A Knowledge-based System for the Analysis of the Ability of Paying back Loans

This paper describes the development of a knowledgebased system (KBS) for determining whether or not, and under what conditions, a bank Ioan officer should grant a business loan to a company. The prototype system developed focuses on what is bank loans risks management, how to prevent risk by the analysis of the ability of paying back loans. The paper makes the structural analysis involved in the system's decision situation, the structured situation diagram or model, dependency diagram and the document needed by the KBS prototype system thus are developed. Through testing the samples from loan business, the quality for the analysis of the ability of paying back loans can be effectively evaluated by the KBS prototype system.

Intelligent Decision Support System for Bank Loans Risk Classification

Intelligent Decision Support System (IISS) for Bank Loans Risk Classification (BLRC), based on the way of integration Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Expert System (ES), is proposed. According to the feature of BLRC, the key financial and non-financial factors are analyzed. Meanwhile, ES and Model Base (MB) which contain ANN are designed . The general framework,interaction and integration of the system are given. In addition, how the system realizes BLRC is elucidated in detail.

Designing of Commercial Bank Loans Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Networks

According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loaning corporation. Except the structure description of the system structure the demonstration of attemptive designing is also elaborated.

The Impact of Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Factors on Non-performing Loans in Sri Lankan Commercial Banks

The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans in systemically and non-systemically important commercial banks in Sri Lanka over 10 year’s period from 2004 to 2013.Also,the study examines the impact of civil war that prevailed in the country for 30 years on the ex-post credit risk of the banking sector.The study employed panel data methodology to investigate the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans.Panel unit root test has been undertaken in order to test the stationary of the variables.Hausman test and Wald coefficient restriction test were used to select the appropriate model out of pooled,random,and fixed effect.A dummy variable panel regression model adopted to study the war effect,considering 2009 as the structural year.Findings revealed that return on assets as a proxy for bank efficiency has a significant negative influence,while non-interest income as a proxy for income diversity is positively correlated with non-performing loans of systemically important banks.Both real gross domestic products and lending rates were highly significant in both bank types.On contrary with literature,growth in bank branches is negatively correlated.Public banks do not account for higher level of non-performing loans compared to their private counterpart.Finally,it was identified that civil war had an effect on the level of non-performing loans in commercial banks.The research would have benefited if the analysis is carried out among classified types of loans offered by commercial banks.Future researchers should involve in identifying the most significant contributing loan type to the non-performing loans and its determinants.This study is one of the few studies which have investigated the causes of non-performing loans in the commercial banking industry in Sri Lanka.The analysis of civil war and its impact on non-performing loans is the first study of that nature to be conducted in the context.

Loans to Foreign-Funded Enterprises

With the implementation of the opening policy, the Bank of China(BOC) started lending to foreignfunded enterprises early in the 1980s. At the end of 1993, 50 percent of foreignfunded enterprise had opened accounts with the BOC. BOC has made US dollar loans worth $16.8 billion, and RMB ioans of ￥ 135.55 billion to

World Bank loans help ease Central China's power Supply Shortage

Central China’s power sup-ply will get a major boostfrom the expansion of Henan Province’sYanshi Thermal Power Plant --a project involving $180 million worth of WorldBank loans. Yanshi Plant is situated on thesouth bank of Yellow River, about 30 kmeast of Luoyang Municipality. Once com-pleted at the end of 1995, the plant willboast an installed capacity of 1000 MW,

Guidelines Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits

I. INTRODUCTIONPurpose1.1 The purpose of these Guidelines is to informthose carrying out a project that is financed in wholeor in part by a loan from the International Bank forReconstruction and Development (IBRD) or a creditfrom the International Development Association(IDA), of the arrangements to be made for procur-ing the goods and works (including relatedservices) required for the project. The Loan Agree-ment governs the legal relationships between the Bor-rower and the Bank, and the Guidelines are made ap-plicable to procurement of goods and works for theproject, as provided in the agreement. The rightsand obligations of the Borrower and the providers ofgoods and works for the project are governed by thebidding documents, and by the contracts signed bythe Borrower with the providers of goods and works,and not by these Guidelines or the Loan Agreements.No party other than the parties to the Loan Agree-ment shall derive any rights therefrom or have anyclaim to loan proceeds.

Problems in Development of Micro-credit Loans to Farmers in China and Countermeasures

There are problems of inadequate natural endowment and weak stamina in the development of micro-credit loans to farmers in China. Specifically,existing problems include narrow profit space,serious non-agricultural trend of funds,high dependence on government support,short life cycle,and constantly increasing operating risks. These problems are related to endogenous drawback in design,defect in operating procedure,lagging in relevant policies and measures,and vacancy in risk compensation mechanism.

Predictive Modeling and Expectable Loss Analysis for Borrower Defaults of Mortgage Loans

Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borrowers.For this purpose,a predictive modeling is presented in three stages.In the first stage,occurrence of borrower defaults in a mortgage loans portfolio is modeled through the generalized linear models(GLMs)type regressions for which we specify a logistic distribution for default events.The second stage of modeling develops a survival analysis in order to estimate survival probability and hazard rate functions for individual loans.Ultimately,an expectable loss amount model is presented in the third stage as a function of conditional survival probabilities and corresponding hazard rates at loan levels.Throughout all modeling stages,a large and real data set is used as an empirical analysis case by which detailed interpretations and practical implications of the obtained results are stated.

