Load/Unload Response Ratio for Earthquake Prediction

The load/unload experiments on rock failure under pressure have been carried out in Material Test System (MTS) in the Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics of Continuous Media (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and load/unload response ratio (LURR) values with strain as response (i.e. inverse elastic constant as response rate) have been obtained. The experimental results are in accordance with theoretical results and those in real earthquakes: LURR rises just before rock failure. So LURR can be used as the precursor of rock failure and earthquake prediction.

Short-term and imminent anomalies of earthquake of load and unload response ratio of the well level to earth tides

In this paper, through the nonlinear response of rock strain and stress, we have analized the physical mechanism of loading and unloading response ratio of the well level to the earth tides,the respouse of an aquifer of confined well to bulk strain tide and showed two methods of the calculation of loading and unloading response ratio of the well level to the earth tides. We took the example of the Yu 01 well, which is near the epicenter of Heze M S 5.9 earthquake, calculated the response rate and loading and unloading response ratio of two kinds of the earth tides of it. The response rate and response ratio before the earthquake had the variation of increase.

The tempo-spatial evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio before strong earthquakes in California of America and its predicting implications

In this paper, the tempo-spatial evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (namely LURR or Y value) before strong earthquakes with magnitude over 6 during 1976~1994 in California of America are studied in detail. The results show that there appear some high-Y regions cohering with the regional tectonic trend in a great area 3~4 years before strong earthquakes and these high-Y regions migrate from the periphery to the epicenter region at a speed of tens of kilometers per year. The load/unload response ratio (LURR) anomalies near the epicenter region characterizes a type of (ascend ? descend( and appear and increase steeply until one year or less before most earthquakes. (Positive( earthquakes form usually a concentration area; in and near which the main shock occurs. We have analyzed the different and same characters of earthquakes between California of American and the Chinese mainland. Basing on these results, we discuss the approach and method how to predict and estimate the three parameters (place, time and magnitude) of a strong earthquake in California of American by applying the characteristics of the LURR.

Physical meaning and prediction efficiency of the load/unload response ratio of rocks in strain-weakening phase before failure

Rock experiment results indicate that the load/unload response ratio (LURR) of rocks expressed via strain energy may have singular or negative value after the stress in the rock reaches its maximum before rock failure or when the rock goes into the strain-weakening phase. The universality of this phenomenon is discussed. Expressed via strain or strain energy and the travel time of P wave, the variation form of the reciprocal of LURR during the process of rock failure preparation is derived. The results show that after a sharp decrease the reciprocal of LURR reaches its minimum when the main fracture of the rock is about to appear. This feature can be taken as an indication that the rock main fracture is impending.

Investigation on the Load/Unload Response Ratio With Coda Q-1 as Response

The load/unload response ratio YQ with the geophysical parameter coda Q-1 of the crust as response is denned in this study.The variation in YQ-1 before and after the Northridge earthquake of January 17,1994(California)has been investigated by using the data of coda Q-1 with frequencies of 1.5,3.0,6.0,12.0,and 24.0 Hz in the Southern California from 1987 to 1994.It can be found that YQ-1 for coda waves with all frequencies,the frequency of 12.0 Hz excluded,ascended to a certain extent prior to the occurrence of the rnainshock and returned to normality after the main shock.

The Random Distribution of the Loading and Unloading Response Ratio Under the Assumptions of Poisson Models

This paper discussed the random distribution of the loading and unloading response ratio（LURR） of different definitions（Y1～Y5）using the assumptions that the earthquakes occurfollowing the Poisson process and their magnitudes obey the Gutenberg-Richter law.Theresults show that Y1～Y5 are quite stable or concentrated when the expected number of eventsin the calculation time window is relatively large（】40）;but when this occurrence ratebecomes very small,Y2～Y5 become quite variable or unstable.That is to say,a high value ofthe LURR can be produced not only from seismicity before a large earthquake,but also from arandom sequence of earthquakes that obeys a Poisson process when the expected number ofevents in the window is too small.To check the influence of randomness in the catalogue tothe LURR,the random distribution of the LURR under Poisson models has been calculated bysimulation.90%,95% and 99% confidence ranges of Y1 and Y3 are given in this paper,which is helpful to quantify the random

Application of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Theory to Predictions of Moderate Earthquakes (7.0>M≥6.0)

The variation in load/unload response ratio before some moderate earthquakes is analyzed based on the theory of the load/unload response ratio.The results show that the load-unload response ratio increases noticeably before moderate earthquakes,and there are three kinds of patterns in which the load/unload response ratio varies and the duration of noticeable increase in load/unload response ratio ranges from half a year to two years.

Variation of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Before the Main Shocks of the Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes

In this paper, the theory of the load/unload response ratio is applied to the prediction of the reservoir-induced earthquakes, and variation of the load/unload response ratio Y preceding the occurrence of main shocks of the reservoir-induced earthquakes in Xinfengjiang, Foziling, Danjiangkou, and Shenwo. The results show that the load/unload response ratio Y rises evidently prior to the main shocks.

The Natural Probability Distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio

In this paper,the Gutenberg-Richter model is used to generate seismic events.The events that satisfy the random distribution are also generated.With those events,the natural probability distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio(LURR),which measures quantitatively the degree of instability of a nonlinear system,is discussed.The study is based on stress energy release,which is chosen as the response of nonlinear system F3.The comparative results from the observation catalogue and generating data are also studied.It is revealed that the natural probability of LURR is mostly stable when the sample number is sufficient.The lower the natural probability of LURR,the more the precursory is information it may contain.The influence of Y3 resulting from the sample number and the magnitude range of events is also discussed.

Local Anomalies of the Load-Unload Response of the Geomagnetic Field to Solar Wind and Earthquakes in Southwest China

Many earthquakes occurred during the period 1994 -1996 in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, Southwest China. Taking the process of the initial main phase recovery phase of the magnetic storm as the process of load-unload response of the geomagnetic field to the solar wind, we have estimated and analyzed the distribution in time and space of the load-unload response ratio P(z) of the storm time disturbance daily variation of the vertical component Z of the geomagnetic field at ten stations in Southwest China. We found that the area with high ratio P(z) was just the area where moderately strong earthquakes would occur from 44 days to 15 months later. The relationship between the high ratio P(z) and weather disasters in both seismic and non-seismic areas is discussed briefly.

2023年2次肃北5级及以上地震的PI和LURR特征回溯性研究

2023年10月24日和12月1日在甘肃省肃北县分别发生M_(S)5.5和M_(S)5.0地震,震中位于祁连山地震带西段,采用图像信息(PI)和加卸载响应比(LURR)探查2次地震孕育过程中应力状态和震后地震活动趋势,为分析祁连山地震带地震活动趋势提供参考。结果显示:①PI热点计算结果显示,肃北地区存在显著的背景应力异常,其幅度指示该区域在未来1年存在发生6级左右地震的可能;②LURR的时空演化特征进一步显示,2023年3月起LURR时序曲线呈显著上升异常变化,且异常空间分布持续向震源区迁移,表明在中短期内有发生强震的可能;③2次地震发生后,震源区LURR异常的时空特征仍呈现持续发展状态,尚未恢复到小于1的正常水平。因此,仍需关注祁连山地震带西段发生6级左右地震的可能。

基于LURR的前震分析方法及其在川滇地区的应用

加卸载响应比(Load-Unload Response Ratio,LURR)是基于岩石介质本构关系动态变化提出的一种中短期地震预测方法,然而,在实践应用中存在构造剪应力方向难以确定的问题.本文以前震为研究对象,发展了一种确定构造剪切应力方向的新思路.当4级以上地震发生后,通过沿该地震滑动方向计算库仑破坏应力(CFS)的变化,判断其固体潮加卸载状态,探测后续强震发生的可能性.以川滇地区(20°N—35°N,96°E—106°E)为研究区域,分析2000年以来所有6级以上地震的4级以上前震的加卸载状态发现,大部分4级以上前震发生在加载阶段.进一步分析近10年来所有4级以上地震的加卸载状态发现,非前震则更易发生在卸载阶段.结合概率增益分析可知,(1)若原震区连续发生至少2个4级以上地震,且均位于固体潮加载过程,后续发生强震的可能性较大;(2)当地震位于卸载过程,原震区发生更强地震的可能性要低于平时的背景地震活动水平.此外,对2022年11月以来的4级以上地震加卸载状态分析推测,川东南、滇南、滇西北地区应力积累水平较高,需要重点关注强震危险性.

模拟引潮力作用下岩石破坏前兆的实验研究——加卸载响应比(LURR)理论和能量加速释放(AER)

大地震前加卸载响应比升高和能量加速释放这2种现象可以用来对地震进行中期预报。同时,加卸载响应比升高和能量加速释放有相同的物理机制。实验对于揭示地壳岩石的变形和破坏规律是非常重要的。在三轴应力条件下进行了岩石破坏声发射实验,声发射技术是研究岩石变形破坏微观机理的重要手段。为了模拟日月引潮力对地球的加载和卸载作用,在一常数加载率的轴向压力作用下,叠加上微小的正弦扰动,力求能够模拟地下岩石复杂的受力状态。实验过程中记录到大量的声发射信息,声发射记录包括声发射发生的时间、空间坐标和振幅,它能够反映岩石试件内部每一个损伤(微裂纹)发生的时间、地点和强度。利用声发射记录系统地分析了岩石试件破坏前能量释放及加卸载响应比的演化情况,结果显示,岩石试件宏观破坏前出现了能量加速释放及加卸载响应比剧增这2种前兆现象,从而对地震临界点理论给予了实验支持,同时也为地震预测提供了实验依据。