Corporate fraud and bank loans:Evidence from china

Receiving punishment from regulators for corporate fraud can affect financing contracts between a firm and its bank,as both the firm's credit risk and information risk increase after punishment By focusing on Chinese firms'borrowing behavior after events of corporate fraud,we find that firms'bank loans after punishment are not only significantly lower,but are also less than those for non-fraudulent firms.In addition,loan interest rates after punishment are not only higher than before,but also higher than those for their non-fraudulent counterparts.In addition,we find that corporate fraud indirectly destabilizes the"performance-bank loan"relationship.Our results suggest that corporate fraud negatively affects a firm's ability to source debt financing,which provides new evidence about the economic consequences of fraud.

Political connections, media monitoring and long-term loans

We analyze data on Chinese non-state-listed firms and find that it is easier for firms with political connections to obtain long-term loans with extended debt maturities than it is for firms without political connections. Our investigation indicates that this phenomenon is significantly less common with increased media monitoring. Houston et al.(2011) find strong evidence that the state ownership of media is associated with higher levels of bank corruption in China, but our study shows that, to a certain extent, media monitoring can curb corruption.

Quality of information disclosure, property rights, and bank loans: A bank heterogeneity perspective

Using the context of the financial reform and the development of the non-state sector in China in the past decade, we examine the roles that the quality of information disclosure and property rights play in the allocation of different types of bank credit. We find that foreign banks and policy banks exercise ‘‘financial discrimination," and that local commercial banks, large state- owned commercial banks, national joint-stock banks, local city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks not only exercise financial discrimination but also provide significant ‘‘financial support" to non-state-owned enterprises by providing more lending opportunities and larger loans. However, when enterprises commit information disclosure violations, the local commercial banks, national joint-stock banks, local city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks reverse their credit decisions and begin to exercise financial dis- crimination against non-state-owned enterprises. At the same time, large stateowned commercial banks continue to provide financial support to non-state-owned enterprises. We also find that the quality of the information disclosed by enterprises has a moderating effect rather than an intermediary effect on the relationship between property rights and bank loans. Overall, the results of this paper shine new light on the market-oriented reform of the banking industry, and provide new empirical evidence for the presence of financial discrimination in the supply of bank credit. Our findings also have practical implications for solving the financing difficulties of non-state-owned enterprises.

Non-performing loans(NPLs),liquidity creation,and moral hazard:Case of Chinese banks

This study analyzes the impact of non-performing loans(NPLs)on bank liquidity creation to investigate the existence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.It uses data from 197 listed and unlisted Chinese banks,spanning the period 2005 to 2014.Total liquidity creation by Chinese banks is declining,and NPLs ratio has started to increase following a continuous decline between 2005 and 2012.Using one-step system GMM estimation,fixed and random effect model,and pool data analysis,we find that liquidity creation by Chinese banks does not depend on NPLs ratio,i.e.,we did not find the evidence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.We repeated the analysis for small and large banks and the results of these sub-samples reinforced our findings for the aggregate sample.

Do Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Vary with the Income Levels of Countries?

This paper explores the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans(NPL) in 19 Asian countries(low to high income economies) using the Generalized Method of Moments estimation approach based on the economic data for the period between 1998 and 2015. The categorization of the economies is based on the average gross national income per capita as set by the World Bank.Specifically, the paper aims to evaluate if the determinants of NPL vary with the income levels of the countries. The results indicate that the NPL is strongly influenced by the inflation rate. The effect is,however, negative in the high-income and the middle-income countries and positive in the low-income countries. The GDP per capita has a dynamic negative relationship with the NPL in the high-income and the low-income countries. The remittance has a significant positive association in the high-income and a significant negative association in the low-income countries. Similarly, the unemployment rate has a positive effect on NPL in the middle-income and the low-income countries. With the rise in the official exchange rate, the NPL level increases in the low-income countries. The overall estimation results suggest that the NPL in Asian banking system depend on some key macroeconomic variables,such as unemployment rate, inflation rate, official exchange rate, remittance received and gross domestic product per capita, and these associations vary with the income level of the countries. Therefore,economic level of a country should be carefully considered while formulating credit policy to minimize credit risks in the banking system.

Review of Arbitral Award of Network Loan and Analysis of Construction of Implementation Review Rules

The network arbitration cases arising from the network lending disputes are pouring into the courts in large numbers.It is reported that the network arbitration system of some arbitration institutions even“can accept more than 10,000 cases every day,”while online lending is booming,it has also caused a lot of contradictions and disputes,and traditional dispute resolution methods have failed to effectively respond to the need for efficient and convenient resolution of online lending disputes.This paper tries to study the arbitral award of online loans and proposes the construction of implementation review rules.

Competitive Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Production Loans

The paper shows that there do exist two kinds of steady states equilibria in the overlapping generations models with consumption and production loans, similar to the pure exchange economies examined by Gale （1973）. Furthermore, the local stability properties of these two （kinds of） steady states are also investigated： In the classical case, the golden-rule steady state is stable and the balanced steady state is saddle-point stable; however, in the Samuelson case, the golden-rule steady state is saddle-point stable and the balanced steady state is stable.

Forestry Loans

China's rural,policy bank has issued loans of 40.5 billion yuan ($6 billion)to help the country's Forestry sector.

Tracking the New Loans

In the first half of this year, aggregate new loans had reached a record high of 7.37 trillion yuan ($1.08 trillion). Where has the vast amount of the new loans gone? Has ballooning credit really helped fuel economic growth? Or has it worked to produce capital bubbles? Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities Co. Ltd. based in Beijing, offered her opinion in the Shanghai Securities News. Edited excerpts follow.