加卸载响应比(LURR)理论的实验研究

利用大尺度岩石试件破坏声发射实验 ,对加卸载响应比 (Load UnloadResponseRatio)理论进行了实验研究。实验采用的加载条件力求能够模拟地下岩石的复杂受力过程。在加载过程中 ,岩石试件内部出现的损伤用声发射技术进行了记录。实验数据经过分析之后所得的结论与加卸载响应比理论预测的结果相符合。把加卸载响应比值Y的变化情况与声发射事件定位的过程相对比 ,也可以进一步看出岩石材料内部的损伤发展过程与加卸载响应比Y值的变化具有一致性。而高Y值的异常情况出现 ,又是在材料发生最终破坏之前 ,所以 ,可以用加卸载响应比理论定量地分析岩石试件损伤演化情况 ,从而对岩石材料的破坏及地震做出预测。实验结果再一次验证了加卸载响应比理论。

加卸载响应比(LURR)响应量的研究

加卸载响应比(LURR)理论以响应比值Y来刻画孕震区介质的损伤演化进程。在计算Y值时可选择能量(Benioff应变)、模量(应变)等多种物理量做响应。本文通过理论和实验方法对使用不同响应量时Y值演化趋势的异同进行了研究,结果表明在Y达到峰值之前具有相似地演化过程。

宁强MS5.3地震前的LURR综合分析

2018年9月12日在陕西省汉中市宁强县发生了MS5.3地震,震源深度11 km。基于陕西区域2014—2018年地球物理观测资料,选取地下水位、洞体应变、体应变以及地电场等观测手段的20个观测站点,采用库仑应力触发模型的加卸载响应比计算方法,计算各个站点的加卸载响应比(LURR),对此次地震前的异常信息进行分析讨论。初步获知:(1)LURR异常出现时间集中在2017年底至2018年5月,其中地下水位LURR出现异常变化时间最早,出现极大值的时间也最早,而洞体应变、体应变、地电场LURR异常开始时间较晚,集中在2018年2—5月,极大值出现时间集中在2018年3—7月。(2)从各观测手段的异常变化幅度来看,地下水位的变化幅度最小,洞体应变和体应变的变化幅度最大,地电场的变化幅度居中;从空间分布看,不同测项的异常站点有分布较为集中的现象。(3)周至地电场LURR与优势方位角异常变化在时域上较为同步。(4)总体上,地下水位、洞体应变、体应变以及地电场这几种地球物理观测资料反映的LURR异常演化具有准同步性。这为尝试多种观测资料计算LURR,进行多重物理量相互验证,提高异常信息的可信度等提供参考。

青海玛多M_(S)7.4地震前LURR与OLR短临异常关联性研究

加卸载响应比(LURR)是根据岩石应力-应变关系的动态演化规律提出的地震预测方法。以Benioff应变为响应量,分析青海玛多M_(S)7.4地震前震中及其周边400 km内的LURR异常的演化特征发现,在震前一个月LURR值达到最高值,半个月之后出现高值回落的现象,说明此时孕震区岩石介质已进入屈服阶段的末端。在此基础上,利用NOAA卫星地面长波辐射(OLR)数据,分析高值回落后(5月14—25日)地面长波辐射值的短临异常演化规律。结果显示:震前在空间上仅仅在震中北部出现OLR显著且连续的短临异常变化并呈现向震中扩展的趋势,在时间上整个演化过程经历了初始增温-异常扩展-达到峰值-异常减弱-地震发生-异常消失等6个阶段。LURR和OLR震前短临异常特征说明,回落前的LURR高值反映了岩石介质屈服阶段的结束,OLR在一定程度上可以表征处于临界状态的活动断层的构造应力累积状态,综合研究两种物理参量震前异常演化特征,有助于更准确评估地震活动趋势。

2020年6月26日于田MS6.4地震前和田地电场LURR异常演化特征

加卸载响应比(Load/Unload Response Ratio,LURR)是根据岩石介质本构关系的动态演化特征提出的地震预测方法。采用以固体潮在断层面处引起的库仑破裂应力变化判断加卸载的方法,以地电场观测资料为响应量,计算2020年6月26日新疆于田MS6.4地震周边的和田地电场长、短极距共6个测道的LURR异常时序曲线。结果表明:在于田地震前1~3个月,和田地电场长、短极距的北南向和北西向共4个测道出现了LURR曲线逐渐增大的同步变化;结合2017年九寨沟M S7.0和2016年云龙M S5.0地震的计算结果,基于电磁观测资料的震前LURR异常并非是单一案例,震前都出现了“平静—增大—恢复—发震”的共性特征,这可能反映了孕震区介质因微裂隙的产生和扩展导致流体在裂隙中的运移引起动电效应,进而引起地下电磁场变化。